The BBC has perfected the use of weasel words to create alarm. They have a lead story today :
The collapse of a major polar ice sheet will not raise global sea levels as much as previous projections suggest, a team of scientists has calculated.
Writing in Science, the researchers said that the demise of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) would result in a sea level rise of 3.3m (10 ft).
“It has been hypothesised for more than 30 years now that the WAIS is inherently unstable,” he explained.
And how many other global catastrophes have been forecast over the last 30 years? Seems like a new one nearly every week. The article goes on –
“A sea level rise of just 1.5m would displace 17 million people in Bangladesh alone,”
But the author wants us to worry about 200 years from now.
In other words, if the global average was one metre, then places like New York could expect to see a rise of 1.25m. Responding to Professor Bamber’s paper in Science, British Antarctic Survey science leader Dr David Vaughan described the findings as “quite sound”. “But for me, the most crucial question is not solely about the total amount of ice in West Antarctica, because that might take several centuries to be lost to the ocean,” he told BBC News. “The crucial question is how much ice could be lost in 100-200 years; that’s the sea level rise we have to understand and plan for.”Even with this new assessment the loss of a fraction of WAIS over those timescales would have serious consequences and costs that we’ve only really just begun to understand.”
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WilkinsIceSheet/images/wilkins_avh_2007.jpg
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Pamela Gray (07:46:24) :
You’ll just make him more big headed than he already is. I like a quite life so don’t shout it about.
Thanks …David
” Flanagan (05:27:24) :
You should add “former” in front of the Wilkins ice shelf.”
I’m looking at satellite pics of the Wilkins Ice Sheet right now, it looks much larger now than a few weeks ago. Theres this funny effect that happens when the temperatures drop below 0 C, see, it crystalizes into this substance called ‘ice’. Even salty sea water freezes at -2 C. Winter conditions in Antarctica accelerate this process.
Bangladesh risking faster than 600 mm/century
After the last ice age, Bangladesh grew in the face of 1000 mm/century sea level rise. It is now growing in spite of 400 mm/century subsidence plus 238 mm/century ocean rise. See:
The significance of large sediment supply, active tectonism, and eustasy on margin sequence development: Late Quaternary stratigraphy and evolution of the Ganges–Brahmaputra delta, S. L. Goodbred Jr. and S. A. Kuehlb
Sedimentary Geology, Volume 133, Issues 3-4, 15 June 2000, Pages 227-248
Note the Delta’s numerous changes in the last 10,000 years.
Holocene mangrove and coastal environmental changes in the western Ganga–Brahmaputra Delta, India, Arghya K. Hait, and Hermann Behling, Volume 18, Number 2 / March, 2009, pp 159-169 pdf
Anthony,
I endorse Gary Pearce’s request to ask some specialist to write a summary article.
Don’t forget “suggest”, as in, “The world might be coming to an end, and several computer models suggest that women and minoroties may be hardest hit.”
The title of this thread reminded me of a government issued memo from 1987:
“Order 1320.50 dated October 10, 1985, provides that all directives written by the AVS complex will use the mandatory words “shall” and “must” to direct and the permissive words “will” and “should” to guide.”
Think about it. I believe the warmers to be in possession of the memo.
This discussion (like the IPCC forecasts) seems limited to the melting of the ice sheets. Ice Sheet Dynamics aren’t included. (But the are included in Wikipedia.)
Since the surging nature of ice SHEET motion is a relatively recent discovery, and is still a long way from being entirely understood, no models have yet made a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of climate change. However, it is clear that climate change will act to destabilize ice sheets by a number of mechanisms.
Rising sea levels will reduce the stability of ice SHELVES, which have a key role in reducing glacial motion. Some Antarctic ice shelves are currently thinning by tens of metres per year, and the collapse of the Larsen B shelf was preceded by thinning of just 1 metre per year. Further, increased ocean temperatures of 1oC may lead to up to 10 metres per year of basal melting.
(…regional warming of 1.5oC…preceded the collapse of Larsen B…)
New York City was mentioned. It is vulnerable now to hurricane storm surges that could flood the tunnels underneath. They contain utility infrastructure, as well as the subways. The city was spared the last time only because the storm surge arrived at low tide.
