This makes a lot of sense if you are a rational thinking person. I thought I’d alert WUWT readers to it. Below is a table from the front page of Spaceweather.com today, operated by NOAA and Dr. Tony Phillips.
And this week, we saw what can happen when PHA’s come calling:
So in light of that, I thought this article was rather interesting.
Death from the Skies = Boring, Sweat from GHGs = Sexy [Jonah Goldberg]
Published at The Corner, part of NRO
From a longtime reader:
Dear Jonah,
I thoroughly enjoyed your article today, and not just because you touched on an area where I worked – at least tangentially – for over a decade. You are right, virtually nobody is doing the leg work on keeping track of all the debris and potentially nasty sized rocks out there compared to the number of people shrieking about our impending slightly warmer earth. The big reason is that it isn’t very sexy work, unlike being a proponent of Anthropocentric Global Warming (AGW). If you work on space debris, minor planet orbits and earth crossing orbits about the best you can hope for is getting to name a new rock nobody else saw, or maybe getting your name in the paper while being misquoted by some reporter who doesn’t have a clue about what preliminary results or margin of error means when he says that your recently discovered rock will destroy the earth in 2029.
By comparison if you use your computer model to predict that according to your model the earth might possibly warm by somewhere between 0.9 and 3.5 degrees Celsius by the year 2100 you get to hang out with Al Gore and Bono and morally scold the ignorant proles for driving their SUVs to pick up the kids from daycare as you jet off to Switzerland for another speaking engagement. Of course there is one other distinction. The guy cataloging rocks is actually doing science, and that’s hard work.
One of the problems many people, especially scientists, are starting to have with the AGW proponents is their use of shrill tone and authority of numbers to try to stifle debate. Science is not consensus, and though there can be a scientific consensus that doesn’t constitute science either. Computer models predicting conditions 50 years from now in a system as complex as the earth aren’t within spitting distance of science. To be science something has to be testable and falsifiable. It must produce a predicted data point, interaction or outcome that is unique to the theory and can be verified or falsified. Would you bet your future on the accuracy of day seven of a seven day weather forecast? That is essentially what we are being told by the AGW proponents we absolutely must do without delay. Of course I think the without delay part has more to do with “We must pass the stimulus without delay” or “We must pass healthcare without delay” considerations than any notion that waiting three or four years will actuall make any long term difference.
read the rest of the article at The Corner
h/t to Planet Gore
Graeme Rodaughan (20:38:29) — The first half of that was the beginning of “Rendezvous with Rama”. The second half’s Ark was in “Hitchhicker’s Guide to the Galaxy”.
OT Anthony has experienced a crashing Monbiot article into his orbit
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2009/jul/30/climate-change-deniers-monbiot
I think it likely that the one that gets us won’t be seen.
Aircraft pilots will understand what I mean when I state the obvious that a mid-air is between aircraft whose pilots haven’t seen the other aircraft.
As I said, that much is obvious. What isn’t so obvious is WHY they didn’t see each other.
The reason is to do with the way our brains work in perceiving threats.
We react to thinks that MOVE in our field of vision, two aircraft on a collision course are not perceived as moving because of the trigonometry of collisions.
The object that is on a collision course remains static within the field of vision, only becoming larger, something that we are not so attuned to detect, this is to do with similar triangles as the two aircraft move along their courses.
Airmiss incidents are when the two aircraft are on courses close enough to collision to render the movements in field of vision imperceptible.
That’s why it’s unlikely we will see it coming, because it won’t be moving.
DaveE.
John (03:06:43) :
“…What is it about the AGW debate and not other areas of science that attracts so much interest from the general public? Why are you here and why is it so important to you to prove it wrong (or right)? Why not other more contentious areas of science?….Don’t get me wrong I think it’s great so many people are interested in science (despite the appalling abuses of science I’ve read) but why this issue?…”
John, There are two reasons. The first is the destruction of science. Thanks to the politicos “science” is no longer unbiased seeking of truth but a political football. This has major repercussions. For example “GMO” food was declared natural with no need for testing by “tame” scientists in the FDA and now we find major problems that may be caused by it such as bees and bats dying off not to mention sterility problems and super weeds.
