Hot off the press from Dr. Roy Spencer. After being essentially zero last month, we have a jump to .410°C in July. This was not unexpected, as a El Nino has been developing.
July 2009 Global Temperature Update: +0.41 deg. C
August 5th, 2009
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.304 0.443 0.165 -0.036
2009 2 0.347 0.678 0.016 0.051
2009 3 0.206 0.310 0.103 -0.149
2009 4 0.090 0.124 0.056 -0.014
2009 5 0.045 0.046 0.044 -0.166
2009 6 0.003 0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 0.410 0.211 0.609 0.427
July 2009 experienced a large jump in global average tropospheric temperatures, from +0.00 deg. C in June to +0.41 deg. C in July, with the tropics and southern hemisphere showing the greatest warming.
NOTE: For those who are monitoring the daily progress of global-average temperatures here, we will be switching from NOAA-15 to Aqua AMSU in the next few weeks, which will provide more accurate tracking on a daily basis. We will be including both our lower troposphere (LT) and mid-tropospheric (MT) pre-processing of the data.
Lucia at the Blackboard has an analaysis of RSS, which came in higher this month also, at 0.392°C.
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009/rss-for-july-0392-c-graphs-to-follow/
Amir Hawk (16:51:03) : You wrote:
“I think the earth is warming up. It had been doing so for about 200 years and may continue to do so.”
I’ll fix this for you:
I think the earth is warming up. It had been doing so for about 17,000 years and may continue to do so.
Why should it not? What’s changed?
It´s a BABY HOCKEY STICK growing up!
Coldest July on record across Midwest (except Cleveland)
http://blog.cleveland.com/metro/2009/08/coldest_july_on_record_through.html
Who/what are we supposed to believe? 😉
Andrew
It’s not just because it was not hot in your hometown that it was not hot somewhere else, many areas of the world had above average temperatures, south Texas had some incredible records and it was totally ignored by the media (like the Mc Allen unprecedent hellish heat, check Brownsville NWS to see a study about it), south america also had hot areas like the southeast and central Brazil, southern Europe, northwestern US/Western Canada/Alaska, i’m not an warmist but some people will always deny every data that does not show cooling, what happended this july is that areas where the media is stronger got colder, so the rest is ignored, like the all time record monthly average in San Antonio, Austin, McAllen.
Frank Mosher (17:06:45) : The much publicized El Nino, so far, has not developed at the speed the “models” anticipated
It is too much cold, here in front of el Nino 1+2 area, for an el nino. I will tell you what this Nino is: It is but red ink-jet, to cheat all those who live far from the south pacific. It is a big lie this time.
Do satellites measure just highs or do they measure lows? There have been many more record lows (day and night) with some record highs. When oceans are neutral or cool I think extremes are more likely. The July temp may be showing hotter days but the nights may have been cooler?
Someone once asked J.P. Morgan what the stock market would do. He is said to have replied, “It will fluctuate.”
[snip]
Reply: Let’s not go there m’kay? charles the moderator
Amir Hawk (16:51:03) :
Very well put – to be a skeptic should mean that you are looking for real answers outside politics – a true scientist. This is just more data to stew in to that search.
As an aside, if you listen to Joe Bastardi @ur momisugly Accuwx, he is firmly in the camp that this el nino event will be fading by the end of the year. Accuwx has been spot on 6 months out for quite awhile ( as far as I can tell, they were the 1st ones calling for this el nino development – back in January). If they are right on the next call for a fading el nino by year’s end, look for monthly temps to fall from this months level, regardless of if this month’s anomaly is related to the el nino or not
And answering to some questions, why most people came here to say that july was cooler, because this site more popular among skeptcis, that are inclined to comment here only when their hometown had cooler than average temperatures, so cold waves will always have much more attention among comments here (as heatwaves in alarmist sites), i think the satellite measurement is the most reliable we have right now (through not perfect, obviously), i agree that the surface stations summary is biased for warmer anomalies, but not the satellite one. I don’t believe in global warming alarmism, there will always be above or below average temperatures somewhere.
Roy Spencer (16:48:33) : Since June surface temperatures were so high, the July warming of the troposphere might just be reflecting that temporary increase in heat transfer.
Is this a ‘wobble’ in the climate that Richard Lindzen talks about”?