A reminder that the science of ice shelves and sea levels is by no means settled comes with this advert currently on the met office website
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/recruitment/vacancies/001758.html
“A significant uncertainty in future projections of sea level is associated with dynamical changes in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and a key aspect of this uncertainty is the role of ice shelves, how they might respond to climate change, and the effect this could have on the ice sheets. The goal of the post is to contribute to improved scenarios of sea-level rise, which is an important aspect of climate change, with large coastal impacts.
Specific job purpose
Incorporate a model of ice shelves into the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model to develop a capability to make projections of rapid changes in ice sheets, thereby leading to improved scenarios of future sea-level rise.”
tonyb
Mike Lorrey (13:26:11) :
” Flanagan (05:27:24) :
You should add “former” in front of the Wilkins ice shelf.”
“I’m looking at satellite pics of the Wilkins Ice Sheet right now, it looks much larger now than a few weeks ago. Theres this funny effect that happens when the temperatures drop below 0 C, see, it crystalizes into this substance called ‘ice’. Even salty sea water freezes at -2 C. Winter conditions in Antarctica accelerate this process.”
Flanagan suffers from GWDS (Global Warming Derangement Syndrome). Unfortunately, facts are not one of the prescribed remedies for this. Don’t confuse him with logic and factual information.
Gary Pearse: “I believe…there will be a crescendo of these kinds of papers coming out, they will peak as world low temperature records increase… We have begun to see the first phase of this phenomenon in the bet hedging that is going on in present day papers…”
You imply that at some point in the future there will be a crescendo of hyperbolic climate change papers, but also that at the moment we are seeing climate scientists hedging their bets.
So are we heading for a crescendo of hyperbolic climate papers, or are we already seeing a softening of climate predictions?
@Just want truth
I think your words should be quote of the week.
You so much focus on what everyine should be focussing on:
“Where is the NASA that put men on the moon?”
Bravo
Re: Climate Heretic
Subduction issue. Yes! Nobody’s talking about that. What is Al Gore going to do about the subduction thing? Maybe California is going to get sucked into the magma someday. (Alas, Mrs. Pelosi won’t be around to emote about it so vividly ….)
But what’s Obama’s plan? Polar bears? Why are we talking about polar bears when parts of the earth are gettin’ sucked into the great abyss!
Whatever “they” do about it, however, expect higher taxes.
What is 2009 Arctic ice from 2008?
diverging
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
diverging
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
With Antarctic ice in a growing trend and Arctic ice also in a growing trend, well, we some day “could” have them meet at the Equator twice a year. This “would” bring us in to another Glaciation period. That “might” make Al Gore say he was wrong (don’t hold your breath).
“Maybe” I am joking. 😉
But seriously it looks like 2009 Arctic melt doesn’t have a chance of surpassing 2008 melt—no joke.
People who claim that contrary views are not allowed to be posted at Real Climate clearly do not read Real Climate.
*interesting* contrary points of view are allowed there. The same endless drivel that typifies WUWT isn’t because the moderators find it boring and unproductive.
Just as scientists running a blog on petroleum geology would before long find posts claiming that oil has an abiotic source boring and unproductive.
Reply: Comments at RC have been edited by moderators to change their meaning making dissenting views appear much weaker than the original comment and open to attack by their users or the moderators. That does not happen here. The dishonesty is documented and you have participated in it either wittingly or unwittingly. There is simply no sense of ethics there. Sure we get a lot of drivel here, but that is a consequence of a more open policy. ~ charles the moderator
Frank Lansner (15:30:25) :
Thanks Frank. But how about evanmjones gets in a week late with this from last week?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
It is the very model of a modern Maunder minimum
(I wanted to be plainer but I couldn’t find a synonym)
And thanks to modern media it’s not believed by anyone
The sun has done a bunk and we will freeze for a millennium
And so I’ll see you later; I am off for the equator
For is the very model of a modern Major-minimum
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
With what the data show both the Southern Hemisphere and Northern Hemisphere ice doing it fits.
