Example Of Media Overstatement
Guest post by Dr. Roger Pielke Sr.
There are quite a few examples of overstatements and errors in media reports on climate science (and in the associated research paper). Today, I present one example that appears in a UCAR press release
Indian Ocean sea level rise threatens coastal areas
‘The key player in the process is the Indo-Pacific warm pool, an enormous, bathtub-shaped area spanning a region of the tropical oceans from the east coast of Africa to the International Date Line in the Pacific. The warm pool has heated by about 1 degree Fahrenheit, or 0.5 degrees Celsius, in the past 50 years, primarily because of human-generated emissions in greenhouses gases.”
The attribution of the positive temperature anomalies “primarily because of human-generated emissions in greenhouses gases” ignores research that documents in the peer reviewed literature a much more complicated role of human and natural climate forcings and feedbacks in affecting all aspects of the climate system (e.g. see and see).
The current sea surface temperature anomalies are presented below. The attribution of the Indo-Pacific warm pool to human-generated emissions in greenhouse gases without commenting on the reasons for the cooler than average anomalies (e.g. see the developing La Nina and the cool south Atlantic Ocean) illustrates how this UCAR study has selectively chosen data that fits their preconceived assumptions of climate.
From http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html [see also a larger view of the globe at http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.7.15.2010.gif]
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Let’s see, 50 years… that would be from the bottom of the cool PDO cycle to just beyond the recent warm PDO.
Nothing quite like picking the endpoints to match your conclusion.
There needs to be a title for items like this, something like “Weather is not climate.”
Perhaps “Regional anomalies are not globally significant.”
It is particularly nice of them to first point out in the first paragraph that sea levels are rising unevenly…as if to suggest that sea levels everywhere in the Indian Ocean are rising. At least they concede later in the press release that there really is a compensation factor at play.
It is very comforted however, that the research team “used several sophisticated ocean and climate models.” I am glad those models were able to tell them exactly how the Hadley and Walker circulations impacted sea level changes in the past without any uncertainty, so they could come to their conclusion about the human parasite’s threat to itself.
There is a major “warming” activity which I suspect is being overlooked on all sides. Almost all the western side gulf states use the Persian Gulf as a “heat exchanger” for power generation activities and now it is also being used as a heat sink for very large air conditioning plants which draw in cool water to “chill” the air and dump it back into the gulf at a much higher temperature.
Corals, sea life and flora in the vacinity of these plants is already dying off creating undersea deserts, but exactly what the longterm effect of this is likely to be is, I suspect, unknown. I am told by an unverifiable source, that average sea temperatures in the Gulf have risen by “about a degree”. I also note with interest that the Eco-terrorists still bash the west and make no mention at all of the activities in the Middle East and Far East which are dumping far more of the gases and engaging in other “warming” projects. Could there be a pecuniary interest at work here? Some funding to these organisations to ensure they look the other way?
“Nothing quite like picking the endpoints to match your conclusion“…
Excellent call!
“The warm pool has heated by about 1 degree Fahrenheit, or 0.5 degrees Celsius, in the past 50 years, primarily because of human-generated emissions of greenhouses gases.”
Why are we still paying for this kind of garbage?
Here’s what has actually happened.
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/07/21/nailing-the-solar-activity-global-temperature-divergence-lie/
So as long as you put ‘it’s global warming’ then no form of evidence is needed?
I wonder if the national lottery will accept I’ve won without a ticket?
“Indian Ocean sea levels are rising unevenly and threatening residents in some densely populated coastal areas,”
Err what?
Where is the data supporting this preposterous statement?
I think Nature geoscience need to re-read their own articles before publishing.
Could it be that they have omitted the reason why oceans warm…..forgotten about the big yellow orb in the sky?
Man’s emissions of CO2 warming the Indian Ocean by 0.5 degrees C in past 50 years? ……….. I’d like to see the experiment which proves that hypothesis.
Sorry I just don’t see it, obviously I’ll have to change the types of hallucinatory drugs I’m currently using.
Maybe they haven’t heard of “gravity”… that indomitable force that brings the surface of liquids to the same elevation if given enough time. Certainly, 50 years would be sufficient; nay, 50 weeks would be sufficient, even on a body of liquid the size of the “Indo-Pacific warm pool.”
Yeah, but that Mercator Projection looks really, well, WOW!, what with the dark grey landmasses and black ice caps that enhance the value contrast between those areas and the bright orange in the image; and the choice of the primary blue and the orange to create the maximum hue intensity contrast.
