UPDATES WE HAVE UPDATES: 8 updates to this story have been posted – see below the “read the rest of this entry” line. It appears most if not all of the technology in the expedition has failed early on and the Catlin website never made any mention of this fact until a BBC article appeared today. They have disclaimers up now on the Catlin website, and the flat XML data file used to feed the biometrics page has been removed from the web page developers website.
Something quite odd is going on at the Catlin Arctic Survey website at: http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/
It appears that they are presenting recycled data from the biotelemetry sensors on the team. The “live from the ice” biotelemetry data for each team member is presented here:
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx
Here is a screencap of what the biotelemetry section of that webpage looks like:
click for full sized image
A WUWT commenter posted this:
karl heuer (07:40:46) :
The “Live from the Ice” biotelemetry is definitely not live:
When the data loads,
Pen Hadow core temp starts at 33.25 C every time the page loads, then increments up to 33.57, 33.64, 33.7, 33.75
every time, I have refreshed, cleared temp files and rebooted — still the same
WUWT commenter “hotrod” did his own check:
I just tried it looking at Pen Haddow’s pulse rate — Hmmm what are the odds that 32 consecutive pulse rate measurements would be identical?
Yes looks like the bio metric data is just white was to make their site look nifty, and has absolutely no value at all — perhaps they already have all their ice measurements in the can too?
91
91.3
93.9
95.1
93.5
88.5
85
87.6
91.2
94.5
101.3
106.6
105.9
102
96.6
92.9
87.2
85.1
79.9
80.7
80.2
85.9
89.9
96.2
105.9
116.7
113.9
103.4
90.8
83.4
82.1
82.4
===========
91
91.3
93.9
95.1
93.5
88.5
85
87.6
91.2
94.5
101.3
106.6
105.9
102
96.6
92.9
87.2
85.1
79.9
80.7
80.2
85.9
89.9
96.2
105.9
116.7
113.9
103.4
90.8
83.4
82.1
82.4
==================
Larry
And I also double checked that with my own observations, writing down each datapoint from a “clean refresh” of the web page as shown below:
Ann Daniels Heartbeat
89.7
89.6
87.4
95.6
104.4
94.5
85.5
98.1
123.1
122.9
109.8
106.6
108.7
113.9
102.1
105.1
104.7
96.3
109.6
109
115
117.8
109.6
105.9
110.8
111.1
101.5
104.7
121.6
137.3
142.5
130
132.4
149.6
142.4
122.4
129.5
116.3
107.5
113.3
102.3
100.7
110.3
124.9
130.1
143.1
163.7
164.7
142.8
118
108.8
102.7
96.3
94.7
101.7
117.4
119
98.8
Martin Hartley Heartbeat
113
114.3
113.3
109.5
109.4
108.5
105.8
107.8
106.6
104.1
106.6
108.9
109.1
110.1
110.6
108.2
102.2
97.2
96.4
98.2
99.9
102
99.1
100.7
106.8
107.3
108.6
107.2
100.9
103.8
107.4
105.1
105.9
Ann Core temp
37.32
37.26
37.22
37.2
37.18
37.17
37.15
37.16
37.17
37.19
37.2
37.21
37.22
37.23
37.26
37.27
37.29
37.3
Martin Core Temp
37.29
37.25
37.24
37.25
37.23
37.21
37.2
37.21
37.22
37.2
37.21
37.2
37.19
37.2
37.21
37.2
37.19
37.2
37.19
37.18
37.19
I didn’t bother to check any more.
Indeed, you can watch these exact same sequences of numbers on all the sensors listed above repeat exactly in the sequence of numbers shown above immediately after a web page refresh.
And this is “live from the ice”?
So I thought to myself “maybe they only download telemetry data every couple of hours”? So maybe it was “near-live”.
That would explain the page refresh behavior. Fortunately, there was a way on the Catlin website to check the past data using the data selector on the biotelemetry page as shown below:
To my surprise, it made no difference. Any day I selected showed the exact same telemetry data!
There’s no mention of this on their website that I can find.
Something else bothers me: trailing zero deletion.
Notice this data sequence:
Martin Core Temp
37.29
37.25
37.24
37.25
37.23
37.21
37.2
37.21
37.22
37.2
37.21
37.2
37.19
37.2
37.21
37.2
37.19
37.2
37.19
37.18
37.19
Notice how the zero is dropped from 37.2? Most data loggers don’t behave that way when logging data, but anyone familiar with a Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet knows of this behavior.
I welcome all readers to repeat the exercise I just did with the data, and I welcome any plausible explanations for what I have observed that would explain this repeating data pattern.
The biotelemetry equipment (used by the team) manufacturer webpage shows a remote monitoring application:
Fig 1. Sensor Application Diagram
The Catlin web page itself says this about the biotelemetry:
And the caveat posted at the bottom of the “live from the ice” web page says this:
The data produced by the Equivital System is provided for general information only and is not intended for medical analysis within the scope of the Catlin Arctic Survey. As such, it will be analysed for general research purposes only and will not be viewed or utilised as a tool for the diagnosis or identification of the medical condition of the expedition team. This has been agreed by all members of the expedition team.
Nothing about it being “not live” or broken is stated, only that we shouldn’t use it for medical analysis.
So we have:
- repeating data on all heatbeats
- repeating data on all core temperatures
- repeating data on the three dates I checked available from the archive data selector
- no notice of the telemetry being down
- no notice of it not being “live”
- status: “operational” for all three team members
- UPDATE: I also checked from another computer in my office that had never visited the website to eliminate the possibility of some web browser cache problem – same results
What could one conclude from that? Maybe this is just an elaborate demo page? But why then the “live from the ice” as the name of the page in the URL?
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx
If it is not live, why not simply say so?
If my observations are correct, the question then is : if they are this sloppy about what data they present to the world on their “live” web page, what does that say about integrity of any other data they may gather? Surely they know the whole world is watching the condition of the three intrepid ice explorers with great concern?
Let’s give them the benefit of the doubt, it could be a technical glitch of some sorts, but I’ll be interested to see what the explanation for this is.
UPDATE: WUWT commenter “sandy” offer this bit of flash debugging which sheds some light on the issue.
Those numbers are built into the flash swf. There is no attempt to contact the server to update the .swf.
For the technical: A swf that was updating real time would have to contact the server for the latest data. It would do this using a XMLHTTPRequest object which is the wizardry behind AJAX, or it would attempt to open a direct socket which generally gets the browser squawking.
My firefox firebug developer add-on can detect no attempt to contact the server.
This swf was never designed to be able to get live data.
(and it is a bugger to get right)
If, on seeing the .fla, this swf came from, I am wrong, I’ll be happy to retract.
But until then my accusation of deliberate deception stands.
Anybody care to verify this?
UPDATE2: It gets even stranger. Why would anyone strap a “hand warmer” to a device designed to measure temperature? (h/t to Edward Mitchell)
Source of this image: http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/technology_seacat
UPDATE3: The root data file for Catlin biometric data has been located by WUWT reader Shawn F..
| Shawn F. |
Submitted on 2009/04/08 at 8:59pm
|
Well, I hope my comment is useful but in my analysis of the biofeedback html I am finding that the swf (the flash component of the page) is not the requester of the data but rather consumes ajax information via javascript. Therefore, it could be possible that the page is requesting live data from another site and feeding it to the swf via javascript (although I have already checked that possibility and the data is coming from off site, but it appears to be “canned” data).
I believe I have verified that the following are the calls being made from the page per “explorer”:
http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=pen
http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=ann
http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=martin
You can verify the data without the querystring: http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php for the total xml file.
I have saved a copy of this xml and will check to see if it changes.
I appreciate the good people here who drive out the corruption to truth and science. This site is preserving my sanity!
REPLY: Thank you Shawn, this appears to be the root data. I’ve loaded the http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php file and it appears to indeed be hard coded. For those just joining this discussion, the Catlin website has a footer at the bottom of each page that identifies the website developer:
Produced by http://www.indigopapa.com
And that is where the XML data file requested by the flash used to drive the “biometrics” page comes from. I suppose it is possible that this data file would be regularly updated, but the fact that they have a date selector on the biometrics web page that does nothing, and calls this same file again and again points to a hard wiring of this data.
WUWT readers, especially those with flash and XML experience, please weigh in and point out anything you see that either supports or refutes this conjecture. – Anthony
UPDATE4: WUWT reader Pkatt points out that the leader of the survey required an Arctic extraction in 2003 that in the words of one rescuer “put lives at risk” and was “a bit stupid”
Story here at the UK independent
UPDATE 5: The Catlin live biometrics web page went blank for awhile, and this note appeared:
Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.
UPDATE6: The disclaimer message on Catlin live biometrics web page now says:
Please note the above data was collected over a 12 hour period on March 8th. This gives us a fair representation of how the ice team bodies are coping in the incessant cold.
The biotelemetry data is captured using Equivital monitoring units, usually used by the military, first responders, emergency services and those operating in high risk and remote locations. They have been specifically designed to operate in a wide range of environments. The units have stood up extremely well so far to the rigours of extended polar travel, but some of the data does require explanation.
