Circling Yamal 3 – facing the thermometers
Guest post by Lucy Skywalker
Let’s look closely and compare local thermometer records (GISS) with the Twelve Trees, upon whose treerings depend all the IPCC claims of “unprecedented recent temperature rise”.
For my earlier Yamal work, see here and here. For the original Hockey Stick story, see here and here.
Half the Hockey Stick graphs depend on bristlecone pine temperature proxies, whose worthlessness has already been exposed. They were kept because the other HS graphs, which depend on Briffa’s Yamal larch treering series, could not be disproved. We now find that Briffa calibrated centuries of temperature records on the strength of 12 trees and one rogue outlier in particular. Such a small sample is scandalous; the non-release of this information for 9 years is scandalous; the use of this undisclosed data as crucial evidence for several more official HS graphs is scandalous. And not properly comparing treering evidence with local thermometers is the mother of all scandals.
I checked out the NASA GISS page for all thermometer records in the vicinity of Yamal and the Polar Urals, in “raw”, “combined”, and “homogenized” varieties. Here are their locations (white). The Siberian larch treering samples in question come from Yamal and Taimyr. Salehard and Dudinka have populations of around 20,000; Pecora around 50,000; Surgut around 100,000; all the rest are officially “rural” sites. Some are long records, some are short.
Russia has two problems. First, many records stopped or became interrupted around 1990 after the ending of Soviet Russia; worst affected are the very telling Arctic Ocean records. Second, during Soviet Russia (and possibly now for all I know), winter urban records were “adjusted” downwards so that the towns could claim more heating allowances. Nevertheless, it will become clear that these issues in no way impede the evidence regarding treerings.
Click to enlarge these graphs. The first shows the 20 GISS stations closest to Yamal and the Polar Urals. The second shows treering width changes over time (only 10 of the 12 trees here). This was supposedly compared with local thermometer records, and used to calibrate earlier treering widths as temperature measurements to create a 1000-year temperature record. It was a pig to turn these graphs into a stack of transparent lines at the same scale as the GISS records for comparison, but finally, interesting material started to emerge.
I scaled all the GISS thermometer records to the same temperature scale, and ran them all from 1880 to 2020 at the same time scale (GISS graphs do not do this). I overlaid them as transparent lines along their approximate mean temperatures for comparison. Mean temperatures (visually judged) vary from around -2ºC (Pecora) to -13ºC (Selagoncy, Olenek, Hatanga, and Ostrov Uedine) and even -15ºC (“Gmo Im E.K. F”). The calibrations are degrees Centigrade anomaly, and decades.
Ha! Straightway we see clear patterns emerging. Let’s agree them:
Thermometer records: (1) time-wise, thermometers show temperatures rising from 1880 to 1940 or so; (2) temperatures fall a little from 1940 to 1970; (3) temperatures then rise a little but do not quite regain the heights of the 1940’s; (4) despite mean temperatures ranging from -2ºC to -15ºC (total means range 13ºC), and a range of temperature anomalies from each mean of only 9ºC from warmest year to coldest year, when mean temperatures are aligned, clear correlations emerge; (5) there are high variations between adjacent years. We shall investigate all this more closely in a minute.
Treering records: I’ve shown here the full records given for the 10 trees that runs from 1800 to 2000; but below, I use the same timescale as the thermometer records (1880-2020) for comparison. It is useful to see a few things here already: (6) treering sizes are increasing from 1830; (7) before that they show a decrease; (8) they do show correlation from 1880 on (this is NOT proof that the correlation is due to temperature).
Yamal area: (9) The 7 stations around Salehard seem to go in lock step with each other pretty well. (10) The five Yamal treering records (YAD) also correlate with each other, showing spikes around 1910, 1925, 1940, 1955, 1965, and 1980-1990. (11) But the treerings fall out with each other 1990-2000; and (12) these treering spikes do NOT correspond to the thermometer temperature spikes; but (13) there is a slight correlation with the longterm temperature; however, (14) crucially, there is no hockeystick blade in the thermometer record (15) nor is there one in the treering record if we remove the red YAD061 which is clearly an outlier – only a plateau’d elevation of the peaks throughout the 20th century starting before the real CO2/temp rise (and this is actually matched by pre-1800 values at times).
