Hot off the press from Dr. Roy Spencer. After being essentially zero last month, we have a jump to .410°C in July. This was not unexpected, as a El Nino has been developing.
July 2009 Global Temperature Update: +0.41 deg. C
August 5th, 2009
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.304 0.443 0.165 -0.036
2009 2 0.347 0.678 0.016 0.051
2009 3 0.206 0.310 0.103 -0.149
2009 4 0.090 0.124 0.056 -0.014
2009 5 0.045 0.046 0.044 -0.166
2009 6 0.003 0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 0.410 0.211 0.609 0.427
July 2009 experienced a large jump in global average tropospheric temperatures, from +0.00 deg. C in June to +0.41 deg. C in July, with the tropics and southern hemisphere showing the greatest warming.
NOTE: For those who are monitoring the daily progress of global-average temperatures here, we will be switching from NOAA-15 to Aqua AMSU in the next few weeks, which will provide more accurate tracking on a daily basis. We will be including both our lower troposphere (LT) and mid-tropospheric (MT) pre-processing of the data.
Lucia at the Blackboard has an analaysis of RSS, which came in higher this month also, at 0.392°C.
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009/rss-for-july-0392-c-graphs-to-follow/
I’ve made a graph comparing sst’s between 1878-1892(green) and 1998-2009(red)
with solar cycle 12 below in red.
http://s630.photobucket.com/albums/uu21/stroller-2009/?action=view¤t=sst-1892.gif
As you can see, the timing with the solar cycle is similar to today, with the current el nino arriving in an extended minimum. Cycle 12 made an Rmax of 74ish compared to cycle 23 at 130 or so, and the sea surface temps consequently rose 0.2C or so less (take note Leif) after the recovery from the big el nino of 1878.
On the basis of this comparison, I’d estimate that SST’s will rise another 0.1-0.15C by October, and then the el nino will begin to fade, with SST dropping below Jan 2007 levels by November 2010.
2010/2011 will be a nasty winter.
Plan ahead, grow some extra food next year while it’s warm.
Pamela, Ethanol production is up 2 Billion Gallon/Yr from this time last year. Production jumped 500 Million Galllon/Yr in just the last month.
Grains are an International Market. The Midwestern “Corn Growing” states are predicting very nice yields.
Climate Heretic (08:24:04) :
But if the food was available futher south…….
To all who keeps saying that if the temperature rises (or presumably falls) we’ll just adapt therefore GW does not matter.
Well if you say crops are failing because of the cold and disaster is upon us then why not simply adapt?
or is it perhaps a little more tricky than you thought?
Oh, I forgot to put up the link for ethanol production.
http://www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/locations/
Pamela Gray (08:18:33) :
Kum, take a lesson from Mary Hinge. Your post will bite you in the arse.
Lake a tesson from Hary Minge. Your bost will pite you in the arse.
It’s difficult to say for certain which scenario is the most appropriate to use.
“A” fits the actual CO2 concentrations since 1988… But the other trace gases fall below “A”… CH4 is pretty close to “C”.
From 1988-2009 Hansen’s model shows…
“A” shows the anomaly grow from about 0.2C to 0.95C… Net +0.75C
“B” shows the anomaly grow from about 0.2C to 0.8C… Net +0.6C
The anomaly exceeds 1.0C on “A” in late 2009 and on “B” in early 2010.
UAH’s average anomaly for 1988 was 0.11C… So far the average 2009 anomaly is 0.20C… Net +0.09C.
.75/.09 = 6.46
.80/.09 = 8.08
Hansen’s “A” predicted 8 times (600%) as much warming as UAH recorded from 1988-2009 and “B” predicted 6.5 times (650%) as much warming.
Even if I use a 0.41 anomaly for 2009… Hansen’s “A” is 400% of- and “B” is 300% of the UAH warming.
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Kum Dollison (08:58:41) :
Pamela, Ethanol production is up 2 Billion Gallon/Yr from this time last year. Production jumped 500 Million Galllon/Yr in just the last month.
Grains are an International Market. The Midwestern “Corn Growing” states are predicting very nice yields.
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I guess we can all look forward to much higher food prices — or maybe the humans can just start eating algae. That seems to be where the warmists want us to go.
Lol, Englishmen who live in Suffolk are sceptical of all enthusiasm?
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Phil. (07:03:47) :
Roy Spencer (16:48:33) :
Large month-to-month changes in tropospheric temperature are likely to be dominated by non-radiative transfers of heat, that is, changes in the rate at which convection transfers heat from the surface to the atmosphere.
Surface to atmosphere transfer will still be dominated by long wave radiation, distribution within the troposphere will be dominated by convection.
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Hey Phil. What % heat is transferred via radiation vs. convection – IYO.
Western Washington was hot, for about 4 days. Now it’s in the mid-60s. A drop of almost 40 degrees from last week. Still waiting for the mass extinctions from such wild temperature fluctuations.
This is great news for the Pacific SW of the USA. I was getting tired of the pathetically weak rainy seasons we had the past three years.
The world is not swimming in grain.
“The International Finance Corporation, the World Bank’s private sector arm, will boost lending to agribusiness by up to 30 per cent in the next three years, as it promotes the role of the private sector in the fight against hunger.”
“After focusing on oil, metals and minerals for decades, Japan’s huge trading houses are turning to agricultural commodities, with Tokyo enthusiastically supporting the shift amid concerns about local and global food security.”
“World leaders on Friday pledged to commit $20bn over three years for a “food security initiative” to develop agriculture in poor countries, but aid agencies responded with scepticism, pointing to a chain of broken promises and a habit of switching around existing budgets.”
