
National power grids could overheat and air travel severely disrupted while electronic items, navigation devices and major satellites could stop working after the Sun reaches its maximum power in a few years.
Senior space agency scientists believe the Earth will be hit with unprecedented levels of magnetic energy from solar flares after the Sun wakes “from a deep slumber” sometime around 2013, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.
In a new warning, Nasa said the super storm would hit like “a bolt of lightning” and could cause catastrophic consequences for the world’s health, emergency services and national security unless precautions are taken.
Scientists believe it could damage everything from emergency services’ systems, hospital equipment, banking systems and air traffic control devices, through to “everyday” items such as home computers, iPods and Sat Navs.
Due to humans’ heavy reliance on electronic devices, which are sensitive to magnetic energy, the storm could leave a multi-billion pound damage bill and “potentially devastating” problems for governments.
“We know it is coming but we don’t know how bad it is going to be,” Dr Richard Fisher, the director of Nasa’s Heliophysics division, said in an interview with The Daily Telegraph.
“It will disrupt communication devices such as satellites and car navigations, air travel, the banking system, our computers, everything that is electronic. It will cause major problems for the world.
“Large areas will be without electricity power and to repair that damage will be hard as that takes time.”
Whoa, had to step back there a sec… Thought NASA might have employed .
Well at least they’re not exploiting the Maya.
So what would the world be like without alarmists/catastrophists? Couldn’t we try it for five years and see?
Just lock them all up where they can only scare and stare at each other for a while.
back to the crystal radio yaba daba doo
anna v says:
June 18, 2010 at 4:41 am
I don’t think home electronics are at much of a risk, especially if they’re unplugged from the wall outlet.
It not a pulse per se, it’s more like a heavy rainstorm, building and waning until the cloud passes. Read some of the accounts of the Carrington event, telegraph operators had hours to experience and try various ways to deal with it.
The safest thing to do is to disconnect devices from long transmission lines and when congress hauls you before the inquisitors, err, energy committee, tell them you felt it prudent to shutdown the grid for a day instead having to rebuild it.
@Jean Meeus says:
June 18, 2010 at 6:04 am
“O, no!!! After the “influence” of the planets, now some asteroids too?
Please stop that astrological nonsense.”
Fuss all you care to, it will not change the facts. This may all be too heretical for you, but who are you to comment so, on a subject you know nothing about. I can back my claims up with a wealth of evisence. There is no substance to your objection.
Pamela Gray says:
June 18, 2010 at 7:47 am
Have there been any super duper “events” that went off the…er…um… back side?
1192 AD
http://history.eserver.org/aurora-of-1192.txt
Ulric Lyons says:
June 18, 2010 at 8:18 am
“Please stop that astrological nonsense.”
Fuss all you care to, it will not change the facts. This may all be too heretical for you, but who are you to comment so, on a subject you know nothing about. I can back my claims up with a wealth of evisence. There is no substance to your objection.
The problem with pseudo-‘scientists’/astrologers is not that they don’t know their subject, but that what they know just ain’t so [to quote Mark Twain].
Joe Bastardis European blog tends to put it all in perspective…
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather
LightRain says:
(About solar storm events)
So is it 150 years, we’re overdue; or 500 years and we have nothing to worry about?
——————————————————————————————————-
Who knows? In 2003 a monster missed Earth and also in 1909. Since the 1859 event, scientists have gotten good at measuring these matters and they have recorded many of these critters, only some of which affected us. And we have no idea about the ones not visible to us.
http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/SSTA.pdf
Our Sun appears unstable, active as in 1958, or dropping down to little activity as during the Maunder Minimum. Judging by what we know, we can be hit at any time. The effects range from hardly noticeable to potentially civilization-destroying, depending on several factors. You pays your money and you takes your chances. My sense is that our high tech, just-in-time civilization is vulnerable to a new Carrington Event or probably to any of the about half-dozen serious solar events since 1859.
Geoff Sharp says:
June 18, 2010 at 7:58 am
you must acknowledge that the 4 gas giants do have some influence on the orbit pattern of the Sun around the SSB?
