By Steve Goddard
Thanks to Dr Klotzbach for his excellent post describing his thinking behind the CSU hurricane forecast.
A number of readers asked about SSTs in the hurricane nursery. So I took the most recent Unisys SST anomaly map, removed all colors between -0.5°C and +0.5°C, and overlaid the most recent tropical storm map on it.
Note that the only region (1) with any chance of turning into a hurricane is located in water that is essentially normal (+/- 0.5°C) temperature.
NOAA describes it as follows :
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT…AND ANY INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE…70 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.
2010 hurricanes are right at the 1944-2005 average of one for the date. There have been years (like 1969) which started slow but took off in mid-August. We will know soon if 2010 will turn into of those years.
Afternoon update: region 1 has been downgraded.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON…AND DEVELOPMENT APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE…50
PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER