Big differences seen compared to EIA estimate.
Documents (link to PDF) obtained from the U.S. Treasury under the Freedom of Information Act by the free-market Competitive Enterprise Institute were released on Tuesday.
The U.S. Treasury Department admits that a “cap and trade” system for regulating greenhouse gas emissions could cost every household $1,761 a year. According to the CBS News story, “the equivalent of hiking personal income taxes by about 15 percent”.
This comes in way over claims that the EIA says:
The Climate Bill Will Cost You Just 23¢ a Day, EIA Analysis Shows. This works out to $83.95 per year. Big difference.
CEI Director of Energy and Global Warming Policy Myron Ebell on the accumulating evidence on the costs of cap and trade:
“The bill’s proponents talk about protecting consumers while intermittently acknowledging that cap-and-trade can only reduce greenhouse gas emissions by dramatically raising the price of energy derived from coal, oil and natural gas.
President Obama said during the campaign last year that ‘under my plan of a cap-and-trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket.’ Dr. Peter Orszag, now head of the White House Office and Management and Budget, testified last year when he was head of the Congressional Budget Office that ‘price increases would be essential to the success of a cap-and-trade program.’”
Harold Blue Tooth (14:44:32) : A recent poll showed that 46% of people think that you could put your finger randomly in a phone book and come up with 535 people that could do a better job than the ones in the House and Senate now.
Oddly enough, the ancient Greeks had a system like that. 500 random folks were rounded up to run the place and set the agenda for making the laws.. Worked pretty well, too.
http://www.themonkeycage.org/2009/07/athenian_democracy.html
Jeff Green (17:10:13) :
….
The plans are there and it will work. Denmark is at 20% now. Spain and Portugal are both very aggressive in bringing more wind and solar on now.
You’re dreaming.
Denmark is selling it’s own prosperity to it’s neighbours in return for reliable Hydro, Nuclear and Coal Power. REF1: http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2009/09/14/something-rotten-obama-says-danes-receive-20-of-their-power-via-wind-new-study-tells-the-real-story/
Spain killed 2.2 real jobs for every 1 (lower paying, and transient) green job that it created, it now has severe unemployment. REF2: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2PHwqAs7BS0
Current Spanish unemployment is above 17%.
It’s cheap energy that underpins prosperity, (+ Intellectual Capital, Property Rights, Individual Liberty and the Rule of Law… ).
Windmills slaughter birds. REF3: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203706604574376543308399048.html
DDT was (wrongfully) banned for less – where are all the environmentalists screaming for windmills to be banned to save the birds, bats, and other wildlife from being slaughtered by these useless money sucking machines.
Jeff Green (17:28:35) : James Hansen predicted that with a simpler computer model than they have today back in 1988.
When you talk like this Jeff you show everyone that you chose to ignore what is happening in the real world.
James Hansen’s predictions from 1988 are wrong.
Also, have you checked what is happening with Arctic ice?
Sit down first before opening the link :
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
Jeff Green-
While you obviously hold your ideas firmly, you are showing manifold signs of extreme naivete. Just out of curiosity, do you have any post-secondary education in any of the sciences?
IanM
Has anyone done an in-depth anaylsis of how we got to this stage? From climate change policy (I believe) as far back as Maggie Thatcher’s era and perhaps before? About the indoctrination of the youth with “Inconvenient Truth” videos and the like in more recent years?
I think it would make a fascinating documentary to track the “science”. It takes a lot of cumulative mis-education to get to this stage. It must have been a generational concerted effort. Or was it something that got triggered by a confluence of more recent events? I imagine the former… these things, like claims in some shampoo ads, don’t happen overnight.
As for my neck of the woods (Australia) where they are trying to push through an ETS, I am sure these US Treasury estimates may make good ammunition for the opposition, if they have the huevos to run with it. Problem is that the leader of the conservative party (Liberal compared to US politics) is also soft on climate change.
“crosspatch (12:54:03) :
My question is, to what extent will the general population of Ethiopia be participating in the carbon trading market?”
Their gummint has already made food more expensive, as well as everything else, has banned the use of charcoal (That’s like banning teff FFS), so yeah, they are participating.
And we will soon find out that the real costs are even higher than Treasury bureaucrats estimated (they DO tend to be conservative you know).
