By David Shukman
Science and environment correspondent, BBC News
Half-way through their expedition to survey the Arctic sea-ice, British explorers have been jinxed by yet more technical problems and are resorting to old-fashioned techniques to carry out research.
On Day 44 of the trek, both a radar device meant to measure the ice thickness and a satellite communications unit to relay the data are still not working – despite being brought back to the UK for repairs and then delivered to the team last week.
As a result, the explorers are now drilling more sampling holes than planned, which means they are progressing more slowly than hoped.
It now looks much less likely that the team will reach its destination of the North Pole.
The radar system, known as Sprite and meant to be dragged over the ice making millions measurements, is now being carried on a sledge instead.
Pen Hadow, leading the Catlin Arctic Survey, describes losing the use of the equipment as frustrating but concedes that the hostile conditions have overwhelmed the technology.
“It’s never wise to imagine that either man or technology has the upper hand in the natural world,” he said. “It’s truly brutal at times out here on the Arctic Ocean and a constant reminder that Mother Nature always has the final say.”
The expedition was blighted in the first few weeks by temperatures well below minus 40 Celsius, the equivalent of minus 70 allowing for the wind chill.
The failures are blamed on problems with power supplies, either with batteries not working or with cables snapping in the cold.
The loss of the hi-tech equipment has focused attention on the data gathered by the tried-and-tested method of drilling through the ice by hand.
One-hundred-and-two holes have been dug so far and 1,100 measurements have been made of ice thickness, snow density and other features – data deemed vital by scientists evaluating the future of the Arctic sea-ice.
The latest findings show that virtually all the ice surveyed is what is called first-year ice, ice that only grew this past winter, as opposed to tougher multi-year ice which survives the warmth of summer.
Figures indicate an average ice thickness of 1.15-3.75m, much of which might be expected to melt between June and September.
Organisers in London insist the expedition’s data-gathering is still important for research – despite the setbacks – and describe reaching the Pole as “largely irrelevant”.
According to Simon Harris-Ward, operations director, “what matters most is gathering the maximum amount of data possible over a scientifically interesting route.”
Click on the new GISS temperature map (march) on red spot in Asia – and what you will find is that most of the stations has MISSING DATA for march (and only march) in this area.
Thus, the red spot is the result of data from very few stations.
Anthony: This warrants once again a blog post about GISS data reliability issues.
If you consider that normal sea water is about 1.88 molal and should freeze at about -3.5 C, the concentration of liquid water at -25 C should be about 13.4 molal. So if the water is not even freezing at -25 C, the concentration should be even higher.
So, obviously, the ice is not melting but certainly cracking, no?
… or the water is very warm! And this has nothing to do with atmosphereic heating du to CO2.
Jack Green: “Drilling holes in the ice equates to driving to El Paso from Houston and taking temperature readings out the window every so often.”
Perfect analogy, young Jack!
Robert (11:32:04) :
I nominate “Springtime in the Artic” for the title of the next Caitlin post.
How about “Springtime for High Latitudes” or just “Springtime for High-Lats” for short?
ice2020: It wouldn’t be surprising that the maximum was on 10/16/08 !!
There is ZERO, ZILCH, NADA, NO, scientific information being produced by this expedition
In short…
WORST VACATION EVER.
Holdren is at it again! He is still talking about geoengineering eventhough lots of people were against it last week.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10218083-54.html
But here is the contest: Find all the errors (except for Holdren himself) in the slide shown in the article.
Catlin expedition is beginning to make us feel sick…perhaps due to the waving thin ice.
I have a feeling Pen is delirious form the cold.
Tuesday, 14 Apr 2009 09:51
The Arctic isn’t a place for vibrant colours. Day after day, vast expanses of pale light, white snow and ice-scapes and an endless blue sky stretch ahead of the three explorers as they trudge onwards. Expedition leader Pen Hadow is puzzled, therefore, by having witnessed a splash of bright yellow to cheer up the beautiful but unrelentingly pale palate.
