By David Shukman
Science and environment correspondent, BBC News
Half-way through their expedition to survey the Arctic sea-ice, British explorers have been jinxed by yet more technical problems and are resorting to old-fashioned techniques to carry out research.
On Day 44 of the trek, both a radar device meant to measure the ice thickness and a satellite communications unit to relay the data are still not working – despite being brought back to the UK for repairs and then delivered to the team last week.
As a result, the explorers are now drilling more sampling holes than planned, which means they are progressing more slowly than hoped.
It now looks much less likely that the team will reach its destination of the North Pole.
The radar system, known as Sprite and meant to be dragged over the ice making millions measurements, is now being carried on a sledge instead.
Pen Hadow, leading the Catlin Arctic Survey, describes losing the use of the equipment as frustrating but concedes that the hostile conditions have overwhelmed the technology.
“It’s never wise to imagine that either man or technology has the upper hand in the natural world,” he said. “It’s truly brutal at times out here on the Arctic Ocean and a constant reminder that Mother Nature always has the final say.”
The expedition was blighted in the first few weeks by temperatures well below minus 40 Celsius, the equivalent of minus 70 allowing for the wind chill.
The failures are blamed on problems with power supplies, either with batteries not working or with cables snapping in the cold.
The loss of the hi-tech equipment has focused attention on the data gathered by the tried-and-tested method of drilling through the ice by hand.
One-hundred-and-two holes have been dug so far and 1,100 measurements have been made of ice thickness, snow density and other features – data deemed vital by scientists evaluating the future of the Arctic sea-ice.
The latest findings show that virtually all the ice surveyed is what is called first-year ice, ice that only grew this past winter, as opposed to tougher multi-year ice which survives the warmth of summer.
Figures indicate an average ice thickness of 1.15-3.75m, much of which might be expected to melt between June and September.
Organisers in London insist the expedition’s data-gathering is still important for research – despite the setbacks – and describe reaching the Pole as “largely irrelevant”.
According to Simon Harris-Ward, operations director, “what matters most is gathering the maximum amount of data possible over a scientifically interesting route.”
They could have used a helicopter and just leap frogged their way to do this in a few days. This is crazy people.
if they had been on time they could have participated:
http://www.npmarathon.com/
There is an easy fix for the crumbling sea ice.
Ice-nine is a more stable polymorph of water than common ice (Ice Ih) which instead of melting at 0° Celsius (32° Fahrenheit), melts at 45.8°C (114.4°F). When it comes into contact with liquid water below 45.8°C (which is thus effectively supercooled), it acts as a seed crystal, and causes the solidification (freezing) of the entire body of water which quickly crystallizes as ice-nine.
With all the oceans frozen, transportation becomes much cheaper and less hazardous. Of course I haven’t thought this all the way through, but I bet Holdren would find this idea compelling. Of course we could still flood the atmosphere with particulates.
These are good news but I am afraid that while Mother Nature has the final say right now, Pen Hadow may return to his house – or to Copenhagen – and using the fancy local air-conditioning systems, he will talk to Al Gore or another apostle of arrogance and “realize” – once again – that the man-made CO2 production has the final say about the weather in the whole world and the United Nations and cap-and-trade systems have to replace another man (the SUV man) in his role to control the weather and piss on Mother Nature who is just an irrelevant bitch.
Because there are good reasons to be afraid of this lack of Hadow’s integrity, it might indeed be better if Mother Nature had the final say about the question whether these people deserve to survive. If Darwin was right, the answer should probably be No but I will leave the final decision to Mother Nature.
Meanwhile, global sea ice extent is approaching 1 million sq. km. above the 1979-2000 mean:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
Pen come home. You are making the Brits look stupid.
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I still reckon a nuclear sub could measure the thickness of the entire Arctic ice cap in a couple of weeks. It is clear that this is a media driven event to highlight AGW. However, it is about as useful as the AGW protest that almost got snowed off…
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/03/02/shiver-global-warming-protest-frozen-massive-snowfall/
P.S. Here are some fellow ‘AGW denial’ travelers:
Here is an article by David Bellamy. For those in the US and elsewhere, David Bellamy used to be the UK media’s favourite naturalist – before he became a heretic. I presume he now wears sackcloth and carries a bell to alert people of his imminent arrival…
http://nzclimatescience.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=58&Itemid=1
Here is another by James Lovelock, the originator of the Gaia theory. Strangely Lovelock is also an AGW denier – although he thinks that mother nature has got it in for us anyway, whatever we do.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article5682887.ece
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article5733427.ece
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ice2020 (08:43:43) Quite interesting. It would be great if Anthony could post it in WUWT. It seems that we are losing a complete solar cycle!
I disagree with everyone about this being a waste of time. Serendipity is greatest joy for anyone doing scientific research. They may not realize it themselves but they are finding that the artic is quite a bit colder than they had expected even for late winter/early spring. Not only that, they have broadly publicized these findings. They may put all the spin on it that they want but I bet the people in the UK, after suffering through the coldest winter in 18 years (after climate models predicted a warming than normal one) and watching this team suffer through colder than expected temperatures in this artic expedition are getting a very good lessons in the expertise of the climate change alarmist community.
