Hot off the press from Dr. Roy Spencer. After being essentially zero last month, we have a jump to .410°C in July. This was not unexpected, as a El Nino has been developing.
July 2009 Global Temperature Update: +0.41 deg. C
August 5th, 2009
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.304 0.443 0.165 -0.036
2009 2 0.347 0.678 0.016 0.051
2009 3 0.206 0.310 0.103 -0.149
2009 4 0.090 0.124 0.056 -0.014
2009 5 0.045 0.046 0.044 -0.166
2009 6 0.003 0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 0.410 0.211 0.609 0.427
July 2009 experienced a large jump in global average tropospheric temperatures, from +0.00 deg. C in June to +0.41 deg. C in July, with the tropics and southern hemisphere showing the greatest warming.
NOTE: For those who are monitoring the daily progress of global-average temperatures here, we will be switching from NOAA-15 to Aqua AMSU in the next few weeks, which will provide more accurate tracking on a daily basis. We will be including both our lower troposphere (LT) and mid-tropospheric (MT) pre-processing of the data.
Lucia at the Blackboard has an analaysis of RSS, which came in higher this month also, at 0.392°C.
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009/rss-for-july-0392-c-graphs-to-follow/
Could the lack of tropical storms have something to do with it? Is the upper atmosphere cooler than normal for this time of year? Just wondering if a lack of tropical storms this year has resulted in a lack of heat transfer from the lower atmosphere to the upper layers. My intuition is that if this is the case, the upper atmosphere would be cooler than normal while the lower layers would be warmer.
Cairns in Queensland Australia has been pretty cool last month…. and cloudy during the day.
The extra warmth must have been out over the ocean ‘eh?
rbateman and others:
I think this is a clear proof that, indeed, weather is not climate. To have a better view of what’s going on for the globe, you need to take a look a the world itself, not only at your backyard. In this case, lndia, China, Nothern Africa and Southern Europe have been having some impressive temperatures. A friend of mine was in Sevilla in July and reported me temperatures of about 40-45 degrees (well above average).
My advice would be to go through different weather reports, not only those you can find on WUWT, to get a broader view. On one hand, there were 8 posts about “colder weather” in July on WUWT, not a single one on “hot” records. On the other hand, we had the second highest July global anomaly. You need to find more sources of information.
Anyone else notice that I leave for a few hours and some truly nasty people come out of the wood work? Picking on all kinds of people just for having the gut instinct reaction that something is amiss?
There is nothing wrong with be paranoid per se, and while I don’t agree with those who are “skeptical” of the UAH product (whether they are deniers like myself or believers like some of the bullies) I understand their suspicion. By the way, it’s interesting to note that nobody has noted that the so-called “issue” of the “seasonal cycle” means that this anomaly value is probably spuriously warm (not that the whole jump would be accounted for)! 😆
Roy: “In daily satellite data we find from global ocean averages that SSTs tend to peak 2 weeks before tropospheric temperature, then a minimum in SST is observed two weeks after that. This lag in convective heat transfer is something that the climate models don’t do very well (I’ve been analyzing it in the IPCC models), but it’s not clear what that might mean in terms of long-term climate change.”
Whatever it means, it sounds interesting, at least from an academic standpoint! Publication worthy even!
I would also like to add that I don’t believe much in the el nino/la nina climate/weather driver that I have seen in so many posts and discussions. I do not deny that the el nino/la nina definition (as I understand it) being the measured temperature of warming/cooling of a specific area of the earth. It is not a driver though of weather/climate but just a reflection of the current weather/climate that is happening. The warming of the ocean does affect the weather the same as the warming of land affects the weather. But it is not a predictor of temperatures, rainfall, or lack thereof for a region with certainty.
The el nino/la nina theory is no different then the C02 global warming theory. It is just an “if this happens AND that happens then this must be true’ type of hypothesis. I have seen no conclusive evidence of ENSO prediction that have happened. Can’t you all see that it is no different (the belief in ENSO as a weather/climate driver) as the CO2 climate driver theory? They both have not been “proved”.
If ENSO can be shown to come from inside our planet (volcanic heating), then it might have some credibility as being a weather/climate changer. Until then it is all just theory, using an observed heating of a particular area, and it is a bad theory at that.
So as you all use your static equations for a baseline and then adjust them using new fluid equations that you all deduced (made up) that should and would happen, just try to remember that science is nothing more than trying to figure out why what you OBSERVED happens.
P.S. If “el nino” developes, can one of you put down in writing something that I can go to that shows that your predictions were right? “Mary Hinge” seems to be well versed on ENSO, maybe she can tell us what to expect…but I know they can’t! Can anyone tell me what Hurricane Felicia will do? What if there has been an earth/gravity shift and now the Pacific storms are now showing characteristic of the previous Atlantic storms. What if the sea temps around Hawaii are wrong because they were “corrected”…to be honest, haven’t seen a storm so well defined as this so far north and with a track such as this. NOAA says that it will diminish as it moves over cooler waters at the same time it says that the waters are warmer…I am guessing that the AGW’s are praying for a hit on HI, it will prove their stronger storm theory as Katrina did to N.O.
