UPDATE: NOAA on the same day predicts a below normal east Pacific hurricane season, see below for addeddum.
Contact: Chris Vaccaro, 202-536-8911 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Susan Buchanan, 301-713-0622 May 27, 2010
NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season
An “active to extremely active” hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. As with every hurricane season, this outlook underscores the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan in place.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:
- 14 to 23 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
- 8 to 14 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
- 3 to 7 could be major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”
The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Expected factors supporting this outlook are:
- Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
- Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region.
- High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.
“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop.”
“FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we’re prepared for hurricane season,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. “But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it’s important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready. These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans. You can’t control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you’re ready.”
The President recently designated May 23 through 29 as National Hurricane Preparedness Week. NOAA and FEMA encourage those living in hurricane-prone states to use this time to review their overall preparedness. More information on individual and family preparedness can be found at http://www.Ready.gov and http://www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.
NOAA scientists will continue to monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us at http://www.noaa.gov or on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/usnoaagov.
On the Web:
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center: http://ww.hurricanes.gov
FEMA: http://www.fema.gov and http://www.ready.gov
– 30 –
UPDATE
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Contact: Susan Buchanan FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
301-713-0622 May 27, 2010
NOAA Predicts Below Normal Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center today announced that projected climate conditions point to a below normal hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 75 percent probability of a below normal season, a 20 percent probability of a near normal season and a five percent probability of an above normal season.
Allowing for forecast uncertainties, seasonal hurricane forecasters estimate a 70 percent chance of 9 to 15 named storms, which includes 4 to 8 hurricanes, of which 1 to 3 are expected to become major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 to 16 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes and four to five becoming major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through Nov. 30, with peak activity from July through September.
The main climate factors influencing this year’s Eastern Pacific outlook are the atmospheric conditions that have decreased hurricane activity over the Eastern Pacific Ocean since 1995 – and the fact that El Niño has faded.
“La Niña is becoming increasingly likely, which further raises the chance of a below-normal season for the Eastern Pacific region,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
The outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity. It does not predict whether, where or when any of these storms may hit land.
Eastern Pacific tropical storms most often track westward over open waters, sometimes reaching Hawaii and beyond. However, some occasionally head toward the northeast and may bring rainfall to the arid southwestern United States during the summer months. Also, during any given season, two to three tropical storms can affect western Mexico or Central America. Residents, businesses and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions should always prepare prior to each and every hurricane season regardless of the seasonal hurricane outlook.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us at http://www.noaa.gov or on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/usnoaagov.
– 30 –
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NOAA agrees with Joe Bastadi
Be interesting to see what happens. Definately something to track and check on at the end of the season.
I’m really hoping we don’t see that many hurricanes, though.
I hope they’ll be right. It could be a boon to my crude oil futures investment. (Ha).
I just wonder if La Niña is around, will that not have some impact on the surface temprature making deep cold water surface ? Bisides that did I not see somewhere it already started ?
The number of “named storms” is a very subjective and largely worthless metric, as Chris Landsea explains:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/landsea-eos-may012007.pdf
These ranges seem quite wide. How do they compare to the ranges given on previously offered (failed) predictions?
Whatever happens, fewer hurricanes or more than usual, it’ll be used as evididence of Climate Change.
I’m sure AGW will be blamed for this if it hasn’t been already.
Supporting article: http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-26/atlantic-hurricane-season-going-to-be-uglier-than-usual-researcher-says.html
“A hurricane researcher who rarely issues seasonal forecasts says the coming Atlantic cycle is likely to be a bad one, unleashing the sort of storms that become “the big and the ugly ones.”
Fifteen to 20 named storms may develop in the season, which begins June 1, threatening both the Gulf of Mexico and the U.S. East Coast, said Greg Holland, director of the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research.”
Hopefully it will break up that oil slick 😉
The raw number of storms seen by satellite is far less important than the number that are expected to make landfall. It is notable that this level of forecast accuracy is not attempted.
Apparently the NOAA forecast was drafted a couple of weeks ago .
