Hot off the press from Dr. Roy Spencer. After being essentially zero last month, we have a jump to .410°C in July. This was not unexpected, as a El Nino has been developing.
July 2009 Global Temperature Update: +0.41 deg. C
August 5th, 2009
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.304 0.443 0.165 -0.036
2009 2 0.347 0.678 0.016 0.051
2009 3 0.206 0.310 0.103 -0.149
2009 4 0.090 0.124 0.056 -0.014
2009 5 0.045 0.046 0.044 -0.166
2009 6 0.003 0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 0.410 0.211 0.609 0.427
July 2009 experienced a large jump in global average tropospheric temperatures, from +0.00 deg. C in June to +0.41 deg. C in July, with the tropics and southern hemisphere showing the greatest warming.
NOTE: For those who are monitoring the daily progress of global-average temperatures here, we will be switching from NOAA-15 to Aqua AMSU in the next few weeks, which will provide more accurate tracking on a daily basis. We will be including both our lower troposphere (LT) and mid-tropospheric (MT) pre-processing of the data.
Lucia at the Blackboard has an analaysis of RSS, which came in higher this month also, at 0.392°C.
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009/rss-for-july-0392-c-graphs-to-follow/
By the way, gifts and sacrifices will be accepted at 6:00 pm each day. Why? I apparently have found favor with mother nature. I mowed the lawn yesterday and then just minutes later the sky opened its zipper and peed like a drunkard. Complete with ice pellets, winds, and bolts of lightening! I prefer cash.
LionelB: I’m not sure of this. Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands had a hot Spring, June was very hot, July was hotter than normal but not excessively hotter. August started OK: we have 30 C rightnow. Temperatures are supposed to “plunge” over the weekend… and reach the norm (22 C).
Pamela Gray (07:03:20) :
Any weather person willing to predict under neutral conditions has cahones
First of all, in spanish your last word would be improper for a lady to pronounce. But, going to the problem. Any weather person who can have access to this graph (Geoff Sharp’s): http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/category/new-research/
Or this , from our co-blogger Vukcevic:
http://www.geocities.com/vukcevicu/PolarField1Cr.gif
knows the future.
Pieter F (16:10:32) :
No, about 0.8°C on GISTEMP scale, about 0.5°C on UAH/RSS or about 0.6 on HadCrut. From Scenario B, as this scenario matches most closely the actual history of the forcing, no matter what the original labels were.
Pamela Gray (07:03:20) : I agree. It’s just that at my Co. meeting we have a Warmist who “Heard on the evening New two weels ago that Nino was here.””HEELP Algor, Gaia
SaaaaveUUS!” She regards any one who doesn’t believe as a ignorant clinger. My Boss is an ex-Coast Guard officer,and the another is a retired (but not ex-Marine) who was a weather forcaster.She believes what say, Ann Curry or even Kieth Olbermann says.But sicence! ha you aren’t attuned to what is really going on-infidels!
I made the comment of a weak to moderate ENSO and had that thrown back in my face..
wonder what the ARGO buoy system is telling us about ocean temps ?
I’m guessing that the slow heat loss of the last few years is continuing. The heat has to come from somewhere.
In the UK, July was cooler than the standard reference period 1970-2000! By 0.4c. It was also the wettest on record!
Folks, before you start blathering about “failing wheat crops,” and “starvation,” DO A LITTLE RESEARCH. “ALARMIST” rhetoric is unseemly from “either” side of the aisle.
Wheat prices are DOWN 45% from a year, ago. The world is swimming in wheat. And, Corn. And, Soybeans.
http://charts.aghost.net/popup/agonlineCharts.cfm?key=38103A48-EB6A-454C-A70D-16C8156C38BD&cid=2052&sid=1&symbol=W9U
Dave, you have developed an infant version of one of the statistical models used by NOAA to predict El Nino. 3 out of the 8 statistical models predict neutral conditions. The dynamical models (what we propose are the mathematical coded mechanisms in 14 different versions) are a relatively newcomer to predictions and I believe NOAA got into the act of developing them because IPCC brought them to popular standing. In the NOAA website they discuss the difference between the two types of models and are humble enough to say that the statistical models are used as the measuring stick of the dynamical models. Would that the IPCC be as humble.
The weakly positive SOI value for July tells me this El Nino will likely be a dud.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml
I expect it to compeltely fizzle by the end of the year.
