I’ve decided to step away from WUWT this weekend. Both my wife and I are sick with a cold. I’m very tired, and I need to do something else for awhile besides moderate squabbles; like work on my paper which keeps getting time taken away from it by the attention this blog requires.
If you have something worth posting on the front page, flag a moderator. Those that want to do guest posts are welcome to do so also. Again, flag a moderator for attention. Those that have author permission already, go for it.
I’ll resume posting if I feel up to it Sunday night.
In the meantime, talk quietly and politely amongst yourselves. Don’t make me come back here.
– Anthony
Indian Ocean tsunami warning system
23 December 2005
When the Indian Ocean tsunami struck, the only warning most people in the region had was the sight of a giant wave heading towards them.
Unlike the Pacific, the Indian Ocean did not have a system to alert residents of coastal areas that a tsunami was imminent.
In the aftermath of the disaster, scientists and governments, under the auspices of the UN, began working on an early warning system for the region.
Tsunami early warning ‘next year’
12 January, 2005
A tsunami early warning system for the Indian Ocean could be up and running by the middle of next year, Unesco head Koichiro Matsuura has said.
The head of the UN’s cultural and scientific agency said a $30m system could be in place by June 2006, with a global one to follow a year later.
Planned Indian Ocean Tsunami Alarm System Treading Water
Monday, July 31, 2006
On Monday, more than 150 regional officials, aid workers and donors gather on Indonesia’s resort island of Bali to discuss the $126 million Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System.
They hope to come away from the U.N. meeting with a timeline for implementing the network — at least two years away — and detailed plans from the 27 affected countries for disseminating alerts and evacuating the public.
New Approach In Tsunami-Early Warning System
ScienceDaily (Nov. 11, 2008) — The newly implemented Tsunami Early Warning System for the Indian Ocean, GITEWS, goes into operation today and with this, the system enters its final phase of optimisation. As foreseen, the system was officially handed over to the BMKG (Meteorological, Climatology and Geophysical Agency of Indonesia) by the President of Indonesia, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, in the Indonesian capital Jakarta, slightly less than four years after the catastrophe of 2004.
Tsunami Alert System Starts Up in Indonesia
Four years after the mother of all monster waves struck, Indian Ocean countries will know of a possible tsunami just 3 minutes after an earthquake.
If the Moderators will permit, I’d like to alert everyone to a new on-line store offering goodies for Climate Realists:
http://www.zazzle.com/climaterealist
They have three image-themes, which are imprinted on shirts, hats, bumper stickers, mugs, buttons, and paper stickers:
• A colorful logo image of Sun and Earth with the words “CLIMATE REALIST.” Makes a great hat!
• A red-hot Earth surrounded by the legend, “COOKING THE BOOKS, NOT THE PLANET,” and printed on the Earth, “TURN UP THE HEAT ON CLIMATE ALARMISTS.”
• Two silhouettes of feet, one labeled “Bigfoot Track,” the other “Carbon Footprint,” and the question, “WHAT DO YOU BELIEVE?”
This is not my store, and I have no financial connection to it. But if you’re confident enough to announce your disdain of the Alarmists to the world, these products are a really cool way to do it. Take a look!
/Mr Lynn
Laughter, as always, is the best medicine. Get well soon, Anthony and Mrs. Anthony.
WARNING: Video contains bango-playing and Vikings.
Don’t make me come back here.
– Anthony
LMAO!!!!!!!
we can say almost any thing now lol
i___ s__ …. there i said it!
[And I fixed it. neener. ~dbs, mod.]
[And I fixed it. neener. ~dbs, mod.
rotfl
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groovology
Whiskey, honey, lemon, chicken soup and wife over a weekend sound like a perfect cure.
Here’s some reading for you Anthony. Curl up in bed with a lap top and enjoy Richard Feynman.
CARGO CULT SCIENCE by Richard Feynman
http://pathstoknowledge.net/2010/02/19/cargo-cult-science-a-lesson-from-richard-feynman-for-scientists-of-today-to-learn
“During the Middle Ages there were all kinds of crazy ideas, such as that a piece of rhinoceros horn would increase potency. Then a method was discovered for separating the ideas–which was to try one to see if it worked, and if it didn’t work, to eliminate it. This method became organized, of course, into science. And it developed very well, so that we are now in the scientific age. It is such a scientific age, in fact that we have difficulty in understanding how witch doctors could ever have existed, when nothing that they proposed ever really worked–or very little of it did.
