Hot off the press from Dr. Roy Spencer. After being essentially zero last month, we have a jump to .410°C in July. This was not unexpected, as a El Nino has been developing.
July 2009 Global Temperature Update: +0.41 deg. C
August 5th, 2009
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.304 0.443 0.165 -0.036
2009 2 0.347 0.678 0.016 0.051
2009 3 0.206 0.310 0.103 -0.149
2009 4 0.090 0.124 0.056 -0.014
2009 5 0.045 0.046 0.044 -0.166
2009 6 0.003 0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 0.410 0.211 0.609 0.427
July 2009 experienced a large jump in global average tropospheric temperatures, from +0.00 deg. C in June to +0.41 deg. C in July, with the tropics and southern hemisphere showing the greatest warming.
NOTE: For those who are monitoring the daily progress of global-average temperatures here, we will be switching from NOAA-15 to Aqua AMSU in the next few weeks, which will provide more accurate tracking on a daily basis. We will be including both our lower troposphere (LT) and mid-tropospheric (MT) pre-processing of the data.
Lucia at the Blackboard has an analaysis of RSS, which came in higher this month also, at 0.392°C.
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009/rss-for-july-0392-c-graphs-to-follow/
Maybe the Nino’s peaked?Hmmm?
On the “ups” and “downs”. Lets not forget, that if we started and stopped the measurements in the middle of the month instead of the beginning and end, we might see a different pattern, perhaps more linear and flat.
bluegrue (16:34:46) : “Mike is 2 inches taller than Peter . . .
Hansen’s observed temp anomaly in 1979 is approximately 0.3°C above the 1951-1980 mean he used as a benchmark. His projected temp anomaly for 2009 for scenario A was 1.4°C and 0.8°C for scenario B. The UAH temp anomaly from late 1979 was right at the 1979-1998 benchmark. The anomaly for July 2009 was 0.41° and about 0.19° for the 13 month smoothing.
Therefore, Hansen’s internal projected three decade rise in temperature anomalies from 1979 was 1.1°C or 0.5°C depending on scenario. The change in the UAH anomaly since 1979 was 0.41°C — 20% below Hansen’s ostensibly “remarkably accurate” prediction. However, as pointed out in a previous thread, the UAH data is monthly. So, looking at the running 13 month average, it looks as though UAH comes in noticeably under 0.2°C — 40% of Hansen’s “remarkably accurate” prediction. Sorry, but I don’t count that as accurate, remarkable or otherwise.
4x – 2y = z
4z – 4y = x . . . solve . . .
It is possible to compare two endeavors with variable benchmarks (Hansen 1988 and UAH today) and conclude accurately that Hansen 1988 really wasn’t at all accurate, let alone “remarkably” so.
Roy Spencer (13:51:36) :
actually, ak was right, Leif. It was his comment that caused me to change the trailing average to a centered average.
I guess I must have seen your figure after you changed it…
Several months ago the enthusiasts were all agog over the temp curve falling off a cliff as we were entering a deep solar minimum. Perhaps the recent reversals of the drop is caused by solar cycle 24 [and 25!] kicking in with a vengeance 🙂
So, let’s see… .4 degrees in a month, that means 5 degrees a year, plus its probably exonential…
My model suggests within ten years, the oceans will be boiling!
Can someone look at change in average change in variance vs. time? (2nd order, acceleration) It appears that this temperature chart has gotten a lot more jumpy in both positive and negative directions especially since 2003.
The RSS satellite detailed temp series (UAH details are not posted yet) shows that the southern hemisphere and the tropics were very warm in July. Northern hemisphere was normal. (This has not been the pattern for a long, long time – traditionally, warming has been ocurring in the northern hemisphere and not in the tropics or the southern hemisphere.
My take on it is, from the 30 day CPC anomaly map is, there is some warmth over the ENSO regions and not much warmth showing up in the rest of the tropics yet from the El Nino. For the southern hemisphere, it looks like all the warmth is concentrated over Antarctica. It has probably been the warmest winter Antarctica has experienced – anomalies have been 5C to 10C warmer this winter – probably an atmospheric event of some kind.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/rnl/sfctmpmer_30a.rnl.html
God’s chuckling, I bet.
rbateman (16:00:45) : Here, here!
LOL LEIF!!!! “” kicking in with a vengeance 🙂 “”
any how cooling maybe a very slow process …….
antidote is a torch heating water….. nicely heated….
now how long to cool?
The sun is a very nice torch, and it did not ” turn off”
bye bye see ya!
Gene:
link to ‘wobble’ reference from Richard Lindzen, a radio interview, starting at the 16:00 minute point :
FYI…The Lindzen link is timing out, at least for me.
@Roy Spencer & Anthony et al…
Thanks a lot for this update! It has been useful and I really appreciate it. 🙂
Actually, the current warming will be brief and the global cooling will come back by September-October.
Next year things will be worst, I mean, the change of temperature could reach ~0.8 °C from March-April 2010 and ~0.4 °C from February-October 2011.
Many people think that the Earth is leaving a warmhouse period, when in reality it is leaving an icehouse period and undergoing into a warm period.
The carbon dioxide is not the cause of this… warming; carbon dioxide is a result (actually, it is a victim of AGW psychosis) of this shift which is integrated to a longer cycle. An icehouse has ended and a warmhouse period is in progress. Who will stop it? Hah!
If the big warm anomoly is located in the SH near Antartica then it would seem to be unusual in the sense that this is in a SH winter where incoming solar radiation is at a minimum – and zero across most of the Antartica.
Since the more recent SH anomolies have all been near zero then this raises the question where did the heat come from. This would seem to be heat stored in the pipeline, or major satellite data error ?
