Hot off the press from Dr. Roy Spencer. After being essentially zero last month, we have a jump to .410°C in July. This was not unexpected, as a El Nino has been developing.
July 2009 Global Temperature Update: +0.41 deg. C
August 5th, 2009
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.304 0.443 0.165 -0.036
2009 2 0.347 0.678 0.016 0.051
2009 3 0.206 0.310 0.103 -0.149
2009 4 0.090 0.124 0.056 -0.014
2009 5 0.045 0.046 0.044 -0.166
2009 6 0.003 0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 0.410 0.211 0.609 0.427
July 2009 experienced a large jump in global average tropospheric temperatures, from +0.00 deg. C in June to +0.41 deg. C in July, with the tropics and southern hemisphere showing the greatest warming.
NOTE: For those who are monitoring the daily progress of global-average temperatures here, we will be switching from NOAA-15 to Aqua AMSU in the next few weeks, which will provide more accurate tracking on a daily basis. We will be including both our lower troposphere (LT) and mid-tropospheric (MT) pre-processing of the data.
Lucia at the Blackboard has an analaysis of RSS, which came in higher this month also, at 0.392°C.
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009/rss-for-july-0392-c-graphs-to-follow/
Climate Heretic (14:40:14) :
Always interesting raising your own lepidopterans, nature at her glorious best!
I take on board what you are saying and I hope I can show you that the weather is the driver for these mass migrations. I will do this explanation in two posts as there are 4 links and I don’t want to fall victim to the spam filter.
The first part is the cooler weather and higher rainfall over North Africa and Southern Europe at the begining of the year. The following links show temperature and precipitation anomolies from December to February. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2009/feb/map-land-sfc-mntp-200812-200902-pg.gif
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2009/feb/map-prcp-200812-200902-pg.gif.
The extra rainfall produces an increase in the available foodplants and the initial population explosion reported. Next post:-
Second post-
Now we move to later in the year, following are the temperature anomolies and precipitation anomolies from March May inc. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2009/may/map-land-sfc-mntp-200903-200905-pg.gif
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2009/may/map-prcp-200903-200905-pg.gif
These show clearly the higher temperatures and lower precipitation in Western Europe.
As I stated in an earlier post there are always more than one reason for migration events such as this years and it is only when they all come together that events occur.
As I noted above, the behavioural change in these butterflies is quite remarkable. They fly in a much more purposeful manner stopping only briefly to drink nectar for a few seconds before flying on. I assume the North American Painted Ladies have the same behaviour when conditions force them to migrate en masse. During this phase they can fly over 1,000 miles, before they start laying eggs. The subsequent generation has the gentle flying behaviour we all know and love!
The three highest monthly temperature spikes in the whole of the UAH data series are 0.293, 0.292, 0.286, the three lowest dips are -0.277, -0.281, -0.281, and now we get a spike of 0.407… seems anomalous to me … unprecedented in the whole of the UAH data series
This enormous jump between last June and July seems to be ‘unprecedented’ in the UAH MSU record. However, the daily Ch5 anomaly is dropping at the moment, it is almost certain that August will be significantly colder.
See: http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+002
ChLT and Ch6 (900 and 400Mb levels) are also going down.
Concerning UAH’s intention to change its daily data base from to Aqua AMSU in the next few weeks, I understand the motivation to do that, but I am curious on how they will maintain a consistent data base at http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/. That website currently presents raw data from a drifting satellite that subsequently reads high. When UAH changes to Aqua AMSU, current daily data will be quite accurate, but will the historical data on the website continue to be the biased-high NOAA-15 data?
If you site hasn’t developed a problem, my computer just decided to go crazy.