Jeff Green (15:51:35) : Its investing in our country to save money down the road. We will be able to have a more stable energy economy. Reducing our dependence on foreign oil brings the several hundred billion dollars per year back home.
FANTASY, sheer self delusion. Vehicles run on oil, electricity is made from coal. We are the “Saudi Arabia” of coal. NOT using our major domestic energy source can not in any way reduce imports. Eliminate 100% of coal usage and it will do NOTHING to oil usage. They go into different machinery.
OIL will only be reduced by replacing the vehicle fleet (since that is where the oil is used). That task will take at a minimum a decade and more likely two and cost $ Trillions. Just take the cost of the fleet (no, ALL of it, including train engines and garbage trucks and ships at sea…) and divide by the population of the country (yes, people pay for things, directly or indirectly, it all comes from a person in the end). THAT is the cost of replacing oil. Well, not quite all of it. You also have to amortize the remaining life of all the oil infrastructure that gets removed before it’s time (think pipelines, oil refineries, fuel trucks, gas stations) and ADD all the costs for whatever new infrastructure is needed. (No, there is not enough infrastructure in the grid “as is” to charge all our cars, even if we had electric cars. It is sized for what we do now.)
The best way to “replace oil” is with coal to oil conversion. It works today. It can use the existing oil infrastructure and the present vehicle fleet. It is cost effective with oil at $70+ as it is today. It does not require ‘fleet replacement’ and it uses a domestic energy supply that we have in abundance. CTL Coal To Liquids and GTL Gas To Liquids can give us energy independence in about 5 years of construction time and at reasonable costs.
It is forbidden by the “Coal Is Evil” mantra. You can speculate as to why…
(Hint: How much does Saudi Arabia contribute to various political campaigns via it’s holding companies?… What would it be worth to guarantee a decade or two of continued OPEC oil demand? )
Smokey (17:11:18) :
Jeff Green (16:01:13) says:
[“When you get a better understanding of the science you will get it.”
Ah. So that is how Green explains the details of Cap & Trade? No wonder the alarmist crowd can’t get anything right, whether it’s sea levels, drowning polar bears, computer models, global sea ice extent, the ozone hole, glaciers, ocean acidification, runaway global warming, hurricanes, etc., etc.
Every alarmist prediction has been wrong. Their CO2=AGW conjecture fails. Despite that list of uninterrupted failures, Green is now preposterously claiming that the government will come in under its C&T budget!
We’ll see how that one works out]
http://www.noanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090916_globalstats.html
NOAA has declared warmest sea temps warmest ever for summer and august.
Water has a higher thermal mass than land. This will bring temperatures higher and the global cooling argument will cool off. The future data will just not bear out your distorted argument until the next La Nina
There are people on this thread that understand what I am saying. Your world view gets in the way of even understanding the data. Right now the artic is experiencing warmer average temperatures more so than the rest of the world.
The process of polar amplification is in full force now.
James Hansen predicted that with a simpler computer model than they have today back in 1988. He is the winner of being right.
peer (15:05:25) : “If prices are going to be increased that much, who benefits. Obviously not the consumer. Government? ” If you create a market where you can basically sell air, there will be some people speculating on it’s price
This is a nice video showing what happens in a commodity market gone wild. This is what could happen in a carbon credit commodity market, and likely what those behind the scenes are hoping for :
Rolling Stone: The Great American Bubble Machine (in 5 parts)
Folks, we should not pick on Jeff Green.
Yes, I disagree with him on just about everything (particularly on his cost analysis a la the Stern Review), but nonetheless he deserves common courtesy.
Who knows, maybe he will pick up a few pieces of data that will make him think twice. We mustn’t jump all over new arrivals who do not agree with the skeptical majority here. Yeah, it’s tempting, on account of how we skeptics get jumped all over elsewhere, but we need to transcend all that.
We want to argue the facts of the matter to the best of our knowledge and ability. And do not forget that with the science so poorly understood, all sorts of climate surprises could well be just around the corner. Any scientific pov must be theoretically falsifiable, and that applies to both sides.
Jeff Green (16:09:53) : As much as you don’t want to hear it, government is the only answer.
I agree. But you must bear in mind that the question was: “How can you really screw up a functioning economy?”
Jeff Green (17:10:13) :
James Hansen is an irrelevant person Jeff. Why do you keep talking about him?