But that movement has no influence on solar activity, so what is the relevance to the topic of this thread?
If two people walk down the street on opposite sides, their center of mass is somewhere between them in the middle of the street. If one of them speeds up, it will influence the ‘orbit’ of the other one around that center of mass [as the center of mass will shift], but that will have no influence on the other person, per se. The center of mass does not exert any forces on its own.
@Leif Svalgaard says:
June 18, 2010 at 8:48 am
I would agree there is much pseudo science around in attemps to explain planetary influence on solar activity. The philosophy of many astrologers is that there is even no physical mechanism at play. You will not find it too easy to apply Twains “but that what they know just ain’t so” type of dismissal to my findings though.
Ulric Lyons says:
June 18, 2010 at 11:21 am
You will not find it too easy to apply Twains “but that what they know just ain’t so” type of dismissal to my findings though.
And why are your ‘findings’ any better than the rest? And who claims they are better [other than yourself]?
Ulric Lyons says:
June 18, 2010 at 8:30 am
1192 AD
http://history.eserver.org/aurora-of-1192.txt
Interesting and unusual read, thanks Ulric. Concidentally, I’ve just been in email convo on the subject of core motion with a retired Geophysics prof who was Richard Gross’ Phd mentor.
All of this spit and venom, signifying nothing.
(Note: I’m not talking about NASA.)
Oh dear. Do you have any idea who Jean Meeus is?
I see that most references to the Carrington Event seem to be omitting a very important parameter — the typical voltage such an event might induce at the Earth’s surface, usually measured in volts per meter. There is a big difference between an EM field that can induce several thousand volts per meter on any conducting body and one that only may induce several tens of volts per kilometer of extended wire. However, the hazard these rare events pose to our modern power grid is real.
It may be ironic that the people living deep in the jungles of Borneo would probably coast through such an event with no disruption of their daily routine while the modern world outside could well be descending into chaos.
This may interest some people here – from a Russian scientist.
http://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/06/19/more-junk-science-out-of-nasa-top-russian-scientist-says-theres-no-scientific-basis-for-2013-solar-devastation-prediction/
Queelius says:
June 19, 2010 at 2:49 am
All of this spit and venom, signifying nothing.
(Note: I’m not talking about NASA.)
It signifies a lot.
Those of us that are scientists in the physical sciences should be grateful that Leif does not tire of stating the scientific pov when all these planetary alignment stuff comes up on these boards. I suppose if Leif were not a bit acerbic, he would have given up as most of us most of the time have, though if he does not pipe up, I feel obliged to hold the side up for science and pipe up myself.
There are very specific and stringent, sine qua non, requirements for a “theory” to be a scientific theory :
It should adhere to the dynamics developed by generations of scientists, ending with Einstein, and formulated into differential equations that we can use and solve, and be able to predict orbits, reactions, interactions.
It should not violate conservation numbers, i.e. the constants of motion are constants of motion for the “theory” under examination.
Conservation of energy, momentum, angular momentum, ( and some esoteric topological numbers too, which are outside my competence too) .
Galilean relativity, where the velocities with respect to the velocity of light are small.
etc.
These planetary theories, coming from the times when astrology and astronomy were all mixed up together, fail on the conservation of energy, primarily, and conservation of momentum and angular momentum when they try to use the barycenter as a real fulcrum of the forces acting on the planetary system.
1)There is not enough energy to be gravitationally exchanged ( gravitational energy available from the planets is very small and appears in the tides, which are tiny on the sun, and tinier on the earth).
2) Gravity is a manifestation of mass, and the barycenter has 0 mass. It can affect nothing.
3)If one tried to formulate the forces in the barycentric system ( it is a legitimate Galilean system, as the epicycle system, see below) very complicated formulae would be needed. Simplicity is the hallmark of real science.