We are primarily visual creatures. This image was created by an artist who knows how to use principles of color contrast to maximize the perception of extremes. An argument can be made that it is visual propaganda.
In a recent essay “Communicating Scientific Findings”, I attempted to address this issue by comparing press releases to paper abstracts. (retreadresources.com/blog)
“I think and maybe it is only me that thinks this way, but I think if you are following the scientific method in doing your research, the same standards and rules apply to your conclusions, predictions, prognostications, informed scientific opinions and press releases. …. To allow anything less is to mislead, misrepresent and misinform. This does a disservice to your science, your reputation and to the community at large. I am sure it is thought to bolster their grant funding position and status among the orthodox thinking. Not an excuse, just a reason.”
That of course applies to researchers attempting to fit data into ideological frameworks instead of falsifying hypothesis. This kind of thing reduces scientists to propagandists and sophists, roles better played by politicians and demigods.
“Indian Ocean sea levels are rising unevenly”
Well no
The land is rising and sinking unevenly.
The India plate is crashing into the Eurasia plate, India is sinking into the mantle.
The Jason 2 satellite is recording a -5.9 mm/year decline in Indian Ocean sea levels over the last two years.
http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/images/news/indic/msl/MSL_Serie_J2_Indian_IB_RWT_NoGIA_Adjust.png
The Indian Ocean responds to and lags behind the ENSO by 1 to 2 years.
It will be quite interesting to see, TB, what the L&P Effect will have on your analysis.
==========
75% of the people in China and India heat with wood, coal, charcoal or other waste.
I suspect it is ATV’s and Jet Skis that are much worse in America.
Dr. Pielke,
Two questions come to mind. Why does the warm pool exist in the first place, and why would “global” warming selectively cause that too warm more than other areas? I thought that CO2 would cause more warming at the poles.
There is a fault line near this area (I think) where the two plates rubbing together actually drags the plates downward. The appearance on land is that the water level is rising. This fault line causes tsunamis when the tension in the plates is releases and the plates pop back up. I know I’m not citing anything but going from memory of the discovery channel show on tsunamis. Point being I wonder if this effect has more to do with sea level rise than alleged AGW
Better take a look to the link given by Tallbloke above, because just seeing that burning earth makes me mad. WUWT?
See above.
Just to show this is like changing sides, from skeptics’ to believers’. Can’t believe it!
“…illustrates how this UCAR study has selectively chosen data that fits their preconceived assumptions of climate.”
Par for the “Climate Science” course.
Good old telegraph,
Malaysia closes diving reefs to save coral
Malaysia has closed several of its world-famous diving sites including those surrounding the tropical islands of Tioman and Redang because authorities claim the coral is being killed off by (global warming).
Twelve reefs that attract half a million tourists from around the world annually are now closed to divers and snorkellers until the end of October to allow the corals to recover from bleaching caused by warmer seas.
Does that mean global warming will end in october.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/7904497/Malaysia-closes-diving-reefs-to-save-coral.html
No, you are all wrong. See what’s happening is, man emitted CO2 is more susceptible to the trade winds, so as a results, CO2 emitted from the south migrates to the north and emitted in the north to the south. Eventually, going from north to south and south to north the CO2 hits the doldrums where all of the CO2 accumulates and simply just stays there. So, this basically creates the equivalent effect of a giant cosmic water expanding ray gun pointed right at the Indian Ocean thus just the beginning of our impending doom. Unless you buy carbon credits, which are now sold at a very discounted price, purchases at museums notwithstanding.
A new study in Nature Geoscience finds that Indian Ocean sea levels are rising unevenly and threatening residents in some densely populated coastal areas, particularly those along the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea, Sri Lanka, Sumatra, and Java.
It is shame that as the scientist of his repute he has no inclination to widen his investigation into particular area before making such ‘scientific’ pronouncements. I recommend study of two world maps; one showing the strongest gravitation anomaly, the other the sharpest transition of magnetic field (density of the iso lines) anywhere in the world, both located in region of Indian Ocean. This is a sign of strong perturbations in the earth mantle and nothing to do with AGW.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/goce.jpg
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/data/mag_maps/pdf/Z_map_mf_2005.pdf
I would also recommend a closer look at :
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC1.htm
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC1.htm
but then I think CO2 is essential component of life on this planet!
The most interesting thing I notice is that there is no mention of how much the sea level rises or lowers. It would have to be more than tidal influences to be significant, wouldn’t it?