Nils Axel Morner and Don Easterbrook told them so. So did Willis, who had some very similar ideas.
We’ve mentioned several times here on WUWT that the claims about sea level rise and sinking islands are overblown. For example, this idiotic publicity stunt by the Maldivian government, signing a legal declaration underwater, demonstrates just how far some people are willing to prostitute their victimhood for financial gain. The MO: You other countries warmed the earth, raising sea level which threatens our island. Pay up sucka!
Yeah, well, that scam is now going the way of Nigerian email.
From TV New Zealand:
An Auckland University researcher has offered new hope to the myriad small island nations in the Pacific which have loudly complained their low-lying atolls will drown as global warming boosts sea levels.
Geographer Associate Professor Paul Kench has measured 27 islands where local sea levels have risen 120mm – an average of 2mm a year – over the past 60 years, and found that just four had diminished in size.
Working with Arthur Webb at the Fiji-based South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission, Kench used historical aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images to study changes in the land area of the islands.
They found that the remaining 23 had either stayed the same or grown bigger, according to the research published in a scientific journal, Global and Planetary Change.
“It has been thought that as the sea level goes up, islands will sit there and drown,” Prof Kench told the New Scientist. “But they won’t.
“The sea level will go up and the island will start responding.
One of the highest profile islands – in a political sense – was Tuvalu, where politicians and climate change campaigners have repeatedly predicted it will be drowned by rising seas, as its highest point is 4.5 metres above sea level. But the researchers found seven islands had spread by more than 3 percent on average since the 1950s.
One island, Funamanu, gained 0.44 hectares or nearly 30 percent of its previous area.
And the research showed similar trends in the Republic of Kiribati, where the three main urbanised islands also “grew” – Betio by 30 percent (36ha), Bairiki by 16.3 percent (5.8ha) and Nanikai by 12.5 percent (0.8ha).
Webb, an expert on coastal processes, told the New Scientist the trend was explained by the fact the islands mostly comprised coral debris eroded from encircling reefs and pushed up onto the islands by winds and waves.
The process was continuous, because the corals were alive, he said.
In effect the islands respond to changes in weather patterns and climate – Cyclone Bebe deposited 140ha of sediment on the eastern reef of Tuvalu in 1972, increasing the main island’s area by 10 percent.
But the two men warned that while the islands were coping for now, any acceleration in the rate of sea level rise could re-instate the earlier gloomy predictions.
No one knows how fast the islands can grow, and calculating sea level rise is an inexact science.
Climate experts have generally raised estimates for sea level rise – the United Nations spoke in late 2009 of a maximum 2 metre rise by 2100, up from 18-59cm estimated in 2007.
Full story here. Even their source, the New Scientist was forced to admit the “good news” but says “sea level rise warnings stand”. Yeah, sure, whatever.
=================================
Here’s the abstract and the link to the paper. (corrected, the New Scientist provided link was originally bad)
The dynamic response of reef islands to sea level rise: evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the central pacific
a South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission, SOPAC. Fiji
b School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand
Received 22 February 2010; accepted 13 May 2010. Available online 21 May 2010.
Abstract
Low-lying atoll islands are widely perceived to erode in response to measured and future sea level rise. Using historical aerial photography and satellite images this study presents the first quantitative analysis of physical changes in 27 atoll islands in the central Pacific over a 19 to 61 year period. This period of analysis corresponds with instrumental records that show a rate of sea level rise of 2.0 mm.y-1 in the Pacific. Results show that 86% of islands remained stable (43%) or increased in area (43%) over the timeframe of analysis. Largest decadal rates of increase in island area range between 0.1 to 5.6 hectares. Only 14% of study islands exhibited a net reduction in island area. Despite small net changes in area, islands exhibited larger gross changes. This was expressed as changes in the planform configuration and position of islands on reef platforms. Modes of island change included: ocean shoreline displacement toward the lagoon; lagoon shoreline progradation; and, extension of the ends of elongate islands. Collectively these adjustments represent net lagoonward migration of islands in 65% of cases. Results contradict existing paradigms of island response and have significant implications for the consideration of island stability under ongoing sea level rise in the central Pacific. First, islands are geomorphologically persistent features on atoll reef platforms and can increase in island area despite sea level change. Second; islands are dynamic landforms that undergo a range of physical adjustments in responses to changing boundary conditions, of which sea level is just one factor. Third, erosion of island shorelines must be reconsidered in the context of physical adjustments of the entire island shoreline as erosion may be balanced by progradation on other sectors of shorelines. Results indicate that the style and magnitude of geomorphic change will vary between islands. Therefore, Island nations must place a high priority on resolving the precise styles and rates of change that will occur over the next century and reconsider the implications for adaption.