The second reason is AGW as well as the “food scares” and the “banking crisis” are being used to bankrupt the first world nations allowing the UN/bankers a major grab for power.
Study up on the Federal Reserve Bank and its clones in other countries, the World bank/IMF SAPrograms and what the WTO Agreement on Ag has done to food quality (HACCP)
to get you started:
The World Bank/IMF structural adjustment programs http://www.50years.org/action/s26/factsheet2.html
http://freedomprime.blogspot.com/2008/08/money-is-created-by-banks-evidence.html
http://investment-blog.net/milton-friedman-nobel-prize-winning-economist-the-federal-reserve-definitely-caused-the-great-depression-by-contracting-the-amount-of-currency-in-circulation-by-one-third-from-1929-to-1933/
“The Fed Note is essentially unsound. It is the worst currency and the most dangerous that this Country has ever known… They should not have made the Government [liable on the private] debts of individuals and corporations, and, least of all, on the private debts of foreigners.” http://home.hiwaay.net/~becraft/mcfadden.html
Nine American Presidents have been the targets of assassination http://theruthlesstruth.com/wordpress/?p=742
A PRIMER ON MONEY: Congressional COMMITTEE ON BANKING AND CURRENCY
http://famguardian.org/Subjects/MoneyBanking/Money/patman-primer-on-money.pdf
The “food safety bills” are similar to laws in Europe used to remove millions of farmers from their land so it can be taken over by corporations. http://yupfarming.blogspot.com/2009/05/food-safety-bills-more-dangerous-than_08.html
This seems to be the grand plan for the USA: Obama’s Head Science Advisor mentioned “wildlands” in one of his speeches. The “Wildlands Project” was first conceived by Dave Foreman and H.R. 980 was first introduced in 1993 by Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) http://www.utvguide.net/news/2009/05/massive-wilderness-bill-sounds-alarm-in.html
AGW is just a part of the plan. In Sept. 14, 1994 David Rockefeller, speaking at the UN Business Council,.
“This present window of opportunity, during which a truly peaceful and interdependent world order might be built, will not be open for too long – We are on the verge of a global transformation. All we need is the right major crisis and the nations will accept the New World Order.”
What “ major crisis” could he be talking about? Skipping ahead to the present we find stories of “JP Morgan Chase to become Megabank” and “Analysts say JP Morgan Chase (the Rockefellers, Morgans and the Rothschilds) will emerge from the bank collapse as the big winner” We also find Monsanto (85% financial institutions owned) reported record earnings in 2008. The rest of the Ag Corporations are privately owned so no reports are available. Gee what a coincidence! the Ag companies and JP Morgan Chase all come up winners while the peons in the USA lose there jobs, their homes and now food costs and taxes are poised to soar thanks to the new laws.
It is not a republic or a democracy “they” have in mind but feudalism.
David Rockefeller praised the major media for their complicity in helping to facilitate the globalist agenda by saying,
“We are grateful to the Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years. . . . It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subjected to the lights of publicity during those years. But, the world is now more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries.”
I hope that puts AGW in the proper frame of reference for you.
PHA’s? It’s all been done over and over again at the green, politically & environmentally correct NBC, the propaganda arm of GE.
First they ran, on two Sunday’s, the plate tectonic disaster in which North America was split in two by a rift that ran from the Gulf of Mexico through Canada to the Arctic Ocean.
This was followed (again on two Sunday’s) by another disaster in which a brown dwarf remnant (a PHA to end all PHA’s) impacted the moon and was drawing it to Earth and the total destruction of everything. No problem – have some scientists hop on a rocket to the moon, build a power plant, and expel the foreign object.