I’m sure RC will have a field day with this !
There is one thing about this climate change thing I haven’t seen an answer to and that is: Where does the white go when the snow melts?
Sorry, couldn’t help myself!!!
Mary Hinge writes: “The biggest surprise is where the largest increases in lower atmospheric tempeatures are occuring, in sub Antarctica. This is especially evident from the Antarctic coast to Australia.”
Yet, M.Alex writes: “P”urakanui (12:45:43) :
Must have been warm somewhere else, then, because NZ has been well below average for the third month in a row.”
Not only in New Zealand, but also in South Africa where weather has been cold (except for today, 32 degrees C in my hometown) and snow has fallen.”
So obviously powerful MPHs have blasted cold weather in the southern hemisphere during the onset of austral winter but in the regions under the advection path of the warmer air masses displaced by these MPHs, a resulting rise in temperature has been observed. Perhaps we’d reduce the level of specualtion if the coherent atmospheric circulation understanding developped by the late Marcel Leroux was better known…
gtrip (22:21:21) :
There is one thing about this climate change thing I haven’t seen an answer to and that is: Where does the white go when the snow melts?
Sorry, couldn’t help myself!!!
You need a very smart friend like me. When snow melts, the white thing goes to the gravity field. Prove I’m wrong…. Heh! 😀
gtrip (22:21:21) :
Where does the white go when the snow melts?
A candle works not by providing light, but by sucking up the dark. Proof: the wick gets black. So I’ll suggest [but need funding to conclusively prove it] that your white goes to the same place as my black.
This El Nino aint that strong.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
Hopefully this is close enough on topic.
Regarding Radiative Forcing and this chart: http://www.greenfacts.org/en/climate-change-ar4/images/figure-spm-2-p4.jpg
How much of the ‘Net Anthropogenic’ value is actually observed? Is this a model or actually verifiable?
Sincerely, A grateful amateur who appreciates your input, links and opinion.
I downloaded the SORCE data for TSI. From 1st of July to 29th July the Earth received 38,212.13 W/m^2 of irradiance and for the previous 29 days it was 40,899.10 W/m^2. We received 2,686.97 W/m^2 less and yet the temperature shot up.
This proves the alarmists are right, right? I dont think so.
Let us wait and see (for the next ten years) what the data tells us.
Thank you Dr Roy Spencer and Dr Christie for supplying us honest data.
Thank goodness we have some honest scientists too to counter the hijacking of climate science by a bunch of so called climate scientists who manipulate data to remove all traces of natural climate change and tell outright lies.
Re; Ozzie John (22:20:32)
If you get a big warm anomoly in the SH winter near Antartica does this not indicate outgoing energy, not incoming?
Food for thought…
Professor Richard Linzen, extract from CNS news article ‘Meteorologist Likes Fear of Global warming to ‘Religious Belief’
“Do you believe in global warming? That is a religious question. So is the second part: Are you a skeptic or a believer?” said Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Richard Lindzen, in a speech to about 100 people at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.
JR Dunn, from A Necessary Apocalypse.
“Another item that a pseudo-religion must have is an apocalypse – and that’s what global warming is all about…In fact, the apocalyptic is the major fulcrum of environmentalism, the axis around which everything else turns.”
And here is a quote from Dr. Roy Spencer:
“It is interesting that the modern belief that our carbon emissions have caused the climate system to rebel are not that different from ancient civilizations that made sacrifices to the gods of nature in their attempts to get nature to cooperate. Technology might have changed over time, but it seems human nature has remained the same.”
I’ve found interesting statistical evidence in support of this, but the powers that be have deemed it unprintable. Such is the power of the truth.
Leif Svalgaard (21:08:43) :
Dr. Leif: You’ve pretty much got me convinced about TSI… but this Cycle 25 stuff is a bit unsettling. If Dr. Archibald were to agree with you on this I think I’d just join my cat under the bed and not come out until maybe Cyle 27… U’d love to see you two agree on something, but this isn’t what I had in mind..
A qualitative comment. It is amazing what one upward spike at the very end of a data series can do to the visual impression of an overall trend. Of course, this is also true in terms of the effect of end points on slopes and regressions. You have to admit that the AGW case looks a lot better with that El Nino-induced spike at the end. You can almost visualize a slow warming throughout the dataset (AGW?), with sea surface temperature anomalies and volcanism producing noise through the series.
Until El Nino hit, I was really beginning to wonder whether the recent cooling was just due to oceanic influences, or whether the weak sun and possible amplifying effects might be responsible for a significant portion of the cooling. I know it may sound fickle and simplistic, but the fact that the upward tick extends toward record territory in the midst of the solar lull makes me feel a lot more comfortable with some of the comments I have made in my work with regard to potential responses to future warming. Nevertheless, I still wonder whether this might be an upward El Nino-induced tick within a new downward trend, so I will continue to avoid such prophetic statements until I am comfortable with them again.
I have read and, to a limited extent, participated in the science, but I remain uncertain. My hunch is that CO2 does cause warming, but less than many of the models indicate because of cherry-picking of parameters, that solar effects are also significant enough for inclusion, and that land-use change is a very important influence that has received too little attention. These remain hunches! Anyone who says they know for sure that it is all natural, or that the long-term trend is all anthropogenic borders on the religious.
Bill Illis (21:26:21) :
“The RSS satellite detailed temp series (UAH details are not posted yet) shows that the southern hemisphere and the tropics were very warm in July.”
So, if the tropics are so warm, where -o- where are all of the tropical storms? Tropical activity has been well below normal in both the Atlantic and Pacific. This has been one of the most weirdest summers that I can ever remember in my 40+ years of following the weather.