Hot off the press from Dr. Roy Spencer. After being essentially zero last month, we have a jump to .410°C in July. This was not unexpected, as a El Nino has been developing.
July 2009 Global Temperature Update: +0.41 deg. C
August 5th, 2009
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.304 0.443 0.165 -0.036
2009 2 0.347 0.678 0.016 0.051
2009 3 0.206 0.310 0.103 -0.149
2009 4 0.090 0.124 0.056 -0.014
2009 5 0.045 0.046 0.044 -0.166
2009 6 0.003 0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 0.410 0.211 0.609 0.427
July 2009 experienced a large jump in global average tropospheric temperatures, from +0.00 deg. C in June to +0.41 deg. C in July, with the tropics and southern hemisphere showing the greatest warming.
NOTE: For those who are monitoring the daily progress of global-average temperatures here, we will be switching from NOAA-15 to Aqua AMSU in the next few weeks, which will provide more accurate tracking on a daily basis. We will be including both our lower troposphere (LT) and mid-tropospheric (MT) pre-processing of the data.
Lucia at the Blackboard has an analaysis of RSS, which came in higher this month also, at 0.392°C.
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009/rss-for-july-0392-c-graphs-to-follow/
Gary Hladik (14:40:53) :
bill (10:04:36) : “So you are going to warm/cool your crops with nuclear power. Thats a new one on me!”
“”Nuclear-powered greenhouses?””
Or… how about man-made fibres, or plastics, or a myriad of other oil based products, from wind or solar power?
Do you mean midge or minge? A midge is a great fishing fly and it would be well worth your time to try and tie one.
Okay, I just googled minge. Disregard the fishing comment above.
Paul R (19:40:26) :
“It is a biting fly pertaining to the family Ceratopogonidae. The most common in your area is Culicoides impunctatus… Anyway, don’t call your daughter “Minge” because other bad meanings are in use.”
Is it true this fly is unheard of in Brazil?
I don’t know. Culicoides brevitarsis K. is a cosmopolitan species. Hence I could deduce that the species inhabits Brazil.
How come they never have fun over at Joe’s place?
Hi here in Christchurch N ew Zealand Jule air temps were much colder than norm.The day air temp was -1.71c of a.v.g the night time a.v.g was -1.19c on a.v.g. And it was a very sunny month and very dry.hey those places that are getting the hot temps has their been less wind than normal their?.
Phoenix, AZ…With all things being equal, why are our temperature 6 degrees less tonight than they were last night at the same time??? I was very surprised by the lack of UHI going on…minimal radiation from the asphalt tonight. When do we finally get to have science start working again?
A blog writer writing in Spanish has said that the heatwave in Spain and Mediterranean countries is the exact opposite of what the IPCC predicted.
When I did environmental studies in the 1980s, when the theory was that the world was going into a new Ice Age because of extreme climate around the world, the tutors said that blocking anticyclones would happen when the climate cooled. It seems to me that that is what is happening now, with the droughts in China, Argentina that are affecting crops.
The other thing that is happening is that there have been outbreaks of plague in various parts of the world as shown at the Healthmap website. The bacteria that causes bubonic, pneumonic and septicemic plague requires low temperatures in order to cause the plague. There have been recent very low temperatures in Tibet.
It sure was not warmer in freezing London in July, nor in freezing eastern North America.
It will be interesting to see if anything different is really happening here.
At first inspection, the global average LT temperature is just bouncing around, as usual. The range if the variation is about 1 degree C, and within this we can possibly see a step-warming of 0.2C after year ~2000. Neither the bounce nor the step-increase can be attributed to increased humanmade CO2, with any confidence.
“3 day life span….for the Painted Lady….are you sure about that? Lets go through it shall we: Female imago lays egg: egg takes (depending on weather) approx 2-4 days to hatch; larvae hatch and start eating immediately. time taken to reach pupa stage 4-6 weeks (depending on weather). Pupal stage, usually in this stage for 7-14 days, finally the adult emerges.
From egg to adult there is a minimum of 36 days in southern areas. This would be nearer two months in cooler areas ( these times are for spring/summer broods and not overwintering).
If there wasn’t the hot and dry weather in Spain/Southern France there would not be the number of butterflies arriving, they don’t migrate for fun. There are usually a good number that reach our shores each summer but this year was extraordinary in numbers and butterfly behaviour. I first noted these butterflies arriving on the 1st June (by the way I don’t live in the UK, but your welcome to come here and tell a few locals here that they do…would be interesting!) The behaviour was very unusual, they had a very strong flight and very quick,( I drove after them to get an idea of speed, they were flying at around 10mph). The next generation of Painted Ladies have recently emerged and have the usual ‘flitting’ behaviour.
The facts of this particular migration are clear, there was a large number initially from the Atlas Mountains. Early spring is a good time for the foodplants to grow in Southern Europe so there would be plenty of food for them (as well as the hymenopteran parasites..but that’s a different though not unconnected story). The late spring and summer have been particularly dry and hot this summer resulting in a loss of food plants. This coupled with the large initial population resulted in particularly large numbers of butterflies to the British Isles and Ireland.