This was then followed by another two Sunday special with a more traditional PHA about the size of Everest. No problem – we’ll just fire off all our nukes at it. Wait – how can rockets designed to just lob a package suddenly become able to keep going and going off into space? Hey, it’s television; you don’t expect any intelligence out of that box, do you? I missed the second half of this disaster epic – even my mind can only swallow so much … stuff. Slept through the whole second episode.
The latest NBC disaster (some would say that their whole programming schedule is a disaster) is weather control gone bad, with the usual bad guys – business linked to the military. Gotta admit – it does have quite a number of comic moments. The weather control people keep firing off their rays into space, bouncing off satellites and crossing the skies, messing with planetary weather and the hapless weather forecasters haven’t got a clue (nothing new there).
All that’s left to do is for NBC to air Gore’s AIT some Sunday night, to fit in with the rest of their disaster theme – hey, the man is his own walking disaster – we’ve heard of the “Gore-effect.”
“That’s why it’s unlikely we will see it coming, because it won’t be moving.”
Actually for PHA’s, because of the way orbital mechanics make things move in curves it will be moving against the background, right up until it’s much too late to do anything about it.
And, unlike AGW, we *are* going to get hit. Definitely. 100%. For sure. The only question is when.
I think I will just kill myself right now!
Mathman said :
“The recent collision of a PHA with Jupiter was apparently not predicted in advance.”
That’s because we’re looking for NEOs (Near Earth Objects) not NJOs. Which anyway would be damn difficult to spot, essentially impossible if the object was an asteroid. Shoemaker Levy 9 was a comet and much more easy to see.
Forty-five years is a fair amount of time. The first 45 years of the 20th century saw the development of radio, aircraft, and the atom bomb. The second 45 years saw the computer, the microchip, and the beginnings of space travel. We could do a lot in the next 45 years, if we don’t hide our fearful heads in the AGW sand and if we don’t put the brakes on progress, as the neo-Luddites and eco-Marxists want us to.
In addition to the gravity tractor that SunSword (06:12:43) mentions, there are other techniques possible, e.g. placing rocket engines directly on the offending asteroid or comet. It should not be terribly hard, for example, to build a portable system that mines the surface material of the body and ejects it in an high-velocity stream, thereby changing the angle of approach.
Obviously, the longer we have before a predicted impact, the better our chances of success. That means (a) developing LEO and/or Lunar observatories for tracking NEOs, and (b) developing deep-space capability that will enable us to intercept probable dangers with plenty of lead time.
Rather than trying to control ‘carbon’ in pursuit of entirely chimeric ends, I’d be willing to pay a small tax devoted to an Earth Shield. A side benefit will be mining the Asteroid Belt.
As our Armed Forces say, “The difficult we do immediately; the impossible takes a little longer.” Forty-five years is plenty of time, if we put our minds, money, and backs to it.
/Mr Lynn
PS Julian Flood (02:32:30): Sounds like a rip-roarin’ good tale. I’d like to read the whole thing.
GHG’s are so much more important because we humans are causing them. We humans are not causing the PHA’s so our activities don’t need to be curtailed and taxed in order to prevent PHA’s. Humans are evil and harmful to all life on earth so naturally an impending doom caused by human activity is more romantic and far more hyped than one that is not caused by humans and therefore beyond our control.
However, they will eventually figure out that the multitudes of humans are increasing the earth’s gravitational pull and THAT’s causing PHA’s to zero in on earth .. . . and you know how that story goes.
Sometimes my imagination gets away with me
More alarmism. Come on, Anthony. You’re better than this. Don’t stoop to the level of the AGWers.
There are closer “asteroids” (etymology:”resembling stars”) which are by far more dangerous 🙂
Just throwing this out there. How about a cheap solution (relatively speaking). Attach a large solar sail to said object ( assuming of course that we have seen it coming). It will not have to move it off trajectory much, but over distances, not much is needed. I have spoken before of the construction of a space elevator ( or 3 around the equator as I like the Ramans notion of triple redundancy ). This would be just one more on top of many reasons this should be done. The technology for either is NOT out of reach even today. I, for one, would rather spend a trillion on a space elevator than to flush it down the toilet trying to stop a non-problem.
