I’m off this weekend and part of next week– talk quietly and politely amongst yourselves. Don’t make me come back here.
If you have something worth posting on the front page, flag a moderator. Those that want to do guest posts are welcome to do so also. Again, flag a moderator for attention. I’ll update when I can but I have quite a busy schedule in the next week that will keep me offline for extended periods.
– Anthony
TonyB 05: 32: 58:
Oops! I must have read that bit wrong! A fascinating article of yours, Tony, and I look forward to the rest of the series. Now I must hurry off to Tesco to get some more £2.99 reading glasses.
To Bob Tisdale: If Hansen is somewhere in my neck of the woods, SF Bay Area, I haven’t heard or seen any headlines.
anna v (07:21:02) :
It would be good to have the wind pattern in the arctic, but I cannot find it.
Try here: http://wxmaps.org/pix/hemi.fcst.html
There are a variety of charts pressure, temp etc. but maybe you want this one:
200mb Streamlines & Isotachs – http://wxmaps.org/pix/hemi.jet.html
Wind is looking like the most likely culprit.
Ursus and all,
Check out Gordon Fulks PhD comment on the polar bear story.
He nails it.
http://www.oregonlive.com/tigard/index.ssf/2009/11/studying_polar_bears_gives_southridge_student_a_lesson_on_global_warming.html
Simple but effective –
Steve S. (10:33:41) :
from the article
“Using children to promote any propaganda and especially Global
Warming hysteria is wrong. They don’t have the experience to
separate fact from fiction and need to be protected from predatory
adults.”
“predatory adults”
Perhaps we need to start an international registry.
D. King (11:14:53) :
from the article
Sorry!
from the article comments.
To-
NZ Willy (21:19:44)
Here is a clue from the Alaska ice service–
remember that Alaska gets its data
(LIVE HUMAN OBSERVATIONS)from fishing
trawlers and icebreakers —
AND ALASKA FROWNS UPON AGW–
http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/data/ice/ice.png
THE ALASKA MAP SHOWS TWICE AS MUCH ICE
AS ANY OF THE POPULAR ICE MAPS BEING
TOUTED ON THIS SITE AND ELSEWHERE–
Of course Alaskans only live there . . .
Stating the answer diplomatically–
the mapmakers are lying.
Here is one map that doesn’t
lie too much–
(cache it quickly before
the Watts effect erases it)
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/hires/global.xml
And here is a very obscure quote from Hadley–
“States: Passive microwave underestimates sea ice concentrations by an average of 25% in summer
(but the underestimate can be more than this) and 5-10% in winter. …. its mostly all in one direction.
(Met Office, Hadley Centre)”
http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=globalwarming&action=display&thread=346&page=114#30005
http://ioc3.unesco.org/oopc/meetings/oopc-9/presentations/monPM/Rayner_OOPC9_pr.pdf
http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=globalwarming&action=display&thread=346&page=96
As well, violent icebreaker activity is clearly visible
as scattered and smashed old ice in these actual satellite photos
(which also show completely refrozen sea ice–pale green and white)–
lower right–
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?2009253/crefl1_143.A2009253000000-2009253000459.250m.jpg
winds and currents do not smash and scatter
heavy sea ice as shown in these photos–
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?2009252/crefl1_143.A2009252205000-2009252205459.250m.jpg
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/2009252/?multiple&resolutionlist
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/Ice_Can/Arctic/CVCSWSDNCW.gif
quite a bit can be gleaned from these photos.
also from
http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=globalwarming&action=display&thread=346&page=95
“Jaxa (AMSR-E) isn’t faulty, just (the algorithms are) badly calibrated, and skips
all ice extent less than about 80-90% as I’ve shown many times. In fact,
it appears to need Multiyear ice. This is well understood, as the older ice is denser,
and has a different radar reflection than new ice.
The huge area shown as ice north of Alaska ( http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/data/ice/ice.png), but missing from AMSR_E is mainly new ice. The Alaskan data is accurate, the AMSR-E is just way out.
