Guest post by Willis Eschenbach
The upcoming Copenhagen climate summit, officially and ponderously named “COP15 United Nations Climate Change Conference Copenhagen 2009”, is aimed at reducing the emissions of the developed world. The main players, of course, are the US and Western Europe. There is a widespread perception that if the US and Western Europe could only get our CO2 emissions under control, the problem would be solved. Nothing could be further from the truth.
To see the gaping hole in this idea, it is only necessary to look at the historical record of carbon emissions. Here is that graph:

While in 1970 the US and Western Europe combined to contribute about half of all CO2 emissions, at present this is far from true. In the past 35 years, the combined emissions of the US and Western Europe have risen only slightly. Globally, however, CO2 emissions have risen steeply, with no end in sight.
So it doesn’t matter if Europe signs on to a new Kyoto. It doesn’t matter if the US adopts Cap and Trade. Both of them together will make no significant difference. Even if both areas could roll their CO2 emissions back to 1970 levels, it would not affect the situation in the slightest.
These are meaningless attempts to hold back a rising tide of emissions. Me, I don’t think rising CO2 levels are a problem. But if you think it will be a problem, then you should definitely concentrate on adaptation strategies .. because mitigation simply isn’t going to work.
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Skeptic Tank (19:32:47), you ask a good question:
Emissions are usually measured in tonnes (metric) of carbon. Since carbon has a molecular weight of 12 and oxygen is 16, CO2 has a molecular weight of 12 + 16 + 16, or 44.
So to convert tonnes of carbon into tonnes of CO2, multiply by 44/12, and by 12/44 if you convert the other way. So when Lord Monckton is quoted above as saying
we multiply this by 12/44 to get between 8 and 9 gigatonnes of carbon emitted, as shown in my graph.
Thanks,
w.
The KRudd govt here in Oz is a joke. When you have a PM wedded to climate scientology lashing out at the purveyors of truth, then you know you’ve won.
COP 15 discussion at youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/user/Cop15
Here in the U.S. the majority party of the elected government and the President are still believers. They and their appointees will attempt to enforce climate change based control over the people. They will not stop until they are no longer in office.
Jimmy Hansen (21:31:43) :
i agree with you.
we have angela merkel here in germany who is exactly on the same track, but she may be excused by having a couple fanatic pseudo scientists as advisors, and has never practized such rude way of demonizing opponents. That is just a catastrophy for the British culture, that has been so successful through discussion, balancing reasons and sticking to facts.
Hey Manfred, You think Angela can be excused because she has a couple of fanatic pseudo scientists advising her, what about Obama’s advisors, Hansen, Gore, Chu, Jackson; they’re not exactly the sharpest crayons in the box.
Just saw Barbara Boxer forced the cap and trade bill out of committee (AGWers putting lots of spin on that) but that the bill is dead anyway.
Will check Mon for more info, will be off the grid til Monday.
Cheers!
I completely agree with this concise argument by Willis.
i haven’t heard anything similar from obama yet disuniting his country .
rudd (like brown or gore) appears to be motivated by base motives in running his country and staying at power.
Why Copenhagen SHOULD not achieve anything:
Article by David Warren:
“Energy reality is that the sun’s work over the ages has produced energy sources (oil, gas, and coal) that far exceed the dilute energy from the sun.
The stock beats the flow–by a country mile”.
Will technology solve our energy problems? This seemingly fatuous question is actually stupider than first appears. For we already have the technology to power anything within reason, with minimal if any environmental fallout.
Yet under the inspiration of the Green Zeitgeist, I cannot go into a magazine shop without finding some science-lite cover story on new prospects for harnessing solar, thermal, wind, tidal, or whatever “renewable” forces. There is an immense credulous audience out there, willing to be entertained by such nonsense.
No one with a grasp of high school physics should take any of these schemes seriously. In each case, we are looking at a crank idea from the hippie era, which has not since been significantly improved, because it can’t be.
All are basically bureaucratic arrangements: the idea being to live by taxing wealth produced elsewhere, in this case the kinetic energy in wind and water, or the radiant light and heat from the sun. Hydro was the original big government idea: to install the equivalent of a massive toll booth right across a river, flood everything behind it and starve everything in front. Conservationists going back a century were right to apprehend that the “renewable” paradigm is crazy.
To my mind, as well, the great Hoover dam, built on a scale to choke the Colorado River, was a monument to hubris. On Saturday I mentioned the Aswan dam, that choked the mighty Nile. The Three Gorges in China, the string of hydro dams straddling the geological faults along the Indian face of the Himalayas — unspeakably destructive to the productivity of the lands both before and behind them — are catastrophes patiently waiting for their earthquakes.
And likewise, the scale of desecration that is required for a landscape to supply the kind of power a large hydro dam provides, by alternative “taxation” schemes. Hundreds upon hundreds of gigantic propeller windmills, at each of many dispersed locations. Or, countless miles of coastline impounded to exploit the tides. Or, millions of acres of monotonous solar panels, that work only when the sun is shining.
Moreover, we can know that the environmentalists who demand these things will turn on them as soon as they are built. They are, as all utopians, not people who can be satisfied, and it makes sense to frustrate their ambitions decisively — before, rather than after, their tyranny has been consolidated.
Those who grasp basic physics will know that there will be no serious improvements in the efficiency of any of these “renewable resources.” The sun may be a superbly powerful ball of energy, but its radiation diminishes as the square of distance, and by the time it reaches earth is not intense. Wind is diffuse; water runs slowly.
A candid look at nature reveals that creatures live by finding and burning fuels, as food. We should trust nature to have found the inevitable solutions. Hence, by analogy, fossil fuels. They may not hold out perpetually, but the known reserves continue to grow faster than we can burn them. The engines we’ve designed are vastly less efficient than the engines of nature; but vastly more efficient and practicable than anything that “renews.”