Visits to asteroids:
Spacecraft Deep Impact sent an impactor to hit asteroid Tempel 1 in 2006. Images of the event can be found via this link:
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/deepimpact/main/index.html
The Hayabusa probe visited asteroid Itokawa in 2005 on a sampling attempt. This is thought to have failed and despite problems with the spacecraft, it is on its way back to Earth.
http://www.jaxa.jp/press/2009/02/20090204_hayabusa_e.html
The NEAR Shoemaker spacecraft visited and landed on asteroid Eros in 2001.
http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/near.html
Nasa’s DAWN spacecraft is currently on its way to orbit both Ceres and Vesta.
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/dawn/main/index.html
More information about missions to space can be found here:
http://www.nasa.gov/missions/current/index.html
Cesar Vallejo’ s The Black Heralds:
There are blows in life, so powerful… I don’t know!
Blows like God’s hatred; as if before them,
the undertow of everything suffered
were to well up in the soul… I don’t know!
They are few; but they exist… They open dark furrows
in the most ferocious face and the most powerful loins.
Perhaps they’re wooden horses of barbaric Attilas,
or the black messengers that Death sends to us.
They’re profound lapses of the soul’s Christs,
of some adorable faith that Destiny blasphemes.
Those bloodthirsty blows are cracklings of some
bread that in the oven’s door burns up on us.
And man.. Poor…poor man! He turns his eyes, as
when a slap on the shoulder calls us by name;
he turns his crazed eyes, and everything he’s lived
wells up, like a pool of guilt, in his gaze.
There are blows in life, so powerful… I don’t know!
For those living in the UK, you can visit the Spaceguard Centre and see the work that is being done in the UK on Near Earth Objects.
http://www.spaceguarduk.com/spaceguard
When I last visited, they used a 14 inch refractor to do the meticulous/tedious work of plotting the orbit of newly discovered NEOs. No Goverment money. Relying solely on visitors, and interested individuals and companies.
They are in the process of installing a 24 inch (61 cm) Schmidt Camera (it is the largest telescope in Wales) at the Spaceguard Centre to conduct a wide field sky survey to detect Near Earth Objects and other transient phenomena.
I was lucky enough on my first visit to be the only person there and the owner focused the visit on my knowledge level. I had recently done a University Level course on planetary science and the search for life with a segment on asteroids, meteorites etc. I had my hand lens with me (I am taking a degree in Earth Sciences) and he let me examine many of the specimens he had.
The centre is between Knighton and Ludlow in the Welsh Marches.
Well worth a visit.
“Which is the bigger threat: PHA’s or GHG’s ?”
Considering the vast probability that GHG’s are not an actual real issue PHA clearly are a proven threat thus bigger by every measure.
Sorry if this is too far afield…but I think it’s in the same vein.
I seem to be the only one to be a little shocked at the cavalier response to the Swine flu by WHO and others. So many seem to say its boring, overhyped, etc.
At various times estimated that 1/3, 50%, or the latest, 40% of the worlds populate will contract the Swine flu. Now it’s a very mild flu and I don’t think anyone can estimate the mortality rate accurately, but on the high end it may be 0.4%, but it’s probably lower.
According to World Population http://www.ibiblio.org/lunarbin/worldpop the world population is about 6,930 million. So as many as 6,930 million * 0.004 ~= 28 million people may die. Assuming nothing changes this number is likely on the high side, perhaps by a factor of 10. But there is always the possibility of a more deadly mutation.
If the mortality rate increases to 10-20%, that translates into 690-1380 million potential deaths.
Can you imagine just giving up on almost 30 million people without a fight, while all of this commotion goes on about the possibility of some warming?
MikeEE
Gail Combs (07:14:03) :
Thanks for your posting Gail.