Overlays to compare:
http://i410.photobucket.com/albums/pp183/kiwistonewall/layer.gif ”
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/nsidc_pulls_the_plug_on_arctic_sea_ice_graphs/
Also vividly demonstrating the unreliability and dangers of hyped up ice mapping–
Midsummer farce in the Arctic: Greenpeas flees ice ‘way thicker than anything we can break’
they actually believed an ice chart showing low amounts of ice-
— they were later rescued by an ice breaker and unfortunately
will again waste the coast guards’ time and efforts next
summer-
http://motls.blogspot.com/2009/08/yacht-fiona-hopelessly-trapped-in-ice.html
Steve S. (09:11:13) :
And all this time I thought seals were warm blooded mammals.
It’s his handlers who are to be blamed; the old-school Chicago politicians who pull the strings, that, and his own socialist/Marxist anti-capitalist bent, hate of the ‘west’ and at his core, guilt, imbued by Wright pastoral teachings …
.
.
Re Fat Bigot
Warren Meyer at Climate Skeptic has covered the cooling caused by aerosols issue in his layman’s guide but in essence: sulfate production peaked way after the cooling had stopped in the 70s; for the cooling to be caused by aerosols we should have seen more cooling in the northern hemispher than the south when in fact the north warmed faster than the south.
Climate Change Conference at the European Parliament, Nov 18th
For readers who can get to Brussels, Roger Helmer the conservative MEP has organised the above with speakers including Fred Singer, Tom Segalstad, Ross McKittrick and James Delingpole of the Spectator and Telegraph. If any one is interested, they can contact me at pmaynard@pmaynard.plus.com
Christopher Monckton gave a powerful lecture to the Insurance Institute of London last Thursday. If anyone wishes to see the slide deck or listen to the podcast, they can contact me at the above email address.
Last Thursday evening, Ian Plimer gave a talk for the Spectator events series. This was meant to be a debate with I think Monbiot but he demurred. Plimer was eloquent on the geological history. I’d say the audience was 75% sceptic and 25% warmist. The latter just did not want to hear.
Cheers
Paul
Record cold expected in Alaska:
http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=rss&article=8
“MAGADAN, November 11 (Itar-Tass) – A frosty weather with temperatures unusually low for this time of the year has descended on the Kolyma River area in the northwest of Siberia.
Wednesday, the average air temperatures in most parts of the Kolyma basin sank to minus 40 degrees Celsius, and the Kolyma hydrometeorology bureau the record of minus 46 degrees was set in the North Evenk district.
Frosts of minus 41 degrees have been registered in the Yagodnoye district, and weather surveyors in the town of Seymchan reported minus 44 degrees.
Forecasters say the temperature in the central parts of the Magadan region may go down further to minus 47 degrees in the next two days. ”
http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=14517867&PageNum=0
Before the weekend is over, we will be close to our normal annual snowfall here in Northern Colorado. The climate models predicted that Colorado would see later and lighter snowfall, and snow would only accumulate at higher elevations.
Science museum poll
4535 in
7281 out
They get the name/email of the “out” people to prove that there is a real person voting. I wonder why they don’t do the same for those voting “in”?
Reagards,
Steamboat Jack
The NASA GISS website is offline for at least 7-8 consecutive hours now. What could they do for so long? Let I guess they are working on a new adjustment method (or just dropping out some inconvenient rural sites for “better” results).
“Unusually early snow storms in north-central China have claimed 40 lives, caused thousands of buildings to collapse and destroyed almost 500,000 acres (200,000 hectares) of winter crops, the Civil Affairs Ministry said Friday.”
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/world/early-snow-storms-in-china-kill-40-damage-more-than-9000-buildings-659-million-in-damage-70091832.html
(from a post by Rational Debate (02:15:28) in tips and notes)
Ric Werme (21:17:48): …promised ills haven’t happened as promised and it’s too cold in a lot of areas.
It may not have been promised, but “too cold” is definitely an ill.
SandyInDerby (00:34:04): So what’s scarier? The most hysterical AGW projections, or the fact that mainstream science has been corrupted by postmodern politics? …Why? and particularly can you prove it?