Twice, he’s spotted an egg yolk-coloured blur of colour, about the size and shape of a broad bean, buried on an ice face.
Could this be what he sees? “The sun shining through ice.
“I’ve never seen anything like it before on a previous expedition and I’m stumped”, he says. “It’s like a very bright jewel, hidden in the glass case of the ice, unreachable”.
At first Hadow thought he was looking at animal urine, but he’s since dismissed the idea. “It’s too bright a yellow and I can’t see how an animal could have deposited it a metre up an ice wall!” he reasons. He asked photographer Martin Hartley to photograph the jewel-like enigma in the hope that a marine-biologist may be able to shed light on what he’s seen.
I’ve seen many pictures of the adventurers climbing over ice mountains, yet they’d have us believe the ice is less than 4 meters thick on average. Considering the false biometric data, hand warmers attached to temperature sensors and apparently selective ice boring sites, what incentive do we have to believe anything we hear from this expedition? Do we even have evidence that their reported positions are accurate?
OOPS, my bad.
“The sun shining through ice”
Ray (13:17:14) : Search for the carbon shares trading companies and you will find behind these …I can’ t meddle more into, I am a foreigner you know.
However it is all about making money out of nothing…It’s magic!
We, the fool ones, worrying about… science!
oooooo Those silly guys ooooo! LOL
Do they even measure the temperature of the water under the ice after they drilled a hole?
Anthony, I believe you now have your next quote of the week . . or maybe the year! “It’s never wise to imagine that either man or technology has the upper hand in the natural world.”
According to GISS, the Aral Sea was +4.8C above normal in March, 2009. (Have to get beachfront property there and I hear there is a lot of new beach there.)
Anyone have access to the Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazahkstan March temps?
at least, the catlin arctic survey is a nice example of the quality of climate science presented by the BBC.
Heinzz [12:17:01]
They are moving in a south-easterly direction.
Anthony
As you have flagged before on this topic, this entire story has all the making of a hoax. An hour ago, the weather conditions were given as -25C and “sleet” [sic]. Where I come from sleet is a very heavy wet snow. At -25C?
A few minutes ago the weather had changed and was given as -24C and overcast.
As with their purported “bio” data, there are holes in this story big enough to drive an eighteen wheel truck trough without hitting anything.
Here’s a challenge for the UK’s TOP GEAR team-beat Hadow to the pole. They previously successfully reached the north pole in a modified Hilux SUV. Towing a GPR behind shouldn’t pose a major problem. Hadow’s penchant for self flagallation deserves to be treated for what it is-a publicity stunt.
But…“He who laughs last laughs better”
The Sun
I’m a recent regular visitor to your excellent commentary on AGW, and may have missed earlier references to this, but I thought it may be of interest, found on Wikipedia under Global Warming Controversy:
“A recent peer-reviewed article has assessed the performance of global climate models by comparing their outputs to historical time series on the local level and concludes “At the annual and the climatic (30-year) scales, GCM interpolated series are irrelevant to reality.:” (http://www.itia.ntua.gr/getfile/864/2/documents/2008HSJClimPredictions.pdf).
I note that a common criticism levelled by warmists is the lack of peer-reviewed articles casting doubt on their assertions – do you think they will take any notice of this?
“The latest findings show that virtually all the ice surveyed is what is called first-year ice, ice that only grew this past winter, as opposed to tougher multi-year ice which survives the warmth of summer.”
Is this suprising. You start from the edge and walk towards the centre. The youngest ice will be at the edges – so of course your going to find the young ice first.
The expedition actually has tremendous value.
Guardian writers now know that the Arctic is cold and full of ice. A new concept for them.
Many of you who post here are intelligent, and it surprises me that you haven’t figured out what is the real, covert purpose of this expedition.
Think: 10 times as many holes in the ice as originally planned,
traveling only over thin ice.
It’s obvious to me–They are drilling holes to sink the ice!! :~P