Let me give an example from the theory of epicycles. It is wrongly assumed that the epicycles are wrong. A fallacy. If one calculates the orbits of the planets in a geocentric system the epicycles appear in all their glory. Does it have a meaning to start using this system to derive the motion of the sun? It is a very legitimate Galilean system but is rejected because its mathematical formulation is far removed from the mathematical formulation of the forces acting by the heavenly bodies; very complicated mathematical formulae would be needed to express gravitational forces in this coordinate system. That is why the heliocentric system, once envisaged, became dominant. The forces have a simple natural formulation in this system.
Let me repeat, within the formidable construct of modern mathematics/physics/astronomy that has been established, a graduate course has to be followed by a student in order to assimilate and be able to use the theory for new manifestations, planetary and barycentric influences are “pseudo science”.
So, as this board is followed by many scientists , I am grateful that Leif has undertaken the role of watchdog-reviewer for the science appearing here in the comments.
And I have not entered on the subject of coincidences in independent chaotic systems fooling people that correlations exist when they are either fortuitous clock synchronizations, or simply fortuitous.
Carsten Arnholm, Norway says:
June 19, 2010 at 4:04 am
Oh dear. Do you have any idea who Jean Meeus is?
Carsten, with respect, while Jan Meeus is an expert on astronomical motion, I doubt he has studied the subject matter Ulric is covering. Making appeals to authority is passe. Look at the data and try to find out whether there is something worth further investigation yourself.
Just to remind everyone that astrology is about consciousness, not physics. It is not within the realm of scientific analysis – not because there are no correlations – Gauquelin showed several, but these are relatively crude and not useful. The practice of astrological analysis works with the symbolic language of number and harmonic and is far too complex for experimental science to grapple with. Most physical scientists have very little comprehension of astrology – as modern science separates the realm of consciousness from the physical – a separation that would not have been accepted by Galileo, Kepler or Newton, all of whom looked at the world as a whole.
Incidentally, the six founding father of the Royal Society, led by Elias Ashmole, were all students of the inner world of consciousness – using alchemy and astrology – the former being a coded programme of enquiry disguised as chemistry so that its practitioners could avoid the potentially fatal attentions of the inquisitor.
Modern science actually started out as a ‘magician’s trick’ – setting up an outer temple of ‘objective’ enquiry, but maintaining an inner temple of esoteric thought – which is still present and well under cover.
A modern student of science would do well to dwell on a few facts of physics: at the quantum level of explanation, other dimensions are invoked in which time and space do not obey the same rules; ‘particles’ come in an out of (this) reality; and no instruments – by definition, can explore the sub-quantum field.
So – we should beware and accept that there are forces at work that may operate in another dimension of this reality and that our understanding of such forces is very limited. The potential for apparently weak magnetic fields and electrical currents as feedback from planets into the sun may appear of little interest because of the very tiny energies involved – but are not the inter-planetary fields of the solar system also very small, yet they affect the flow of cosmic rays and plasma? I do not think there has been an exhaustive analysis of solar cycles in relation to planetary cycles – which are very complex – but that is still not ‘astrology’ – which is about consciousness itself.
Astrology is however, relevant to the debate on mega-flares. Any such major event that disrupted planetary grids (and I have read the NAS report to Congress – it makes sober reading – it could take years not months to repair the grid, and they consider that millions of Americans would be at risk of starvation), would also impact upon human consciousness – like a wake-up call above all others. Ask any astrologer what they expect to see this summer…….a major wake-up call in relation to security, structure and consciousness….all well before 2013. So – this summer (through to late autumn) will be a good test of astrology. The giant planets Uranus and Jupiter align opposite Saturn, with Pluto at right-angles and Neptune about 30 degrees away from Uranus. These rare oppositions were the subject of Landscheidt’s calculations. He dealt with them purely within the Newtonian realm of celestial mechanics. He was also an astrologer, but he kept the two entirely separate.
So – this summer will also provide a test of Landscheidt’s thesis – which suffered somewhat from not predicting the latest El Nino, but was spot on for the potential Dalton/Maunder Minimum (excuse the pun).
