August 2009 Global Temperature Update: +0.23 deg. C
Dr. Roy Spencer September 4th, 2009
August 2009 saw a modest fall in the global average tropospheric temperature anomaly, from +0.41 deg. C in July to +0.23 deg. C in August. The tropical and Northern Hemispheric troposphere remain quite warm, but the Southern Hemisphere cooled by over 0.4 deg. C in the last month.
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 +0.304 +0.443 +0.165 -0.036
2009 2 +0.347 +0.678 +0.016 +0.051
2009 3 +0.206 +0.310 +0.103 -0.149
2009 4 +0.090 +0.124 +0.056 -0.014
2009 5 +0.045 +0.046 +0.044 -0.166
2009 6 +0.003 +0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 +0.412 +0.212 +0.610 +0.427
2009 8 +0.231 +0.284 +0.179 +0.455
NOTE: For those who are monitoring the daily progress of global-average temperatures here, we are still working on switching from NOAA-15 to Aqua AMSU, which will provide more accurate tracking on a daily basis. We will be including both our lower troposphere (LT) and mid-tropospheric (MT) pre-processing of the data. We will also be adding global sea surface temperature anomalies from the AMSR-E instrument on board the NASA Aqua satellite.
Sorry
What natural, and whats not??????????
http://members.shaw.ca/sch25/FOS/HoloceneOptimumTemperature.jpg
What does a “climate change” signal look like??????????
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17742-worlds-climate-could-cool-first-warm-later.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news
tokyoboy: “Could a sea ice expert teach me please?”
Not necessarily an expert but the DMI graph is based on a 30% sea ice threshold while the other one is based on 15% I believe.
Stephen, I so enjoy your posts. They are clear and relatively free of new-age jargon. I also appreciate your use of directly observable mechanisms as the glue in your thesis while giving mention to but still putting aside “what we don’t know”.
Stephen Wilde (06:10:12) :
“Extra energy from the oceans (often a huge amount) is disposed of in exactly the same way with no tipping point in sight but with air circulation shifts of hundreds of miles latitudinally. There mght be a latitudinal shift of less than a mile from anything that humans could achieve. Wholly insignificant against natural variability.”
Right you are.
The sun sends in a single hour the entire energy budget humans use in an entire year.
From the total CO2 budget human emissions only contribute 3%
That is 3% from 385 parts per million currently present in our atmosphere.
Wholly insignificant against natural variability indeed.
“A totaly meaningless statement unless you can quantify natural variability”
He was making a statement to the reporter. What the reporter (or sub editor) came up with in the headline and introduction did not agree with what the scientist actually told her.
@ur momisugly M White (07:33:34) :
“What does a “climate change” signal look like??????????”
Excellent question, simple answer. Whatever the climate modelers say it is because (all together now) the models predicted it.
Higher, lower, October high, October low, 2011 flat, 2010 cold (or warm)… one of the models predicted it, and since the models assume CO2 as the climate driver, there’s your “climate change” signal.
The Ideal Climate Change Signal looks like a stock certificate and a bill sent by the computer model to the printer.
They get the shares. You get the bill.
May be OT here,
but lots of birds did leave already,
black elderberries are great this year ,
did harvest them last weekend, about three weeks early,
local temperatures are below last solar minimum here,
– I do overlay daily temps from 1996/1997 with
current daily temperatures (currently compared to 1997),
we’re here currently about 1.2 °C below Aug./early Sep. 1997,
(using 14 days centered moving average).
My early guess-timating for winter 2009/2010, done in May/June
this year was a rather warm one, exception a pretty cold phase
between last week of January 2010 and 2nd week of February 2010.
(I was simply thinking SOI and later ENSO/ONI may point a medium El Nino,
not to a weak one). Now it looks like Dec/Jan/Feb could match and even
be colder than last year. At least my roses and my cameliaes do support my
opinion, up to now.
KlausB
When it comes to early changes in the leaves for Fall I have to say we’re seeing some early changing of the leaves here too, cottonwood leaves have been trickling down, the locusts have started dropping a trickle of leaves in late August and I’ve seen a small tree or two around our neighborhood bursting with color already.
We’re far from peak color yet, but it has starteda bit earlier than usual. Also, we usually don’t notice migrations of certain songbirds like robins here, we can have quite a few robins when the temps. are well below freezing and the ground is covered in snow. Our squirrels don’t hibernate either because they know they can just raid the bird feeders.
Josh (22:04:05) :
Update from 10,000′ in the Central Rocky Mountains: Autumn is in full swing. The yellowing of the Aspen leaves commenced a couple of weeks ago, and peak colors should appear in maybe two weeks. We had a cold rainstorm roll through today, and the peaks above 12,000 got snow. This early Autumn comes on the heels of a short, cooler than average summer.
Pike’s Peak got snow the other day.
Mark
How that drop of 0.4°C in SH equates with NOAA´s Nino. Is it NOAA´s or a Hansen´s model “Virtual Nino” (kind of transgender Nina)?.
Pamela Gray (07:51:50)
Thanks Pamela.
Should be quite clear in a couple of years as to whether my theses are broadly correct or not.
The key combination of variable oceanic energy release and a subsequent shift in the air circulation systems seems to be my unique selling point.
No other climate driving force comes close on timescales of less than centuries and on longer timescales solar variability seems perfectly adequate.
The entire AGW proposition depends on increasing CO2, rising air temperatures and an assumed absence of an alternative climate driver. I’ve suggested one and for 18 months now no AGW supporter has been able to discount it.
