Short Circuiting The Scientific Process – A Serious Problem In The Climate Science Community

Guest post from Roger Pielke Sr., originally posted on Climate Science

There has been a development over the last 10-15 years or so in the scientific peer reviewed literature that is short circuiting the scientific method.

The scientific method involves developing a hypothesis and then seeking to refute it. If all attempts to discredit the hypothesis fails, we start to accept the proposed theory as being an accurate description of how the real world works.

A useful summary of the scientific method is given on the website sciencebuddies.org.where they list six steps

  • Ask a Question
  • Do Background Research
  • Construct a Hypothesis
  • Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment
  • Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion
  • Communicate Your Results

Unfortunately, in recent years papers have been published in the peer reviewed literature that fail to follow these proper steps of scientific investigation. These papers are short circuiting the scientific method.

Specifically, papers that present predictions of the climate decades into the future have proliferated. Just a two recent examples (and there are many others) are

Hu, A., G. A. Meehl, W. Han, and J. Yin (2009), Transient response of the MOC and climate to potential melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the 21st century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L10707, doi:10.1029/2009GL037998.

Solomon, S. 2009: Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Published online before print January 28, 2009, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0812721106

Such studies are even reported in the media before the peer reviewed process is completed; e.g. see in the article by Hannad Hoag in the May 27 2009 issue of Nature News Hot times ahead for the Wild West.

These studies are based on models, of which only a portion of which represent basic physics (e.g. the pressure gradient force, advection and the universal gravitational constant), with the remainder of the physics parameterized with tuned engineering code (e.g see).

When I served as Chief Editor of the Monthly Weather Reviews (1981-1985), The Co-Chief Editor of the Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (1996-2000), and as Editor-in-Chief of the US National Science Report to the IUGG  for the American Geophysical Union (1993-1996), such papers would never have been accepted.

What the current publication process has evolved into, at the detriment of proper scientific investigation, are the publication of untested (and often untestable) hypotheses.  The fourth step in the scientific method “Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment” is bypassed.

This is a main reason that the policy community is being significantly misinformed about the actual status of our understanding of the climate system and the role of humans within it.

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Gilbert
June 9, 2009 1:09 pm

Anthony,
Maybe the following paper by Dr. David Evans might be worth a thread?
http://www.sciencespeak.com/MissingSignature.pdf
Each cause of global warming heats up the atmosphere in a distinctive pattern—its “signature”. According to IPPC climate theory, the signature of carbon emissions and the signature of warming due to all causes during the recent global warming both include a prominent ?hotspot? at about 10 – 12 km in the air over the tropics. But the observed warming pattern during the recent global warming contains no trace of any such hotspot. Therefore:
1. IPCC climate theory is fundamentally wrong.
2. To the extent that IPCC climate theory is correct in predicting a hotspot due to extra carbon dioxide, we know that carbon emissions did not cause the recent global warming.