I will probably get deleted as a kook since I don’t buy the ENSO theory and I know that you all do. As they said back in the day, I am a [snip]. Just Another [snip] Observer….
“Doesn’t take long does it! What a complete reversal from last month. Maybe you can blame these high temperatures on poorly based satellites or UHI….”
It is my contention that there is no one that knows what is happening with climate. We don’t even have enough weather stations in Earth including the 70% of it: Oceans. We can only average Earth temperature having an uniform coverage of Earth. So most of this discussions seems only conjectures over something we don’t know enough.
While Greg (19,02,10) says that the recent July was very wram for Seatle, word about that hasn’t reached my tomatoes in Bainbridge Island — 30 miles off the ccoast of Seattle. I had read that 2009 coolness had resulted in a 20 % reduction in grain production in Canada and the upper US, so the global uptick for July suggest the presence of major regional differences. My background in organizational psychology led me to look for both temperature changes and the hunan consequences of such changes, using wheat production as a measure for the latter. Following the warmists vs skeptics game reported on WUWT has been a fascinating intellectual diversion, and it occured to me that there might also be here-and-now issues for mankind involved as well — something that wouldn’t require 30 or a hundred years to unfold.
What I found was that, from the standpoint of wheat producvtion, the varied weather conditions in different regions work out to produce a 20 % or more reduction in wheat production for 2009 everywhere I looked, with most of the reduction being caused by drought….as in Russia, the Ukraine, Spain, Argentina, Australia, Texas, and big time in western China. I even came across a site http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/07/world-facing-food-crisis-in-second-half.html
This site is really about world prices for soy beans and such, and it is only at the end of an extensive review of such that the author provides his conclusions, which read as follows:
Conclusion: The world is, without a doubt, facing a food crisis in the second half of 2009.
1) Virtually every country in the world is facing double digits declines in food production (for more info, see Terrible Outlook For 2009 Global Wheat Output and World Still Facing A Global Food Crisis and *****Catastrophic Fall in 2009 Global Food Production*****).
2) World (and US) food stocks are at multi-decade lows.
3) Global demand for agricultural commodities is rising, lead by China.
On one last note, isn’t funny how India’s grain reserves are supposedly overflowing, yet the country is banning exports because of one bad crop? Makes you wonder if there are issues with the quality of those grain reserves.
I have no idea as to how much credence these remarks warrent, but it does look to me as though there is going to be less wheat available next year than has been the case in recent years. I hope that someone will comment as to whether or not that would be important.
Finally, my review of regional extended weather conditions brought a chilling (no pun intended) memory to mind of an article by a paleoclimatologist describing the world wide climate changes that would precede the next glaiation. These included rapid loss of agricultural viability in Canada and the upper US, shorter and cooler summers, and major drought conditions in many parts of the world. My personal notion is that we haven’t reached that point yet and that it will get much hotter (as it did, for example, in the Eemian) before the switch to glaciation occurs.
Maybe you should read up before advising people to grow up. The large numbers of Painted Ladies was due to particularly warm temperatures first in North Africa/Southern Europe then Northern Europe in June. They were trying to find suitable food plants but because it had been so warm and dry they had to go further north to cooler environs. Good thing they are very strong fliers!
This is also in the lower troposhere temperature anomolies here http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_monthly.html
The Antarctic figures are especially interesting, whilst the tropics have increased considerably since June. Very interesting, will be fascinating to see what UAH brings.
OT
Good news; it seems that we just have “psychological barriers”
to climate change acceptance. We can be healed. I feel as if a
great weight has been lifted.
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/22/20090805/tsc-environment-us-climate-psychology-011ccfa.html
Michael Hauber: “It isn’t CO2, because that only causes about 0.0015 degrees increase each month. Just like the previous short term cooling trend was not Co2, or the failure of Co2 to warm, but something else.”
Really? Care to illustrate where you got that figure of 0.0015 degrees from.
Mary Hinge (01:33:23) : As Kramer said, it’s all about levels…. What is it exactly you are trying to say there Mary Hinge…Data without a cause is nothing more than a James Dean movie. Give us some concrete….concrete is good, it’s strong and stable… Don’t [snip] up the lives of our future people because you have a hobby or something. Parade your wares and sell them and if they are bought then maybe we will listen. If they are Politically bought then maybe we will rebel against the status quo which appears to be nothing more than a fraud.
Reply: I’m tired of snipping profanity or implied profanity. Profanity is a violation of blog rules and in the future entire posts may simply be deleted. ~ charles the moderator
Remember, you all said upper air analysis was and has always been bad data. I used to gather and plot said data and I find your impression of my work to be nothing more than self aggrandizing of yourself. You all live in a world of models but have no proof and we are supposed to take your assumptions as gospel. Sorry, can’t do that.
Weather and Climate naturally changes. How about if we call you non believers of natural climate change “nature deniers” and force society into believing that you are all left wing socialists. Then we can battle political ideologies instead of science…
I am sick of all of this…This is not science, it is job security…..
