Joe writes to me today to tell me he’s started a weekly sea ice video report. He’s following our weekly Sea Ice News and Sea Ice Page lead, and even prominently referencing WUWT during his broadcast. Good for him, because this “death spiral watch” is of intense interest wordwide. Two years of sea ice recovery is interesting, but third year in a row is a whole new ball game.
Our one stop shopping Sea Ice Page has quickly become a world wide favorite, and Joe uses some of the graphics offered there.
Joe is now in agreement with Steve Goddard and me on the forecast. We’ll see how it pans out this coming September, last September we hit minimum at 09/13/2009 with a minimum of 5, 249, 844 km2 (source here)
To watch the AccuWeather broadcast go to:
http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj
BTW I should add the Joe, being of Italian descent also says in his email he was being cute with “Antnee” used the term “cumare” like some would use the word “com-padre”. Of course I’m sure those who have a long standing dislike of me will choose their own wise guy definition.
The links not working, try
http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj
REPLY: Thanks. Odd, that link they gave was from the WordPress “share this” button – Anthony
I wonder if you are the reason why the 1 to 6 day ice drift forecast link is unavailable? Did we load up their bandwidth or whatever you call it? I haven’t been able to get a daily drift forecast for days. In fact not since I suggested you add it to the sea ice page.
http://www.aari.nw.ru/clgmi/forecast/fc_2.html
And while I am typing this, I wanted to add, I too am fascinated with day to day and other short term weather/ice pattern events. Except for when I had plans to go fishing and am stuck in my house riding out a series of thunderstorms. I was all ready to go grasshopping followed by intense fishing. So sometimes I really do not like short term weather pattern events at all. No not at all.
There are some interesting developments up there near the Arctic Circle just north of Iceland in the Tjörnes fracture zone. One area has had about 20 to 30 earthquakes in the last 48 hours with a couple at about registering 3.
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/tjornes-small/
The place should be called Shakeland not Iceland given the number of quakes they have each day up there.
Gotta love that guy.
Cold winter coming then. Better buy a few sledges for the kids in this warmest ‘evah’ year.
Phil
“BTW I should add the Joe, being of Italian descent also says in his email he was being cute with “Antnee” used the term “cumare” like some would use the word “com-padre”. ”
Just means you are more than just a good friend! Maybe a few episodes of the Sopranos will enlighten you as to the meaning of “Cumare”?
lol
Sob. Baby Ice, lookin’ all grown up.
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Had a good look at the Climate Forecast models, and what Joe was saying.
Some serious bad cold for the Arctic, and I hope that it stays up there.
Nice one Joe, good props to WUWT from a ‘bit of a character’. 🙂
hey…Roy Spencer had an update about the quickly dropping Nina 3.4 and the sea surface temperatures dropping back on June 18th….seeing as it has been 38 days…i would LOVE an update on that. is that trend downward continuing or has it leveled off earlier than we thought?
I spent some time listening to Joe’s videos this evening. On the 9th he started his vblog with a disclaimer that his views on global warming were his own, and that it is unfortunate that some alarmists are so intolerant that they want dissenting voices shut down. Sounds like some folks tried to get Joe in trouble with Accuweather management, the typical “take him down or I’m gonna…” it seems like.
Things I learned at my Aunt’s knee, and other low joints.
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Actually “compadre” should be “compare” (=”as familiar as one’s children’s godfather”), and “cumare” should be “comare“. That is, the female “compare”
Is this the start of “Watts up with Brokeback Mountain” or what 😎
Like Joe says, a picture is worth a 1,000 words:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/seaice.anomaly.Ant_arctic.jpg
When Anomalies collide.
I don’t make this stuff up either. I just process the images.
Meanwhile, Sen. John Kerry is predicting an “ice-free Arctic” in “5 or 10 years”:
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/69845
good to see this!!
i think “Gavin” won’t be on board. (i don’t know if it’s that Gavin)
I see a lot of clear skies over the Arctic in the satellite images (and surface photos linked). All that sun… I really do expect to break 2007′s record this year.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/25/ice-dancing/#comment-417353
But how could it be that Gavin since this one is saying it’s the sun and not co2?
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
July 26, 2010 at 4:33 pm
good to see this!!
i think “Gavin” won’t be on board. (i don’t know if it’s that Gavin)
I see a lot of clear skies over the Arctic in the satellite images (and surface photos linked). All that sun… I really do expect to break 2007′s record this year.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/25/ice-dancing/#comment-417353
But how could it be that Gavin since this one is saying it’s the sun and not co2?”
Its such a shame that Joe Romm shutdown comments on his sea ice thread. The predictions of doom and gloom back in May on that thread seem hilarious now. Havent seen much from him in July on the subject.
Nobody beats the Rev!
Joe has been saying a few things recently about “Drastic” cooling to come. See P. Gosselin’s blog and links here.
So far Joe has been right about the recent heatwave but he also said words to the effect that the debate will soon be over.
“The coming drop of global temperatures over the next year, to levels not seen since the 1990s, should put to an end to the AGW argument for good except for the most radical elements. ” click
Brokeback Mountain
I once saw an ad for it that read, “The critics are raving!”