—–
link to ‘wobble’ reference from Richard Lindzen, a radio interview, starting at the 16:00 minute point :
http://wrko.everyzing.com/m/audio/24111309/richard-lindzen-global-warming-denier.htm?q=%22United+States%22&seek=394.089
Michael Hauber (16:11:52) :
so the current ramp up could be due to the developing el nino
Believe me, there is no el nino at all. Ask anybody living around the south pacific. Check fish catches also.
Greg (17:35:28) :
I live in Ca. Been here since the 50’s. All my relations live across the state.
And relations in Washington State.
We had a heat wave, nothing that special to tip global balances, and before that and after that it has been very cool.
Not in my state was there global scale-tipping heat.
I’ll let Texas speak for themselves.
Anecdotal evidence of local cool temperatures is entirely compatible with high global temps. The entire North American landmass covers less than 5% of the Earth’s surface. Everywhere in the USA could be well below average and barely impact globally averaged temps if positive anomaly is widespread in SH and tropics.
Australia’s anomaly for July was +0.78 (from BoM).
New Zealand’s anomaly for July was -0.4 (from NIWA).
I am one who does not believe in Man being the main driver of climate change, nevertheless, we need to be consistent in our acceptance or rejection of any or all of the 4 major global temperature indices. Just because UAH showed a large jump in global temperatures, does not mean we should now be hypocrites and reject the UAH anomaly which we embraced last month. Temperatures have and will fluctuate and one month does not a trend make. What I find disturbing is that now the AGW’ers and the media will cite July’s temperature as proof that the warming trend has resumed, accelerated, and is “worse than scientists feared,” especially when the NASA GISS numbers are released since they are almost guaranteed to show an even greater increase in global temperatures. Ugh!!!
This warming was expected by me due to the Super Galactic Cosmic Ray event that caused the Sudden Stratosphere Warming in the period January 27-29, 2009. The 15 degree C rise in the lower Stratosphere caused the air molecules to expand which allowed more of the cosmic rays to pass through untouched to the Troposphere where collisions devolved into mesons thence into muons, releasing energy in the process. The increased energy resulted in strong winds in the Arctic region that pushed cold air to the south, causing an unusually cold winter in the Northeast and parts of Europe. By accident the muons were measured in an underground iron mine in Minnesota at the time of the occurrence. There is supposed to be a muon measurement record for the past 50 years but I have been unable to locate it. With the muon measurement data, it should be fairly easy to correlate times with actual weather measurements to gain further insight into causation and impact of SSWs.
I was not expecting this much of a delay nor such a widespread influence on the weather. Since UAH includes 15% of the Stratosphere in their Troposphere temperature measurement I was expecting to see the anomaly rise early on, instead of the continuation of the drop in the anomaly.
There are two flies in my analysis. Firstly, the temperature chart of the Stratosphere shows an average of about 10C rise in January – March for the 30 year anomaly reference period, so something similar to what we are experiencing currently should be seen fairly frequently. I have not seen the raw data so perhaps there are some large numbers mixed with smaller numbers to create the average reference temperature. The January 27 – 29 event was a “Super” galactic cosmic ray event. Analysis of the raw Stratosphere temperature data is required to better understand the magnitude and frequency of a “Super” versus the “Normal” SSW that happens every couple of years. The ice in the Arctic is piled up by high winds and sometimes blown out of the Arctic basin by strong winds, so perhaps these winds are influenced to some extent by SSWs, both normal and super.
The second fly in my analysis is that increases in wind velocity and change in wind direction from the Arctic should be easily observable and measureable. It seems to me that a tie between winds and muons should have been made by now.
I haven’t studied how the changes in wind direction due to SSWs would be reflected in the Antarctic. My gut tells me that the 15C rise caused by the January 27 – 29 event should have been reflected in the UAH data before reaching Antarctica.
Anyway some food for thought.
Well, Seattle had the warmest july on record (the record keeping month is an august), i don’t think a short heat wave in the end of the month would be enough for this, the month was already warm before the heatwave (but just slightly) and in the end got really hot combining for the record, for example the previous record at Sea Tac was 100ºF in 1994 (broken 103ºF), in another city station (Sandpoint Weather Forecast Office, northeast Seattle, kept by NWS) the record was also from the 1994 heat wave but only 96ºF (and this july topped 105ºF), even for a 25-year-old station breaking the previous record by 9ºF is amazing, but NOT all of Washington state was like this, coastal and inland Washington did NOT have all-time record breaking heat, similarly in Texas, record breaking in some areas (mainly south-central) and slightly warm to normal in other areas like Dallas. If we consider only the United States i believe most of it (with notable exceptions) was BELOW NORMAL last july as the number of cool weather records was clearly higher than the hot ones, but the anomaly is for the WORLD, and maybe most parts of the world were warmer than normal, i see no reason to doubt this so far, as the satellite data seems to be the best we have.