“Would” “Will” “Could” “Might” “Maybe”….lack of compromise, means of not getting fired too soon, but anyway showing some residue of conscience by avoiding direct lying… or enough cowardship to satisfy friends and enemies.
Just Want Truth… (10:39:32) :
Where is the NASA that put men on the moon?
There is not a Wernher von Braun now. Those achievements are always the work of individuals.
I too used to support the publicly funded BBC here in the UK but as you can guess – no more. It is like listening to opinion through a group hugging “bong smoke” session at Green Peace. News reporting has well and truly left the building.
This article, which may have appeared here some time ago remains my favourite and would be hard to beat by any standards. Lets get things straight here… out of all the animals on the planet this is the species that we have the least effect on. As far as I can see the biggest real threat to EP’s is rough weather at chick hatching season which, lets face it, is a situation that could only be improved by AGW!
What we have here is Nintendo Science x Nintendo Science x a guess x another guess x what we think might sell. Bottom line is that ATM EP’s are doing just fine but lets not let that get in the way of a good headline and some Nintendo Science …
Emperor penguins face extinction !!
Do read it carefully if you have not seen it before – a real Gem – one to keep.
Francis,
Please help me, I’m trying to find where the “collapse” of the Larsen B Ice Shelf affected sea level.
http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/images/news/indic/msl/MSL_Serie_J1_Global_NoIB_RWT_PGR_Adjust.png
I feel guilty that I have lived so long without ever considering the key role that ice shelves play in “reducing glacial motion.” In the future, I too will vote to spend trillions of dollars in a bold effort to pretend that we are doing something to stop this very serious problem.
Oh I forgot … lets not fail to include some Disney in there .. for the Kids …
“whose long treks across Antarctic ice to mate have been immortalised by Hollywood”
You just can make it up!
Lucy Skywalker (05:32:22) : Personally I think it’s a brilliant idea…
Between you and Mother, that makes two people who think I’m brilliant. 🙂
Thanks Lucy.
“Steven Goddard (16:35:16) : In the future, I too will vote to spend trillions of dollars in a bold effort to pretend that we are doing something to stop this very serious problem.”
You’ve underestimated the amount. You need 3 more decimal places :
“….Andrei Illarionov, economic advisor to Russian President Putin, recently observed that costs to stabilize atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide during the next one hundred or so years could approach 1.8 quadrillion dollars (that’s the number 18 followed by 14 zeros),”
–The Telescope: Environment Issues On The Horizon*, December 2003 | Issue 4
* (A Publication of the Environment, Technology & Regulatory Affairs Division of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce)
Speaking about worries on impending catastrophes, I remember that back in 1960 a little old lady heard the speaker in the New York Planetarium say that the Earth will disappear in smoke about 50 billlion years when the sun converted into a brown dwarf. She rose and asked the speaker:
“How many years did you say, sir?”
-“Five billions years, madam.”
-Oh! I am relieved now. I thought you said five MILLION years.!”
It’s not just the Beeb.
Brits at their Best highlights political backlash by the UK government. Retribution on Michael Savage for featuring Viscount Monckton on the day of Al Gore’s sales pitch before congress.
The UK banned Savage from entering the country three days later, putting him on the terrorist watch list.
From the other direction, a day after the show and in unison with the UK government, Real Climate, and their various residuals (specificly Lambert at Sciblog), stepped up their attacks on M in order to mitigate the damage of one appearance on a free radio by Monckton.
Dates – check the dates.
I have serious doubt that a Watts Up type blog would be allowed to operate in the United Kingdom.
dhogaza (16:10:39) :
There have been far too many comments posted here by reasonable [and interesting] skeptics, telling of being arbitrarily censored and/or banned from RC to believe what you’re trying to sell here.
dhogaza,
Last year RC was having a discussion which had become focused on an article I had written, and half way through the discussion Gavin started editing and then completely censoring my posts.
The censored posts were not rude, off-topic or inappropriate – and didn’t even include my normal sarcastic tone.