Excuse me for wondering if treerings beat to a different drum than temperature – it is certainly curious that there appears to be something causing correlations in the treerings. Wind? Sunspots? The moon? But let’s check by zooming in a little closer…
Salehard close-up: (16) all the nearby thermometer records mirror Salehard closely, although stations are up to 500 miles apart, the range of mean temperatures is -2ºC to -9ºC, and the range of annual temperatures at each station is up to about 9ºC – altogether a remarkable consistency. Click to see animated version of these records. (17) The close fit of Mys Kamennij (pale sea-blue) is particularly significant, since it is maritime and rural, and the same distance as Salehard from the treering site (some 120 miles), but in the opposite direction; (18) Ostrov Waigatz (Vaigach Island) shows the same pattern but with greater extremes; (19) in comparison with all this, the treering records show virtually no correlation at all – yet since treering differences between summer and winter exist at all, one would expect to see some correlation with warmer and colder years. (20) Perhaps if a far larger sample were used, a correlation might be detected, but clearly (21) we have trees here that are far too individual – especially YAD061.
Polar Urals: Here are seven station records around the Polar Urals site, compared with the five Taimyr (POR) treering records. (22) Mean temperatures are lower here – further North but also more continental, so perhaps the summers are as warm as Yamal, with similar near-treeline environment. (23) more noise in the temperature record, but the overall pattern is still the same; (24) 1943, 1967, 1983 are warm in common with the Salehard records, and 1940 is cold; other years are harder to compare. (25) The early fragmentary records for Dudinka and Turuhansk still fit together and overlay the Salehard records well, showing clear temperature rise between 1880 and 1940. (26) The treering records are fairly coherent, more so than the Yamal ones, and (27) they fit the Yamal records’ spikes in 1910, 1925, 1940, 1955, 1965, and 1980 on, but (28) again, this does not fit the temperature record.
The best of both record series: Really rural thermometer records from the maritime Arctic: (29) show the strongest pattern yet which (30) fits the other two sets of thermometer records but (31) does not fit the treering records even though (32) the treerings show coherent patterns within themselves, despite the two sites being some 800 miles apart.
Briffa’s full chronology: The Yamal chronology Briffa used (black) is compared with Polar Urals (green) and shows recent temperatures exceeding the Medieval Warm Period but (33) this is highly questionable, as is the recent final uptick. No MWP supports the alarmist “Unprecedented!” yet Polar Urals generally have been shown to fit local thermometer records better than Yamal for the period of overlap.
More GISS Arctic graphs: There are many serious problems with GISS but we can only take the evidence here. (34) GISS 64ºN+ shows a misleading trend line – temperatures rise to 1940, fall to 1970, rise to 2000 but not higher than 1940, then level off after 2000; (35) I don’t know what stations went into this composite – the final uptick alerts my suspicions to some UHI or other station problems; (36) Tamino takes the biscuit for cherrypicked trends in the GISS 80ºN+ North Polar winter record (sea green) – it clearly opposes the general worldwide fall in temperatures 1940-1970. However, it’s interesting to see such extremes.
GISS’ homogeneity adjustments: Thankfully, only a few of these Russian records are “adjusted”. But the alterations are telling. Surgut spikes upwards over Salehard from about 1960 on – but (36) the adjustment (probably UHI) is perversely done by truncating and moving earlier records upwards, instead of adjusting later records downwards. And (37) why were Salehard’s and Ostrov Uedine’s earlier “raw” records omitted in the adjusted records? I think every correction here will tend to amplify global warming trends.