Flanagan:
Sevilla is the hottest place in Europe: I was there in 1988 and then it was 46 degree C, Sevilla has the European temperature record, 50 degree C. But that was in 1881…, do not visit the inner part of Spain in July and August stay along the coast the difference is 10-15 degree C.
Not all of Southern Europe has been hot, places like Rome, Nice and Lissabon have been colder than normal
The graph indicates two clear periods:
i. 1979 – 1997, which was cooler than the mean.
ii. 1998 to present, which has been warmer than the mean.
The shift was triggered by the strong 1997/98 El Nino.
Any anecdotal indications from further back in history that equally strong La Nina’s can trigger a multidecadal shift in temperature pattern?
Pieter F (21:01:51) :
4x – 2y = z
4z – 4y = x . . . solve . . .
x:y:z≡4:5:6
Sorry- couldn’t resist
I’ve read the jetstream has stayed much closer to the tropics than usual for this time of year, at least in the NH. Would that explain the split between northern and southern parts of North America and Europe, as concerns weather ? Roughly speaking, the northern states of the USA and Canada have been experiencing a “no-summer” situation. In Europe : a “middle country” like France has been split in two : its northern part with usual to miserable summer (like the Bristish Isles), when the southern part has had very high temps (Corsica, at about the same latitude as Barcelona in Spain and Roma in Italy has experienced all time highs). Am I discovering a well known evidence that the jetstream position has prevented tropical heat from spreading towards the poles, thus explaining lousy weather on the one part and at the same time very hot weather on the other part ?
Mr Van Burgel’s post (Aug 5, 18:46) might be telling it’s been the same in the Southern Hemisphere.
Then what makes the jetstreams move in latitude ?
This will be “global warming”. The La Nina last year was….just natural variation….
Moderators. I’ve said it before – the name ‘Mary Hinge’ is a profanity in the UK. It’s a Spoonerism…
Mary Hinge (01:33:23) : and John Phillips (16:30:59) :
There is one set of temperature data I trust and that is UAH and RSS to an extent also. The Satellite temperatures are a more accurate representation of a “global temperature” than than the Hadley or GISS “Land Ocean Global Mean”, for one simple reason, even if the data itself were not suspect, and that is that a mean of air temperatures and sea water temperatures dont make any sense.
The Satellite temperatures cover the whole globe much more uniformly and are some representation of the air temperatures of the various layers of the atmosphere.
July was warm on the whole globally – no question about it – but so what? England was cool and so has New Zealand been, though now, I must say, it is comparatively mild compared to our early winter. Other places have been warm and hot. That proves nothing either way.
The main thing that makes me a sceptic of the AGW hypothesis is that the data does not support their alarmist dangerous warming predictions.
We have been warmer than today during the medieval warm period and probably much of the Holocene. The attempt of Mann, Jones etc to obliterate this evidence is nothing short of shameful. If warming has taken place in our recent past “naturally” without any increase of CO2, there is no reason to assume any other cause for our present warm period, or have any cause for alarm. That I think is the important issue.
If you look at the historical SST records, you can see there were some almighty whacking great el nino events in the late 1800’s as the ocean cooled down towards 1900.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst2gl/detrend/mean:24
We should expect to see the same now, maybe even more pronounced, as the ocean heat content is higher now than at any time since the end of the medieval maximum.
It may well be a record breaker soon, but that is, if correctly understood, a signal that the oceans are in heat release mode. After the el nino settles down, the oceans will be left with less total heat content, and temperatures will then fall to levels below the peak years of the earlier 2000’s.
Enjoy the warmth, keep your cool, and smile when the AGW proponents witter about global warming renewed. In a year or two, it’ll swing the other way.
gtrip (22:21:21) : “Where does the white go when the snow melts?”
Leif Svalgaard (22:50:55) : “A candle works not by providing light, but by sucking up the dark. Proof: the wick gets black.”
Foul!
Neither of you factored in the dead moth.
What is your point, are you ignoring the data because it doesn’t fit your beliefs? We have very interesting data here with significant temperature rise and, despite the throwaway remark about El Nino in the opening paragraph, no ENSO reason for this. The data is consistent with other sources so would seem ‘concrete’. Instead of ignoring it because there doesn’t seem to be any ’cause’ it makes much more sense to find out what is causing this rapid increase in global temperatures.
Brandon Dobson (23:36:08) : “… Food for thought…”
It is a very low-key blog, or forum, but I would welcome the opportunity to publish your work on Stay Warm, World, Brandon (click on my name above to view it). You can send it to me at RogerCarr AT datacodsl.com
Sounds very much along my lines of thinking.
The only real anomaly was the cold June.
2003 and 2006 both saw similar warm-ups of the UAH LT from April to September-November.
2003.4 to 2003.8 — 0.3C (.05 to .35)
2006.4 to 2006.9 — 0.35C (0.0 to 0.35)
2009.4 to 2009.6 — 0.41 C (0.0 to 0.41)
The June drop-out is the only really odd thing… Unless August through November anomalies continue to increase, this is just a regular. run-of-the-mill ENSO.