And what do we mean by “renewable” anyway, in a universe as abundant as this one? Nature burns fuels far more efficiently, and could do so more efficiently still, were she not calibrated instead to produce so many useful by-products, that get used without exception.
One-billionth of the potential power in a litre of gasoline is released by the way we burn it, and the same can be said for coal and wood. This is a very poor show!
Some idea of what is possible when we employ more brains comes from comparing nuclear power, where the energy released in splitting a uranium atom is several million times greater than that from merely breaking the carbon-hydrogen bond.
As the journalist William Tucker and many others have repeatedly explained, instead of hundred-car trainloads arriving daily to feed the flames of a large coal-fired generator, we have a single truckload of fuel rods arriving about every third month. And while the waste product may frighten the incurably neurotic, it is small and easily contained. In nuclear reactors, the energy required to power a city the size of Ottawa, for a year, comes from the transformation of less than one ounce of matter.
Not that I would wish to put coal-miners out of their jobs. For as Baudelaire said of Ingres and Delacroix, “Let us love them both.” I love a coal fire, and there are all kinds of wonderful by-products of coal production.
Nor have I the slightest objection to sheeting the sails of my imagined yacht to the pleasure of Aeolus, but the idea of powering cities with rank after rank of these malicious bird-killing propellers is too droolingly idiotic. Let us tilt against them with the power of a million Don Quixotes!
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/technology/Energy+spare/2181539/story.html
Why Copenhagen 2009 is the “last chance” to save the world!
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=4317
Remarks from Czech President Vaclav Claus on Cap & Trade:
http://minnesotansforglobalwarming.com/m4gw/2009/11/remarks-by-czech-president-vaclav-klaus-on-cap-and-trade.html
Rifts appear ahead of G20 Meeting
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8347786.stm
tricky stuff modifying weather !!
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2009/11/05/2003457662
Chinese scientists in hot water over icy weather
AFP , BEIJING
Thursday, Nov 05, 2009, Page 5
Two people make a snowman at Beijing’s Temple of Heaven Park on Sunday. Not everyone was amused by the snowfall.
PHOTO: REUTERS
China’s Weather Modification Office has been pilloried for inducing a recent heavy snow fall that jammed traffic, delayed air travel and left city residents shivering, state media said yesterday.
Sunday’s snowfall dropped more than 16 million tonnes of snow on the Chinese capital, blanketing a city where winter heating services have yet to be switched on and leading to howls of public protest, the China Daily reported.
Leaders ‘likely’ to go to summit
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8347547.stm
Luboš Motl (23:23:14), you say:
Luboš, many thanks, that means a lot. For those who don’t know of him, Luboš is a Czech physicist with a very interesting blog that covers a variety of climate and other issues.
w
It’ll certainly keep a few thousand delegates supremely well fed for a week or so, a tremendous achievement.
Its a shame this graph didn’t make headlines 10 years ago.
Manfred (23:25:34) :
I think you miss the point that Rudd is setting himself up for the next step up to the world stage… Australia is not big enough. I swear Murdoch has been reading the blogs because he came out and said the same thing today (which I have been saying for the last month – though I see no accreditation from the ole boy):
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/6444396/rudd-too-sensitive-says-media-magnate/
Murdoch said (about Rudd):
“He’s different in that he’s more ambitious to lead the world than to lead Australia,” he told Sky News, but quickly added that the comment may be a “little unfair” though “there’s some truth in it”.
No I don’t think it is unfair, but I guess this is Murdoch’s way of firing a shot and taking a bet each way by mollifying it somewhat. Ban Ki Moon already said a couple of times that Rudd had an important role to play…
BTW for a powerful graphical tool which includes global CO2 emissions and many other stats have a play with:
http://www.gapminder.org/
There are some great videos on applications of Gapminder as well – for instance at TED:
http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_reveals_new_insights_on_poverty.html
Now that’s stats made sexy!
I think someone with the time and insight could give some great presentations on the CO2 emissions stats and economic development and provide insights in this debate.
The chart is very interesting, but it shows only man-made CO2, which is but around 3% of the total. If one plots all CO2 the changes don’t even get off the X-axis.
I’m having trouble verifying the graph. the web link doesn’t show the graph http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/overview_2006.html,
and the following link doesn’t match the blue line
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/usa.html
Anyone help me out?
Can we honestly and factually claim that the “emissions” quoted in the title are FROM man-released energy production (which includes cement plants, transportation, power production, coke and steel, heating, etc, etc….)
Or are there ecotheist-added “fudge factors” such as
“trees we claimed are cut down” and
“CO2 increases we don’t the source of but they must be man-caused releases” and
“we have cut down all the forests everywhere so the lack of trees anywhere” is a man-caused emissions increase?
Aussie PM KRudd is unfortunately acting like a small politician with a big ego who is getting frustrated that the general public are starting to wake up to his real motive – glory, power and $$$.
The scandal here is the fact that a US with a population of 300 million is using about twice as much Co2 as Europe with a population of 500 million (and that’s just the European Union countries).
I am an AGW sceptic so I am not too bothered about the growth in Co2.
However I do hate waste and I am appalled at the MASSIVE energy inefficiencies of the US. And don’t blame it on quality of life. I live in France and the quality of life is higher than in the US due to the excellent health service and the lower disparity in incomes and I know this first hand because I lived and worked in Colorado for a time.
It would be good if you yanks did something about cutting your energy use. It’s a national disgrace.
We all know copenhagen is a politics fest. .A good way to justify tax increases and look like they’re doing something.