GISS world temperatures, 2008: This map was shown in Tingley & Huybers’ latest Hockey Stick presentation at PAGES conference. GISS’ own station records around Yamal and Polar Urals appear to show (38) this map is misleading, since according to GISS’ own records, above, averages local to Yamal / Polar Urals after 2000 are at the most 1.5ºC anomaly (above local mean).
CRU Arctic temperatures, seasonal anomalies: (graph by romanm) Since this is from uncheckable individual station records, (39) the figures could be contaminated by various “correction” factors, (41) UHI is especially likely in the winter. But note that (42) the difference in character between months, and between summers and winters, is striking – summers have hardly changed – and (43) still no definitive Hockey Stick as per illustrations and per Briffa’s Yamal treering record, nothing beyond the range of natural patterns clearly evidenced here. Even the known slight overall increase during the twentieth century takes place mainly earlier in the century.
Conclusions: There is no sign whasoever of a Hockey Stick shape with serious uptick in the twentieth century, in the thermometer records. Yet these records are clearly very consistent with each other, no matter how long the record or how cold, high, or maritime the locality, with a distance span of over a thousand miles. Neither does the Hockey Stick consistently show in the treerings except in the case of a single tree. Even with thermometer records that are incomplete and suffering other problems, the “robust” conclusion is –
“Warmist” treering proxy temperature evidence is falsified directly by local thermometer records.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Steve M. (05:13:39) :
Sorry, but longer does not mean warmer. You can have long cool summers, short hot summers, etc. tree rings are not thermometers. If they were there would be a clear connection between degrees C and ring width, This analysis shows rings do what they do completely independent of temp.
As do many living things. Do these ‘scientists’ think birds migrate or trees shed their leaves and bulbs sprout on temperature? LOL!
Most living things respond to hours of daylight, not temperature (which of course is also tied to hours of daylight).
Bill:
I generally agree with the sentiment to minimize use of words like “scandalous”, but in this case, the word is properly used.
As to the Briffa statement: “We would like to reiterate that these data were never “owned” by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and we have never had the right to distribute them.”
Horsehockey. Nearly all peer-reviewed journals require data archiving. Science demands it. Speaking now as a lawyer, rather than as a scientist, once “secret” data is give out to one person who uses it for publication in the public domain, it cannot be held back from anyone, unless the data themselves were licensed for use or other wise restricted. It that was the case, then the publication should not have accepted the paper in the first place (for the obvious scientific reasons).
Like so many others, including Lucy, I find it is offensive to fail to share data. The problems we face are too large to let egos and the potential to come in second stand in the way of insight and wisdom.
David.
Christian S (01:58:15) :
By the way, the town called ‘Hatanga’ is actually ‘Khatanga’ and is a stop-over/re-fueling airport for Russian Arctic flights – I spent an hour there once.
Back in the 90’s I spent some time in Russia and like Lucy’s transliteration. Her transliteration is better than the other one which replaces the Cyrillic “X” with “Kh”. The actual sound is a gutteral “H”, while most English speaker pronounce it as a “K”. By using an “H” us English speakers are forced to pronounce it closer to its original Russian sound.
Polar Urals: “1940 is cold;” (?)
Am I misreading, or did you mean warm?
That gives credence to the hypothesis that the immediate local environment of YAD061 changed around 1930s that made the tree grow more than the others… I thought global warming was a global phenomenon and certainly not so local that it would only affect ONE tree.
As I recall Mann’s hockey stick was produced using an algorithm that would create a hockey stick shape even with random numbers. Briffa’s hockey stick supporting data is based on very poor scientific method, to say the least, and is falsified by the thermometer record.
Then there is Al Gore’s graphs which show a correlation between temperature and CO2 over the last half million years. But when examined closely the record shows the temperature changes precede the CO2 changes which proves the CO2 did not initiate the temperature changes.
And then there are the computer models. But those are falsified by at least two real measurements: 1) The models predict more warming in the troposphere at about 10k elevation in the tropics. But satellite and weather balloon data show no such warming. 2) The models all require positive feedbacks to attain the temperature rises the IPCC predicts. But the Evidence Lindzen presented at WUWT shows a negative feedback based on satellite data.