(I figured that would explain it.)
Karl Maki says:
July 26, 2010 at 4:32 pm
Meanwhile, Sen. John Kerry is predicting an “ice-free Arctic” in “5 or 10 years”:
That reminds me didn’t Gore say 2013? The clocks ticking on the man who says the earth’s mantle is “several million degrees” while heating his mansion using only six fireplaces and ultra ‘green’ appearance. I would laugh is this wasn’t a sly, moneymaking scam.
Yep, Jimbo @ 4:51 PM, and he’s just talking about the cooling concatenations of the oceanic oscillations. Wait’ll the Eddy Minimum comes with the Cheshire Sun grinning cooly.
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I see a shortcut !!! 🙂
“We’ll see how it pans out this coming September…”
I’ll be up late each and every night
Searching and reading on Antnee’s site
Check back in September
Check back when the melt is through
Here we are saying goodbye in the springtime
Sun, wind, and currents are melting ice away
Looks like thick ice but remember
There is warming in the summer midnight sun
Will I see ice in September
Or have none when the melt is done?
Counting the pixels I’ll hope for cold
Wond’ring if PIPS2 is oversold
Have a good melt but remember
Cloudy weather saves ice by the megaton
Will I see ice in September
Or lose it to the summer sun?
rbateman says:
July 26, 2010 at 4:00 pm
Had a good look at the Climate Forecast models, and what Joe was saying.
Some serious bad cold for the Arctic, and I hope that it stays up there.
It looks like La Nina is forming.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/eqp/sst30d.gif
&
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gifani/sst_ani_200.gif
&
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycom1-12/navo/equpacsst_nowcast_anim30d.gif
&
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.gif
…..
La Nina has this type of pattern
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/globalimpact/temp_precip/images/LaNinaImpacts_djf.jpg
&
bottom half:
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/images/content/209479main_elnino1_080128_HI.jpg
….
So it looks like a cold winter for much of the United States. Montana to Kansas to Michigan should get particularly cold.
…..
short video from NASA on current La Nina:
http://learners.gsfc.nasa.gov/mediaviewer/LaNinaPeaks/
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
p.s. everything I need to know about La Nina/El Nino I learned from WUWT. 🙂
markinaustin writes “I would LOVE an update on that. is that trend downward continuing or has it leveled off earlier than we thought?”
I am no expert, but take a look at
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+001
and see if it helps.
I could be wrong but….
last September we hit minimum at 09/13/2010
Would not 09/13/09 be more appropriate for last September?
REPLY: Heh, habit of writing 2010 on too many things, fixed thanks. – Anthony
Still betting on near normal or 1SD minimum based on PREVIOUS concentrations. Expect a sharp flattening out in coming days. lol
Pretty neat.
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
July 26, 2010 at 5:49 pm
The latest value for the Nino 3.4 index is -0.79
Wonderfully clear and lucid reporting. Thank you for that, Anthony!
But that doesn’t change the fact we need to ban CO2 immediately to “save the Earth” and bring “social justice” and “profits to Al Gore and company”.
All good stuff and don’t want to be a party pooper.
But I’d still like to see how the other big thermaggedonist icon is shaping up.
The tropical troposphere hot spot.
Anyone seen it lately?
A solid scientist ahead of the pack who knows what he’s talking about, and a courageous independent with character and wit, Joe rules the weather waves!
This is a useful read regarding Sea Ice variation:
http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm
One of the good things about this guy is that he is upfront about what his predictions are. Whether he’s right 100% of the time (and almost no-one is) or not, he puts his predictions up for public consumption so that, when the data comes in, it will be clear whether he knows something about climate/ice/snow or not.
I do think, though, that temperature plots of 70 – 80N might be as interesting as 80N+ to see how arctic ice will progress. Whether such data is also around I don’t know, but if people could see connections between what happens at time A at the pole and things which happen either before or after at different latitudes, then some understanding and sense might start to be brought to bear about how our climate system integrates as a whole.
Anyone out there collating that sort of thing?
I think this could be a very interesting La Nina event as so many other NH weather systems are working in concert to generate another severe winter. The sun is also in quiet mode.
(Thanks Jimbo)
If Joe says the ice is gonna end up near last year, then chances are pretty high that it will – basta. Forget a new record. The once a week sea ice report is good for making the public aware of the Arctic reality. I’m glad Joe is bringing sanity to the public – unlike some big elected officials, like Kerry, who really ought to know better.
But for the climate bloggers the mesaage is not what the ice does every week, rather what it does over the years. This weekly cheering is like checking the grass every 10 minutes to see how it’s growing. The real crystal ball is the ENSO and the Atlantic one…forgot the name…whatever…
Hey Antnee, don’t laugh at Italian-American meteorologists unless you want a polar bear’s head in your bed. Know what I’m sayin’ ?
