Hot off the press from Dr. Roy Spencer. After being essentially zero last month, we have a jump to .410°C in July. This was not unexpected, as a El Nino has been developing.
July 2009 Global Temperature Update: +0.41 deg. C
August 5th, 2009
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.304 0.443 0.165 -0.036
2009 2 0.347 0.678 0.016 0.051
2009 3 0.206 0.310 0.103 -0.149
2009 4 0.090 0.124 0.056 -0.014
2009 5 0.045 0.046 0.044 -0.166
2009 6 0.003 0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 0.410 0.211 0.609 0.427
July 2009 experienced a large jump in global average tropospheric temperatures, from +0.00 deg. C in June to +0.41 deg. C in July, with the tropics and southern hemisphere showing the greatest warming.
NOTE: For those who are monitoring the daily progress of global-average temperatures here, we will be switching from NOAA-15 to Aqua AMSU in the next few weeks, which will provide more accurate tracking on a daily basis. We will be including both our lower troposphere (LT) and mid-tropospheric (MT) pre-processing of the data.
Lucia at the Blackboard has an analaysis of RSS, which came in higher this month also, at 0.392°C.
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009/rss-for-july-0392-c-graphs-to-follow/
Hate to appear a dodo, but what, pray tell, is a “minge”?
David Appell, how can YOU attribute warming to Co2 when the Co2 is increasing, yet the global temperatures have , at the very least, leveled off? I wish I could tell you what the driver(s) of climate are, but it sure isn’t Co2. I think you are just riding Anthony’s coattails to gain some recognition for yourself. BTW, how are the ratings going for SA lately? Can you explain the drop in readership? Perhaps it is due to advocacy? Perhaps Mr. Mann can work on the ratings graph for you. That should help.
bill (10:04:36) : “So you are going to warm/cool your crops with nuclear power. Thats a new one on me!”
Nuclear-powered greenhouses?
Interesting analysis on how satellite data is ‘smoothed’.
http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/9852
Tonyb
Tim, in general hard wheat is more resistant to stress of any kind. Spring hard varieties are not as frost hardy as winter varieties. While soft varieties produce a softer flour, hard wheat has more protein, makes a good stout bread, and is just better for you. If it is weather I am worried about, hard winter red is the best choice. Most of the wheat still in the fields right now is probably spring wheat. Winter wheat sprouts earlier, withstands frost, and can be harvested earlier because it sprouts earlier. You just don’t get the premium price. I think some of the younger farmers have been under the impression that summers would be long and warm. Wonder where they got that idea from.
I noticed that Pendleton farmers planted wheat instead of corn but only some of it was harvested before the rains came. They planted lots of peas. No one that I know of planted any watermelon, cantelope, or pumpkins in a field bigger than a large garden. Remember when Hermiston Watermelons were all the rage? You would be hard pressed to find a field of them this year.
Of interest to some, Universities that have agricultural departments void of “coolaid” drinking fountains have been working on developing cold-tolerant short season cash crops. Now who told them Earth was going to cool?
Jeff Alberts (09:47:04)
“…..My take is that the concept of a “global average or mean temperature” is a meaningless concept. If some places cool, some remain relatively static, and some warm, then there is clearly nothing “global” occurring, just lots of little regional things which aren’t connected.”
Totally agree, temperature is a local phenomenon and says little about what’s going on in any particular micro-clmate. Heat content change would be a more meaningful measure, but much more diffcult to obtain.
Surprized that July shows so much heating in the Antarctic, perhaps the quiet sun has damped down the upper atmosphere heat transport at this pole, allowing the temperature to rise?
I would love to be able to grow something on land that is in CRP (government program designed to control prices). But I can’t charge what it costs to produce and make a reasonable profit. If we didn’t have price controls on food basics, the price I charge for my produce would go up and down depending on the price of oil, implements, etc for the year I use these items (like it does with many other products). I wish price controls and subsidies would go away. But many decades ago, the government thought the people would be happier with stable food prices. So I am stuck with the hand I am dealt. Any farmer these days would be asking for bankruptcy to take land out of conservation programs and grow something on it. He/she would not be allowed to break even and the farmer’s land would be up for sale tomorrow.
HOWEVER, there is a silver lining to every cloudy, rainy day. I have lots and lots of non-irrigated pasture and grazing land and have it rented out to about 100 + units (cow/calf) spread around to the various areas. This rain is just what I needed to keep things rented till the middle/end of November when heavy frosts and snow forces the cattle down to the valley to feedlots for the winter. This is good for the cattle owner and good for me.
David Appell, this may not be communicated clearly, but El Nino and La Nina conditions and events, and any other oceanic alphabet index we follow aren’t based on a series of on/off switches. Neutral positions are just as much of a weather pattern driver as the extremes. All levels of oceanic conditions, from warm to cool and in-between, drive weather pattern variations over land. The global temperature is sourced from the oceans, plain and simple. The storm we are having in the western half of the US came to us courtesy of the Pacific Ocean. Gee thanks.