So what is left of the AGW theory?
Sonicfrog 08:47:54:
“Lucy, nicely done. Even I understood it and I am an idoit!”
Hear, hear! And I’m an idoit too!.
Is it possible that the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and not temperature played a large part in the recent increase in tree growth? I have heard that many cereal crop’s growth rate has been researched at different CO2 levels, but has anyone looked at how pines grow?
So how can a little boy with no tailoring credentials falsify the statements made to the king by professional tailors? “Sire, why are you naked?”
Mike Reese (09:33:48) :
It is most likely the case. That said, trees in the far North are usually very slow to grow since it is, for much of the year, cold. The effect of global warming and rise of CO2 should be felt by all tree. The data show that only YAD061 had a significant growth compared to ALL other trees in that area. So, again, global warming and rise of CO2 was not the cause for YAD061 to grow so fast. As we discussed in a previous post, the most likely reason for this sharp growth was a change in the local environment of that tree (i.e. more water and/or more food at the roots).
bill (08:44:22) :
The link you give : has it been corrected for UHI? Those are towns after all, has anybody checked where the thermometers are?
http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/climate/rms/intro.html
“The Radcliffe Meteorological Station is situated in Woodstock Road in the garden of Green College beside the old observatory building, adjacent to the Radcliffe Infirmary. It possesses the longest series of temperature and rainfall records for one site in Britain. These records are continuous from January, 1815. Irregular observations of rainfall, cloud and temperature exist from 1767. ”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:4516-Oxford-map-1510×1384.jpg
Not such a rural area after all, so there must be a UHI.
and the one in Dijon seems to be at the airport, another heat source increasing with time.
Bill
I appreciate your doubts. Now please try to be careful not to put words into my mouth.
I didn’t know what I would find on examining all the Russian GISS records. Plus, I know there are UHI problems, and I suspect more, with GISS, so I would not have been surprised to find a certain amount of UHI visible, making disentangling harder. Even so, there was no serious uptick. Not of the order of magnitude to which the tiny sample of trees were calibrated.
Sure, a lot of UK records show upticks. But all those I’ve seen could easily be UHI whereas lots of rural records show no uptick whatsoever, I’ve seen no rural record with a serious uptick beyond natural possibilities, and I’ve looked at quite a lot. And on these grounds, I suspect your refs of being atypical, I won’t say cherry-picked as you have given these to me in good faith. I would want to investigate a proper sample. Always.
Hey, I wish I could share my faith / attitude with you. It’s come out of being in some difficult places and being positive as well as realistic, non-judgemental, and just paying attention. My concern with AGW has shown me that real Science can be a wonderful therapy that can go very deep if needed.
We may be getting very close to the nub of the matter here. I’m not a scientist, but I can understand perfectly well what is presented here. It is clear that something quite fundamental is happening with scientific method and the procedures and provenances of the scientific community and how it relates to the political domain. It is disturbing for outsiders to see such apparently closed minds in operation. Maybe this has always been the case, but it is much more out in the open.
There are big new dimensions going on here. The science has been politicised to an unprecedented degree. This website deserves the highest praise for dealing with the science and the evidence in an empirical and honest way and avoiding as much as possible the ‘ad hominem’ invective and the appeals to authority.
WUWT has allowed me, and no doubt many others, to get an understanding of the evidence and the issues in a way that the AGW lobbyist never do. They seem to prefer alarming headlines and obscure data and computer models. I pride myself on having an open mind, and that means not accepting theories without a critical look at the evidence, which looks increasingly dubious. Lucy adds one more valauble piece to the jigsaw of the evidence.
Whether it is GHGs, Solar cycles, Sea levels, global temperatures, polar ice, etc the picture does not appear straightforward and ‘settled’. The politicians and parts of the scientific community seem to have called time on the science prematurely. Now huge sums of our money are riding on this phantom. ‘The Science is settled’ and there is a ‘consensus’ are still bandied about, but may come back to haunt them.