The scariest thing is neoglaciation, i.e. the return to Ice Age stadial temperatures. No one can prove predictions until the future comes to pass, but strong evidence suggests that over the last 1.6 million years interglacials have been short-lived compared to glacial stadials, both of which have occurred at regular periodic intervals.
Lucy (02:44:41): …there’s no need for excessive paranoia.
Then why is excessive paranoia so rampant? Freakonomic theory holds that humans do not act without incentives. Hence we may conclude that excessive paranoia is generally and specifically incentivized, if not built into our DNA.
Stacey (03:07:51): It is astounding that there are people who want to pump material into the atmosphere… a gradual process which results eventually in ice ages.
That’s some useful paranoia, IMHO. Kudos, Stacey. Hope my compliments incentivize you.
Mark (06:14:33): …there is no doubt the Arctic has been a bit warmer than normal this fall.
Well, duh — “normal” over the last 1.6 million years is Ice Age polar icecap a kilometer thick. Really bad news for bears, whales, and other living things. Mark, your expression of paranoia is far too mild. Come the next glacial stadial, all manner of terrible things are going to happen (recur). You may wish to reexamine your paranoia level and seek the usual incentives to ramp it up.
Warmer is Better. Fight the Ice.
Al Gore’s latest book at no. 63 on Amazon. It was 70 earlier this morning.
Jeff Master’s blog at wunderground has been discussing the floods in Virginia. To show why storms are having more effect now than in the past, he produced a graph of the last 80 years of relative sea level rise at Sewell’s Point VA.
Now maybe I’m just getting old and my eyesight is not what it once was, but consarn it, that graph looks exactly like a straight line with noise. Where’s the hockey stick?
I can´t wait when Steve McIntyre starts to replicate the HadCRUT. Look at US temperature record, where the top of 1995-2005 warm part of the cycle is not different from 1930-1940 warm cycle. Of course USA makes just 7% of surface, but it is on the Northern hemisphere which experienced the most pronounced temperature variations and there is the densest net of meteostations in world.
The same is valid for Arctic – temperatures were similar in 40ties as in 2005.
Truly rural stations in Central Europe show present cycle warmer by 0,1-0,2 deg C than that from 40ties. There was not much warming in tropics and southern hemisphere use to behave contrary to North, plus there is almost only ocean. So where is the hockey pattern in surface HadCRUT/GISTEMP record coming from, except flawed stations? I suspect the merging algorithm (added value™) must do the job.
Another thing I realized, that relative warming of Arctic/Siberia looks so high, because Arctic temperature varies 4 times more than global temperature. Baseline 1960-1990 was pretty cold and present top of the warm peak looks much warmer than in other parts of the globe. However, had been the baseline 1920-1950, Arctic should have looked around average today.
France & Brazil unveil Climate Bible
Make up your own minds why they use this language.
“…We are making public … a French-Brazilian text because Brazil and France, we want Copenhagen to be a success, not a cut-price agreement,” Sarkozy told reporters in Paris.
“We are fighting for the world to live up to its historic responsibility,” the president added.
Lula hailed the text a “climate bible” and a “historic document”.”
Regards
Michael
Yes, it looks like a rather persistent and quite strong Southerly flow to the East of Iceland. It is going to be difficult for the ice to expand South in the face of that wind and the accompanied pushing of warmer water and air into the region.
“China and the U.S. are the two largest contributors of carbon emissions, accounting for over 40% of the world’s total CO2 emissions”
http://www.codaautomotive.com/index.html
This statement denies the existence of volcanoes, ocean and land-based outgassing and natural biomass depletion cycles. It is presented in all earnesty by the Chinese car company CODA. They rely on the “Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency” as the source – which writes reports for The Club of Rome:
http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2009/Growing-within-limits.-A-report-to-the-Global-Assembly-2009-of-the-Club-of-Rome.html
This is not just a truth-in-advertising issue – it’s about mad-dog alarmism making up statistics. Nothing science-based here. Just political hokem.
anna v (07:21:02) :
It would be good to have the wind pattern in the arctic.
Does this help?
Medium Range Forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere