By David Shukman
Science and environment correspondent, BBC News
Half-way through their expedition to survey the Arctic sea-ice, British explorers have been jinxed by yet more technical problems and are resorting to old-fashioned techniques to carry out research.
On Day 44 of the trek, both a radar device meant to measure the ice thickness and a satellite communications unit to relay the data are still not working – despite being brought back to the UK for repairs and then delivered to the team last week.
As a result, the explorers are now drilling more sampling holes than planned, which means they are progressing more slowly than hoped.
It now looks much less likely that the team will reach its destination of the North Pole.
The radar system, known as Sprite and meant to be dragged over the ice making millions measurements, is now being carried on a sledge instead.
Pen Hadow, leading the Catlin Arctic Survey, describes losing the use of the equipment as frustrating but concedes that the hostile conditions have overwhelmed the technology.
“It’s never wise to imagine that either man or technology has the upper hand in the natural world,” he said. “It’s truly brutal at times out here on the Arctic Ocean and a constant reminder that Mother Nature always has the final say.”
The expedition was blighted in the first few weeks by temperatures well below minus 40 Celsius, the equivalent of minus 70 allowing for the wind chill.
The failures are blamed on problems with power supplies, either with batteries not working or with cables snapping in the cold.
The loss of the hi-tech equipment has focused attention on the data gathered by the tried-and-tested method of drilling through the ice by hand.
One-hundred-and-two holes have been dug so far and 1,100 measurements have been made of ice thickness, snow density and other features – data deemed vital by scientists evaluating the future of the Arctic sea-ice.
The latest findings show that virtually all the ice surveyed is what is called first-year ice, ice that only grew this past winter, as opposed to tougher multi-year ice which survives the warmth of summer.
Figures indicate an average ice thickness of 1.15-3.75m, much of which might be expected to melt between June and September.
Organisers in London insist the expedition’s data-gathering is still important for research – despite the setbacks – and describe reaching the Pole as “largely irrelevant”.
According to Simon Harris-Ward, operations director, “what matters most is gathering the maximum amount of data possible over a scientifically interesting route.”
What more evidence that nature rules man do you want?
Meanwhile, according to the NSIDC plot, arctic sea ice extent is only 400k sq. km. short of the 1979-2000 average. It could catch completely up by the time the Catlin team knocks off for the year.
Not a banner year to be trying this PR stunt, eh?
Once again the folks at WUWT call it and it comes to pass…not the least bit surprised. Catlin spin machine trying to weave a silk purse, to no avail. Kudos to Anthony, moderators, and contributors for shining a light in the fog (or notable lack thereof, in this particular case.) Your impact on the public discussion is real and growing. Thanks for all. -JG
AHAHA! Best “Quote of the Week” yet!
“It’s never wise to imagine that either man or technology has the upper hand in the natural world,” he said. “It’s truly brutal at times out here on the Arctic Ocean and a constant reminder that Mother Nature always has the final say.”
Famous last words of the AWG movement, I wish!
I imagine it’s truly brutal over about 99.9% of the natural world without cooperative civilization, modern conveniences and power. Perhaps a Pacific island is survivable, where one can live off fish and coconuts, sans clothing.
How is it that they can tell “that virtually all the ice surveyed is what is called first-year ice, ice that only grew this past winter, as opposed to tougher multi-year ice”?
The midpoint of the ‘average 1.15-3.75’ is 2.45. Isn’t that second year ice? And hadn’t they drilled 114 holes last time they reported? Due dilegence needed here
What is “a scientifically interesting route”? What considerations went into the design of the path—ease of passage, likelihood of thickest ice, probability of thinnest ice? How will the data be fact checked?
I recall posts on this site about surface station recorders choosing not to go out in super cold conditions to get actual readings and choosing to estimate instead. Will the Catlin group really drill through 3 meters of solid ice day after day by hand? Considering the prejudice embedded in the Expedition from the start, can their data be trusted?
And the arctic ice is shrinking 2.7% per decade
It’s on the Beeb so its official
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7987354.stm
Hedging their bets though:
Arctic ice reached a larger maximum area this winter than in the last few years, scientists say, but the long-term trend still shows it declining
Apologies I missed this on the Beeb piece on my first read through
“Forecasts of the date by which Arctic summers will be ice-free range from five years to several decades, with natural climatic cycles playing an important role”
So natural climatic cycles play an important role? Can they quantify that? 98% AGW/2% natural?
I hope they’ve been filling in all the little holes they’ve been drilling. Polar bears could sprain their ankles in them.
“Take only measurements, leave only snowshoe prints.”
Bill Marsh, flyfisher
I posted previously on the fact that 48 of the 102 holes were drilled at or around the site of thier first resupply. A nice satellite image of this is available on the Catlin site. The area was surrounded by first year and re-frozen ice as Mr. Shukman states this in his article. The team shot the gap between two chunks of multi-year ice altering thier start point along 140 degrees to one starting at 129 degrees.
If you have ever gone ice fishing, 2.5m is a long way to drill by hand.
“largely irrelevant” – sounds like the Douglas Adams description of earth: ” mostly harmless”
A few thoughts:
Re: the Sprite radar. As best I can tell, it’s homemade. Amateurs really have no clue about designing and testing for extreme climate.
“Figures indicate an average ice thickness of 1.15-3.75m…” Some mathematically illiterate person needs to learn the definition of average. But it will be interesting to see the data. If the range is 1.15-3.75, isn’t it all, technically, multi-year ice (d > 1m)?
“…much of which might be expected to melt between June and September.” Then again, it might be expected to remain frozen. Did they place any beacons that might allow us to accurately track the “melting?” Or will they just present the unsubstantiated assertion?
Just a thought that perhaps the electronic data wasn’t showing the proper thinning so it was shut down “due to not working properly.” This experience is a good example of how temperature anomolies of a few degrees on the + side don’t really change the conditions up there.
And in the last comment I see, P Folkens asks my question. What is “a scientifically interesting route” today has drifted off to some other route tomorrow. And I like the term “jinxed”, as if it’s some malevolent luck at work here. But I can see how diving into an empty pool would just be the tough breaks.
Well… If the route they’ve walked isn’t ice free come September, then there is proof of a great failure of AGW theory.
Because of the statements now done about the ice thicknes and it’s consequences already this year – they have no way of explaining this away.
We must follow this up.
layne said :
Ah if only it were truly random. Instead, as other commenters have indicated, the route taken and points chosen for samples will have strongly influenced the readings.
In other words what little data they have is worthless.
Second most failing arctic expedition this century.
Which of these would do the worst job of measuring Arctic ice thickness?
a) Jeremy Clarkson in an SUV fitted with a radar
b) Marathon runners fitted with radars
c) Polar bears fitted with radars
d) US Navy buoys
e) Satellites
f) Polar bears fitted with radars
g) Submarines fitted with radars
h) The Catlin Arctic Survey
Send your answer on the back of an emailed postcard.
Who knew the “Gore Effect” could have such far reaching consequences? If The Goracle keeps pontificating, these folks are doomed! More blood on Al’s hands….
I really wish they would stop referring to what they are doing as scientific data collection. Their route could not be reasonably considered a transect. What is their sampling protocol? What is their basis for comparison when the ice sampled may not have existed last year (and certainly not at the same lat/long) and will have migrated or melted by next year? I can go count the bubbles in my fish tank for the next forty days and come up with as much “evidence” as they are generating.
Robert van der Veeke (09:18:56) :
Still, it does not melt you numbskull, it will break up due to currents and windpatterns, it will only start to melt when it drifts out of the artic ocean.
Sure some of the ice will melt in that way, some of it will melt in situ. This data shows melting occurring in the Arctic Ocean.
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/images/iAOOS1a.gif
flyfisher (09:34:38) :
How is it that they can tell “that virtually all the ice surveyed is what is called first-year ice, ice that only grew this past winter, as opposed to tougher multi-year ice”?
Well they could taste it.
Tamara (10:22:48) :
I really wish they would stop referring to what they are doing as scientific data collection. Their route could not be reasonably considered a transect. What is their sampling protocol? What is their basis for comparison when the ice sampled may not have existed last year (and certainly not at the same lat/long) and will have migrated or melted by next year? I can go count the bubbles in my fish tank for the next forty days and come up with as much “evidence” as they are generating.
Similar problems exist for the US Army buoys and the Russian NP stations.
They keep showing pictures of them crossing piles of ice which look taller than two meters. Is the water also taller there, so the ice is only two meters thick where they’re dragging their stuff up and down?
“Catlin Survey” — a new phrase enters the lexicon to go with its synonyms: fiasco, boondoggle, fool’s errand, wild goose chase.