(Corrected) Link to paper (paywall) is here
h/t to Purakanui
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James Sexton says:
June 2, 2010 at 5:28 pm
“I live by a small river called the Neosho… The river also has a small catfish indigenous to it called the Neosho river mad tomcat.”
Yeah, right. A species for every river! I’m sure this river is not connected to any other rivers…
Speaking of scams, each of these alleged “species” or “subspecies” or “distinct geographic populations” can be listed and thereby become an employment franchise for an indefinite period for Conservation Biologists.
And they are so easy to invent. Haven’t they identified the ‘Lower Neosho river mad tomcat’ yet? Hope it doesn’t swim upstream. Or the ‘large gravel Neosho river mad tomcat’ and the ‘small gravel Neosho river mad tomcat’? Hasn’t the local environmental group raised alarms about them yet, and proposed each one for listing?
That is why the lists keep getting longer and the ranks of these professional eco-heroes keeps growing, all paid for by your tax dollars.
And climate change threatens them all, of course.
Oops. Pardon my double post re Crichton. Thought I had accidentally sent the first one into the ether… or it had been submerged by rising sea levels.
LarryOldtimer says:
June 2, 2010 at 9:18 pm
And where, exactly, is the elevation benchmark that the elevations of these islands are compared to?
Land and islands continually rise or subside and will continue to do one or the other. There is no really fixed elevation point on this planet that I ever heard of.
In the GPS era absolute elevations are usually calculated from the “reference ellipsoid” an imaginary approximation of a smooth Earth surface. See item 1.4.1.3 in the pdf I linked above.
Contrary to claims in the comments, the Maldives is not an Islamic theocracy. Islamism is only one of several political currents there. Rather the Maldives is a new multiparty democracy. The previous dictator of 30 years was finally peacefully ousted by the efforts of the Maldivian Democratic Party, led in part by Mohammed Nasheed. Mr. Nasheed, the new Maldivian president, participated in this underwater publicity stunt, as other former democracy campaigners. Personally I think the stunt was rather creative, though it was based on a mistaken view.
As a fan of Anthony’s work, and also a fan of democratic movements around the world, I want to point out that these particular politicians are neither idiots nor nutbags (as suggested by jonjermey in the comments). After following their efforts for a number of years, I am confident they are not the type to “prostitute their victimhood.” Mr. Nasheed persevered through years of imprisonment, repeated torture and other political repression before he was able to build a large enough domestic coalition to force the regime to accept multiparty elections. Since being elected president he has continued to argue for expanding liberty in his country.
But of course most of these politicians are not science experts, and they, like many people, are frightened by the predictions of catastrophe by unscrupulous professionals. Rather than ridiculing these politicians for their ignorance, it is better to get them better educated on this subject. They could teach us all something about political strategy.
It’s pretty impressive. According to the Telegraph,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/tuvalu/7799503/Pacific-islands-growing-not-shrinking-due-to-climate-change.html
23/27 of the islands have grown – and some of them by 30% – since 1950. Wow. That’s quite a different conclusion.
Some replys to the comments on my question above
Dr bill: “Some of them moved a bit higher up. Some of them moved to the other side of the island”
I have to wonder how you move ‘further up’ on islands that at their highest ~1ft above sea level.
Jamama: ” the sea water is penetrating the water table because they’ve drawn too much fresh water for their crops, it’s a delicate balance. They have also destroyed much of the outer reef through dynamite fishing.”
Sorry the crops they were growing were grown for generations without a problem, because the islands are so small there is no room to expand these crops so the water demand has not increased and the island populations had declined as some of the younger inhabitants had moved to New Guinea, as for “dynamite fishing” sorry I spent over a week snorkeling the main reefs and saw no sign of damage or anyone doing this (they are some of the best reefs I have ever seen), I have to say these are very friendly happy people. On the main island of the group there is just 1 t.v. which they run for only 1 hour a week (they have just 1 generator) they like to watch music videos from the 70s.
Bruce of Newcastle: “but there’s no mining on Bougainville that I know of”
As you yourself go on to say they had a copper mine it was the main source of their economy, hence they are a failed mining community if you prefer, the mine being shutdown is one of the main reasons it is now a bad place to be moving to but with their Islands becoming uninhabitable the people of Carteret don’t have much choice.