@Adam from Kansas,
Dear Adam,
the changing of leaves depend do of two different values
(silly me, my born language isn’t English)
– as first is not temperature, but precipitation (or lack of)
– temperature comes as next
– finally, the mixture of both and when, is what counts in the end.
Here, first colour changing of leaves was already at 20th of July,
about 6 weeks ahead, but – mostly – due to dryness.
But more, my alpine asters are ahead by 4 weeks,
last year, they did still bloom at December 16th.
Will have a daily look on them, may be they tell me more.
KlausB
KlausB (12:27:23)
I thought trees changed their leaf colour primarily in response to a change in light intensity.
Usually cloudy skies reduce light intenslity as well as accompanying cooler temperatures so it isn’t cooler temperatures in themselves that cause the colour change.
Cold and drought damages leaves too but via different processes which do not always involve colour changes over time.
So the question is whether the timing of colour changes in leaves is sensitive to tiny changes in solar radiation separately from such changes induced simply by increased cloudiness or gradual seasonal changes. I’ve no idea but it sounds plausible.
Oxfam activist danish model and photographer Helen Christensen, scaring peruvian local indians, at Cusco, Peru, about “Climate Change”, to provoke them against government:
“We are at a critical tipping point. We need to put pressure on our governments in order for them to take the necessary, radical steps that are needed to lower CO2 emissions. There’s no time left, it is absolutely imperative to act now. Hopefully the only benefit of this UN conference won’t be just a boost to Danish tourism.
“http://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressrelease/2009-09-04/helena-christensen-witnesses-climate-impacts-peru
http://www.elcomercio.com.pe/impresa/edicion/2009-09-05/ecvf050909a20/04
This is really a work of “intelligence” against third world governments and people, which should be address as a foreing meddling in internal affairs, even as foreing agression.
I find it interesting that oak trees around my house are already sprouting nearly full size acorns—seems a month or so too early, and this is in north Florida, where the cooling weather being felt in the north during this summer did not reach (though it seems that we had a fewer number of hot days after June).
So how do oak trees know that they have got to finish their reproductive cycle earlier? Could it be that their leaves are equipped with ultraviolet radiation sensors, and the sensors detected the diminished UV solar output of the current solar cycle (more marked than in the visible spectrum) which in turn triggered hormonal change that is speeding up their winter weather preparation?
A mechanism using a chemical that is sensitive to a prolonged decrease in UV input might be at work acting like a fuse that decides on when to trigger the hormonal change.
Nogw (11:59:59) :
How that drop of 0.4°C in SH equates with NOAA´s Nino. Is it NOAA´s or a Hansen´s model “Virtual Nino” (kind of transgender Nina)?.
Well, they might point you to the numbers for the tropics, which actually increased just a bit.
Stephen Wilde (12:44:24) :
KlausB (12:27:23)
I thought trees changed their leaf colour primarily in response to a change in light intensity.
Usually cloudy skies reduce light intenslity as well as accompanying cooler temperatures so it isn’t cooler temperatures in themselves that cause the colour change.
Cold and drought damages leaves too but via different processes which do not always involve colour changes over time.
So the question is whether the timing of colour changes in leaves is sensitive to tiny changes in solar radiation separately from such changes induced simply by increased cloudiness or gradual seasonal changes. I’ve no idea but it sounds plausible.
The primary trigger is the length of day (or night).
George PS (12:45:58) :
So how do oak trees know that they have got to finish their reproductive cycle earlier? Could it be that their leaves are equipped with ultraviolet radiation sensors, and the sensors detected the diminished UV solar output of the current solar cycle (more marked than in the visible spectrum) which in turn triggered hormonal change that is speeding up their winter weather preparation?
A mechanism using a chemical that is sensitive to a prolonged decrease in UV input might be at work acting like a fuse that decides on when to trigger the hormonal change.
Not likely since the UV you mention doesn’t make it through the atmosphere! Not much chance of making it through the cuticle either.
Frederick Michael (06:41:15) :
Mark (07:40:33) :
Thank you for your mentorship on my simple question:
tokyoboy (01:27:47) :
Way OT, but I am eager to know about the scaling between a Denmark organization and IRAC/JAXA in graphing the arctic ice extent.
Jetzt alles klar.
About trees and change of color, here in southern New Brunswick (about 45°N) we have seen red tinges since early August. This is not the first year that we have seen some color early, but what this summer can do is to put to rest the hypothesis that it is due to lack of precipitation. We have had LOTS this year. It seemed that every second or third day was wet until after the middle of August. It’s only since then that I’ve been able to start painting exterior wood. (Unless the wood is good and dry, moisture inside will cause blistering and lifting of the paint.)
We’ve had six continuous days of sunshine and temperatures in the 20-27°C range (i.e., very comfortable) and the forecast is for this to continue at least another three days. Despite these very favorable conditions, our hummingbirds have left. Do they know something about coming weather? Did the fact that the 4th was full moon have anything to do with it? (Do they fly at night?)
IanM
It might be worth collating Nature’s early autumn/fall bad winter signals. A few from Europe but most comments here from North America so far, with one from Kabul, Afghanistan.
Stephen Wilde (12:44:24) as regards the color change here in the Rockies as Josh (22:04:05) mentioned, it is frost that causes this change. Josh was talking of 10K ft, I live at 6.7K ft in the central rockies and had temperatures in the 35-36°F range four nights the second week of august. Just from altitude it would have been 12-15°F cooler at 10K ft. The plants are showing their exposure to that now.
5 09 2009
JLKrueger (05:42:24) :
Oh yeah?
We had snow in the mountains outside Kabul into mid August (last year it was all gone in early June).
…
Thank you for the service!