Incidently, I had some correspondence with an astrophysicist who worked on the way magnetic field transfers the energy of angular momentum to early forming star discs. Leif – I wonder, the centre of mass may have no ‘power’ to influence things, but it might act as a proxy for some other forces operating…….? After all – the planets behave like objects being spun around on the end of ropes – they don’t fly off into space, yet the ropes are invisible! Science does not know how the energy is transferred along the invisible rope and even the mathematicians who delve into this last great mystery, have to invoke eleven further dimensions!
tallbloke says:
June 19, 2010 at 6:33 am
while Jan Meeus is an expert on astronomical motion, I doubt he has studied the subject matter Ulric is covering.
That subject matter falls in the category of extensive knowledge of things that ain’t so.
Making appeals to authority is passe.
But making appeals to knowledge of physics and modern science is not passé.
anna v says:
June 19, 2010 at 6:24 am
These planetary theories, coming from the times when astrology and astronomy were all mixed up together, fail on the conservation of energy, primarily, and conservation of momentum and angular momentum when they try to use the barycenter as a real fulcrum of the forces acting on the planetary system.
Once again you completely ignore the force which is billions of times stronger than gravity. We are not ignorant of the laws of physics, nor do we compartmentalize some of them and marginalize others. For example, the solar motion WRT the barycentre of the solar system is simply a useful proxy for the combined planetary motion we can use to get some clues as to the timings of the manifestations of some electromagnetic forces as well as gravitational ones. Ulric’s concentration on specific alignments of planets makes sense when viewed from this perspective. It is pursuing a level of detail beyond the generalized picture consideration of barycentric motion offers.
Not yet being certain of underlying causes isn’t an impediment to discovering coincident phenomena, which can be tested for statistical significance in relation to empirical data on the assumption of common underlying causes. It is speculative at this stage, and we make no apologies for that. Nor should we need to, in discourse with open minded people.
The approach taken by the mainstream astrophysicists is only one among several worthy of investigation. It’s good that Leif and you concentrate on the further extension of known principles and methods within your expertise. It’s bad that you denigrate and smear others who are aware that there are other approaches worth pursuing. The aim would be to re-unite the different approaches on common ground further down the line when further discoveries are made, ideas empirically tested, results are in and have been integrated into an actual ‘proper theory’.
What you and Leif call ‘pseudo science’ is yielding interesting results and is progressing rapidly beyond the Flintstones universe you prefer to inhabit.
@Carsten Arnholm, Norway says:
June 19, 2010 at 4:04 am
“Oh dear. Do you have any idea who Jean Meeus is?”
Yes, and with a well predictable response from an astronomer of these times. I would expect though, a more favourable reaction from a progressive thinking astronomer, such as David Whitehouse. Is not Meeus aware that Kepler, Gallileo, Copernicus, Tycho and Newton all practised planetary weather astrology? Who is he to decide it is bunkum eh? Like I said, he has not studied the subject, so he is in no position to make fair comment.
Peter Taylor says:
June 19, 2010 at 6:47 am
I had some correspondence with an astrophysicist who worked on the way magnetic field transfers the energy of angular momentum to early forming star discs. Leif – I wonder, the centre of mass may have no ‘power’ to influence things, but it might act as a proxy for some other forces operating…….?
The magnetic field was indeed the medium that shifted angular momentum from the Sun to the planets when they were formed. This was possible because the solar wind was much stronger back then.
I don’t think Astrology is about consciousness, but rather the belief that the mere positions of heavenly bodies have effects beyond ordinary physical causes, e.g. causing solar cycles or your finances or your health [check your newspaper’s horoscope to see what’s in store for you today]. I would think that if this were so, the sun would cycle even if there were no conscious beings around, e.g. 100 million years ago.
Appeal to ‘other forces’ we know nothing about etc is not science.
@Leif Svalgaard says:
June 19, 2010 at 7:02 am
“That subject matter falls in the category of extensive knowledge of things that ain’t so.”
Climbing on mirrors again Leif.
I would be very happy to put a large sum of money on it being `just so`.
@Geoff Sharp says:
June 18, 2010 at 7:58 a
“I agree, some of this speculation is nonsensical, verging on snake oil salesman.”
It is not speculation, it is pure observation, very much unlike your own work.