L (14:11:40) :
Hate to appear a dodo, but what, pray tell, is a “minge”?
google it…
Jim (09:29:29) :
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Phil. (07:03:47) :
Roy Spencer (16:48:33) :
Large month-to-month changes in tropospheric temperature are likely to be dominated by non-radiative transfers of heat, that is, changes in the rate at which convection transfers heat from the surface to the atmosphere.
Surface to atmosphere transfer will still be dominated by long wave radiation, distribution within the troposphere will be dominated by convection.
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Hey Phil. What % heat is transferred via radiation vs. convection – IYO.
From the surface on average ~80% by radiation
From the TOA to space 100% by radiation
Leif Svalgaard (16:07:56) :
L (14:11:40) :
Hate to appear a dodo, but what, pray tell, is a “minge”?
google it…
If it helps a hairy one is a tautology!
Pamela Gray (15:28:18) :
Of interest to some, Universities that have agricultural departments void of “coolaid” drinking fountains have been working on developing cold-tolerant short season cash crops. Now who told them Earth was going to cool?
No one, they were told it was going to get warmer so that you could plant certain crops further north, trouble is although it might be warmer in the summer the day length variation means that the growing season will be shorter hence the short season requirement.
Dont make a big deal about something that aint.This is NOT significant by my standards especially in a eL nIN O AND I BET THE FARM THAT TEMPS WILL DROP BACK DESPITE THE EL NINO NOW SWHUT 8UP ABOUT “GLOBAL TREMPS UP SIGNIFICANTELY IN JULY” NOTHING COMPARED TO JUST A FEW YEARS AGL RETARD
Dont make a big deal about something that aint.This is NOT significant by my standards especially in a eL nIN O AND I BET THE FARM THAT TEMPS WILL DROP BACK DESPITE THE EL NINO NOW SHUT UP ABOUT “GLOBAL TEMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY IN JULY” NOTHING COMPARED TO JUST A FEW YEARS AGO RETARDS
AND THIS IS ONLY RAW DATA ALSO
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Phil. (16:24:23) :
Hey Phil. What % heat is transferred via radiation vs. convection – IYO.
From the surface on average ~80% by radiation
From the TOA to space 100% by radiation
***************
What % of total incoming energy is reflected back into space from clouds over the course of a typical year – lets say just for specificity an average of the last 30 years. Or if you have knowledge of some other time frame, go with that.
The July UAH increase was the biggest monthly change in the entire UAH record (in terms of the increase and in absolute terms).
The next closest global monthly change was 0.293C so this last month at +0.410C has to be considered very unusual.
The southern hemisphere change at +0.634C is nearly double the previous record (I have the southern hemisphere records going back to 1850 and the southern hemisphere over the longer record is known for having very wild swings and is very unlike the more normal temp record for the northern hemisphere).
The change in the Tropics in July 2009 at +0.430C is the second largest ever and the biggest one was (maybe expected), July 1997 – just as the Super El Nino was really taking off – +1.85C anomaly in Nino 3.4 in 1997 versus +0.88C this year. The July 1997 temp increase still followed the normal 3 month lag that the ENSO produces so after July 1997, temps still skyrocketed higher and did not peak until Feb, 1998 – 3 months after the peak of the El Nino. [I don’t see this El Nino continuing to increase for another 6 months to the records of the 1997-98 El Nino].
So overall, something really strange happened in July and it is tied into the record warm (not -65C any longer) temps that Antarctica is experiencing.
L (14:11:40) :
Hate to appear a dodo, but what, pray tell, is a “minge”?
It is a biting fly pertaining to the family Ceratopogonidae. The most common in your area is Culicoides impunctatus… Anyway, don’t call your daughter “Minge” because other bad meanings are in use.
Phil. (16:42:06) :
Leif Svalgaard (16:07:56) :
L (14:11:40) :
Hate to appear a dodo, but what, pray tell, is a “minge”?
google it…
If it helps a hairy one is a tautology!
And do not – repeat – DO NOT!!! – go into a bar and ask any lady how her’s is.
(I saw a guy do that in Glasgow once…)
Phil (16:53:09) No one, they were told it was going to get warmer so that you could plant certain crops further north, trouble is although it might be warmer in the summer the day length variation means that the growing season will be shorter hence the short season requirement. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Take your thermageddon colored glasses off. Intelligent people prepare for BOTH warming AND cooling, as the planet can do EITHER.
Moderators. Mary has a friend – Betty. Betty Swollocks. She may drop in for a conversation.
An English horse trainer had a couple of horses a few years ago – guess what their names were?
It is a biting fly pertaining to the family Ceratopogonidae. The most common in your area is Culicoides impunctatus… Anyway, don’t call your daughter “Minge” because other bad meanings are in use.
Is it true this fly is unheard of in Brazil ?
Jimmy Haigh (19:31:31) :
Moderators. Mary has a friend – Betty. Betty Swollocks. She may drop in for a conversation.
Actually, Mary and Betty were Rindercella’s sisters.
Paul R (19:40:26) :
Is it true this fly is unheard of in Brazil ?
Now THAT is funny!!!!!!!!!!!
I haven’t been to Brazil but a friend of mine says that “this fly” is almost unheard of. I did spend some time in Venezuela – “this fly” is not too common there and often very thin.