From the Saudi Gazette
In one of the rare occasions, Saudis enjoy the snowfall in Al-Baha city south-west of Riyadh, Tuesday. Torrential rains pouring down on Al-Baha accompanied by gusty winds were accompanied by snow capping the mountains and covering the valley areas and the forests of Al-Zaraeb and Khayrah.
The last report we had like this in mid January said that the snow and cold was the “worst in 30 years“. In January, snow isn’t unexpected in Saudi Arabia, it has happened before. But in May?
While the report says “snow”, the possibility exists that it could also be small hail from thunderstorms.
Looks like it is warming up fast though. The forecast calls for 93 degrees. Just remember, weather is not climate.
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Weather is not climate, and at this rate, nothing ever will be, including climate.
You see, when weather meets the event horizon, the laws of meteorology and time cease to exist, and nothing, not even CO2, can escape a Climate Hole.
Although “weather is not climate”, I think it is important to recognize that “Climate is an accumulation of weather”. Weather events are necessary but not sufficient for climate change. You cannot have cooling climate without cooling weather events, although you can have cool weather without a cooling climate.
The important point is, that it is the accumulation of a large number of weather events that defines climate, so it is not entirely out of bounds to take note of extreme weather events as long as you understand that a single or isolated set of weather events does not necessarily indicate a change in climate — although they “may indicate a change in climate”. An accumulation of extreme weather events are required for climate to change.
The problem is how do you rigorously define when an accumulation of weather events amounts to an early indicator of a change in the basic climate for an area. To use a mathematical concept, when do they show that the slope of the curve is starting to change.
This is especially difficult when different disciplines use different definitions of what climate is. The Geologist sees a 30 year average of weather events as a meaningless data point in his/her million year / 100 thousand year view of climate.
Using a 30 year average as the measure of climate you will not know for sure that climate has changed until 15 years after the inflection point where the slope changed. Is there a more sensitive statistical test that will indicate a slope change has occurred even if you cannot determine by how much?
For the statistics guru’s here, would it be correct to say the following?
In an absolutely stable climate the number of regional high temperature records would roughly equal the number of low temperature records.
Likewise a cooling climate should show an imbalance with more low temperature records that high temperature records, and a warming climate would show an imbalance with a higher percentage of new high temperature records than low temperature records.
Larry
Pamela Gray (05:57:56) :
Think Climate Zone, not Climate Change. Think Weather Pattern Variation, not Weather is not Climate.
Brilliant explanation! We include Climate Zone for the classification of Biomes; equator zone, subtropical zone, temperate zone and polar zone. For example, Tropical Rainforest is situated mainly on the equator and subtropical zones, temperate forests on subtropical and midlatitude zones, Taiga on midlatitude zone and Tundra encircling the polar zone.
Every natural phenomenon can be described as a function, as a curve, and as all curves having critical points, points of inflexion (“tipping points” when cash enters into the equation 🙂 ). Well. This post Snow in Saudi Arabia in May? may be indicative we are approaching that critical point, or point of inflexion (not, of course any GWr. tipping point whatsoever). Perhaps some mathematician around may find such a point for us?
Adolfo Giurfa (07:50:14) :
Ron de Haan (06:41:55) : what is “weather” and what is “climate”
It is just a language issue. In spanish we have just one word for both: CLIMA=CLIMATE,WEATHER, the other word which it is used (rarely): TIEMPO, means weather but at the same time it means TIME.
So with due “time”, weather turns into “climate”…
Now, trouble begins when CLIMATE CHANGE appears . It seems to mean anything, any means to reach a political goal.
This is why from laymen to astrophysicists we are entangled in this CLIMATE issue, as believers or as non-believers alike, both feeling or guts’ guessing that something will affect our well being in the near future and that there is something out there threatening us from a hidden, dark and pernicious dimension”.
Muchos Gracias, Senior Adolfo
I wonder if the recent spike of the oil price ha sanything to do with the snowfall in Saudi Arabia?
