Global warming skeptic tells group that cure is worse than problem.
By Lee Roop, special to The Huntsville Times
HUNTSVILLE, AL – Science doesn’t support current global warming alarms and, even if it did, current proposals to fix things won’t work and might make life worse.
That’s the well-known view of Dr. John Christy, a University of Alabama in Huntsville climate scientist, and Christy spelled out the “whys” and “why nots” of his perspective Tuesday to the Huntsville Rotary Club.
“Consensus is not science,” Christy began, quoting the late author Michael Crichton.
Christy, the state climatologist, is well-known in the global warming debate. He has testified before Congress many times and was an unpaid expert witness for the automobile industry in a federal lawsuit against fleet mileage requirements.
Here’s Christy’s basic argument:
* The data being used to predict catastrophic warming is suspect.
* Models generated from that data “overstate the warming” actually taking place. The earth is warming, but not that much, and it has warmed and cooled for eons.
* The Earth’s atmosphere is nowhere near as sensitive to carbon dioxide as some environmentalists believe.
* Any “solution” to perceived global warming must balance the growing worldwide demand for energy against cutting carbon dioxide output.
Fleet mileage requirements now proposed by the Environmental Protection Agency “would reduce global temperatures by about 1/100th of a degree,” Christy said.
You would need to replace 1,000 coal-fired power plants with 1,000 nuclear plants to change global climate even .15 of a degree, he said.
“This is the scale (of global climate) we are talking about,” Christy said.
* One cost of mandating harsh energy controls is the migration of industry to areas where requirements are less, Christy said.
In his talk, Christy also took aim at several other widely discussed pronouncements.
* Temperatures in the Arctic have increased over the last 100 years, he agreed, but that’s only because 100 years ago “was the coldest it’s been in a long time.”
* Arctic ice has melted, but ice has grown in Anartica. Between the two, there’s about as much ice as always.
* There are more polar bears now, not fewer. Canada issues 800 bear-hunting permits each year, he pointed out.
* Temperatures may be warmer in Greenland, but scientific experiments with ice fields show “that 4,000 years ago, it was warmer in Greenland than it is today.
“Greenland did not melt,” Christy said.
Why is the apocalyptic view of climate change so widespread?
“Funding comes if you have an alarming story,” Christy said.
He also cited “group think” and said scientists revel in the attention their views about climate brings.
“It’s almost a drug,” Christy said.
h/t to Climate Depot
E.M.Smith (23:00:32) :
Thanks for the update on thorium fuel. I was not aware that it had reached a demonstration stage. I will re-acquaint myself with current developments.
I realize that uranium is one of the most common elements on the planet and is contained with-in everything. Accessible deposits which are suitable for mining are a different matter. With a 10 yr lead time required to develop a producing mine and many mines required for such a buildup of reactors… I still, would have to say fuel supply will be the limiting factor.
Supply is running at about 135 million pounds per year, with mines contributing only 79.2 million pounds per year. In Canada and Australia, the big producers in uranium, few new mines have come on stream, largely as a result of recently poor prices.
To sustain the increases in energy demand dictated by a growing world economy, there is no question that uranium will need to play a key role. But… Where are the massive construction projects that are required, actually taking place, that makes it all possible? GK
Andrew Parker (08:32:00) :
lichanos (06:35:46) :
The best way to reduce our dependence on foreign oil through fuel consumption would be to increase domestic oil retrieval and build some refineries. Given that a new refinery hasn’t been built in the U.S. for decades, it would seem that their stated concern of our dependence is disingenuous.
Neven: The fact that this goes unmoderated might lead certain people to think that you share these views, Anthony. If only because this is one of many similar comments.
When referring to the proliferation in alarmist AGW reports, “peer reviewed” alarmist papers and the obfuscation by some researchers when asked to provide raw data, I think it is no longer an opinion but plainly factual to speak in the terms I did. Whether the alamists statements are directly based on fabricated evidence like the “Hockey Stick” or unsubstantiated climate models that heavily implicate CO2 …let’s call a spade a spade.
