Happy to help Jack. WUWT readers you have less than 30 minutes h/t to John Goetz
FROM CNN’s Jack Cafferty:
As the debate continues about global warming, the month of December was the 14th coldest in 115 years in the United States… and some scientists insist the earth is entering a cooling trend.
- Wind chills brought temperatures in the Dakotas to 50 degrees below zero, while record cold in parts of Florida is damaging some of the orange crops, and South Carolina called an early end to shrimping season.
- Parts of Canada have seen actual temperatures of 30 below zero… And freezing temperatures and record snowfalls are pounding parts of Asia and Europe too.
- Britain has experienced the worst snowfalls in half a century.
- In India – it’s estimated at least 100 people have died due to the cold temperatures… with dozens more killed in Bangladesh.
- In China and South Korea, heavy snow and unusually cold weather have brought chaos to travelers – blocking roads and trains, canceling flights. After one recent blizzard in Beijing – officials had more than 300-thousand people clearing the streets.
Meanwhile some of the world’s top climate scientists suggest this winter is only the start of a worldwide trend toward cooler weather, which could last for 20 to 30 years. They base their predictions on changes in water temperatures in the oceans.
The scientists say much of the global warming in the last century was actually caused by these oceanic cycles when they were in a “warm mode”… as opposed to the current “cold mode.” They suggest there will be cooler summers ahead too.
It’s the kind of research that could undermine lots of what we’ve been told about the warming of the Earth being caused only by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.
Here’s my question to you: How has this winter affected your belief in global warming?
Tune in to the Situation Room at 6pm to see if Jack reads your answer on air.
And, we love to know where you’re writing from, so please include your city and state with your comment.
I left a comment but now I feel like I need to wash my laptop screen.
I would be careful with things like this. It may be that they select only the least intelligent comments for publishing. Seems a favored tactic of the AGW crowd.
Natural climate cycles such as ocean state can all line up to produce a lot of warming, and cooling, as the case may be. If the majority of them concur to a warming or positive state, you get global warming. If concur negative, global cooling.
There are many differing and contrary thesis as to how Earth climate phases can shift, but for the last 20 or so years, they have been held under water by an unscrupulous lot.
Now, it’s time for the Alarmists to sit down and zip it.
They had thier day, they were wrong and didn’t play by the rules.
Give them thier pinks slips. “You’re fired”.
Cooler heads (no pun intended) have to prevail, and let’s get this OMG it’s blah blah blah catastrophic emergency slam on the brakes, shut it all down hysteria into the proper waste receptacle.
Yes, I did somewhat believe it at first, but then I started looking for myself.
That’s when I found out how rotten AGW was.
Confirmation!
I never believed in global warming. The recent cooling has both delighted and concerned me. It delighted me because it made me hope that record-breaking cold would cause people in general to spend more time looking at the evidence themselves instead of allowing themselves to be told what to think. And it concerned me because a colder Earth is going to make it more of a challenge to raise food and conduct business as usual. I am a computer professional in Oklahoma.
Here’s what I put in…
I look at what’s going on – and if it’s a ‘crisis’ it’s remarkable how raising taxes on fuel of all kinds is going to fix it. I don’t see any sort of leadership worldwide that is acting like it’s a crisis – all I see are folks looking to glom onto my money through more taxation. And I wouldn’t mind it if they were actually BEHAVING like it’s a crisis – like building nuclear power plants, solar plants, and wind plants to drop our carbon emissions – but they’re not. Solar plants get cancelled, nuclear power plants get stalled, and the enviros go nuts over wind because it chops up birds.
And THIS winter’s the coldest one in a long time. So – tell me again why I should believe them when they insist there’s a crisis and the only thing that they do to fix it is try to raise my taxes?
—————-
Funny how that ‘crisis’ stuff works, isn’t it?
In other news, this story made me shudder: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,582876,00.html
Not that I expect the UN to do a good job in fighting corruption in itself…but I at least like it when corrupt government bodies pretend they are trying to be honest.
nok (15:09:36) :
when he says 50/30 degrees, what scale does he mean?
Fahrenheit.