An Inquirer: You are basically repeating the same nonsense in Jamama’s comment
I realize you guys base these comments on what you read on sites like this one but as I said, I’ve been there, they don’t use Dynamite for fishing and saying they do for construction is actually quite funny, I would be interested to know what you would dynamite off a reef on a group of islands were the only construction is native huts made of wood and there are no roads.
The BBC’s David Shukman will be so upset http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7203313.stm He is one of the useless BBC ‘reporters’ who pushed the idea.
There is a simple explanation why the islands grow. It is explained by Hank Johnson’s theory of Guam tipping over:
The soldiers are selectively marching on the parts of the islands that are higher because they don’t want to drown. Consequently, this part of the island goes down, while the others go up – like on a seesaw.
That means that the elevation is getting more uniform, and some parts of the island that were below the water get higher and emerge from the ocean, while the top peaks of the islands are getting lower.
I am only partially kidding but it’s somewhat hard to define the boundary of this joke. 😉
@Steven W says: June 2, 2010 at 11:30 pm
OK, Steven W, how come even even Wikipedia (that font of CAGW propaganda) admits that the Carteret islands are most likely sinking as they are on the top of a subsiding extinct seamount?
“Paul Tobasi, the atolls’ district manager with Papua New Guinea’s Bougainville province, and many other environmental groups[6] have suggested that the flooding is the result of sea-level rise associated with global warming. He also stated that small tidal waves were becoming more frequent.[5]
The Carteret islands likely consist of a base of coral that sits atop an extinct volcanic mount. In the usual geological course of events first proposed by Charles Darwin, such islands eventually subside due to weathering and erosion, as well as isostatic adjustments of the sea floor. It has also been speculated that dynamite fishing [5] in the Carterets such as occurred in the island during the prolonged Bougainville conflict may be contributing to the increased inundation. Coral reefs buffer against wave and tidal action, and so their degradation may increase an island’s level of exposure to those forces. Another suggestion is that tectonic movement may be causing the gradual subsidence of the atoll. [7]
Historically other populated islands, for example Tuanaki in the Cook Islands (last seen in 1842), are known to have sunk entirely and relatively suddenly for causes unrelated to rising sea levels.[8]”
If, as you say in an earlier comment, you have actually been to the Carteret islands, I can’t believe that you aren’t very well aware of this. So how come you are trolling on here spouting nonsense?
Think we wouldn’t notice?
If the government of the Maldives is so concerned about their islands sinking beneath the waves, why are they planning to build another 64 resorts?
http://www.letsgomaldives.com/maldives/news/sri-lankan-companies-to-tap-the-billion-dollar-contruction-industry-in-the-maldives.html
“Around 30 Sri Lankan companies and organizations will participate in the Maldivian Construction Fair to be held in Male, from April 20 to 23, Director, South Asia Exhibition Services, Imran Hassan said yesterday.
He, told “The Island” that the Sri Lankan participants have a great opportunity to tap the billion dollar Maldivian construction industry,which has received a boost, with the politically stable Government of President Nasheed, providing numerous incentives to foreign investors.
“The planned infrastructure development in the Maldives,includes the construction of 64 new resorts,with each estimated to cost around US$ 40 million,he said. “Maldives is a country that imports almost everything and with the new governments policy of large scale privatization,there are endless opportunities for the bold and enterprising.””
You’re not getting the point, Steven. Well, sure you are, but that’s not your purpose, is it? You asked no question in your post, Steven. You just slipped in some feel-bad propaganda that nobody is buying. That stuff is passé, Steven, overworked to death, but you’re still trying to nudge someone into a guilt trip with heart-wrenching non sequiturs.
I don’t feel guilty. I don’t hate myself or the rest of my species. I think we’re amazing, and the existence of idiots like yourself just shows the range of human variability. As soon as we get an attack of the killer wolves, your talents will be front and center. Hang in there Steven, your time will come. The world is full of good luck and hard times. We have beautiful things and ugly ones. Come back some time with a picture of yourself hugging a naked mole rat or one of those foot-long mucous-covered slugs that grow in the British Columbia rain forest. I’ve been told that they’re “threatened”, you know.