Ron de Haan
June 9, 2009 1:18 pm

Another harsh example:
http://www.rightsidenews.com/200906075057/energy-and-environment/eco-colonialism-degrades-africa.html
June 7, 2009
by Willie Soon and Paul Driessen
Eco-Imperialism.com
Green, UN, rich nation and African elites impose deadly anti-development colonialism
Sub-Saharan Africa remains one of Earth’s most impoverished regions. Over 90% of its people still lack electricity, running water, proper sanitation and decent housing. Malaria, malnutrition, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS and intestinal diseases kill millions every year. Life expectancy is appalling, and falling.
And yet UN officials, European politicians, environmentalist groups and even African authorities insist that global warming is the gravest threat facing the continent. They claim there is no longer any debate over human-caused global warming – but ignore thousands of scientists who say human CO2 emissions are not the primary cause of climate changes, there is no evidence that future warming will be catastrophic, and computer models do not provide valid projections or “scenarios” for the future.
[Global] Warming alarmists use the “specter of climate change” to justify inhumane policies and shift the blame for problems that could be solved with the very technologies they oppose.
Past colonialism sought to develop mining, forestry and agriculture, and bring better government and healthcare practices to Africa . Eco-colonialism keeps Africans “traditional” and “indigenous,” by insisting that modern technologies are harmful and not “sustainable” in Africa .
Abundant, reliable, affordable electricity could power homes, offices, factories, schools and hospitals, create jobs, bring clean running water, and generate health and prosperity. But Rainforest Action Network and other pressure groups oppose coal and natural gas electricity generation on the grounds of climate change, and hydroelectric and nuclear power for other ideological reasons. They promote wind turbines and solar panels that provide electricity unreliably and in amounts too small to meet any but the most rudimentary needs.
Biotechnology could produce bumper crops that overcome droughts, floods, insects, viruses, and even global warming and cooling. But Greenpeace and Sierra Club oppose this precision hybrid-making technology, and instead promote land and labor-intensive subsistence farming.
DDT and insecticides could slash malaria rates that Al Gore and other climate alarmists falsely claim are rising because of global warming. But Pesticide Action Network and other activists stridently oppose their use, and the European Parliament recently imposed new pesticide restrictions that will further restrict African access to life-saving chemicals.
Recent incidents dramatize how depraved and deadly global warming politics have become.
In Gambia , a UN-subsidized “national ministerial dialogue” promoted extremist views on “catastrophic climate change” and “sustainable development.” A Forestry and Environment department representative asserted that it would be “nearly impossible to adapt to … impacts such as the loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet … and [resultant] 5-15 meter sea level rise.”
There was no mention of the near-zero probability of such an event happening. Average annual temperatures in Antarctica hover around minus 50 Centigrade (-58 F), while average temperatures for the two-month summer in its Western Peninsula are barely four degrees above freezing.
Scary tales of runaway temperature spikes melting 200,000 cubic miles of peninsular ice might be expected from Al Gore and James Hansen. But when Gambian ministers engage in such unscrupulous propaganda, they further degrade the health and welfare of their people.
Cameroon hosted a “fact-finding” visit from seven senior British Members of Parliament, who declaimed that climate change is “a jinx that threatens humanity more than HIV/AIDS.” They were joined by Cameroon ‘s Minister of Forestry and Wildlife in urging that forests be managed to increase absorption of planetary carbon dioxide and “reduce global warming.”
Few climate actions, however, come close to the travesty being played out in nearby Chad . There the government has banned the manufacture, importation and use of charcoal – the sole source of fuel for 99% of Chadians.
“Cooking is a fundamental necessity for every household,” its Environment Minister pronounced. But “with climate change every citizen must protect his environment.”
The edict has sent women and children scavenging for dead branches, cow dung, grass and anything else that burns. “People cannot cook,” said human rights activist Merlin Totinon Nguebetan. “Women giving birth cannot even find a bit of charcoal to heat water for washing,” said another.
The government admitted it had failed to prepare the public for its sudden decree, but announced no change in plans – saying only that scarce propane might be an alternative for some. When citizens protested, they were violently dispersed by police.
“We will not give up,” a women’s group leader said. “Better to die swiftly than continue dying slowly.”
So this is where radical climate change alarmism has taken us. When the health of Planet Earth is at stake, human life means little – even if the “disasters” are nothing more than worst-case scenarios conjured up by computer models, headline writers, Hollywood , and professional doomsayers like Gore, Hansen and NOAA alarmist-in-chief Susan Solomon.
“Every time someone dies as a result of floods in Bangladesh , an airline executive should be dragged out of his office and drowned,” British arch-environmentalist George Monbiot hectored readers of The Guardian, in a typically hysteria-laced column.
One has to wonder if he would apply the same standard to eco-colonialist executives who continue to perpetuate poverty, disease, malnutrition and death in the name of preventing “global warming disasters” that fewer and fewer respectable scientists still believe are caused by human greenhouse gas emissions.
As economist Indur Goklany and even the UN climate panel acknowledge, future generations will be far richer than today’s. Poor families today should not be asked to bear the burden for richer families tomorrow, especially to guard against speculative climate and sustainability “disasters” whose “solutions” are worse than the purported problems.
The United Nations, European Union and United States need to address Africa ‘s real problems and replace lethal eco-colonialism with fact-based science and humane public policies. And African countries need to take command of their future.
Africa needs to curb corruption. Adopt property rights and free enterprise principles. Promote sustained development. Utilize disease-preventing insecticides and modern agricultural biotechnology.
Rely less on foreign aid that is shriveling in the global recession and often comes with conditions and prohibitions that keep communities and nations deprived of energy and mired in poverty. Work with companies that want to develop natural resources, to get help building hospitals, schools and large-scale power plants that provide dependable, affordable electricity.
In short, Africa needs to remember Milton Friedman’s sage advice: “Poor countries should not do what rich countries did once they became rich. They should do what rich countries did to become rich.”
______________
Soon is chief science adviser for the Science and Public Policy Institute and author of numerous papers on climate change. Driessen is senior policy advisor for the Congress of Racial Equality and author of Eco-Imperialism: Green Power Black Death.