I was an expatriate based at Abha Airport and lived a short distance away in Khamis Mushayt. I remember a few hailstorms during my stay there.
hareynolds (06:32:53) :”new reports…that LNG may be practically FREE because Qatar produces ~48 barrels of “natural gas liquids” along with each 1000 cubic feet of gas….Natural gas liquids are highly prized as they are “light fractions” which are easy to refine and have no BS&W….This will likely mean that the budding tight shale production in the USA (which has lately kept NG prices WAY down) will be under SEVERE pricing pressure….Qatar looks willing to sell us LNG at or around $3/mcf (equivalent to $18/bbl oil). I say buy buy buy.”
Either I don’t understand, or there’s something left out, here. Are you saying that the value of the NGL is high enough that the natural gas with it will be priced (low) as byproduct?
Still, there’s enough carbon in natural gas that the end users must be punished for trying to keep their homes warm with it.
No doubt, that is small hail. The article specifically mentions torrential downpours, which to me just screams thunderstorms and hail… especially considering it is supposed to be in the 90s the very next day. You can also see what’s called hail fog in the background of the photo between the two men. Also, as pointed out by somebody else, look at the way they are dressed. Doesn’t look cold to me that’s for sure. Deep accumulation of small hail can occur even when the temperature is in the 90s (as anyone who lives in the Great Plains can tell you). As for an earlier comment about being unable to make a “hailball,” well, that’s just not true at all. I’ve been able to make “”hailballs” on several occasions before (and have the pictures to prove it), even in the middle of summer. The title of this post is completely misleading. This photo in no way shows snow. It is a deep accumulation of small hail!
Seems hell is freezing over.
With regards to weather not being climate and to put “climate change” and temperature anomaly in perspective.
If I am eyeballing the temperature anomaly correctly I see about a 0.7 deg F anomaly for year 2000 from wikipedia. I just went through an exercise of checking actual temperatures for 2007 (which I used becuase it seemed like it had the most complete data set) and found that mean daily temperatures for Sacramento, California fluctuate sometimes beyond 10 F from day to day. (sure I could have used any location but since I’m closeby why not the Capital) Certainly these fluctuations (which occur both positive and negative I might add) would be noted as “weather events” so I went through and added 10 F to the mean temperatures of 25 days (that’s two days of hot weather events each month). Lo and behold poof we come up with a change in the average of 0.7 deg F for the year. Yes the equivalent of the dreaded anomaly which inspires thermaggedon. Conversely, 25 days being 10 F Colder in the daily mean reverses the yearly anomaly. Of course hot and cold events probably cancel each other out in a large enough sample size. So yes 25 days of 10 F “weather events” in any given year evidently is climate according to those watching the temperature anomaly. Yes I know I could have have just done this mathematically but I needed to see what kind of day to day temperature swings were “normal.” If you like Check 2007 data I pulled from http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/wraws/ncaF.html Of course this is a single location and wider ranges should drop the mean fluctuations etc but keep in mind that enough of these “isolated” events really can swing things.
APE
Here in Christchurch n.z we had our frist day this month when the air day temp was above a.v.g . So far this month we more than 2 c colder than a,v,g .
As an addendum to my earlier post and as Anthony et al has shown to the world it doesn’t have to be stacked weather events at all. Note that 250-1 deg F days due to the latex paint or micro climate due to station siting also easily accounts for the anomaly. Don’t forget the adjusted minus raw graph by NOAA. What a mess!
APE
Hello ,
i am Hani from Saudi Arabia Al Baha city
,this is interesting subject …But i agree with (DaveK)
mark (23:20:13) :
Here in Christchurch n.z we had our frist day this month when the air day temp was above a.v.g . So far this month we more than 2 c colder than a,v,g .
Hey Mark in Cheech,
I’m wintering in Antarctica. I’m pretty sure you know Christchurch is the gateway to the continent for those headed to Scott Base, McMurdo & South Pole. We’re fortunate to transit via Christchurch. It’s a beautiful city and very nice people.
Dave
Its a shame that Anthony Watts do this stuff again. It’s not the first time, nor the second, some time ago it was about snow in Quenia that was a hail storm too.
How can an meteorologist unknown the differences between hail ou snow ? How can’t a meteorologist like Anthony Watts check a simple weather map like 850hpa temperature to verify if snow was possible in this circumstances.
Reply: If Anthony finds it interesting, or thinks others might find it interesting, that is sufficient. ~dbstealey, moderator.