The warm mid atlantic water is disappearing rapidly . Two days ago the hottest spot showed an anomaly of plus 2,1 degrees celsius , whilst yesterdays anomaly for the hottest spot showed a lot smaller spot with an anomaly of plus 1,77 degrees celsius , whilst at the african coast at the same time there is appearing an area with lower than normal temperatures . Given the rapid development of la nina in the pacific it all is remaining guesswork at its best and continued cooling of the atlantic may even lead to a season without hurricanes leaving at least the oil in the water of caribbean or do the noaa guys think that the south of the usa is needing the oil in order to prove that a carbon footprint is only a minor problem compared to an elvis presley style oily appearance . However it may be well received by Paris Hilton and other fashion celebrities .
I expect a busy Atlantic hurricane season. I also expect NOAA to name a storm even if it meets the requirements only for 5 seconds because NOAA knows people associate the number of names used with how active a season really is.
I think the hurricanes will either curve out to sea or stay south. It is looking like La Nina is coming. La Nina makes it hot and dry in the south-east US. Hot and dry is the result of big ridges of high pressure which is related the jet stream not dipping south. I’ve noticed that when the south-east has extended days of heat and no rain, the high pressure hovers somewhere in the area and the jet stream is very far to the north. A strong high pressure, like the ones that make it hot and dry, will cause a storm to go around it. It is too strong for a low pressure to push it out of the way. Since the high pressure is camping on the south-east area, it will drive the storm out to sea or force it south.
The areas that I think will be affected are any place on or near the Gulf of Mexico. I think that northern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia will not have a direct strike. New York and New Jersey are actually long overdue for a category 3 storm, the last one being in the 1930’s. If a cat-3 hits New York the story will be, not the fact that we have documented proof that two cat-3 storms have already made a direct strike on New York, but how global warming is causing storms to become stronger and survive more. A blocking high pressure may force a hurricane north to New York.
I don’t have a computer model, so I don’t know for sure.
Sure, they could be right, they could wrong, let’s wait & see?
OT – Newspaper article in the south-west of England’s Western Morning News with an article by , wait for it, the “Met Office”, claiming a computer model shows the likelihood of increased droughts by 2100 depending upon different scenarios Interestingly, one model run scenario (yes soap opera terminology, at least they seem to have dropped the “story-line” term that the IPCC seems keen on) shows no increase in the normal 50-100 frequency, another showed up to 10 times the frequency, but equally interesting was that no % likely probability was given for any of the model runs, so I assume they were after all Lara Croft X-Box 360 fantasy world scenarios again!
Pretty much the same forecast as they have had for the past several years. Kind of like a stopped clock that is right twice a day, the NOAA eventually has to be right. — John M Reynolds
I figure if they keep giving the same forecast sooner or later they will be right (broken clock and all that). I’m still hoping Dr Hansimian beats them.
http://www.nationalcenter.org/PR_Hurricane_Forecast_051810.html
What does Dr. William Gray predict???
Dr. Hansimian is the man! Er, uh the chimp!
If poster “Tom In Florida” sneezes down there, it’ll probably be declared a “named storm.”
I prefer the total storm energy tally (ACE IIRC). It takes the “to name or not to name” question out of play.
Do we believe that people have some deeper understanding of nature when they pepper the table with guesses and occasionally and rather infrequently win a few chips at a roulette wheel? Do we believe that they’re naturally “lucky”? Do we believe they’re “on a roll”?
There are help groups for gamblers who think they’ve worked out “systems” for predicting outcomes from, what is to all practical intents and purposes, incomprehensibly chaotic happenstance.
NOAA made the same prediction for the last 3 years and proved itself wrong. Eventually it will be right, but given the cooling trend off Peru, there is little reason to suppose a banner year for Hurricanes. Last year would have seemed to be a very good candidate for Hurricanes, but it was rather quiet. Which just goes to show that in addition to mega-climatic trends, local conditions greatly effect storm formation.
My money on the monkey.
Richard deSousa-The CSU forecast (Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray) is here:
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2010/april2010/apr2010.pdf
With regard to the EPAC forecast by NOAA, this is very typical, the two basins behave in complimentary ways when it comes to activity. Ryan Maue has suggested that this is because in the EPAC African Easterly Waves are an important genesis mechanism, and if those result in storms in the Atlantic, they don’t make it to EPAC. So when NATL is active, EPAC isn’t, and vice versa.
Will “Dr. James Hansimian” beat NOAA?
Ecotretas
They will be busy naming unexisting hurricanes.
It bothers me that we never read about their ‘batting average’ for previous years’ predictions. The media jumps on their predictions. My recollection is that they’re not very successful in predicting. What is their record?