Mary, your back peddling has splashed mud on my post! Can’t you just say thank you for the information you were given?????
It is true that we (on WUWT) do not hear much about WX in China or India, even though there are many smart people with computers there.
Maybe their climatescientists do not believe in AGW, so normal people, frankly, don’t give a damn.
The Hansen scenarios are dynamical models with calculated forcings based on different CO2 ppm conditions. Therefore B is wrong (it has a much lower CO2 ppm code than is currently the estimated case in the atmosphere). Its calculations and resultant temps do not in any way match current conditions. According to their model for current CO2 ppm, we should be LOTS hotter.
Jimmy Haigh (03:46:18) :
Moderators. I’ve said it before – the name ‘Mary Hinge’ is a profanity in the UK. It’s a Spoonerism…
Jimmy, thanks. I had to look it up, but it’s a great day when you learn something new.
Kum, take a lesson from Mary Hinge. Your post will bite you in the arse.
Stephen Wilde (07:27:06) : Behind air circulation it is, as you know, the Length of the Day, which UN’s FAO uses to forecast, among others, anchovy catches in the pacific, and it works quite well.
See: http://www.giurfa.com/fao_temps.jpg
It is a model which backed by reality works.
Mary Hinge
Nice try but you cannot claim one thing and get away with saying it was the primary cause and then fall back on other conditions based on the fact they start their migration in the spring. POPULATION was the driver not the climate, the population exhausted the food sources and migrated in greater numbers. Simple logic dictates that more butterflies = increased habitat for support.
The Butterflies have a 23 day life span in total with about 14 days for migration, so based on that and the arrival time in the UK in May they are on the 4th Generation at that point, so if there was no food for the caterpillers than the population would be much less based on survivability rates for larve. Since the numbers arriving were great then one can only come to the conclusion that suitable foliage was found to support the migration over multiple generations.
So your assertion of climate forcing them to range farther is again proven invalid based on the lifecycle of the insect when compared to the migration timeline ( first arrivals in the UK in May, NOT JUNE).
rbateman (18:17:56) :
…
Not in my state was there global scale-tipping heat.
I’ll let Texas speak for themselves.
Texas. It’s like a whole ‘nother country….here in north Texas, we’ve had a pretty reasonable summer. Cool wet spring, hot June, moderate July, the lakes are full — and that’s great news. South Texas – constant heat and sparse rain. I have palm trees on a property near Corpus Christi that are distressed from lack of rain. I think I’d like a nice tropical storm to come ashore between Corpus and Brownsville and then turn north. Where are those storms anyway?
First shot.
In NE Oregon, red winter wheat (the preferred bread flour kind) is ready to harvest if we get just a few more dry days (the moisture content is still a bit too high). Alas, that will not be happening. The wheat that has not been harvested yet will get rained on and will sprout right on the stalks in the fields. That is those that are left standing after the storm. So no, the farmers here are NOT swimming in wheat. I don’t give a damn about anywhere else.
Second shot.
News reports everywhere say that the corn harvest is down. The ears are smaller and many fields were swamped in water and died before the crop could be harvested. The market is down because the ethanol plants that used at least some of the corn have gone out of business.
Third shot.
Soy beans are a cool weather plant. Good for them.
Anybody else want a go at it?
rephelan (19:11:51) : BTW, do they adjust satellites with surface stations?, that would be sound if these were OK and not like Anthony has showed us they are.
Taking into consideration that Copenhaguen is ahead…. After it is approved chances are temperatures will decrease.
bluegrue (07:51:34) : No, about 0.8°C on GISTEMP scale, about 0.5°C on UAH/RSS or about 0.6 on HadCrut. I agree with your numbers, but those are are averages. Throw in +/-.5° excursions on top of those numbers, and that is what we should be expecting. Problem is there is nothing, observation-wise, on the high side of those means, ie. we should be seeing anomalies at and above 1°C according to the models. Does anone have a sigma for the UAH anomalies? I’m taking a guess at it being ~.25°.
So what is this, the differential between surface temperatures and out going radiation, or just a lag of the June heat wave? As I live on the surface and not up in the troposphere, I know which temperatures matter to me, July has been cold in both hemispheres. http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/p/22784/746890.aspx#746890
We could, easily, set a new record for corn “yields” this year. From NCGA:
http://corncommentary.com/
This might have something to do with July.
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/OLR/ts.r4.l.gif