But even today I meet lots of people who sooner or later get me into a conversation about UFOS, or astrology, or some form of mysticism, expanded consciousness, new types of awareness, ESP, and so forth. And I’ve concluded that it’s not a scientific world.
Most people believe so many wonderful things that I decided to investigate why they did. And what has been referred to as my curiosity for investigation has landed me in a difficulty where I found so much junk that I’m overwhelmed. First I started out by investigating various ideas of mysticism, and mystic experiences. I went into isolation tanks and got many hours of hallucinations, so I know something about that. Then I went to Esalen, which is a hotbed of this kind of thought (it’s a wonderful place; you should go visit there). Then I became overwhelmed. I didn’t realize how much there was.
At Esalen there are some large baths fed by hot springs situated on a ledge about thirty feet above the ocean. One of my most pleasurable experiences has been to sit in one of those baths and watch the waves crashing onto the rocky shore below, to gaze into the clear blue sky above, and to study a beautiful nude as she quietly appears and settles into the bath with me.
One time I sat down in a bath where there was a beautiful girl sitting with a guy who didn’t seem to know her. Right away I began thinking, “Gee! How am I gonna get started talking to this beautiful nude babe?”
I’m trying to figure out what to say, when the guy says to her, I’m, uh, studying massage. Could I practice on you?”
“Sure,” she says. They get out of the bath and she lies down on a massage table nearby.
I think to myself, “What a nifty line! I can never think of anything like that!” He starts to rub her big toe. “I think I feel it, “he says. “I feel a kind of dent–is that the pituitary?”
I blurt out, “You’re a helluva long way from the pituitary, man!”
They looked at me, horrified–I had blown my cover–and said, “It’s reflexology!”
I quickly closed my eyes and appeared to be meditating.
That’s just an example of the kind of things that overwhelm me. I also looked into extrasensory perception and PSI phenomena, and the latest craze there was Uri Geller, a man who is supposed to be able to bend keys by rubbing them with his finger. So I went to his hotel room, on his invitation, to see a demonstration of both mindreading and bending keys. He didn’t do any mindreading that succeeded; nobody can read my mind, I guess. And my boy held a key and Geller rubbed it, and nothing happened. Then he told us it works better under water, and so you can picture all of us standing in the bathroom with the water turned on and the key under it, and him rubbing the key with his finger. Nothing happened. So I was unable to investigate that phenomenon.
But then I began to think, what else is there that we believe? (And I thought then about the witch doctors, and how easy it would have been to cheek on them by noticing that nothing really worked.) So I found things that even more people believe, such as that we have some knowledge of how to educate. There are big schools of reading methods and mathematics methods, and so forth, but if you notice, you’ll see the reading scores keep going down–or hardly going up in spite of the fact that we continually use these same people to improve the methods. There’s a witch doctor remedy that doesn’t work. It ought to be looked into; how do they know that their method should work? Another example is how to treat criminals. We obviously have made no progress–lots of theory, but no progress– in decreasing the amount of crime by the method that we use to handle criminals.
Yet these things are said to be scientific. We study them. And I think ordinary people with commonsense ideas are intimidated by this pseudoscience. A teacher who has some good idea of how to teach her children to read is forced by the school system to do it some other way–or is even fooled by the school system into thinking that her method is not necessarily a good one. Or a parent of bad boys, after disciplining them in one way or another, feels guilty for the rest of her life because she didn’t do “the right thing,” according to the experts.
So we really ought to look into theories that don’t work, and science that isn’t science.
…
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It is interesting, therefore, to bring it out now and speak of it explicitly. It’s a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty–a kind of leaning over backwards. For example, if you’re doing an experiment, you should report everything that you think might make it invalid–not only what you think is right about it: other causes that could possibly explain your results; and things you thought of that you’ve eliminated by some other experiment, and how they worked–to make sure the other fellow can tell they have been eliminated.
Details that could throw doubt on your interpretation must be given, if you know them. You must do the best you can–if you know anything at all wrong, or possibly wrong–to explain it. If you make a theory, for example, and advertise it, or put it out, then you must also put down all the facts that disagree with it, as well as those that agree with it. There is also a more subtle problem. When you have put a lot of ideas together to make an elaborate theory, you want to make sure, when explaining what it fits, that those things it fits are not just the things that gave you the idea for the theory; but that the finished theory makes something else come out right, in addition.
