Story from AFP via Breitbart, h/t to Leif Svalgaard. Maybe the Chinese had it right way back then with this gadget:
For ages, mankind has craved a tool that can provide early warning of that terrifying moment when the earth begins to shake.
But if a scientific paper published on Wednesday is confirmed, we may at last have found one.
The best hope yet of an earthquake predictor could lie in a small, brown, knobbly amphibian, it suggests.
The male common toad (Bufo bufo) gave five days’ warning of the earthquake that ravaged the town of L’Aquila in central Italy on April 6, 2009, killing more than 300 people and displacing 40,000 others, the study says.
Biologist Rachel Grant of Britain’s Open University embarked on a toad-monitoring project at San Ruffino lake, 74 kilometres (46 miles) north of L’Aquila, 10 days before the 6.3-magnitude quake struck.
Her two-person team observed the site for 29 days, counting toad numbers and measuring temperature, humidity, wind speed, rainfall and other conditions.
By March 28, more than 90 male toads had mustered for the spawning season, but two days later, their numbers suddenly fell, Grant reports.
By April 1 — five days before the quake — 96 percent of the males had fled.
Several dozen ventured back on April 9 for the full moon, a known courtship period for toads, although the tally was some 50-80 percent fewer than in previous years.
After this small peak, the numbers fell once more, only picking up significantly on April 15, two days after the last major aftershock, defined as 4.5 magnitude or higher.
In addition, the number of paired toads at the breeding site also dropped to zero three days before the quake. And no fresh spawn was found at the site from April 6 until the last big after-tremor.
Grant says the toads’ comportment is a “dramatic change” for the species.
Once male toads hole up at a breeding site, they usually never leave until the annual spawning season is over, she notes.
Eager to answer the riddle, Grant obtained Russian measurements of electrical activity in the ionosphere, the uppermost electromagnetic layer in the atmosphere, which were picked up by very low frequency (VLF) radio receivers.
The toads’ two periods of exodus both coincided with bursts of VLF disruption.
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My astrologer friend predicts peak of the earthquake activity around 20 of September 2010 .
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Solar?di=5B2B6B3163FA72FF8B69BDE4BE4459A6644A231C0C661DF51B8B117B44AFAFACD2C0DEA0C6A3AA29D19F4FA2892BAF9A4F0387B788F7BC52447472EAF9A33BA1219F3EE56E5399C836D8772D18B296D33BCE
Sorry I made a mistake about the death toll of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake. It was 70,000.
Saw the picture above? The earliest seismoscope was invented by the Chinese philosopher Chang Heng in A.D. 132 …way before science was settled and almost two thousand years ago before Al “Baby”‘s incarnation.☺
Well, accordig to Google Maps, there is no “San Rufino” or “San Ruffino” near l’Aquila.
Suggestions?
Janice (11:18:24) You know, women have less or no magnetite in their face bones that’s why they do not orientate as well as men, and this is because of lower hemoglobin levels.
Enneagram (11:18:49) : “Many of the here so clever and light comentators would be more seriously interested in digging with an open mind the issue and not just rejecting this toads’ tale whether they were living near the ‘pacific ring of fire’.”
“If a scientist has one piece of temperamental equipment that is essential to his job, it is that of a built-in doubter. Before he does anything else, he must doubt. He must doubt what others tell him and what he reads in reference books, and, most of all, what his own experiments show him and what his own reasoning tells him.”–Isaac Asimov, “My Built-In Doubter”
Oops. I read the article too fast. There apparently was more eggs laid after the quake so the spawning season there was not entirely over.
Still don’t buy the quake effect. Note the other unusual factors, the many possible factors not mentioned, and the simple fact that one essentially anecdotal incident cannot be translated into some grand theory.
It is April 1st today!
Sorry, I just don’t buy this. It’s likely just a coincidence.
People have debated the evolution of something like this above…seriously, how can you even consider it? What percentage of toads die in an earthquake in a typical forest? Not very many. How many earthquakes of sufficient magnitude in a toad’s lifespan? Very few or even zero. Sorry, but because of those two things, any selection pressure (as an engineer would think, driving force) would be so low as to be trivial. I’d be much more open to the simple and non-scientific (though not necessarily wrong) explanation that “God made them that way.”