June 9, 2009 1:28 pm

Ron de Haan,
Scary article. This part bothered me a lot:

Cameroon hosted a “fact-finding” visit from seven senior British Members of Parliament, who declaimed that climate change is “a jinx that threatens humanity more than HIV/AIDS.” They were joined by Cameroon ’s Minister of Forestry and Wildlife in urging that forests be managed to increase absorption of planetary carbon dioxide and “reduce global warming.”
Few climate actions, however, come close to the travesty being played out in nearby Chad . There the government has banned the manufacture, importation and use of charcoal – the sole source of fuel for 99% of Chadians.
“Cooking is a fundamental necessity for every household,” its Environment Minister pronounced. But “with climate change every citizen must protect his environment.”
The edict has sent women and children scavenging for dead branches, cow dung, grass and anything else that burns. “People cannot cook,” said human rights activist Merlin Totinon Nguebetan. “Women giving birth cannot even find a bit of charcoal to heat water for washing,” said another.

The Brit MP’s no doubt realize that they are endorsing policies that directly result in the unnecessary deaths of Africans. But like all Leftists in power, they don’t care.
And there isn’t much difference between the British MP’s, and Hansen, Gore and their acolytes…
…lookin’ at you —> Joe Romm.

Gilbert
June 9, 2009 1:34 pm

Benjamin P. (09:11:09) :
That’s just speculation Anna. Where is the evidence to support that?

Jump up and down a few times. If Anna is wrong, you will find yourself in orbit.

June 9, 2009 2:05 pm

Leif Svalgaard (12:49:36) :

…It is more the unwashed masses that are to blame for lapping up the media stuff…

I’m not claiming to have the answers, but I think the problem goes far beyond the ‘unwashed masses’ at this point.
For one thing, there is the cozy hand-in-glove relationship that has evolved between the government and all levels of education — which has given us mass ignorance. Do government schools even teach civics any more? Or the Constitution? Or any kind of ethical behavior based on Western values? No. The rabble is instructed through sound bites. And morals are so old fashioned.
And what about the unholy symbiosis of government and the major media outlets? Did you notice recently that President Obama had receptions that only included only *ahem* ‘friendly’ news reporters and talking heads? That’s not a free press any more, that is tantamount to official propaganda.
I don’t have the answers. But I know when things are going wrong.

Ron de Haan
June 9, 2009 2:13 pm

Smokey (13:28:47) :
The Brit MP’s no doubt realize that they are endorsing policies that directly result in the unnecessary deaths of Africans. But like all Leftists in power, they don’t care.
And there isn’t much difference between the British MP’s, and Hansen, Gore and their acolytes…
…lookin’ at you —> Joe Romm.
Smokey,
As I see it the UN, their followers and servants are purpetrating a crime against humanity in a way that keeps them out of the courts.
They have learned from the NAZI practices and kill by policy without ever haveing to say “Wir haben es nich gewüsst”.
Fortunately we know better and we will put these rats aside before they are able to cause any further damage.
I did not forget the day when Vaslac Claus held his excellent speech before the EU Parliament and the left stood up and walked away.
They took a severe beating at the last EU elections and a major hift to the right took place.
The left is taking hits globaly and there will come a moment in time where we can restore (undo) this madness.
GB will be freed from one of the most prominent architects of the current AGW policies as Mr. Brown will be forced to pack his suitcase and go.
The current US Administration will be confronted with the same faith.
We will send them home.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/06/the_collapsing_global_left_1.html
http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/new-jelly-pump-rewrites-carbon-cycle