Yes, it does.
UPDATE7: The XML source data file used to originally feed the biotelemetry web page flash display has been removed and replaced with a generic logo of the developer/ website company for the Catlin Expedition:
http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php no longer works. This is the page that comes up now:
But I saved the XML data that used to be there and it is posted below:
<stats>
−
<ann>
<ecg max=”1905″ 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UPDATE8: A story has now appeared in the BBC that says they may not have any data from their towed sled ice radar unit (known as SPRITE) at all:
Arctic team: London, we have a problem from the BBC
A portable radar device, known as Sprite, designed to make millions of measurements of the ice thickness, has been dogged by breakdowns and uncertainties.
Another instrument, SeaCat, meant to measure the temperature and salinity of the water beneath the ice-cap, has malfunctioned as well.
The expedition’s organisers insist that other research – such as regular drilling through the ice – has meanwhile been carried out successfully.
It gets curiouser and curiouser.
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Someone asked about the trees on the frozen jacket video.. I am not positive that is what they are, but look for yourself. Here is a snapshot pointing out where to look. When he bumps the tent at 1:19 or 1:20 it opens up and it looks like the leafless crown of a tree through the crack in the tent flaps. And again, are they really in such a leaky tent in the Arctic?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7962021.stm
http://s693.photobucket.com/albums/vv299/665345/
Ric:
I watched the drop off video and they are flying in light conditions consistent with your sun calculations. After watching some youtube videos of Kenn Borek landings “these pilots are really good”. I searched for any videos and or pictures that KBA people may have posted recently independent of the Catlin Web Propaganda web site. No luck. I guess I could search on pilot names and see if they have any facebook sites. That’s next.
I wonder if the US Navy is near the Catlin Expedition right now. It’s not clear when the photo was taken. I’m not sure this is important but it is cool and in the arctic recently.
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/46830,features,pic-of-the-day-submarine-breaks-arctic-ice
And more data here about the study: Anthony remove my last post it’s incomplete.
http://thetension.blogspot.com/2009/03/photo-essay-ice-exercise-icex-2009.html
REPLY: It is not obvious what post you are referring to, I can’t guess, so I’m leaving all posts warts and all. – A
Ray B: “Here is a snapshot pointing out where to look.”
No, that is more likely to be the tail of an elephant. I’ve seen it several times!
I live in the Canadian Arctic and the Catlin Expedition is legit…well by legit I mean they are actually on the ice in the Arctic Ocean. That being said the scientific community up here (the real scientists) refer to them as Edu-Tainers. The website is all the proof of the poof you need. In the end of the day, these guys (and gal) are really just adventures under the guise of research. When they do not reach their goal, they can blame global warming for their ultimate failure (talk about cover your ass when spending a couple of million of Catlin’s money). They just want bragging rights to say they were the first to reach the pole from a position on the Arctic Ocean as opposed to the usual route from Ward Hunt Island on the top of Ellesmere Island. So this has nothing to do with research, it;s all about 15 minutes of fame, and having their NASCAR winter jumpsuits pay for them to do it.
Jack Green (07:47:09) :
“I wonder if the US Navy is near the Catlin Expedition right now. It’s not clear when the photo was taken. I’m not sure this is important but it is cool and in the arctic recently.”
Not if Catlin is where they claim, around 400 miles from the Pole. From Prudhoe to the Pole is over a thousand miles, 200 less would place the sub around 800 miles from the Pole. They would be around 400 miles from Catlin.
“ICEX is a two-week training exercise about 200 miles from the north coast of Alaska, near Prudhoe Bay. ”
http://www.navy.mil/list_single.asp?id=69910
koolahtah,
What do you make of all the complaining about cold, freezing tents and sleeping bags and such? I’ve camped/hunted in sub-zero weather/snow in minus 0 F weather and just do not see it as that much of a big deal. -35C they report now is probably the low, that’s almost short sleeve weather, and a good tent could be heated to tropical conditions in a heartbeat.
Thanks Koolatah. Please help Anthony out here with updates of any information or pictures you can provide of these guys. I agree fully that this is a PR stunt not a scientific endeavor. Thanks again.