Charles,
“There” is here:
http://www.climatedepot.com/a/2199/Aussie-Geologist-says-global-warming-is-new-religion-of-First-World-urban-elites
Mary Hinge (15:21:51)
My guess is that this transient warming is caused by the general tendency toward global cooling and the bulk of the cooling is in the pipeline and will roar back with a vengeance very shortly.
rbateman (17:20:28) “: So Roy, where were the “hot spots” that made this 0.4C jump?”
I made a similar complaint earlier, if not quite as clear, but the fact is that the lower troposphere is not the surface. If both measurements were in agreement we wouldn’t need to measure both and could save lots of money. I’d like to vent about poor satellite maintenance or conspiracies ramping up to Copenhagen, but I rather suspect Dr. Spencer would be among the first to sound the alarm if there were any indication his satellite data was being tampered with. The data simply is what it is. Transparency is required all around. A really good post would be a series of discussions on how satellite data is collected, disseminated and analyzed. Frankly, I don’t know if UAH is drawing its data directly from the satellite, if someone else’s algorithms are running the calibrations and verifications…. But we can’t sit here and cheer when the anomaly goes down and cry foul when it goes up.
Free the data, free the code, free the debate.
In southern New Hampshire we are at long last getting some true summer weather. I cannot describe how depressing the weather was until the end of July. My corn is now ripening, though stunted. The hybrid super-sweet variety is not really all that sweet, this year. I hope the more ordinary varieties, which ripen later, will be sweeter. The tomatoes have a lot of catching-up to do. This has been the coldest summer since the Post-Pinatubo summer, in these parts.
I was fairly surprised when the UAH temps went down last month, due to the warming I could see in maps of Pacific Surface Temps. I am less surprised temps rebounded in July, though the magnitude of the jump does surprise me.
To be quite honest, I am happy to see any sign of warming. Cold weather is truly a hardship, this far north. People fleeing Massachusetts taxes have no idea how rough it can be, even only sixty miles north of Boston. The Indians around pre-Boston grew corn and beans and squash, in the early 1600’s, (little Ice Age,) but not far to the north growing corn wasn’t feasible, and the tribes hunted and gathered wild nuts and cattail root. I don’t want to see any return to those conditions. To cold to grow corn is just plain too cold, in my book.
Some people hope for cold because it will derail Cap-and-Trade and other nonsense. However please don’t pray for cold. Cap-and-Trade can be defeated by people becoming politically active, and going through the Bill with a fine toothed comb, and exposing all the happy horse manure. Please take that route, and avoid imploring the Almighty to freeze us poor folk up here.
TJA (15:06:01) :
I don’t know about trying to read the goat’s entrails month by month. I think we ought to wait a little and see what happens. It still resembles something of a random walk to me. It has definitely gotten warmer around here. Summer showed up a couple weeks ago and it has been delightful.
Sounds like you may be in Southern New England. With the exception of that damn “microburst” that nearly got me last Friday, it has been great here…. of course it was damn miserable and chilly for most of July…. I hope this is not a case of “I hope you enjoy your last meal…..”
rephelan (19:27:42) :
I hope this is not a case of “I hope you enjoy your last meal…..”
Which, of course, beats by a long measure the Iranian practice: “the court sentenced you to death. They sentenced me to be your husband.”
re: Texas speaking for ourselves: Not so much [heat] in ‘these here parts’. We JUST had another cool evening thanks to a thunderstorm complex that moved out of Oklahoma and across the Red River into the DFW (Dallas/Ft. Worth) NC Texas area.
That ‘cool’ wx-is-not-climate low-temperature statistic will have to be balanced against another 100 degree (high temperature) day though, as measured out at the airport (and DFW A/P is Texas-sized to boot).
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Amir Hawk (16:51:03) :
You are beginning to sound like a Lukewarmer…