By Steve Goddard
I need help from the readers to determine if 2010 will finish ahead or below 2005 – the red line in the DMI graph.
2010 is currently tracking just below 2005, but note there was a downwards dip in mid-September, 2005. What caused this?
The PIPS video below shows what happened in September, 2005.
In mid-September, strong winds started blowing off the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, which compressed the ice towards the North Pole. This caused the dip seen in the DMI graph.
The images below show the current date in 2005 and 2010 respectively. Note that 2005 had a lot of thin/low concentration ice in the Laptev/Kara Seas which was vulnerable to being blown around by the wind in September. The ice is less extensive, but thicker in that region in 2010.
What do you think? Will 2010 beat 2005? Please explain your reasoning.
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stevengoddard says:
August 12, 2010 at 5:16 am
EFS_Junior
Roger Pielke Sr. did a study last year, showing no change in the length of the summer melt season over the last 30 years.
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Markus et al. (2009) did a study that shows the length of the melt season is increasing, which was dominated by later freeze up. I haven’t read the Pielke paper. Steve, do you have a link to that one?
Steve says
“75% of the ice is fragmented every summer. Concentration has been higher than normal this year.”
Really? Personally I’ve never seen anything like this. What I have seen is that every year more of the ice breaks up in the centre with more open water around it. I’ve checked back through the cryosphere today archive and nothing like this is recorded in those archives.
I’d say that it will be interesting to continue this converstation but I have a horrible feeling that when the Arctic is open water all summer this same blog will be discussing whether there is more or less ice in Novermber and whether it will or won’t break a record……..
I guess it’s really all about your point of view.
Julienne,
The study was done by Roger Pielke Sr. at CU and William Chapman at UIUC.
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2008/12/04/are-there-long-term-trends-in-the-start-of-freeze-up-and-melt-of-arctic-sea-ice/
stevengoddard says:
August 12, 2010 at 9:56 am
Hi Steve, I only get a graph with that link. I was looking for “spreadsheet”-like data that I can analyze just like I do with the extent data. I’m I just missing the obvious?
-Scott
bob says:
August 12, 2010 at 9:44 am
This approach is similar to what I did above in terms of using current extents to forecast the final minimum by using past extents from the same day. For the 08/11 data, the predicted extent is 5.05e6 km^2. The problem is, the R^2 for this correlation currently stands at 0.918 and therefore the uncertainty (95% confidence) is +/- 4.57e6 km^2. Wait another week and the R^2 will be a much more robust 0.976, although uncertainties will still be a couple million km^2. I do think the uncertainty I calculate is overestimated due to only have 6 degrees of freedom on the regression, however.
-Scott
Village Idiot,
You did not provide proof for your claim. I have no reason to believe it now.
You need to be careful because people who do not provide proof for their claims after a time just become background noise.
stevengoddard says:
August 12, 2010 at 4:47 am
DMI shows 2010 within a whisper of 2005 this morning
Steven Goddard,
Do you think it has a chance to go higher than 2006?
Julienne Stroeve says:
August 12, 2010 at 11:53 am
Markus et al. (2009) did a study that shows the length of the melt season is increasing, which was dominated by later freeze up
What time period does that study cover?
Marcia, Marcia
I don’t think 2010 will beat 2006.
NeilT
The CT archives have been down for weeks.
stevengoddard says:
August 12, 2010 at 4:47 am
DMI shows 2010 within a whisper of 2005 this morning.
Huh. No kidding. Wow!
The only thing I want from JAXA (15%) is to be higher than 2009. The only thing I want (as of now) from DMi (30%) is to pass 2006 into #1. 🙂
Is 2010 going to wear the daddy pants? Is PIOMAS going to cry? Is that what’s going to happen, PIOMAS is going to cry? 😉
Steven Goddard
no daddy pants for 2010?
I would go with your view on this over mine Steven Goddard. You obviously know far more about this than me. I’m just thinking of the possibility.
R. Gates says:
August 12, 2010 at 8:43 am
stevengoddard says:
August 12, 2010 at 7:09 am
“Area is dropping slower than extent. Your analysis is flawed.”
______
When you have divergence, area does drop slower than extent, and neither of them give a good metric for melt rates.
=================
Melt rates are falling, the sun is setting, temps are dropping, and it appears there will not be a major “flush” of the ice this year.
The thin ice already melted. Below average temps all year.
All the heat is being dissipated in Russia, and Chicago (and east coast).
2010 will eclipse 2006!
Went to Cryosphere’s “animation”.