In summary, the idea is to try to give all of the information to help others to judge the value of your contribution; not just the information that leads to judgment in one particular direction or another.
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We’ve learned from experience that the truth will come out. Other experimenters will repeat your experiment and find out whether you were wrong or right. Nature’s phenomena will agree or they’ll disagree with your theory. And, although you may gain some temporary fame and excitement, you will not gain a good reputation as a scientist if you haven’t tried to be very careful in this kind of work. And it’s this type of integrity, this kind of care not to fool yourself, that is missing to a large extent in much of the research in cargo cult science.
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The first principle is that you must not fool yourself–and you are the easiest person to fool. So you have to be very careful about that. After you’ve not fooled yourself, it’s easy not to fool other scientists. You just have to be honest in a conventional way after that.
I would like to add something that’s not essential to the science, but something I kind of believe, which is that you should not fool the layman when you’re talking as a scientist. I am not trying to tell you what to do about cheating on your wife, or fooling your girlfriend, or something like that, when you’re not trying to be a scientist, but just trying to be an ordinary human being. We’ll leave those problems up to you and your rabbi. I’m talking about a specific, extra type of integrity that is not lying, but bending over backwards to show how you are maybe wrong, that you ought to have when acting as a scientist. And this is our responsibility as scientists, certainly to other scientists, and I think to laymen.
For example, I was a little surprised when I was talking to a friend who was going to go on the radio. He does work on cosmology and astronomy, and he wondered how he would explain what the applications of this work were. “Well,” I said, “there aren’t any.” He said, “Yes, but then we won’t get support for more research of this kind.” I think that’s kind of dishonest. If you’re representing yourself as a scientist, then you should explain to the layman what you’re doing–and if they don’t want to support you under those circumstances, then that’s their decision.
One example of the principle is this: If you’ve made up your mind to test a theory, or you want to explain some idea, you should always decide to publish it whichever way it comes out. If we only publish results of a certain kind, we can make the argument look good. We must publish both kinds of results.
I say that’s also important in giving certain types of government advice. Supposing a senator asked you for advice about whether drilling a hole should be done in his state; and you decide it would be better in some other state. If you don’t publish such a result, it seems to me you’re not giving scientific advice. You’re being used. If your answer happens to come out in the direction the government or the politicians like, they can use it as an argument in their favor; if it comes out the other way, they don’t publish it at all. That’s not giving scientific advice.
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So I have just one wish for you–the good luck to be somewhere where you are free to maintain the kind of integrity I have described, and where you do not feel forced by a need to maintain your position in the organization, or financial support, or so on, to lose your integrity. May you have that freedom.”
Read the full article by Richard Feynman here: http://pathstoknowledge.net/2010/02/19/cargo-cult-science-a-lesson-from-richard-feynman-for-scientists-of-today-to-learn. Also see the video interviews of this amazing scientist.
Of course where the alleged AGW hypothesis and it’s advocates fail is in NOT providing all of the information. The AGW advocates fail to state where their ideas fall short of the objective reality of Nature. They also fail to provide balanced views to government.
pwl
http://PathsToKnowledge.net
Hay something …. no watts effect, the sun maybe having it’s first spotless day from 45days ago!1!!
Another loss due to climate change, the drought extinguishes Venezuela’s lightning phoenomena: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/mar/05/venezuela-lightning-el-nino
“It has always been with us,” said Edin Hernandez, 62. “It guides us at night, like a lighthouse. We miss it.”
Luke Skywarmer (17:20:52) :
Don’t make me come back here.
– Anthony
LMAO!!!!!!!
we can say almost any thing now lol
i___ s__ …. there i said it!
[And I fixed it. neener. ~dbs, mod.]
Oh, I’m sure Maledicta could figure it out.
Philemon (14:21:34) :
For a cold, I usually use lots of Puffs, some Robitussin, some Vix Vapor Rub, and a shot of NyQuil before bed.
My spouse says jala neti, (saline irrigation of the sinuses) is good. My mother swears by apricot juice. I cannot endorse either from personal experience due to the thought of either making me feel sick even when I don’t have a virus.
I’ve had an accidental saline irrigation of the sinuses (swimming in the sea). In a word: Don’t.
It stings like a
Hope our host gets better soon.
The Ap is back up to the bottom!!!
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Ap.gif
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/07/suns-magnetic-index-reaches-unprecedent-low-only-zero-could-be-lower-in-a-month-when-sunspots-became-more-active/
Philemon (17:50:11) :
Luke Skywarmer (17:20:52) :
Don’t make me come back here.