Do you believe there are still people who do not believe AGW is part of a conspiracy that will put us in (Green) Shackles?
We are ruled by traitors.
This topic is one of many answers to the “precautionary principle” argument for “doing something” about carbon dioxide emissions.
Kath, thanks for the asteroid mission list.
Public Opinion is turning against Gobal Warming almost as quickly as science!
http://www.examiner.com/x-17412-Macon-County-Conservative-Examiner~y2009m7d29-Public-opinion-turning-against-global-warming-almost-as-quickly-as-science
On moving asteroids:
The problem with most of the ‘obvious’ methods* for changing the orbit of a large body like an asteroid is that asteroids rotate. Which makes controlling the thrust rather difficult.
That’s why the gravity tractor idea is so appealing.
* Such as using a solar sail, attaching rockets or using mass drivers to shoot rocks off the surface.
The reason we missed the jupiter impact is because Eugene Shoemaker is no longer with us. Amateurs are responsible for most new discoveries in most scientific fields. Climatologists are the only ones who dismiss amateurs out of hand. They have done so at their own detriment.
Annette (07:57:53) :
“GHG’s are so much more important because we humans are causing them.”
Eh? We humans also cause gardens with cutted grass and lots of other things. CO2 is a natural gas which has varied between 2200 ppm and 180 ppm the last 50 millions of years. Now CO2 levels are lower than ever. Do you got this, or do you want a proxy graph?
http://biocab.org/Geological_Timescale.jpg
CO2 doesn’t harm the environment, so if we are cause a slight increase of CO2 — or even doubling of CO2 (which is by no means likely) that isn’t either a problem. CO2 is a good gas for nature!
The most CO2 can do is to increase temparature a few tenth of a degree Celsius. But if the climate system instead has reinforcing positive feedback for temperature — which no empirical data tells us; all ata tells us the opposite –, then CO2 may raise temperature with 2 degrees C, but that’s not dangerous either. It would be good; look at these temperature graphs from Greenland (Schwartz and Randall’s, and NASA’s) :
http://www.heuersdorf.de/Wrldclmt/Wrdclm2.jpg
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Paleoclimatology_Evidence/Images/gisp2_temperature.gif
The correlation in Al Gore’s CO2 and temperature graphs describes an opposite cause and effect to what Gore falsly told the viewers. No proxy data suggests that CO2 controls the global temperature.
But the natural variation in low level cloud cover (LLC) — e g the reduced LLC by 5 percent between 1993 and 2001 — means a lot more in energy balance compared to all CO2 emissions since industrialization started. This is also the opinioin of several scientists working for in IPCC. I’ve heard Joyce Penner describing this.
But, basically, I think you’re just like any other AGW promoters. I don’t for a second think that you are willing to seriously take any of these arguments into consideration. All you’ll do is to repeat your mantra with political implications. I’m bet you’ll maybe try to change focus on this discussion, or something like that, but you’ll not prove me wrong on this; you’ll not take my arguments seriously, and you will for sure repeat your mantra (with all its strong political implications eithin the framework of AGW in the environmentalism). This is what fascism looks like.
If we are causing a supposedly dangerous (sic!) gas, CO2, we need to be forced to change our behavour = politics.
No surprice your mantra is “we humans are causing them”. All historical periods 1-2 degrees C warmer than now has been better — if we can cause that warming it’s something positive. But that positive development wouldn’t imply politics.
GHGs are heavier than Nitrogen and Oxygen, main components of the atmosphere (60% and 21%) another reason against the current belief that they are going up around saving warm to heat the atmosphere up:
THE SUN: A MAGNETIC PLASMA DIFFUSER THAT CONTROLS EARTH’S CLIMATE O. Manuel
Although Earth’s gravitational field is 330,000 times weaker than the Sun’s field, even here the lightest gas, Hydrogen, is sorted out and moved to the top of the atmosphere while heavier Carbon-dioxide gas is concentrated in low-lying places like Death Valley