REPLY: I agree. The constant reports of -30 to -40 C cold helps dispel the idea that the ice is “melting in place” and opens the door for other more rational explanations like shifts in wind patterns driving sea ice southward where it melts. See the previous post with the sea ice animation from 2007/2008 – Anthony
“Gary Pearse (09:22:38) :
As expected from the hints and rationalizations (ice north of 85 all cracked and open water!!) and preponderance of attention on problems, discomfort, and failures of poorly designed tech (all due to the unexpected extreme cold) rather than the science. ”
Well most of these guys are 87N; there is one group who are not doing so well.
http://www.thepoles.com/news.php?id=18199
These guys are getting on with it.
They did not have time to “enjoy their Easter Sunday treats of Cadbury’s mini eggs and pork scratchings” after their bacon sandwiches.
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/from_the_ice.aspx
Checkout the ice thickness in the photo at the top of this article. What are the odds that the Catlin survey team surveyed the ice thickness there?
Bueller?…. Bueller?… Anyone?…
Bill Marsh (09:09:09) :
“ROFL, and the ’spin’ commences.
102 holes covering 241KM? That’s one hole every 2km, doesn’t seem to be very good coverage to me. Not sure what conclusions you can draw from this that you can’t looking at Cryosphere.”
Given the large sums of money that have been spent on this boondoggle, could someone find out how much money was spent per hole? I’m sure it was money well-spent for the data delivered to the scientific community…
I wonder how much they made on sponsorships and how much they will make in the future through speaking engagements as a result of this publicity stunt?
I see it has warmed about 10 degrees at the pole over the last week. It was -24C at 1600Z today.
Any real science team would certainly use snowmobiles to treck as fast as possible. And if they are concerned about pollution they could always use hydrogen powered snowmobiles.
The Catlin group is putting up a show by dragging by foot/skii the heavy equipment. Come on!!! Is that the modern version of The Greek Mythology of Sisyphus?
I just checked their website a noticed that the weather today is -25C with sunshine and showers???
AnonyMoose (10:30:05) :
They keep showing pictures of them crossing piles of ice which look taller than two meters. Is the water also taller there, so the ice is only two meters thick where they’re dragging their stuff up and down?
______________________
LOL. True. Those are actually inverted icebergs. This phenomenon occurs as a response to Global Warming when the iceberg is in its ‘death throes’. It goes belly up.
NASA GISS data is out.
March anomaly is 0.47°C above normal.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/work/gistemp/NMAPS/tmp_GHCN_GISS_HR2SST_1200km_Anom03_2009_2009_1951_1980/GHCN_GISS_HR2SST_1200km_Anom03_2009_2009_1951_1980.gif
I’m still trying to figure out how the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest was 1-2°C above normal when we have this from NOAA…
Bismarck, ND March temp anomaly: -8.2°F
Dickinson, ND …: -8.1°F
Minot, ND …: -8.1°F
Grand Forks, ND…: -4.2°F
Fargo, ND …: -3.1°F
Duluth, MN …: -0.8°F
St. Cloud, MN …: -0.9°F
Aberdeen, SD …: -4.1°F
Rapid City, SD …: -2.0°F
Also interesting (though I don’t have the time to go through it right now) is Canada.
Here’s a link for the Canadian March climate summary for selected stations.
http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/prods_servs/cdn_climate_summary_report_e.cfm?intMonth=3&intYear=2009&txtFormat=html&btnSubmit=Submit
While much of Canada is shown as being below normal (by 1-2°C), many stations across British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are showing monthly anomalies in the 3-6°C below normal range.
I know GISS uses a different baseline period but I seriously doubt that their baseline average is 2-3°C colder than the 1971-2000 average.
I nominate “Springtime in the Artic” for the title of the next Caitlin post.
David Porter (10:49:15) :
Pen come home. You are making the Brits look stupid.
I thought that was what the BBC and the Grauniad were for. Frankly, we’ve got people who are much more stupid than Hadow, Monbiot being just one of them.
None of the BBC news about the radar problems is in the Catlin blog. It makes me wonder what other significant problems are not being recorded in the blog. Public blog, secret expedition? What are they afraid of? Being mocked as irrelevant?
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/assets/downloads/Ice_Report_14_4_09.pdf is mildly interesting. It has a picture of Pen with an oversized drill (is he actually using that?) but has very little hard data.
Can I suggest that the expedition takes note of the First Law of Holes ?
When you find yourself in a hole it is in your personal best interest to stop digging.
GISS is updated +47, higer than feb, and lower than Jan
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. Just sent the same message to Catlin offices. What a supreme waste of time and money. Absolutely pathetic.
Tom Woods (11:31:11) :
> NASA GISS data is out.
> March anomaly is 0.47°C above normal.
Above average – no one knows what normal is! 🙂