Now, an argument that might be worth listening to is that the normal perceptions of the toads caused it to be “put off” by something in the vicinity before the earthquake (sound, etc). If so, what sense/perception was triggered and why don’t we have an instrument that can measure it? But to think that earthquakes caused natural selection/evolution to drive this…no way, IMO. I guess I’ve seen crazier stuff pinned to the NS/evo combination though.
E. M. Smith
After a 7.2 the 5.x are just no fun anymore. 6 or better is all that gives a thrill these days. Maybe I ought to go visit Chile…>>
Nah, they’re done for a bit. you gotta find the next one not the last one. Have you tried just licking the toad?
Ric Werme (13:23:38) :
Gary P (10:16:50) :
> And the chorus sings, “Correlation is not causation”
> Here is a nice map of earthquakes for the last 7 days.
> http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/
> So where was the toad warning for these?
Depends, were those:
1) in areas where toad breeding season was happening?
2) in areas where toad behavior was being studied?
The whole animal precursor stuff is fascinating but annoyingly anecdotal. There are enough hints of precursors that should lead to a huge number of things that could be studied. Why do people seem to miss them? One thought I came up with is an electrical potential in the ground. Four legged animals cover more distance than us two legged folk and should feel a stronger voltage than we do. Plus they tend not to wear shoes (or wear conductive iron horseshoes) and hence have much better electrical connection to the ground.
Someone has got to be studying that, VLF radio emissions, etc. but I’ve heard very little in the way of results or non-results, which are important too. Personally I’d focus on ground issues and look for piezoelectric activity and subsonic audio. RF stuff is a derivitive effect.
_____________
Since you asked here is a link to a geologist that has been studying a whole spectrum of electromagnetic effects for at least 10 to 15 years, I have had some communication with him over the years, and added to his tip jar a couple times, well worth the read of the whole site….
http://www.geo-seismic-labs.org/
I think it is unlikely that the toads are reacting to the earthquake itself. Let’s face it: Toads are so low to the ground they’re unlikely to even fall over in an earthquake, and living in a pond has its advantages in respect of nothing dropping on you.
The tsunami danger is likely to be limited too.
So there are many questions to be answered such as: What *are* they reacting to?
IMHO, it is electrical activity. I would imagine toads on sensing a rising potential would vacate the pond. Being in a body of water when lightning hits it would probably smart quite a bit.
In other words, this sensitivity to earthquakes is probably accidental. But that doesn’t mean we can’t exploit it.
Do you have any idea how many earth tremors/quakes are happening at any given time?
Should be a “NO BRAINER” to prove the correlation between ‘VLF’ and earth tremors but the thin-theories proposed on this subject I am of the mind they won’t bear fruit/yield results.
Speaking as a ham, who has listened to his fair share of ‘dead air’ … the ONLY source of ‘noise’ (besides the man-made variety) have been SOLAR sources* (witnessed one day six years ago and confirmed the solar source with the plotted results of the HAARP VHF Riometer operating at/near 30 MHz) …
Current real-time HAARP VHF Riometer readings: http://137.229.36.30/cgi-bin/riometer/riom2_sel.cgi
Quake sheet; last hour, day, week: http://www.drudgereport.com/quake.htm
* A few exceptions, e.g. Jupiter noise: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2004/20feb_radiostorms.htm and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio_astronomy
Wickipedia: VLF – Very low frequency or VLF refers to radio frequencies (RF) in the range of 3 kHz to 30 kHz. Most ppl should be able to hear half that range … a couple probes ‘stuck in the earth’ and you’ll hear whistlers: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whistler_(radio)
Some recordings: http://www-pw.physics.uiowa.edu/mcgreevy/
NASA on-line (live): http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/inspire.html (Note: INSPIRE)
Build your own whistler receiver: http://www.stormwise.com/project5.htm
MODS, TAKE NOTE: THIS IS NOT A HAARP POST but is serious science post.
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Not sure last post made it …
Do you have any idea how many earth tremors/quakes are happening at any given time?
Should be a “NO BRAINER” to prove the correlation between ‘VLF’ and earth tremors but the thin-theories proposed on this subject I am of the mind they won’t bear fruit/yield results.