Ron de Haan
June 9, 2009 2:19 pm
Gilbert
June 9, 2009 2:19 pm

Anthony,
Still think that the educational angle is worth a thread. It points to an area that needs real attention.
http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2008/03/03/7435
Teacher Under Fire For Showing Gore Film Without Rebuttal
by Ben Fulton
“It’s very difficult to find materials on the other side of the debate that are science-based,” Gentry said. “That comment’s going to get me into trouble, but it’s true.
“Yes, a good teacher would present all the different ways in which we know why the climate changes. At the same time, current data show that our climate has never changed this fast before.”

oms
June 9, 2009 2:22 pm

anna v (11:46:49) :

Gravity is not a model, it is a theory. A model, as used in AGW, is a hodge podge of many theories a la gravity theory according to the modeler’s whim and taste.
Theories are predictive, that is why they are called accepted theories, because their equations can be used to predict with precision, in the case of gravity, trajectories and statics.

anna, you might take Newton’s law of gravitation to be an example of the same type of model. The model says that you can abstract two objects into “masses” separated by a distance, plug that in, and get an attractive acceleration out. Combine it with some more models of the inertial frame (laws of motion) and some machinery complete with esoteric encoding (Newton’s calculus) and you can compute some time integrated momentum changes, for example.
Granted it’s all quite precise and extremely well-supported by observation, but it does run into problems when you try to do something like GPS, in which case the model needs further refinement. In any case, the distinction seems to be one of (massive) degree, not kind.
Whether or not it takes a digital computer or just hordes of grad students to iterate shouldn’t matter from a philosophical perspective. (The moral perspective may differ, however!)

Ron de Haan
June 9, 2009 2:34 pm

Ron de Haan,
Scary article. This part bothered me a lot:
Cameroon hosted a “fact-finding” visit from seven senior British Members of Parliament, who declaimed that climate change is “a jinx that threatens humanity more than HIV/AIDS.” They were joined by Cameroon ’s Minister of Forestry and Wildlife in urging that forests be managed to increase absorption of planetary carbon dioxide and “reduce global warming.”
Few climate actions, however, come close to the travesty being played out in nearby Chad . There the government has banned the manufacture, importation and use of charcoal – the sole source of fuel for 99% of Chadians.
“Cooking is a fundamental necessity for every household,” its Environment Minister pronounced. But “with climate change every citizen must protect his environment.”
The edict has sent women and children scavenging for dead branches, cow dung, grass and anything else that burns. “People cannot cook,” said human rights activist Merlin Totinon Nguebetan. “Women giving birth cannot even find a bit of charcoal to heat water for washing,” said another.
The Brit MP’s no doubt realize that they are endorsing policies that directly result in the unnecessary deaths of Africans. But like all Leftists in power, they don’t care.
And there isn’t much difference between the British MP’s, and Hansen, Gore and their acolytes…
…lookin’ at you —> Joe Romm.
Smokey,
The UN, it’s followers and servants is purpretrating crimes against humanity at a scale that dwarfs that of the NAZI’s, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot and the Spanish flue put together.
They have learned from the Neurenburg trials and organize their crimes in a manner that keeps them out of court.
The only way to beat them is the politcal way.
I remember the left fractions walking away from the excellent speech held by
Vaclav Claus in front of the EU Parliament.
The latest EU elections have been devastating for the left and their power base is crumbling as is the AGW doctrine.
Let’s make it clear to them that this time there is no “Wir haben es nicht gewüsst”.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/06/the_collapsing_global_left_1.html

Graeme Rodaughan
June 9, 2009 2:48 pm

E.M.Smith (00:19:00) :
… Oh, and folks don’t turn away from you at parties when you say what you do for a living… “Stock Trader” gets far more positive attention than “Unix Programmer”, or worse, “Manager of Information Services” ever did.

Whoops – I’m a social pariah!