Note the common theme – food security. Hardly jives with a world that’s likely to remain “swimming in grain” is it?
You don’t believe in global warming alarmism?? Oh, you mean you don’t believe the alarming predictions will come true. Different thing altogether. The alarmism is definitely there, but so far nothing alarming, climatically, has happened.
Pamela, I know you love your state; and I’m sorry the local farmers are facing a poor corn crop this year, But E. Oregon is classified as “High Desert.” It’s not, really, prime “corn growing” real estate.
I can sympathise. I grew up trying to raise corn on sub-optimal land. Finally, we got lucky, and switched to watermelons. Life got a lot better.
My take is that the concept of a “global average or mean temperature” is a meaningless concept. If some places cool, some remain relatively static, and some warm, then there is clearly nothing “global” occurring, just lots of little regional things which aren’t connected.
bill (09:16:42) :
or is it perhaps a little more tricky than you thought?
We are more prepared as in the past, indeed, than during the LIA…but it depends if you have enough and dependable energy or not…if you are to depend on windmills with an efficiency of 2.53% (as reported here a few weeks ago, being the figure in Finnland) you will be in real trouble.
Do you remember “Atom for Peace”?, Those were the years of the “Green revolution”in agriculture also, evrything looked OK…until some prophets of doom appear.
Exactly. While Seattle and south was still hot, up in the San Juans it had cooled to the mid-70s, and then mid-60s. Because the winds had changed.
thechuckr (18:52:57) :
Hey!, show me you driver’s license. What if you are next to a volcano, are you still the climate driver?
In view of anything in the future of climate, if we have enough energy, as nuclear, we can manage ourselves happily under any circumstances.
But, as things go on, we’ll have broken by snow windmills (not by WUWT), solar panels covered with ice and…frozen bones.
Your market stats are true. But our ethanol plant in Hermiston went out of business before it even went on line. Global ethanol data won’t help a NE Oregon farmer make a profit this year if he planted a bunch of corn hoping to get it to the plant.
Markets are local in terms of producers staying in business, and global in terms of the stock market price and consumer price. I don’t care about global data. I care about local data. Temperatures affect local data to a far greater degree than global data. The fact that Susie Que went bust on her wheat crop (and her neighbors as well) because of a harvest time rain storm, does not show in your statistics on global markets. The fact that corn IS down in some areas will not reflect in your global statistics. Global statistics do not tell true stories about gain or loss in local farming communities.
That said, if you want to invest in the market, you have the data right, don’t go by what a local farmer says (or me) about his or her loss or gain. And don’t go by what the weather has been like in Idaho. You will lose your shirt if you do.
But if you, Kum, want to start a wheat farm in NE Oregon, forget what the market says. Pay close attention to the weather (and what causes it) and whether or not you have a market you can afford to ship to. If you don’t, you will lose your shirt.
In terms of NE Oregon, ethanol production is down because we don’t have a plant anymore. Wheat (which looks like a bumper crop in the field right now) harvest (you don’t get paid for a high yield till you take that bumper crop off the field) depends on precious few days of perfect weather which we don’t seem to be getting.
Here is a little risk factor for you regarding wheat. Widely distributed unstable weather can ruin the best predictions for wheat that is ready to harvest within a 24 hr period. Corn not so much. Those that invest in agriculture markets should gain some knowledge about the risks of each type of product and invest accordingly.
For wheat, frost will kill the early plant and rain will ruin the harvest. Anything inbetween is not so devastating except for drought. Since much of our wheat is dryland wheat, a drought will kill it. For corn, irrigation keeps it from dieing from lack of water. Too much rain and you will get smaller ears but you will still get ears. The drawback is if you have clay soil that doesn’t drain and then the crop will die in the field. But taken together, corn is a good bet from year to year. Wheat is much more volatile because of its sensitivity to weather and therefore much harder to predict till the crop is in.
Let me give you another take on this. When the weather is predicted to be bad, farmers work 24 hr periods to get hay up and wheat off the field. They go all night and all day, catch some z’s, and then start up again. And worry about feeding their families inbetween if they can’t get er done. Even when the market says that things are peachy.
Nogw (09:49:11) : …but it depends if you have enough and dependable energy or not
So you are going to warm/cool your crops with nuclear power. Thats a new one on me!
I thought people here were suggesting that warm/cool tolerant crops are grown or moving farms north or south. A simple matter, cusing little hardship!!!!!!!!
But of course its not just a case of warmer / colder but much more complex weather patterns occuring. Adapt now to survive!!
I’m up on Whidbey Island, 70 or so miles north of Seattle. It was hot here for about 3 days (in the high 80s/mid 90s), then it cooled down pretty quickly back to what it was before, mid 70s, now mid 60s. For us only a small part of July was very warm.
Gene Nemetz (07:03:15) :
Bob Tisdale (02:03:41) :
Michael Hauber: “It isn’t CO2, because that only causes about 0.0015 degrees increase each month. Just like the previous short term cooling trend was not Co2, or the failure of Co2 to warm, but something else.”
Really? Care to illustrate where you got that figure of 0.0015 degrees from.
I’d like to see it too! Why didn’t he pick 0.0016, or 0.0014? 😉
To be fair to michael he did say ‘about’
Perhaps he means 0.008 +- 0.007
gtrip (22:21:21) : “Where does the white go when the snow melts?”
Leif Svalgaard (22:50:55) : “A candle works not by providing light, but by sucking up the dark. Proof: the wick gets black.”
It is precisely this black that melts the snow which transfers the white back to the candle. A complete system.