The GC Models did not forecast cooling even up to the last second and probably still couldn’t account for it in hindsight. AGWers are missing a great opportunity to vindicate the abilities of the models to make enlightened prognostication. All they’d need to do is show where this cooling was forecast (while it was still future of course) in anything “peer” reviewed. Like a stopped clock I suppose they could be right once in a while…but why 20-30 years from now? Snake oil salespersons: all stock now selling at bargain prices.
Wow The Economist really is looking for punishment – what rubbish they published on Jan 11th 2010.
The Economist says that those who doubt the REALITY of man-made climate change are “foolish and facile”. Actually, in my case, I have a degree in Physics and studied graduate level atmospheric phsyics but I am still a fool because I don’t understand how anyone can conclude that CO2 is a big factor in climate change. According to the “facile” math and physics I studied, CO2 clearly has a negligible effect.
In this article they state “In the case of the bitter easterlies that have brought Britain colder, snowier weather than has been seen for a couple of decades, the proverbial benefit has been felt by the more foolish and facile of those who doubt the reality or likelihood of man-made climate change.”
http://www.economist.com/world/international/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15262021
I suggest that all you other “fools and facile” people write to The Economist and complain over this insult – there is a LINK where you can comment on the nonsense that is this article.
“Kum Dollison (14:56:53) :
UAH has January (Globally) coming in “sizzling” hot.”
They really need to get a new PR firm.
Announcing this winter as anything “warm” will be a PR nightmare.
Just like when they discovered the “decline” and immediately ramped up
their propaganda for a few years, and got caught at that too.
Has anyone kept up with exactly how many “tipping points” we have seen
come and go?
“How has this winter affected your belief in global warming?”
Not a bit, as I never believed in global warming.
Paul
Meanwhile some of the world’s top climate scientists suggest this winter is only the start of a worldwide trend toward cooler weather, which could last for 20 to 30 years. They base their predictions on changes in water temperatures in the oceans.
This is exactly the effect that woudl be expected if Svensmark theories are correct – more low cloud cover over the oceans and therefore a cooling of ocean surface temperatures.
Look at the last month and last year temperature anomalies. Even now, some places in the northern hemisphere are warm. This just adds to my suspicion that the proxy temperature reconstructions flatline outside of the calibration period because they are averaging noise. Climate is stable it does seem to wander around a mid-point, sometimes high, sometimes low. We tend to have very short memories, and have a tendency to worry about things (probably a survival instinct)
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
Jack:
Amatuer “Meteorologist” here. Been that for about 5 years. I began predicting this in September/October.
Reflected VISIBLE LIGHT started going up…87 watts per square meter in Sept., 97 in October, 114 in November and 120.4 in December.
This is commensurate with Dr. Svensmark’s “Cosmic Ray/Cloud Cover” theory. (The data comes from the NASA: NEO site.)
Rather than let ANECDOTAL approaches rule my logic, I’m trying to use HARD DATA. But I will go out on a limb and say this: We haven’t seen the “end” of this winter, by 1/2…yet! End of January can, and may well bring a set of NEW TEMPERATURE LOW records. February and March, due to the seasonal zonal humidity/jet stream balances probably will bring some WHOPPER snow storms, here and in Europe.
But, then as the saying goes: “What do I know?”..
Yours,
Mark Hugo, B.S. Chemical Engineering
B.S. Metallurgy, M.S. Mechanical (Heat Transfer/Radiation Heat Transfer emphasis), P.E. Electrical, P.E. Mechanical
20 Years Nuclear Power, 4 years Medical Devices..
‘Climategate’ professor Michael Mann protected ‘to maximum extent’ by Penn State policy
Henry “Hank” Foley, the new vice president for research and dean of the graduate school, will hold professor Michael Mann’s academic future in his hands if an internal inquiry, now under way, sparks an investigation that finds Mann broke university policy…
So, the team consists of Foley, plus William Brune, Mann’s boss, who has headed Penn State’s meteorology department for about a decade, and Candice Yekel, director of the Office of Research Protections, who reports to Foley.
If the committee feels the allegations warrant further scrutiny, Foley will appoint another committee — this time five tenured professors who have “no conflicts of interest and are competent to evaluate the issues objectively.”..
http://dailycaller.com/2010/01/12/climategate-professor-michael-mann-protected-to-maximum-extent-by-penn-state-policy/
Hello WUWT:
Here is what I wrote to Jack Cafferty (scientist: please don’t be critical of my technical errors-hopefully my explanation is close enough for CNN viewers):
“Hello Jack Cafferty,
The recent northern hemisphere cold-snap has not altered my opinion regarding Anthropegenic Global Warming. What we have lived through in the last 50 years is nothing more than natural variability in our climate. Humans may have the ability to slightly exacerbate natural variability; however, we cannot create or alter climate change greatly.