Bob Kutz
June 9, 2009 2:55 pm

I would tell you there’s very little practicle difference between Al Gore and Joseph Stalin. They both claimed to have the best of intentions for ‘the people’ at heart.
Al Gore’s net worth is now in the 100 million U.S. dollar range, or so I am told. He lives a privileged life of mansions and private jets while advocating policies and limits that doom millions and that he himself is unwilling to follow.
He has accomplices in the ‘scientific’ community that obscure and taint the data, and insists that any evidence that run’s contrary to his ‘true knowledge’ be demonized, and those who produce it be ostracized from the scientific community.
Just my opinion.

Ron de Haan
June 9, 2009 2:55 pm

I would adapt the title of this article:
Short Circuiting The Scientific Process – A Serious Problem In The Climate Science Community, a serious threat to humanity.

Paul Vaughan
June 9, 2009 2:58 pm

Re: Leif Svalgaard (12:49:36) & Chris Schoneveld (12:19:40)
How about blaming the education system? (…and then tracing back further to investigate what is screwing *it* up?)

June 9, 2009 3:16 pm

Paul Vaughan (14:58:05) :
How about blaming the education system? (…and then tracing back further to investigate what is screwing *it* up?)
I’ll not blame the ‘system’. It is the people that screw it up. Kansas and Texas come to mind…

tallbloke
June 9, 2009 3:19 pm

Gilbert (14:19:53) :
Teacher Under Fire For Showing Gore Film Without Rebuttal
by Ben Fulton
“It’s very difficult to find materials on the other side of the debate that are science-based,” Gentry said. “That comment’s going to get me into trouble, but it’s true.
“Yes, a good teacher would present all the different ways in which we know why the climate changes. At the same time, current data show that our climate has never changed this fast before.”

In th UK, it is illegal to show the gore catastrophe movie without reading out the Judges findings on the incorrectness of Gore’s commentary from the court case where a brave lorry driver took the Brown govt to the high court for pushing propaganda into his son’s head. Monckton was the plaintiffs advisor.
http://www.newparty.co.uk/articles/inaccuracies-gore.html

June 9, 2009 3:24 pm

I’m way late commeting on this, but I wrote on this topic a few weeks ago. I found a very simple description of the scientific method from a school district for K-12 students. If we expect our kids to follow it, why can’t the climate scientists?
http://co2realist.com/2009/05/16/scientific-method-for-k-12-a-model-for-climate-scientists/

tallbloke
June 9, 2009 3:25 pm

cba (12:45:46) :
Ben p. 9:11:09
Models like what you’re referring to are not time iterative like a climate model. That is the rules and/or conditions are not changing with time without some overall guiding principles directing those changes to prevent errors from compounding and blowing up in your face. The fact that time and space resolution are insufficient, approximations are being used, and some of the physics is sometimes dead wrong or even missing from the model are other ‘minor’ difficulties that prevent results from being achieved.
It’s been a long time since the deterministic universe concept bit the dust.

on the nail as usual cba

Fred Souder
June 9, 2009 3:30 pm

Leif
I’ll not blame the ’system’. It is the people that screw it up. Kansas and Texas come to mind…

Hey! I resemble that remark!
This is not just a problem in the Climate Science Community.
Physics has the same issues going on right now, it is just not as damaging to our lifestyles. Superstrings is the “greenhouse effect” of physics. Broken peer review processes, mismanagement of grant spending, etc.

DaveE
June 9, 2009 3:48 pm

I’ve noted engineers here test their designs to destruction.
I had to program a machine without access to the actual machine, so all my destructive analysis had to be conducted in my head with what ifs.
I wish that I had charged them on a 5% of savings for 2 years basis. Over the original programming, I saved them £5000/Week +.
Oh well, one lives & learns

Graeme Rodaughan
June 9, 2009 3:48 pm

Gilbert (13:09:35) :
Anthony,
Maybe the following paper by Dr. David Evans might be worth a thread?
http://www.sciencespeak.com/MissingSignature.pdf
Each cause of global warming heats up the atmosphere in a distinctive pattern—its “signature”. According to IPPC climate theory, the signature of carbon emissions and the signature of warming due to all causes during the recent global warming both include a prominent ?hotspot? at about 10 – 12 km in the air over the tropics. But the observed warming pattern during the recent global warming contains no trace of any such hotspot. Therefore:
1. IPCC climate theory is fundamentally wrong.
2. To the extent that IPCC climate theory is correct in predicting a hotspot due to extra carbon dioxide, we know that carbon emissions did not cause the recent global warming.