It is all connected, you can put as much saltpetre and carbon together but without the sulphur you get no bang!
I suspect that GISS and HadCrut will come in at 0.715 and 0.646 respectively.
Mary Hinge writes:
“The facts of this particular migration are clear, there was a large number initially from the Atlas Mountains.”
Wasn’t the initial cause of the breeding success of the Painted Lady butterflies due to wetter weather than usual in Morocco?
The Atlas Mountains are in Morocco.
M. ‘inge is the British equivalent to the American Mike Hunt, and (sorry) I find Kum Dollison amusing, too. Should these be the real names of those people, I will readily admit that I am the one who is a bit repressed. Having said that: Skiing-racer Joos Minsch once had a great fall on the Lauberhorn, just below the Hundschopf, so that place is now called the Minsch-edge. And (funny to Japanese) the Swiss also have a DJ Bobo (same thing).
I thought clouds were a positive feedback (LOL)…if so, why would they propose this? *snicker* Dr. Roy suggests (rightfully and logically as far as I can tell) that clouds are a negative feedback, cooling the atmosphere. I guess the AGW proponents are having a hard time keeping their story straight….
‘Cloud ship’ scheme to deflect the sun’s rays is favourite to cut global warming
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/5987229/Cloud-ship-scheme-to-deflect-the-suns-rays-is-favourite-to-cut-global-warming.html
lol *sorry* I couldn’t resist
Betty
Stop with the pig latin already. It’s giving me a headache.
“Runny Babbit A Billy Sook” by Shel Silverstein.
A very funny book to read out loud on a Sunday morning in bed with hot coffee laced with generous amounts O’Irish Cream. The more coffee you drink, and the more you read the verse, the funnier it gets.
Pamela Gray (09:21:42) :
“Runny Babbit A Billy Sook” by Shel Silverstein.
Thanks for this Pamela – I’ll have to get a copy. (I seem to have started this nonsense here – thanks to Mary!)
From Wikipedia: “Other than speaking only in spoonerisms, Runny is a normal child. He has many friends, and two loving parents, his “dummy and mad,” who often remind him to “shake a tower” and other chores.”
Phil. (16:53:09) : …although it might be warmer in the summer the day length variation means that the growing season will be shorter hence the short season requirement. The day length variation is towards longer days in the summer as one goes north, and more growing time even though the ‘season’ is shorter.
Whatever happened to all the alarmist predictions of global cooling after two years of relatively low solar activity?
WHAT’s up with this? Can anybody still get the monthly temp anomaly? I’m hunting around for July and it looks unavailable until further notice (maybe their spin art machine is broken):
U.S. Climate Monitoring Weekly Products
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center
• Map Selection Menu
• Background
• Differences between these data and official monthly averages
• Weekly Mean Temperature Data
(unavailable until further notice)
• Month-To-Date Temperature Anomaly Data
(unavailable until further notice)
• Contacts
Please help, T.
Dennis, the same people on this blog usually post the “sky is falling” thought many times about a quiet Sun and global cooling. There is no consensus about the correlation or lack thereof of the Solar/Earth temperature connections among the general participants (frequent flyers or just once or twice a month visitors). That said, I understand your comment.
Mary,
This topic is interesting and I was forced to look up information as I was running off my Biology lessons – the lifespan I used was based on full caterpillars to end of life, we raised them as an experiment and they arrived as caterpillars,so I stand corrected on the following..
Life Cycle is 3(egg) + (14/21)(larval) + 6(pupa)+ 14(adult) = 37/44 Days as you point out BUT even with that correction it does not invalidate my point. It does not even change Generation Count.
Let me re-explain to you the issue…
1) Warmer weather does DECREASE life span (mature quicker)
2) The Butterflies arrive all season because of staggered generations.
3) Based on Timing (May 27th and June 1st are not that far apart) so Counting First Flight on Feb 14th as Generation 1 and moving through time (108 Days), they would be on Generation 4 to arrive with enough time to lay eggs.
4) The butterflies are not outside of their native range nor are they outside of their arrival window, they are just in greater numbers based on POPULATION at the start of the migration.
5) If temperature was pushing them North as you claim then just based on Generations and Time they would have died off to normal levels or arrived earlier, and if temperatures were up they would have required more generations and hence more food because warmer weather reduces lifespan putting even more downward pressure on total population.
6) Migrations are not just based on food supply, habitat ranges are, and there is not any indication of Northward habitat relocation or changes in Migration Pattern.
I am not sure what you were trying to say about living in the UK and what residents there would say about what, so I will not address it.
Then Finally I did not see any prolonged temperature anomaly along the route that would contribute to migratory pressures this season, if you have that data I would be interested in it.
Or over Melbourne Australia.