10,000 years ago, my family’s island was under 2 to 3 kilometers of ice. Now it’s not. It will be again. 100 years ago, there was concern for the blacksmiths. Their well-being was threatened by the evil horseless carriage. What happened to the blacksmiths? There are still some around, but mostly they morphed into garage mechanics who, for $100 an hour, will tell you that the diagnostic computer says that your tangential dingleator needs to be replaced, and “It’s gonna hurt”. They seem to be doing all right. The world isn’t static, and “cute, ugly, happy, and sad” have nothing to do with Science, nor with cause and effect.
Go troll somewhere else, Steven.
/dr.bill
First, I can’t tell you how happy I was to read that the scientists are catching up with WUWT. I first published on the Tuvalu question in 2004, and for years I have been a lone voice crying in the wilderness. So I am overjoyed to be vindicated, take that, you forces of darkness!
Moving along, Steven W says:
June 2, 2010 at 7:19 pm
Stephen W. you need to read my article here. You’ve been to the Carterets, but you haven’t done your homework. I lived for six years on islands within 250 miles of the Carterets, and half that time I was living on a coral atoll. The Carteret story is another part of the “help, the rising sea level is creating climate refugees” myth.
The Carteret islands are in a part of the planet where the crust experiences “tectonic subsidence”. Subsidence means sinking. But the main problems faced by the Carteret Islanders are those caused by overpopulation. Overpopulation causes a variety of ills.
One is overpumping of the freshwater lens. This leads to salt water intrusion into the fresh water lens (accompanied, of course, by complaints of “global warming” like you are giving us.) Global warming and sea level rise are not the problem. There is only so much water on a tiny atoll. When you have too many people drinking it … well, I’m sure you can see what happens. The ocean intrudes into the fresh water lens with salty water, and global warming adherents intrude into the discussion with bogus explanations.
Another problem is human caused erosion. Every footstep on an atoll pushes the sand nearer the ocean. Every trail becomes a tiny creek when it rains, moving sand into the sea. The more feet, the more footsteps, the more erosion.
An additional problem with too many humans is that it leads to too little vegetation. Plants prevent erosion, and humans are hard on plants.
A big problem with overpopulation is overfishing of the reef. The fish are a crucial part of the reef ecology. When they are overfished, the reef suffers. When the reef suffers, the atoll starts to shrink. When the atoll shrinks, in addition to having less land you have less water. This is particularly true of the overfishing of parrotfish, which are crucial to the reef ecology and are the main source of the beach sand … yes, those same parrotfish which you may have eaten when you were on the Carterets.
Why is overpopulation such a problem in the Carterets? Size. The largest of the half-dozen atolls is about three-quarters of a mile long and a quarter mile wide. Thats about 120 acres, or 50 hectares … and the rest are even smaller.
Finally, you say the shape of the atolls is changing … my friend, that’s what atolls do. They grow on one end, they shrink on the other end, they split in two, and then join up again. You seem to think that they should be solid, but they are just piles of sand in a wild ocean. As such, they change with the wind and the tide … so you should not be surprised when that happens.
Yes, some people are leaving the Carterets … but not for the reasons you claim. They are leaving because the islands can’t sustain the birth rate, so some people have to leave. It’s simple math, and while the people of the Carterets may not know their arithmetic … they’re great at multiplication.
I’m pretty sure that’s from the “Copenhagen Declaration,” whose title misleadingly suggests an association with the UN. (You can find it by googling.)
Willis Eschenbach wrote a thread-article posted here in January, “Floating Islands,” which treats this matter in more detail, here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/27/floating-islands/ . There are links in the article and the comments to further information. One poster commented thus:
Another thread on this topic was posted here in October: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/18/maldivians-pull-underwater-publicity-stunt/ ; it contains the following post:
And there are other threads on this site where this matter is dealt with; click on “Categories” in the sidebar, then “Sea Level,” or click on this: http://wattsupwiththat.com/category/sea-level/
The article in question is a new one, appearing on the web first:
http://tinyurl.com/3agsnqe
And about that Czech power plant in Prunerov and Pacific islanders – it was a plan to retrofit the existing old coal plant with better and cleaner technology, but the Greens requested to use the newest (and much more expensive) one, which performs a bit better with regard to CO2 production, but when a high quality black coal is used, not the brown one from the local resources.
To increase their pressure, they solicited Micronesian government to request a global EIA study.
Shame no, it is a travesty that the world continues to disobey the dictates of the prophets of doom. Such a pity Shakespeare or some one of his ilk is not around to quill the follies of man and his foibles and failings. Centuries from now the names in the play would be legend. Anthony of Watt the prince of light. I am sure the readers of this blog could cast the rest of the characters. This would have been Shakespeare’s greatest play. Wayne
I also wrote a piece on Tuvalu recently.