This goes to what I have said earlier – advocacy science will ignore or attack contrary evidence.

Ron de Haan
June 9, 2009 3:49 pm

http://www.visandvals.org/Opening_Pandora_s_Box.php
Opening Pandora’s Box: Classifying CO2 as a “Pollutant”
By Dr. Mark W. Hendrickson
June 08, 2009
A few days before “Earth Day” (which happens to be the same day as Lenin’s Birthday), America’s ideological greens and reds received a present they have been desiring for many moons: The Environmental Protection Agency—egged on by the U.S. Supreme Court—officially designated carbon dioxide (CO2) as a pollutant. That means that either congress or the EPA is expected to produce a plan for regulating this common gas.
So opens a new chapter in regulatory absurdity, a veritable Pandora’s Box of complications.
A generation ago, it was considered great progress against pollution when catalytic converters were added to automobile engines to change poisonous carbon monoxide to benign carbon dioxide. Now, CO2 has been demonized.
The EPA’s characterization of CO2 as a pollutant brings into question the natural order of things. By the EPA’s logic, either God or Mother Nature (whichever creator you believe in) seriously goofed. After all, CO2 is the base of our food chain. CO2 nourishes plants, plants nourish animals and humans, and plants and animals serve a variety of human needs. “Pollutants” are supposed to be harmful to life, not helpful to it, aren’t they?
Of course, it is true (although greens often ignore it when trying to ban such useful chemicals as pesticides, insecticides, Alar, PCBs, etc.) that “the dose makes the poison.” Too much oxygen, for example, poses danger to human life. So, what is the “right” concentration of CO2 in our atmosphere? There is no right answer to this question. The concentration of CO2 in earth’s atmosphere fluctuated greatly long before humans appeared on earth, and that concentration has fluctuated since then, too.
The current concentration is approximately 385 parts per million. Some scientists maintain that 1,000 parts per million would provide an ideal atmosphere for plant life, accelerating plant growth and multiplying yields, thereby sustaining far more animal and human life than is currently possible. Whatever standard the EPA selects will be purely arbitrary.
“Forget about the plants, Hendrickson,” say the greens. “What we’re trying to control is how warm the earth’s atmosphere gets.” To which I reply, “With all due respect, are you kidding me?”
As with a “right” concentration of CO2, what is the “right” average global temperature? For 7,000 of the last 10,000 years, the earth was cooler than it is now; mankind prospers more in warm climates than cold climates; and the Antarctic icecap was significantly larger during the warmer mid-Holocene period than it is today. Are you sure warmer is bad or wrong?
And how do you propose to regulate the earth’s temperature when as much as 3/4 of the variability is due to variations in solar activity, with the remaining 1/4 due to changes in the earth’s orbit, axis, and albedo (reflectivity)? This truly is “mission impossible.” Mankind can no more regulate earth’s temperature than the tides.
Even if the “greenhouse effect” were greater than it actually is, the EPA and Congress would be powerless to alter it for several reasons:
1. Human activity (according to NASA data) accounts for less than 4 percent of global CO2 emissions.
2. CO2 itself accounts for only 10 or 20 percent of the greenhouse effect. (This discloses the capricious nature of EPA’s decision to classify CO2 as a pollutant, for if CO2 is a pollutant because it is a greenhouse gas, then the most common greenhouse gas of all—water vapor, which accounts for almost 3/4 of the atmosphere’s greenhouse effect—should be regulated, too. The EPA isn’t going after water vapor, of course, because then everyone would realize how absurd climate-control regulation really is.)
3. Even if Americans were to eliminate their CO2 emissions completely, total human emissions of CO2 would still increase as billions of people around the world continue to develop economically.
Clearly, it is beyond the ken of mortals to answer the meta-questions about the right concentration of CO2, or the optimal global average temperature, or to control CO2 levels in the atmosphere. I feel sorry for the professionals at EPA who are now expected to come up with answers for these unanswerable questions.
However, I do not feel sorry for the political appointees, like climate czar Carol Browner, and the whole Al Gore, left-wing political fraternity, because it looks like they are about to get what they want—the power to increase their power over Americans’ lives and pocketbooks via CO2 emission regulations.
The big questions facing us regular citizens is whether Congress or the unelected folks at EPA will decide questions like:
— Who will be forced to drive and fly less often? (If we quit using every gasoline-powered vehicle in the country, we still wouldn’t reduce CO2 emissions as much as Al Gore wants.)
— How much economic pain should be imposed on Americans for heating and cooling their homes? (Your 75-percent-higher electric bill will fund President Obama’s “green jobs” machine.)
— Which businesses will need to move offshore to power their operations at a competitive cost? (This is nothing new. EPA regulations started to off-shore oil-refinery jobs decades ago.)
The impact of CO2 regulations will hurt us far more than CO2 itself ever could. We need a miracle, folks. Let’s hope that someone nails shut the lid on this Pandora’s Box before it swings wide open and infests us with a multitude of plagues.
Dr. Mark W. Hendrickson is an adjunct faculty member, economist, and contributing scholar with The Center for Vision & Values at Grove City College.