Quake sheet; last hour, day, week: http://www.drudgereport.com/quake.htm
Wickipedia: VLF – Very low frequency or VLF refers to radio frequencies (RF) in the range of 3 kHz to 30 kHz. Most ppl should be able to hear half that range … a couple probes ‘stuck in the earth’ and you’ll hear whistlers: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whistler_(radio)
Some recordings: http://www-pw.physics.uiowa.edu/mcgreevy/
NASA on-line (live): http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/inspire.html (Note: INSPIRE)
Build your own whistler receiver: http://www.stormwise.com/project5.htm
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An addenda (which caused the hold-up of the previous post attempt) –
Speaking as a ham, who has listened to his fair share of ‘dead air’ … the ONLY source of ‘noise’ (besides the man-made variety) have been SOLAR sources* (witnessed one day six years ago and confirmed the solar source with the plotted results of the H A A R P VHF Riometer operating at/near 30 MHz) …
Current real-time H A A R P VHF Riometer readings: http://137.229.36.30/cgi-bin/riometer/riom2_sel.cgi
* A few exceptions, e.g. Jupiter noise: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2004/20feb_radiostorms.htm and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio_astronomy
Note, mods, there is the legitimate use of a word above that causes a post to go straight down the rabbit hole …
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An addenda (which caused the hold-up of the previous post attempt) –
Speaking as a ham, who has listened to his fair share of ‘dead air’ … the ONLY source of ‘noise’ (besides the man-made variety) i have experienced has been SOLAR sources* (witnessed one day six years ago and confirmed the solar source with the plotted results of the xxxxxxxx VHF Riometer operating at/near 30 MHz) …
Current real-time xxxxxxxxx VHF Riometer readings: http://137.229.36.30/cgi-bin/riometer/riom2_sel.cgi
* A few exceptions, e.g. Jupiter noise: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2004/20feb_radiostorms.htm and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio_astronomy
Note, mods, there is the legitimate use of a word above that causes a post to go straight down the rabbit hole …
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Anthony, you have a talent for finding relevant images, and you’ve outdone yourself.
Re: _Jim (17:41:22), (17:52:49), (18:18:43), and (18:22:41)
Okay, I give up. Just what is it you were so worried about that you thought things wouldn’t post because of it?
The following is my critique of the findings of the scientists:
1. What controls were in place to ensure the detectability of the presence of the two person scientific team remained as consistent as possible to the toads during the 29 days?
2. You state quite clearly this has not been observed before, so this is simply one observation.
3. The behavior of only 90 male toads is considered from only one location.
4. The males fled but supposedly not the females, so what attribute distinct to male toads is suggested here?
5. The scientist notes that the male toads usually never leave the mating site early. So, was this a case of a normal “usual” leaving coinciding with an earthquake days later?
I suggest this is not an indication that male toads have an insight into pending earthquakes. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.
Sorry, but the image of fleeing toads conjures up so many metaphorical possibilities that my brain just shut down.
Here is an example of trying to use electric signals as precursors of earthquakes:
http://arxiv.org/pdf/0711.3766
Classical seismology can “predict” with a few year horizon, from historical records and the gathering of stresses at faults. This is useful for prevention planning and building codes.
These people “predict” for a week or ten days. The difference is that in a population where people’s ancestors have survived because they jumped out of a bed fast, the panic gene is strong, and a newspaper article coming out saying: “the Varotsos team predicts an earthquake within so many days” is very stressful and economically damaging, particularly when it does not happen.
And the prediction areas are so large, that the whole thing is useless except for study for improvements, imo. Should never be given to the media.
It can’t be the toads
‘Cause everyone knows
It’s turtles all the way down.
“Eager to answer the riddle, Grant obtained Russian measurements of electrical activity in the ionosphere, the uppermost electromagnetic layer in the atmosphere, which were picked up by very low frequency (VLF) radio receivers”.
No brainer for the plasma model – measure the earth’s electric field in earthquake prone regions. Earthquakes in this view are subterranean electric discharges that occur after a period of internal electric charge build up.
I saw the earliest earth quake seismoscope before. I heard it still works these days.
Ric Werme
“The whole animal precursor stuff is fascinating but annoyingly anecdotal. ”
Seriously, because it’s complete rubbish. Some of the logic here reminds me of people trying to use ball lightning to explain crop circles when it was two blokes in a pub having a laugh. Animals behave in unexpected ways all the time.