SST Anomalies In The Hurricane Nursery

The atmospheric conditions and SST are primed for some strong activity in the Atlantic. There is no denying this. The rest of the world is another story altogether.

And here’s a graph of tropical North Atlantic SST anomalies (0-20N, 78W-20E), using the weekly Reynolds OI.v2 data:
http://i34.tinypic.com/9vjebm.jpg

Hurricane formation is a stochastic process. Prediction is a waste of time.

Sometimes all it takes is for a butterfly to open it’s wings…..
[Isaac’s storm reference – Galveston Hurricane, Sept. 8, 1900]

Bob,
Thanks for the graphs. 2010 is now lower SSTs than the very slow hurricane year of 2006 – which was also forecast as a big season by all the experts.
http://www.batterysavers.com/2006-hurricane-forecast.htm

John A says:
August 12, 2010 at 1:47 am
Randomness/Chaos exists only in the mind of the beholder.

Bob Tisdale says:
August 12, 2010 at 1:28 am
Less than one degree….Is it enough?

Stephan says:
August 12, 2010 at 4:09 am
“One more string to the Zebra?”

The latest depression to potentially be named Diane is down graded per the news this am.

It is very nice to read all the stories , but really nobody is addressing the constantly lowering SST – anomalies in the birth region of the mid-atlantic tropical depressions , where most likely a lower than normal temperature will start to appear in the coming months when the present development from the last winter is going to be continued …. So what are the chances , an intensive hurricane season when the food for these hurricanes is disappearing ?

I know nothing about hurricanes. However, I am surprised that if conditions are right for a very active season, as Dr. Klotzbach suggested, then why do not storms such as Colin, turn into hurricanes? We have just seen a flurry of areas of disorganized showers not turning into named storms. I just find it difficult to understand why, if conditions are ripe for hurricane formation, hurricanes are not forming from disorganized systems which HAVE formed.

Hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) wrt Greening of Sahel
I seem to recall that tropical cyclone initiation is associated with summertime dust transport from Africa over the North Atlantic in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR). The MDR is ‘an area in the tropical North Atlantic where a majority of major hurricanes form, defined as 10-20°N, 20-70°W’.
Thinking about that region reminded me of the Greening of Sahel article, which indicated the sub-Sahara region was both ‘greener’ and expanding north toward Sahara desert areas.
Using the islands at Cape Verde (16 °N) as reference, it looks to me like the Sahel to Sahara greening (12 to 16 °N) is somewhat in line with the MDR (10-20°N) area.
Speculation – Might a continued greening in Sahel affect the summertime dust transport? Or possibly affect the moisture content, frequency or intensity of the ‘waves’ from Africa out over the MDR? And what, if any, affect might that have on tropical cyclone initiation events? Do earlier Sahel droughts correspond with patterns in tropical cyclone activity?
I have not found articles that consider changes in Sahel + MDR + dust, but these links speak to the individual topics.
Greening of the Sahel
http://www.eoearth.org/article/Greening_of_the_Sahel
New evidence for a relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and African dust outbreaks
http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2006/2006GL026408.shtml
Klotzbach and Gray
FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2010
http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

Enneagram says:
August 12, 2010 at 5:41 am
order/certainty Randomness/Chaos exists only in the mind of the beholder.
there, that’s better 😉

Well, when your forecast covers nearly half of the historical range, it certainly increases the likelihood of being “right.” I’d drop it a couple of notches, however, down to 5-12 in order to get into the historical average range, and expect to do pretty well with my forecast this year. Bookmark this. 🙂

Oops! left out the “be”
The next six weeks will be a watch and learn opportunity.
————————
FYI – good site: http://www.micom.net/oops/
Many planes and other things where “oops” is the key word.

Thanks, Tom in Florida, but I am still not satisfied. Surely, Dr Klotzbach is aware of what you write. I would have thought his forecast took into account ALL factors. If there are important factors Dr. Klotzbach cannot know about, then his forecast cannot be very much good.
I still feel that, if Dr. Klotzbach’s forecast has any validity, then there should be a high probability that, once a storm starts developing, it should not just peter out, as all the recent events have. But maybe these are just idle thoughts of an idle fellow.