IanM (17:42:04) :
Jeff Green-
[While you obviously hold your ideas firmly, you are showing manifold signs of extreme naivete. Just out of curiosity, do you have any post-secondary education in any of the sciences?]
IanM
I have a BSEET. I have been studying climate for about 2 years now.
@ur momisugly Jeff Green: From up thread you said: “As much as you don’t want to hear it, government is the only answer.”
Question: What form of government are you referring to? Be specific, please.
Jeff Green (17:28:35) :
The process of polar amplification is in full force now.
Near as I can tell the last decade, which has been marked by the largest increases in open water in the summer Arctic, has also been characterized by flat to declining global temps. I’ve got to get me some of those polar amplifiers to hand out to the bozos who are always driving thru my neighborhood at 2 AM with their hip hop blasting.
You really need to pick up the level of your game, otherwise the only ones who’ll appreciate your appearances here will be Flanagan and his broheims, since you’ll make even their lame efforts look positively brilliant.
Gene Nemetz (18:14:19) :
Jeff Green (17:10:13) :
[James Hansen is an irrelevant person Jeff. Why do you keep talking about him?]
James Hansen won the prize. Observations of the climate were very close to what his paper was back in 1988. There are 1000s of scientists studying the climate in the world. Of the people studying climate very few doubt AGW foundation. Even Richard Lindzen’s negative feedback postions are going down the tubes. That’s why its called an unfortunate truth. LOL
Jeff Green (17:10:13) :
There is enough oil in Alaska to bring gas down to $1.00 dollar a gallon in the US. This is what needs to take place.
China is building a new coal powered electricity plant at the pace of 1 every 2 weeks. The US needs to match and exceed that kind of aggression .
These are the only solutions that make sense Jeff. It would be a terrible shame to waste our resources–both natural and human!
Come back to the real world.
America must once again become the greatest Nation in the world. We are well capable of it—and it would be fun to do it again!!!
Gene Nemetz (18:09:52), interesting post, thanx for sharing.
Jeff Green (18:23:25):
“James Hansen won the prize.”
Which prize? Specifically.
All this for no measurable effect on climate…
Take a look at the Obama ‘proposed budget’ overview at:
http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy10/browse.html
Indicates a proposed increase of the deficit by about $6.9 Trillion between 2010 and 2019. Also shows a revenue stream from ‘climate revenues’ of about $646 Billion. That starts in 2012, so not sure how it relates to Waxman-Markey, unless that is when the actual taxing begins… Anyway, at least $79 Billion a year starting in 2012, wonder who is actually going to pay that? If you divide that by the tax paying population of the US, about 138 Million (from wiki answers, so…), you can see that the Obama administration expects to garner about $572 per tax payer from ‘climate income’ per year.
Over at CP Jeff Green says:
September 16, 2009 at 6:53 pm
I have been on the WUWT website talking to deniers. Its a hoot. All they have is their own stories and no data.
Over here Jeff Green (14:48:42) says: The NYU study finds that finds that the benefits outweigh the costs by 9:1 .
Yet he gives no data or link backing his claim. How he measures the benefits and what the benefits are is not known.
And his claim of a six degree rise in global temperatures by 2100 should be filed away with this years hurricane forecast. Even with the warmest ocean temperatures ever recorded in the history of mankind, the hurricanes aren’t buying it.
Jeff Green (16:31:36) :
Its come at a time when its needed the most
It didn´t and it is not needed at all..unless you want to kill birds with windmills or spreading snow or bs with the same!
It´s really so funny!..so you are one of those who were really absolutely cheated and didn´t realize it yet.
Do you know tham I am a third world foreigner who has nothing to gain or lose in this issue, but who is watching how the first country of the world is becoming the last one. Do you know that the USA has lost its 1st.place as the most competitive economy?,etc,etc.
I have witnessed in my life the fall of the soviet union and now….come on, wake up!, you are becoming a banana republic!
Dave Wendt (18:18:22) :
Jeff Green (17:28:35) :
The process of polar amplification is in full force now.
[Near as I can tell the last decade, which has been marked by the largest increases in open water in the summer Arctic, has also been characterized by flat to declining global temps. ]
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090916_globalstats.html
This is a weak to moderate El Nino and yet we have the warmest average ocean temps ever. This is a strong sign of things to come.
We all come from different places and I enjoy a good talk with people who have a different point of view than I do.
Within the natural variation there is the AGW signal. The 10 warmest years have been since 1998.