The Earth’s only major source of climate energy is the Sun (cosmic rays and other deep space energy forms may affect our climate to a small degree).
Unfortunately, the Sun’s burn rate is variable. The magnetic field that shields the Earth is affected by sunspots, coronal mass ejections, and other energy forms emitted by our star. Our Earth travels an eliptical orbit around the Sun and our Earth’s axis point wobbles which causes precession; both of these things affect our climate. Don’t forget that the obliquity of the ecliptic is also dynamic.
The dynamics that affect our ocean’s currents are not understood. Cosmic rays from outer space may affect cloud formation, thus altering total solar irradience.
Volcanoes…remember Pinatubo in the early 1990s?
Any human being thinking himself brilliant enough to predict the enourmous number of factors that affect our climate, and extrapolate any climate trend, is fool enough to fall for a religion called Anthropenic Global Warming.
Thanks, MarkM”
Thanks for the education Anthony, and everybody else that participates on this site.
markm
Here’s my question to you: How has this winter affected your belief in global warming?
That the earth warmed in the last half of the 20th century is not in question. If you mean how has this winter affected my belief in Anthropogenic Global Warming, I never accepted the premise that the warming was due to increased CO2. Last fall I was talking to some parents at my son’s high school and mentioned that because both the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) had flipped into their cold phase that this winter, and the winters for the next 20-30 years, were going to be colder. I got some very cold stares in return. Oh well.
And, we love to know where you’re writing from, so please include your city and state with your comment.
Gaithersburg, MD
Mike Ramsey
During the last Maunder Minimum (mid-1600’s to early 1700’s), there was a marked increase in earthquake and volcanic activity…it’s true, look it up.
“L Nettles (15:06:25) :
I didn’t believe the Coming Ice Age of the 1970’s, I expected a reversion to the mean, I got it. Didn’t believe in AGW I expected a reversion to the mean, I’m getting that now.”
Reversion to the mean of the last 1 million years, or even 100,000 years is actually reversion to ice age conditions. Interglacials such as today occur only 10% of the time, the other 90% or so has been glacial periods ( ice age), when glaciers extend to Pennsylvania and sea levels are 100 meters lower, and there is a land bridge to Asia, and the British isles are part of the European mainland. The last interglacial maximum was actually 3-5 deg C warmer than today, and sea levels were much higher (at least 6 meters IIRC).
So we may very well have more warming before the next ice age. Point being, man is unlikely to be responsible for it, it’s part of the natural cycle. In fact, as far as climate goes, the last 600,000 years are considered to be quite stable despite the extremes, so you can imagine what unstable is.
Thats why 99.9% of all species that ever existed are extinct, they could not adopt. Given our dependence on agriculture, I am not sure man will be able to either.
Good book on climate history called Heaven and Earth (unfortunate title) by Ian Plimer.
The GC moded based forecasters got the long-range wrong. They didn’t just miss it by a little bit, they got it totally backwards. NOAA, Met Office, GISS etc. struck out at the plate.
Do we really need to wait 30 years for these impostors and thier phony models that can’t predict the past or future to get lucky? In the meantime, there are 30 winters, springs, summers and falls at risk. There is no room here to suffer fools gladly.
Clean house.
There is something to be said for private enterprise who depend on accuracy for survival as opposed to those in government-funded institutions that are allowed to flunk repeatedly and remain standing.
Whom do you trust?
all he got from me was a “hit”.
what makes you think they don’t already know it’s a lie?
I’m in Eastern Canada. This is the warmest winter I can remember. Wonder why there’s a warm spell here and everywhere else is getting hit by record cold. Heck, it’s gonna above freezing this weekend in the middle of January. Crazy!
Hi.
I read this blog daily but have never posted a comment.
I just left a comment on the CNN thing; this is about. But being in the UK I’m not sure what 6pm is in real money???
Can anyone give me some help. Like how far ahead or behind they are?
thanks