Every successful con artist works by couching lies within truths and half truths. The alarmist man-made climate catastrophe predictions are not so very different from a Bernard Madhoff Ponzi scheme – superficially convincing and involving large amounts of money for those who successfully propagate the scam. Although Madhoff came up with the Ponzi scheme, he used a network of brokers to propagate his scheme – all of whom profited heavily – that is the beauty of a a successful con – many people choose to believe in it because it is structured so that they gain from it – they have absolutely no insentive to question the fundamental basis for the scheme.
Although the “Hockey Stick” was artfully fabricated, those who use this to propagate the man-made alarmist agenda are culpable, IMHO. It is beholden on the people who make wild claims (with HUGE global economic consequences) to have done some due diligience. Lack of due diligence is criminal in many disciplines, such as engineering and medecine.
Call a spade is a spade.
re: Jeremy (20:53:20) :
Yes, Jeremy, you are absolutely right and there should be hell to pay for the damage these eco-fascists are doing and have done. These frauds do not deserve an easy out.
G. Karst (09:11:38) : “To sustain the increases in energy demand dictated by a growing world economy, there is no question that uranium will need to play a key role. But… Where are the massive construction projects that are required, actually taking place, that makes it all possible?”
China and India. 🙂
P Wilson (06:57:11) : “I get all my climate science by watching the Day After Tomorrow. . In that film, all was good during global warming. It turned catastrophic when it turned cold”
One of my favorite comedies. I loved the way already-frozen New York froze more when the stratosphere fell on it. Full marks for originality, too. I’ve seen actors chased by cars, airplanes, explosions, even dinosaurs, but that was the first time I’d ever seen anyone chased by an ice age!
As I recall, they even had the Gulf Stream backwards. 🙂
No doubt many here have already seen the South Park version:
http://www.xepisodes.com/southpark/episodes/908/Two-Days-Before-the-Day-After-Tomorrow.html
SLIGHTLY OT:
Cuba orders extreme measures to cut energy use
Source: Reuters
* Cuba’s energy situation termed “critical”
* Some factories, workshops to be closed through December
* Most other economic activities to be reduced
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N11371755.htm
——–
This is what central planning, socialism a command economy and not developing energy sources gets you.
I spent roughly 600 gallons of fuel to buy and ship my new sailboat so I could sail and use free wind. It takes about 300 gallons to drive to the yacht club and back for a season. It does use less than 20 gallons diesel in the auxillary motor a year. As the harbormaster, I spent under 100,000 dollars hauling in crushed concrete from an old roadway in the name of recycling. The breakwater jetty looks great. I spent that again on dredging and shoreline improvements and lining a cove with bags to create a bag wall. All the work requires heavy equipment and burns a lot of fuel to be able to claim we are green. We even built a log cabin clubhouse. It is natural. Of course we hauled the logs in in kit form over 1,200 miles. I have spent a lot of money and consumed an incredibly massive amount of petrol to show the region what being committed to green looks like. I searched at long distances to find a quarry to provide great native stone for the fire place. We also have contacts that bring in pecan for firewood because it has a better fragrance than local hedge, pine or inferior woods.
As you can see, it takes a lot of fuel to save energy. Some of us old timers still can use celestial navigation. We also keep logs and diaries and plot weather from way back. It does seem to show a pattern of our racing starts are being done in cooler temps and lighter winds than some earlier decades.
G Karst: There are 52 large nuclear power reactors being built around the world today. None in the US if you don’t count the one that was started more than 30 years ago. Details here:
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/reactors.html
Quantity of uranium is not a problem. The estimate of current reserves is a strong function of price, and uranium is cheap now. As the price for new uranium goes up, reprossessing becomes viable, which also reduces the amount of waste. Since the cost of electricity is a very weak function of fuel cost, that’s not an economic time bomb. Then, fast neutron breeder reactors, being developed in 4 countries, promise about 70-fold increase in fuel reserves. Details here:
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf98.html
And in the near term, the Koreans are working on burning spent fuel from light water reactors (most commercial reactors are light water) in their heavy water reactors. This greatly reduces the amount of wastes and generates more energy. Details here:
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf81.html
In summary, there is at least 1000 years of fission power available without needing new technology. I like the idea of plug-in hybrid cars running on clean, safe, reliable, low cost nuke power, and solar and wind power. Stop burning oil in cars by gradual phase-in of plug-in hybrids before all-electric cars are viable.