– Anthony
LMAO!!!!!!!
we can say almost any thing now lol
i___ s__ …. there i said it!
[And I fixed it. neener. ~dbs, mod.]
Oh, I’m sure Maledicta could figure it out.
Likely not, but I’m sure it pleased Oliver.
/dr.bill
To get to the Tips section, look toward the end of the sidebar for the heading “Pages” and click on the entry for Tips & Notes.
[Note: on some computers the headings do not all appear unless the screen size is expanded. ~dbs, mod.]
Nasal Lavage is a soothing washing-out of the sinuses, and actually feels very good. However, you must use an isotonic solution of salt, one which is very close to the natural fluids of the body (such as tears). The formula is one cup of warm water, 1/4 tsp salt, and 1/4 tsp baking soda (though it is not absolutely necessary to use the baking soda). You can also use this formula when you want to rinse out your eyes, and it will not hurt or sting (unless there is some pre-existing sore). The solution can be delivered a number of ways, as long as excessive force is not employed. A bulb syringe, such as is used in cleaning out a baby’s nose, or a water-pik with a special adapter, or a neti-pot (which looks a lot like a teapot).
My husband made gentle fun of me for doing nasal lavage, until he had a small growth in his sinuses which needed to be excised surgically. The surgeon recommended nasal lavage afterward. My husband found that it is also very nice for times when he works around a lot of particulates, or when there is a heavy pollen count. He uses an old syringe, without the needle.
Luke Skywarmer (18:13:10) :
The Ap is back up to the bottom!!!
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Ap.gif
Luke, the SWPC still does not plot/calculate things correctly. Ap is up [of course – as it should be], but for February 2010, the monthly mean was 4.7 and not 4 [as the SWPC graph shows]. The error SWPC commits is to always TRUNCATE values, so 4.99 [and 4.7] will be shown as 4.0. This doesn’t matter much when Ap is 15 or 20, but does matter when Ap is low [as now].
since this is an open thread: How do some of the posters do bold, underline, italics etc.? I don’t see any instructions on how to do it anywhere.
[Reply: the internet is loaded with HTML tutorials. Do a search & find one you like. In the mean time, this should get you started: Bold = <b>bold</b>
Italic = <i>italic</i>. Put the brackets as shown around the word(s) you want to be bold or in italics. Practice on a month old thread until you’ve got it.~dbs, mod.]
I’ve read that a scientific study found to kill a virus in the early stage a hot bath followed by heavy-blanket bed rest works.
Leif Svalgaard (19:09:55) :
Luke Skywarmer (18:13:10) :
The Ap is back up to the bottom!!!
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Ap.gif
Luke, the SWPC still does not plot/calculate things correctly.
I should note that this is the case with preliminary values only [that they calculate themselves]. Once definitive values are available from Potsdam, then SWPC backfills with the correct values [finally, after I have harassed them about this for months 🙂 }
Take a week off. Tend to wife. Tend to paper. Tend to business. Come back rested.
And to the chicken soup I would add some ground white pepper–try it a little at a time, some people really don’t like it.
I find it does wonders for a clogged head, but it is, to be crude, kinda like a laxitive for your head.
But you want to drink it, pepper or no, out of a big mug.
I also agree on the nose flushing. We use a product from…..dang, i FORGOT.
Here it is: http://www.neilmed.com/usa/index.php somebody menttioned the neti pot–we like the plastic squeeze bottle. If you do it right, it iws kinda gross, but it really does work.
But the chicken soup tastes better.
Anthony, S – L – E – E – P.
Anthony,
Good health to you. Hope things improve in the next few days. Thank goodness you weren’t incapacitated last November and December. Your devastating articles simply broke the back of the climate fraudsters at the most critical time, just before and during Copehagen. You deserve a rest.
Just a thought to mull over while you are recovering. Why has there been nothing revealed in the investigation of the Climategate leaks? You would think by now there would be something to report. Almost certainly it was done by someone who worked in IT at CRU, and that limits it to just several dozen employees. Could it be he is cooperating with the authorities and opening more doors?
Effects of sunspots on the Earth:
http://www.popsci.com/archive-viewer?id=miwDAAAAMBAJ&pg=366&query=sunspot
from a 1878 perspective.
~dbs, mod.]
You are da man. I wish that I could meet people like you in my every day life.