The BIG question is what are the real scientists and sceptics going to do about all this. How does the sceptical view get a hearing where it is needed? Otherwsie are we just talking to ourselves? In the UK, at last, some prominent sceptical voices are beginning to be heard – Clive James on the BBC and Rod Liddle (Spectator) and of course Chrispopher Booker (Telegraph). None has special knowledge about Climate Science, but a gut feeling that something is wrong when the sceptical intellect is denigrated by the term ‘denier’… and the evidence has been treated in such a cavalier manner.
Bill
You posted a graph of grape harvest to bolster your defense of Briffa> Need you be reminded that Gavin has declared the use of grape harvest data is a no-no:
Are vineyards a good temperature proxy? While climate clearly does impact viticulture through the the amount of sunshine, rainfall amounts, the number of frost free days in the spring and fall, etc., there a number of confounding factors that make it less than ideal as a long term proxy. These range from changing agricultural practices, changing grape varieties, changing social factors and the wider trade environment.
There are some things that Gavin and I can agree on.
Lucy Skywalker (09:56:29) :
Have a look at Ross on Wye, yeovil, Tiree, Lerwick – The last 2 are small island communities. The others are small towns. All show increasing temperature.
data here:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/stationdata/
But of course it will be said here that the data has been fixed by the met office to agree with their agenda!
Bill: No warming buddy, it’s over!
Hmmm, I didn’t realize the English Isles were in such close proximity to Yamal. Got to get my “New Geography” Globe updated.
Bill, you’re getting sidetracked. Stick with the Yamal region.
“”” Kaboom (01:12:12) :
“I scaled all the GISS thermometer records to the same temperature scale, and ran them all from 1880 to 2020 at the same time scale (GISS graphs do not do this). ”
Anthony, how exactly did you extract the 2020 data? By force? “””
No Kaboom, the 2020 data was just hindsight; sorry about that !
George
Well Lucy you have been busy.
Lots of nice data there to digest. Too bad you can’t wangle your way to a free trip into the region; well wait 8 months or so before you go.
Maybe AlGore would cut you a grant from his megabucks.
George
Bill, I was interested that you mentioned Yeovil’s temperature record as an example, since I live nearby.
Yeovil is certainly no longer a “small” town, but that’s irrelevant, as a click on the Met Office link you provided shows the readings to be from Yeovilton, a Royal Naval Air Service air base 4 miles from Yeovil and unconnected with the town.
Denis Hopkins (06:38:13) :
re: cold fusion ” their data and experimnents were not repeatable”
Sorry to go OT, but if you check http://www.LENR-CANR.org you will find that not only were they repeatable, substantial progress has been made in determining the actual physics behind the observed events. I sympathize with the frustration of having science buried by “Expert Opinion”. LENR has been going through the same kind of event.
Do you really believe they can’t measure a few things at one site and use that to calculate the entire world’s part, present and future climate? Come on! They got computers now!
George E Smith
I’d love to go there, if I have a chance to converse with shamans.
Bill
Be a darling and turn those data into graphs for us. I’m afraid I can only photoshop material and I don’t currently have time on my side to learn excel or R. I know it’s not Yamal, but actually I am interested. For instance, the GISS Ross-on-Wye record only runs from 1880-1975. I really didn’t believe it stopped there.
Paul N
I’m not outside reach of Yeovil. Yes, weather station at airbase. UK Met Office used to be under RAF, or something like that, in the innocent old days.
Everyone
Thanks for so many kind words of encouragement. Kinda surprised me, but I did feel proud of this page. There’s another one coming in about a fortnight I hope on the UK, then I need to take a break to move house and other things.
AJStrata (08:53:15) :”Most living things respond to hours of daylight, not temperature (which of course is also tied to hours of daylight).”
Hmm. Good point, one to remember.
Very good, Lucy S.