“Consensus is not science,” Christy began, quoting the late author Michael Crichton.
Yes, may he rest in peace. I sometimes recall scenes from his book, State of Fear, when I view some of these climate catastrophe speeches given by the president, which name increased terrible weather, disease and droughts as proof that government action must be taken. I think they were expecting all of this, but the sun did not cooperate.
*******
Dan (12:02:24) :
********
Not to mention the vast potential of thorium reactors:
http://thoriumenergy.blogspot.com/
It’s a good point about the drug effect of such groupthink. You often find that these “overwhelming-issues” people are fairly wooden or colourless.
AGW belief can be a kind of sexiness for the unsexy, stimulation of the frankly dull by the frankly dull.
“Consensus is not science,” Christy began, quoting the late author Michael Crichton. But the truth is so much stranger than fiction!
In Michael Crichton’s State of Fear some island states were actually suing the US for damages caused by AGW.
Instead, you have these yahoos in the Maldives waterboarding themselves or whatever so the US will sign a treaty forfeiting 1% of our GDP to the UN!
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/18/maldivians-pull-underwater-publicity-stunt/
@ur momisugly Barry Foster
I still cannot understand. Why lie?
My thinking is that it is much easier to “herd” your sheeple if they are on foot instead of driving their own vehicles around.
Once they get rid of most of us old Baby Boomers who still remember the days of V-8s and hot rod music, perhaps they can finish changing the culture so we are not so enamored with having our own set of wheels.
Is anyone writing hit rock music about their “sweet ride”, the Prius?
Most people have already seen this, but it might be worth mentioning again, there is a very good debate with Dr. Christy on youtube.
all eight parts are worth the time if you can spare it.
Dr. Christy is facts, figures, and observation. All the other guy has is hot air.
What or where is Anartica ?
Matt (15:17:08) :
What or where is Anartica ?
Jus southa Stailia’r mate, an fur fur southa ‘merka.. 😎
We got heaps of thorium laying around in Western Australia if you guys need some in the future. Heck we bury monazite all the time as part of the heavy mineral sands operations in the central west and south west. Got tonnes of it ready to go. Until recently it was against state government policy to mine uranium, but that lunacy was dropped when the Libs got control in the last election.
I am not sure that waxing lyrical about AGW types and drug-like addictions is helping this side of the debate… we don’t want to lower ourselves to the standard of Real Climate now do we?
beetroot chops – even after reading all the way down to the end of the illuminating comments I couldn’t refrain from remarking on the beetroot face
Rereke Wakaaro (00:01:44)
As a post script to your well defined analysis,
”Those who are to smart to go into politics are punished by being governed by idiots.
Plato.”
born 427 BC
died 347 BC
and in this time nothing has changed
“We’ve got to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.” Senator Timothy Wirth 1990
weather office on Tuesday sounded a cyclone alert for the coastal regions of south Gujarat and north Maharashtra, where it is expected to make a landfall in the early hours of Thursday.
Weather scientists are tracking a deep depression formed in the Southeast and adjoining Central Arabian Sea, which is moving in the northwest direction and to hit south Gujarat.
“The system is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move in a northerly direction for some more time and then north-northeastwards and cross south Gujarat and north Maharashtra coast between Mahuva and Dahanu by early hours of November 12,” an alert issued by the India Meteorological Department said.
Why such storms? climate change?global warming?
Rayat Ngo
http://www.rayatngo.blogspot.com
“Why such storms? ”
You’re having storms in India?
Quick, how much money you need! Will Aussie dollars be okay?
People have short memories Robert, that’s how they’ve got away with it for so long.
DaveE.
Sorry for sarcasm, Rayat Ngo. (If you’re an actual person and not a robot.)
I’m trying to improve my internet manners, but often failing.
I’m so glad that the cyclone missed Mumbai. If it’s any help, you had a November cyclone in 1912, 1947, 1948, 1966…and you had three of them in November of 1946.
I hope it’s good new to you that, for the above very simple and obvious reasons, anthropogenic global warming is unlikely to be involved. This is the point I should have made without sarcasm.