Their population has risen from 8000 to 12000 since 1985.
Tells you all you need to know about why Tuvalu is in trouble.
Steven W says:
June 2, 2010 at 7:19 pm
This place was a paradise, one of the islands in this group has been divided in half, more importantly they used to grow crops to feed themselves but salt water has crept into the water table and such crops will no longer grow….
___________________________________________________________________________
An explanation of the actual cause of what is happening is here: Floating Islands
So much more reasonable to assume that coral has added signifigantly to the land mass recently than to assume that the plates that the islands sit on may move UP AND DOWN slightly, rather than just side to side…
Busy coral…
just how far some people are willing to prostitute their victimhood for financial gain?
The other day, my daughter came home from school with a box of girl scout cookies that she purchased. Someone on the school bus played the “race card” to try and get a cookie… for a cookie!
@Steven W says: June 2, 2010 at 11:30 pm
(I posted earlier but it seems to have disappeared)
[Good to see Willis Eschenbach’s recent sensible comments.]
But even the ultra-warmist Wikipedia points out that the Carterets are founded on an extinct seamount which seems to be sinking.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carteret_Islands
As you have been there it is surprising you weren’t aware of that.
Better luck next time.
Steven W: Although you accuse others of repeating “nonsense from sites like these,” perhaps a more appropriate charge would be that you repeat nonsense from the mainstream media.
You claim that “the island populations had declined,” but a quick research shows that Tuvalu’s “population of 11,636 in 2005 has more than doubled since 1980.”
As for mining, perhaps there is some difference between the Maldives and Tuvalu, but here is a 1994 paper that wanted to look at the real cause of problems in the area: “large areas of reef flats have been degraded by mining of coral for the construction industry” http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/umrsmas/bullmar/1994/00000055/F0020002/art00038.
To blame the problem on CO2 and rising oceans perpetuates the real problem.
Why do some people, such as Steven W, persist in promulgating ignorance? If the majority of Mankind had that attitude now we would undo all that the Renaissance and the Enlightenment did for promoting science-based or rational, sceptical thought and drive us back to the old god-driven sdtyles of thinking. No doubt Steven W attributes any stomache-ache he suffers to an angry deity, angry because of Steven’s unknowingly offending that deity.
@ur momisugly Al Gored
You’re right on the money! Back in the early 90s, I thought it odd that the poor fishy didn’t move from river to river. Lo and behold, there are other places the poor fishy lives. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neosho_madtom . I’d thought we’d won the war, but the rampant malicious stupidity has once again visited us! I hadn’t heard about a recent study, but here it is on the poor fishy. http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2005/5282/pdf/SIR20055282.pdf .
Just skimming through the study, I see no reference to the other rivers. Apparently, harvesting the gravel from the Neosho is the killer of the fishy regardless of what river the poor fishy lives in. I wonder why they don’t want us to have a gravel industry here? Probably so we wouldn’t compete with the Census bureau in competition for workers. I see the latest study repeats the same meme about the gravel being the habitat of the madtom(but later states that it thrives in other places as well) and that the gravel is a finite resource. Forget the hundred year history proving the incorrect posit of the study. I can boat down the river and see for myself, we have as much river gravel today as we did when I was a child. Why is our economies in the tank? One doesn’t have to look very far to see what forces are working against our economy.
“We have met the enemy, and they are us.”
A Politician can, by training, education, and pure common sense, take a non-fact, fact, or myth, and twist it into a means of making money or taking it from fools. This inherent ability of politicians to make a living is greatly facilitated by the ignorance or intelligence, the guilt or gullibility, and every other human trait (pro and con), found within human beings who have a penny in their pocket.
On the one hand, we want to hate these people, because they’ve made us look like fools again, and again, and again, and …
On the other hand, there’s something admirable about people who are smarter than we are. Isn’t there?
Politics is the Science of Making Money the Easy Way! It’s magic to behold. (Some call it theft;-)
Steven W: June 2, 2010 at 11:30 pm
Dr bill: “Some of them moved a bit higher up. Some of them moved to the other side of the island”
I have to wonder how you move ‘further up’ on islands that at their highest ~1ft above sea level.
I don’t think you’ll find too many permanently-populated islands with a high point of only 1 foot above sea level. Matter of fact, I don’t think you’ll find *any*…