Arctic Toolbox: Did 300,000 km2 of ice suddenly melt?

David W says:
August 21, 2010 at 11:42 pm
I really enjoyed reading your comments. I’m interested to hear your thoughts on the possibility of reaching 2008’s value. I was explaining all this to my wife…it’s amazing how different the conclusions people reach given the same data available (though our conclusions tend to agree), and I think it’s a lot of fun. Though I argued against it being likely above, I still see reaching 2008 in the realm of possibility…maybe with a 5% chance or so. In order of likelihood, here are some of the (random) benchmarks as I see them:
1. 5.15e6 km^2
2. 2009 value
3. 5.00e6 km^2
4. 2005 value
5. 5.40e6 km^2
6. 2008 value
7. 5.50e6 km^2 (Steve’s prediction)
On the chopping block – 4.50e6 km^2 (R. Gates’ prediction)
Already eliminated – 2007 value.
Note that a fifth day of low loss on 08/22 would eliminate 4.5e6 from contention and swap my 3/4 and 6/7.
After reading your comments, I took a closer look to see what it would take to match Steve’s prediction. Losing exactly what 2006 (the record low loss in JAXA) did from here on would end this year at 5.41e6 km^2, within 100000 of Steve. Looking closer at this data set, it appeared to reach a minimum on Sept 6, but a couple days later something caused it to have several more days of loss. If we follow 2006 exactly except don’t experience those extra days of loss, we’ll end around 5.55e6 km^2, which would be downright amazing (and highly improbably at this point). Interesting thing is that commenter Walter Dnes predicts a Sept 6 minimum here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/19/cryosphere-today-imagery-back-online/
One final note is that it’s not unreasonable to assume less loss than 2006 is possible. If conditions (thickness, wind, SSTs, air temps) are otherwise identical to 2006, we can expect to lose less extent this year because we start with less. Highly doubtful, I know. 😉
I believe Sea Ice News #19 will be posted later today. I look forward to your comments there too. It will be interesting to see what the hyenas (and to be fair, the less knowledgable sceptics…just hope no one’s silly enough to ask if 2006 can still be topped) have to say also.
-Scott

Excerpts from: Julienne Stroeve on August 21, 2010 at 3:40 pm

I have spent the last few days in Aspen listening to experts in policy and renewables and economics…
——–
(…)But I did learn today that we get 40% of our oil from the Middle East and we import a total of 68% (whereas during the Nixon era it was around 30%). (…)

http://www.eia.doe.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_imports

Most of the Petroleum We Use Is Imported
The United States consumed 19.5 million barrels per day of petroleum products during 2008, making us the world’s largest petroleum consumer. The United States was also third in crude oil production at 5 million barrels per day. But crude oil alone does not constitute all U.S. petroleum supplies.
Altogether, net imports of crude oil and petroleum products (imports minus exports) accounted for 57% of our total petroleum consumption in 2008.
U.S. crude oil imports grew rapidly from mid-20th century until the late 1970s, but fell sharply from 1979 to 1985 because of a fall-off of demand for petroleum products that resulted from economic conditions, conservation, and improved efficiency. After 1985, the upward trend resumed and stood at 9.8 million barrels per day in 2008. Petroleum product imports were 3.1 million barrels per day in 2008. Exports totaled 1.8 million barrels per day in 2008, mainly in the form of distillate fuel oil, petroleum coke, and residual fuel oil.
About Half of U.S. Petroleum Imports Come from the Western Hemisphere
We imported only 18% of our crude oil and petroleum products from the Persian Gulf countries of Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. During 2008, our five biggest suppliers of crude oil and petroleum products were:
* Canada (19.3%)
* Saudi Arabia (11.8%)
* Mexico (10.1%)
* Venezuela (9.2%)
* Nigeria (7.7%)

Looking at the total picture, we net import 57% of our crude oil and petroleum products, not 68%. Imports from Canada were 19.3% of consumption. The 43% of consumption not imported plus 19.3% equals 62.3% of consumption.
See the most current figures available, May 2010:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html
Saudi Arabia is no longer our #2 source, currently we get more crude oil from Canada and Mexico, for total imports those ahead of Saudi Arabia are Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela.
See the 2009 figures:
http://www.eia.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/summary.html
Only 18% of our imports come from Persian Gulf Countries.

Persian Gulf includes = Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates.

Best of luck “homogenizing” that data to say 40% of our (US) oil is from the Middle East.
Will you be listening to any experts on energy who actually know the real petroleum figures?

Steve: since the Comments started Aug 18 I assumed you had Aug 19 Pips available.
But I see you have to write these things days in advance.
Using This link one can plug in the date & see the new flow developing: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/archive/retrievepic.html?filetype=Displacement&year=2010&month=8&day=23
I wrongly accused you of using an OLD map.
>>> I deeply apologize. <<<