Well as to that ice island and the catastrophe it is going to cause with sea level rise; I haven’t noticed the water level in my toilet change yet but whent he splash gets here, I’ll let you know.
I’m betting that the 20 foot sea level rise won’t happen this year. How is that big island going to make it around the corner of that Fjord, and get out into the shipping lanes ? It’ll be a whole United States of Deniersland by the time it gets out of that bottlrneck.
Meanwhile if somebody offers you a free ticket on a boat called Titanic; tell them you are off to watch the Hurricane Season in Florida. Come to think of it; the Hurricanes haven’t been doing too well for several seasons now; probably because my Professor friend there retired up North of Atlanta.

“2010 hurricanes are right at the 1944-2005 average of one for the date.”
When are we going to see an approved list of ‘average’ year ranges?
We keep being told that 30 consecutive data years is necessary for a valid ‘average’ but many ‘scientists’ seem to use a variety of time periods both shorter and longer than this. Is this only because it fits their meme?
If there are no standards there is chaos and perhaps that is why so many people are convinced (or confused) one way or the other regarding AGW.
It would not appear that any of the international bodies (e.g., WMO, IPCC, ISO) involved in this debate are setting any baselines for measurements, comparisons and the like.
Personally, I think that 30 years is far too short to see all of the patterns possible in our climates and anyone using such a short period should be making copious declarations that their results, hypotheses, conjectures, etc have a large margin of error.

From the Monthly Weather Review, August, 1903
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/lib1/nhclib/mwreviews/1903.pdf
1. The hurricanes in August are formed, generally to the eastward, very near the Cape Verde Islands. At first they move westward and a little northward, and in the neighborhood of the Windward Islands, pursue a west-northwest direction. The recurve is generally effected by these hurricanes within a zone between the meridians of New Orleans and Puerto Plata, and between 29 to 33 of north latitude.
2. The hurricanes of September originate between Barbados and St. Thomas. The recurve ia generally effected between the meridians of Cape Masi (74 W.) and the State of Texas,between the 27 and 29 of north latitude.
3. The hurricanes of the first decade of October sometimes form in the Windward Islands, or in the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea. These recurve between 23 and 26 of north latitude, in a zone limited by the meridians of Matanzas (82 W.) oud Cape Catoche (88 W.) They come very close to Cuba pass through the western provinces, or the Yucatan Channel.

Ian W says:
August 12, 2010 at 6:36 am
Perhaps we are seeing a change in ocean and atmospheric behavior toward behavior that has not been seen for more than a century. All the clever little statistical tools like ‘Nino 3.4′ and such metrics were useful during the early part of the relatively predictable satellite era but the chaotic climate system is perhaps ponderously moving out of that eddy into a different state. All the clever statistical pattern matching may suddenly cease to work. This could explain the failure of the UK Met Office to get things right over the last few years.
====================================
Well said.
As always, too, Goddard is onto something.
Something seems to be overwhelming the signal here.
Epic cooling in the Pacific.
We notice the temps above 80 degrees north are falling below freezing weeks before normal.
And I notice the 540 thickness is starting to show up in south central Canada over the next few days…the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF all showing it.
However, the huge upper level low over the Azores that has been blasting the Atlantic with shear….seems to be kicking out.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/neatl/flash-wv.html
Time will tell if it will be replaced with that subtropical ridge shown on Steve’s map.
And the common sense approach of studying patterns of either intensification [which we have not seen in along time] and patterns of decay and petering out [which we have seen alot lately] has ALOT OF MERIT.
On a local level, we were under a very high risk for severe thunderstorms today….but there must been a bubble of stable air above us.
You could watch the petering out, with each storm, on radar.
So regardless of the dire forecasts, they all ended in a whimper.
Much like the hurricane season so far.
But remember, the synoptic setup favorable for them, can change very quickly.
We’ll see. As a coastal resident, I hope Steve’s instincts are correct!
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

Enneagram says:
August 12, 2010 at 5:41 am

Randomness/Chaos exists only in the mind of the beholder.

When the frequency of hurricanes in any given year cannot be distinguished from a stochastic process (ie a Poisson distribution) then one is entitled to say “prediction is a waste of time”.

If the Spanish were building another Armada this year, I’d bet on the Brits to do what they did last time (along with a lot of help from Mother Nature) . Rememeber Spain, don’t cut your anchors the way you did last time.