June 9, 2009 3:56 pm

Fred Souder (15:30:05)
“I’ll not blame the ’system’. It is the people that screw it up. Kansas and Texas come to mind…”
Hey! I resemble that remark!

“resemble” ???
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_evolution_hearings
http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2008/02/texas_state_board_of_education.php?utm_source=sbhomepage&utm_medium=link&utm_content=sublink
these are LOCAL school board decisions, not the big ugly Federal Govmnt. People have what they want.

June 9, 2009 3:59 pm

Ron de Haan (15:49:39) :
And how do you propose to regulate the earth’s temperature when as much as 3/4 of the variability is due to variations in solar activity, with the remaining 1/4 due to changes in the earth’s orbit, axis, and albedo (reflectivity)?
If anything it is the other way around.

George E. Smith
June 9, 2009 4:12 pm

“”” anna v (12:18:19) :
I have to add my two cents on why AGW cannot be predictive ab initio.
I did not delve into the code, but tried to understand the logic of gridding the planet and using the fluid transport equations on the grid boundaries etc. etc. I discovered that they incorporate a lot of average values for many of the variables that control, or should control the climate.
Now using an average value for a variable is like taking the first order term in a perturbative expansion for the variable in question. First order terms are a good approximation of a solution if the solution is well behaved. This is a foolhardy assumption for a system that everybody , including the IPCC, agree is chaotic. The more time steps, the more there will be a divergence from the true solution, because the higher order terms will kick in. Actually this is the reason why weather predictions, that are based on similar models, cannot go much further than ten days, and can be wrong even short term. To make predictions for climate in time frames of ten years is totally irrational.
So, though I agree with Leif that models can be very useful tools, the way integration is a useful tool, the specific General Circulation Models of AGW are being used way out of their level of possible validation. “””
Well there’s a fundamental problem with the “gridding process” that you describe Anna, and which I am sure is pretty much what the computer modellers are doing; or something similar.
If I construct a model of something real about which I would like to know what happens at certain specific “grid locations” that are part of my model; presumably each of those grid locations has an actual physically real location associated with it on the real world stage.
So to figure out what values of variables I should assign to each of those model grid locations; I would go to each of the real analogs of those computer grid locations; and I would measure the actual real world values of all of the pertinent variables that I want to go into my model. And of course I would monitor those grid locations over time so I knew how each variable changed in time.
Then if my modelling was successful, I would expect that it would be able to generate values at each and every grid location, that match the observed values at those places as they actually happened.
That requirement does not seem to be amenable to simply inserting average static values into a computer analog of the real grid, and expect anything like reality to emergy from such a process.
When the GCMs can successfully predict the MWP, and the LIA based on their simulations; then I might be prepared to grant them some credibility.
Up till such a time; they will remain computer video games.
So it is not surprising that they seem eminently incapable of coming up with any “predictions” or even “projections” which bear any resemblance to what actually has happened in lieu of their prognostications.
The whole idea of models or theories is to relieve one from having to perform every possible experiment with every possible set of variable values, and catalog all the results for anybody who wants to know what happens if you mix A with B in some proportions.

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