Glenn,
Thanks for the question. I would also like to state I’m not against taking a challenge such as walking t the Pole on foot. I think it takes some serious courage to do it. Walking to work in -40 can be a challenge some days, so without a doubt, there complaining is likely warranted, however they deserve this, because IMO their expedition is just plain stupid and pointless. Their original launch point was Barrow, Alaska which is totally insane. Barrow, Alaska to the North Pole? Whisky Tango Foxtrot! Once they likely realized…or likely someone said, “you want to do what?” they changed to a second start point. (I should mention I’ve been following this ongoing saga since Fall of 08). The second start point was on the ice, essentially the same route from Barrow, however taking off a huge chuck of millage, not to mention a whole lot of swimming. The final one, which is the one they are on now was brought closer to land. I can only specualte as to why, however I suppose someone in Ken Borek Air Ltd who flew them out onto the ice and resupply them, out of Resolute, NU said…”you want to do what?”.
Sorry I went off on a tangent, back to your question. Dragging your sorry ass out of out of a sleeping bag in -40 is not a treat…especially after pulling all that unessential and likely now defective science equipment which may or may not been properly tested for arctic conditions doesn’t help things. Also being inside one of their tents for the short times that they are, is not likley to tropical. They won’t be suntanning in there, that’s for sure. Constant -40 temperatures after a certain period of banging a bashing will break anything down, especially ones body. I can only compare it to walking around in an old school dive suit when walking around on a cold (-30 and lower). As for the short sleeves, with weather in the Arctic latitudes, it does not begin until +7 to +8 Celsius.
So in all fairness, Catlin Arctic Scurvy…yes scurvy are likely suffering from fatigue and freezing their asses off, due to dragging non essential B.S. twitter based technologies (which will become their undoing) because in the Arctic, you do not waste energy. They seem to be wasting way to much energy.
Glenn (12:33:58) :
I’ve been wondering about their incessant, non-stop sniveling myself.
What ever happened to the old British stiff upper lip when facing adversity? Has it really been replaced by people like these three insufferable crybabies? What did they expect to encounter but constant cold?
Someone ought to send Pen and Martin one of these: click
REPLY: Smokey, it seems Pen Hadow has a habit of complaining publicly, as do many publicity hounds. see below:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/2625521/Ryanair-boss-in-row-with-explorer-Pen-Hadow-over-emergency-landing.html
and
http://blogs.abcnews.com/worldview/2008/08/budget-airline.html
The key phrase here: “From where I was sitting I could see about 20 masks and only a few of them were inflating.”
Uh…Pen, that’s because they don’t inflate. Even I know this. Here is why:
http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/707/when-you-wear-an-airline-oxygen-mask-why-doesnt-the-plastic-bag-inflate
And this is the same Pen hadow that is doing “science on the ice”.
Also, apparently the Telegraph can’t do simple math, note the reference to “40,000 feet” in the first part of the article. – Anthony
Steve Keohane (07:04:38) :
From personal observation, my breath shows at about 50 F and below.
Although it depends also on the Relative humidity of the surrounding air (if high, breath water vapor would condense), human breath condensation begins at about 41 °F (5 °C). So it’s true that if RH of air is at least 25%, we could experience visible breath condensation at10 °C (50 F); for example, when I lean over the packed meats gondola in the store, which is at 6 °C (42.8 F) and its RH is about 75%.
By the way, the current temperature in the Arctic is -30 °C and RH is 75%, so water vapor condensation from breath would be unavoidably visible
Anthony, the comments following the article in your first link were great! I read ’em all. It appears that the British public knows “Rupert Nigel Pendrill Hadow” a lot better than we do.
And the Straight Dope answer was, as usual, straight to the point.
Hahaha… I haven’t noticed before, but the graph on the EKG (ECG) inside the heart is running in the opposite way. Their hearts are functioning. Normal notches sequence is P wave, Q wave, R wave, S wave, S-T segment, and S wave. The small animations sequence is just the opposite… 🙂
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/2625521/Ryanair-boss-in-row-with-explorer-Pen-Hadow-over-emergency-landing.html
Besides thinking he needed to get a mask on his son first, Pen must also think he knows when a pilot should take time out of performing emergency procedures to “reassure” passengers. It isn’t a good idea, at least until the immediate situation is under control, since saying “Don’t worry, be happy” can cause more panic.
The Guardian just linked direct to this page.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/16/weather-arctic-climate-change
Unbelievable……..Gore’s Styrofoam glacier, Mann’s inverted temperature proxy, Hansen’s “adjusted” temperature records and now this.
What’ll end up happening is that this will be exposed as a hoax, but all will be forgiven as these “crusaders” braved the publicity to “raise public awareness”……………same as The Goracles movie……filled with inaccuracies, (if not outright lies), but the “message” is clear…….and we must never shoot the messenger.
These “poor”, “misguided” individuals should be applauded for shining the spotlight on this impending worldwide catastrophe.
Now, I’ve got to go mow the lawn or feed the cat or something.