(And I am of Italian descent, just so’s you know)
Don’t forget that the Sicilian dialects often replace the “o” with the “u” so the Italian “compare” becomes “cumpare” (often pronounced “cumbare”) and “comare” becomes “cumare”
Cryosphere’s compare tool and archives seem to no longer be where they were, or something. I wonder if that has anything to do with you and Werme using them for the sea ice page?
DMI = IARC-JAXA, NSIDC = NOAA, jumbling up extent, area and ice thickness. I think even I know more about Arctic sea ice than Bastardi.
Good thing for him that a La Niña is developing. Should offer him months of delaying fun. After that comes another El Niño with a more active sun than during this last one which boosted global temperatures almost as high or higher (depending on dataset) than the Super El Niño of 1998.
Two years of sea ice recovery is interesting, but third year in a row is a whole new ball game.
last September we hit minimum at 09/13/2009 with a minimum of 5, 249, 844 km2
I agree – if the minimum this year is lower than last years, the “two years of sea ice recovery” becomes just an interesting footnote to history.
I’ll tell my grandkids how some people got excited about them…
Anu says:
July 27, 2010 at 2:11 pm
It’s called hope. The world grows hopeful, seeing a light at the end of the dark & foreboding tunnel of Cap & Trade Monster Tax plus the oppressive dogma of AGW. It’s also the underdog story, as Bastardi and others have called the Ginormous GCM’s out on the rug of public opinion. Whom will win: Joe vs Godzilla.
An American story if there ever was one.
Haven’t heard much from Piers in a while.
Oh, I dunno, you could have 4 years out of 5 up for twenty years and never have 3 in a row up. I do believe it will be up from last year, but if it is just a fraction down, that doesn’t overly dismay me. Halts momentum for the “recovery” argument? Clearly. But I’d still want to see 2011 –three out of four “up” would still be pretty good.
Anu says:
July 27, 2010 at 2:11 pm
Two years of sea ice recovery is interesting, but third year in a row is a whole new ball game.
last September we hit minimum at 09/13/2009 with a minimum of 5, 249, 844 km2
I agree – if the minimum this year is lower than last years, the “two years of sea ice recovery” becomes just an interesting footnote to history.
I’ll tell my grandkids how some people got excited about them…”
If 1 years results negates the “recovery” argument then I assume you also agree that the past 3 years don’t support the “death spiral” argument.
Annual comparisons of September average sea ice extents, starting with 1999->2000, then 2000->2001, etc:
Up, up, down, up, down, down, up, down, up, up.
Six ups, four downs.
Sounds like the ice is recovering, no ?
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20091005_Figure3.png
No.
I agree 2011 will be an interesting summer – Cryosat-2 should be giving us data by then. I think every year, the scientific data available on the Web becomes better, and scientific institutions spend a little more time bothering to explain things to casual websurfers. I especially liked the Google Earth animations that NSIDC worked up a few months ago – much more 21st Century than those tiny 2D plots some institutions churn out, as though it were still 1988. I also read about gliders under the Arctic sea ice, like Argo floats but more autonomous and mobile – I’d like to see some of that data by next summers melt.
FWIW, the JAXA AMSR-E Arctic Sea Ice Extent for July 27th just came out and 2010 has passed 2009. If this is revised later (often it’s revised upwards by ~17,000 sq-km) 2010 will have about a 1/2 day lead. Obviously, this lead could evaporate (pun intended), but it’s encouraging for now.
And how is the sea ice area doing ?
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Area.png
Here is funny weatherman Bastardi’s prediction of cooling:
http://www.accuweather.com/video/110914873001/more-on-the-coming-cooling.asp
Most of the serious skeptics blogging at Accuweather’s climate change blog, have been banned. I wonder how much longer JB will be able to express contrary opinion. The blog seems to have be hijacked by the AGW convinced moderation.
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=ea6a74a9c6ff8d8f8ff26eab9fb1a780&showforum=47
A valuable forum has been degraded. Can it’s decline be reversed.
I understand the Italian birthrate is continuing to fall (in Italy), this trend is more significant than the weather in the Arctic. As Italy goes, so goes the World, please remember that. Well, the Western World. We need to find out what their problem is and fix it fast. Hope it has nothing to do with the weather. If so, we’ll really have to work fast. I hear it hasn’t changed much in thousands of years.
Joe B is one of the best in the business as seeing long term trends in weather and giving the public the explanation as to why. La Nina is indeed coming on and will have serious repercussions for people in the Western part of the US this coming winter. However the east, and especially the south, will likely see much above normal temperatures this coming winter while Alaska and the Northwest will suffer numbing cold. While weather and climate are different, long term weather patterns have a huge influence on our climate and the cold phase of the PDO (which has already begun) and the oncoming cold phase of the AMO will combine to make talk of Global Warming seem pretty silly in the next 5-20 years to come.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/ithi.html
I’m surprised PIPs isn’t on the Arctic Sea Ice page. I looked it up, and found it interesting that the thick (red) areas I was wondering about in late June are gone. In fact, only a tiny area of yellow left now. Will we get a PIPs update someday?
Hi,
my last forecast is:
Minimum 6028740 km^2 on 4th September.