It’s rather interesting. Between 7/10 and 8/04, you can notice a dramatic increase in rate of ice melt. From that point on, it seems to halt, and in some places even seems to begin to recover.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CT/animate.arctic.color.0.html
stevengoddard says:
August 12, 2010 at 11:31 am
George E. Smith
You can always tell how valuable a data source is by how vociferously AAGW types go after it.
_____________________________________________________________
Ergo, all your vociferous posts with respect to PIOMAS. And the mean global temperature record. To name just two examples.
EFS_Junior
Sticking up for PIOMAS?
You might as well tie yourself to a boat anchor.
It didn’t do my blood pressure a lot of good hearing the BBC, on the ‘Today’ programme, talking about the warming of the Arctic and the ‘melting’ of the Greenland glacier recently. Grrr. I turned off in disgust.
I froze while I was out last night looking at the Perseids. I’ve needed blankets (yes, plural) on my bed and haven’t even got out the fans this summer, much less used the AC. This is supposed to be high summer…it feels like autumn. This is in middle SW England.
Heatwave? Definitely not.
If the current cooling trend continues, The ice will reach an early minimum which is still beneath the 2005 minimum at that point in time but it will then turn and begin regrowth that will place it well above the 2005 minimum.
Scott: Numeric Data from JAXA: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv = NUMERIC EXTENT
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008 AREA Anomaly & Area & Area Mean (unlabeled)
… everyone else is coy …
Steve … did you give an OUTDATED PIOMAS CHART — Tsk Tsk, cherry picking again (they forecast a day in advance)
… gee, all 3 days after have Arctic-Dipole-like Fram Strait ICE Export.
Possibly this will show up as 100K melts shortly … or maybe it has, & this is all it gets. 2008 may soon Gain.
30 km-a-day =FAST motion takes 50 days for the West basin Ice to reach the Exit.
But the DIPOLE is back for at least the next 9 days.
AO index Daily http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html
FORECASTS : 10day EMMCF pick NHemisphere http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html
9-DAY http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/9panel/gfsx_500p_9panel_nhem.html
Comparing _______2007___ to___ 2010_____&____2009/08__
Ahead Aug12____+ 720,412p=11%__no__behind_2010:_170K_86K
Ahead Aug 12 AREA 332,220=8%___no__behind/ahead 264 K 127 K
RISK : net -4.3% = 5.7 but -323,220 area ~8%
Daily: ___________2007___ to___ 2010__&__(2009__2010
Aug10-11_______ -59,219 _____ -67,969____(-67,500__52,343
Aug11-12_______ -47,500 _____ -64,119p___(-56,094__69,063
Aug12-13_______ -44,875 _____ – ?___? ___(-87,656__70,635
Aug13-14_______ -27,406 _____ – ?___? ___(-49,219__60,781
Aug14-15_______ -40,469 _____ – ?___? ___(-21,875__86,969
Charles Wilson
How is your 1 million km^2 prediction working out?
Charles Wilson says:
August 13, 2010 at 7:15 am
Thanks for the link to the Cryosphere area data…I didn’t have that previously. I will try to incorporate that into my current spreadsheet to improve the precision and accuracy of its predictions.
As to your 1e6 km^2 prediction, my spreadsheet as of the 8/12 JAXA data still has it as a possibility. It’s currently using present extent to predict a final extent of 5.03e6 +/- 4.29e6 km^2 (95% confidence interval). However, it is losing 2e5 to 3e5 off of its uncertainty daily, so once the 8/13 data posts I imagine your prediction will be knocked out of the 95% confidence interval. Practically, I’d say it’s already knocked out of contention because much of the high uncertainty comes from only have 8 years of JAXA data to work with.
-Scott
Steve said:
DMI is the best source because they measure 30% concentration ice, which is more stable and filters out high frequency noise.
Well, DMI uses dynamic tie-points to measure sea ice concentration and adjusts them every month. On top the set of tie points changed 2006. Comparing 2005 and 2010 is comparing apples and oranges. Btw. the resolution of the DMI concentration data is somewhat low. Did you read the documentation?
Marcia, Marcia says:
August 12, 2010 at 5:42 pm
Julienne Stroeve says:
August 12, 2010 at 11:53 am
Markus et al. (2009) did a study that shows the length of the melt season is increasing, which was dominated by later freeze up
What time period does that study cover?
——————
1979-2008
@Scott
It’s currently using present extent to predict a final extent of 5.03e6 +/- 4.29e6 km^2 (95% confidence interval).
… how can your error bars allow a forecast minimum of >= 6.14e6 km^2 given that that’s the current value? Is time about to reverse?