Catlin Arctic Survey website recycles biotelemetry data?

UPDATES WE HAVE UPDATES: 8 updates to this story have been posted – see below the “read the rest of this entry” line. It appears most if not all of the technology in the expedition has failed early on and the Catlin website never made any mention of this fact until a BBC article appeared today. They have disclaimers up now on the Catlin website, and the flat XML data file used to feed the biometrics page has been removed from the web page developers website.

Something quite odd is going on at the Catlin Arctic Survey website at: http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/

It appears that they are presenting recycled data from the biotelemetry sensors on the team. The “live from the ice” biotelemetry data for each team member is presented here:

http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx

Here is a screencap of what the biotelemetry section of that webpage looks like:

click for full sized image
click for full sized image

A WUWT commenter posted this:

karl heuer (07:40:46) :

The “Live from the Ice” biotelemetry is definitely not live:

When the data loads,

Pen Hadow core temp starts at 33.25 C every time the page loads, then increments up to 33.57, 33.64, 33.7, 33.75

every time, I have refreshed, cleared temp files and rebooted — still the same

WUWT commenter “hotrod” did his own check:

I just tried it looking at Pen Haddow’s pulse rate — Hmmm what are the odds that 32 consecutive pulse rate measurements would be identical?

Yes looks like the bio metric data is just white was to make their site look nifty, and has absolutely no value at all — perhaps they already have all their ice measurements in the can too?

91

91.3

93.9

95.1

93.5

88.5

85

87.6

91.2

94.5

101.3

106.6

105.9

102

96.6

92.9

87.2

85.1

79.9

80.7

80.2

85.9

89.9

96.2

105.9

116.7

113.9

103.4

90.8

83.4

82.1

82.4

===========

91

91.3

93.9

95.1

93.5

88.5

85

87.6

91.2

94.5

101.3

106.6

105.9

102

96.6

92.9

87.2

85.1

79.9

80.7

80.2

85.9

89.9

96.2

105.9

116.7

113.9

103.4

90.8

83.4

82.1

82.4

==================

Larry

And I also double checked that with my own observations, writing down each datapoint from a “clean refresh” of the web page as shown below:

Ann Daniels Heartbeat

89.7

89.6

87.4

95.6

104.4

94.5

85.5

98.1

123.1

122.9

109.8

106.6

108.7

113.9

102.1

105.1

104.7

96.3

109.6

109

115

117.8

109.6

105.9

110.8

111.1

101.5

104.7

121.6

137.3

142.5

130

132.4

149.6

142.4

122.4

129.5

116.3

107.5

113.3

102.3

100.7

110.3

124.9

130.1

143.1

163.7

164.7

142.8

118

108.8

102.7

96.3

94.7

101.7

117.4

119

98.8

Martin Hartley Heartbeat

113

114.3

113.3

109.5

109.4

108.5

105.8

107.8

106.6

104.1

106.6

108.9

109.1

110.1

110.6

108.2

102.2

97.2

96.4

98.2

99.9

102

99.1

100.7

106.8

107.3

108.6

107.2

100.9

103.8

107.4

105.1

105.9

Ann Core temp

37.32

37.26

37.22

37.2

37.18

37.17

37.15

37.16

37.17

37.19

37.2

37.21

37.22

37.23

37.26

37.27

37.29

37.3

Martin Core Temp

37.29

37.25

37.24

37.25

37.23

37.21

37.2

37.21

37.22

37.2

37.21

37.2

37.19

37.2

37.21

37.2

37.19

37.2

37.19

37.18

37.19

I didn’t bother to check any more.

Indeed, you can watch these exact same sequences of numbers on all the sensors listed above repeat exactly in the sequence of numbers shown above immediately after a web page refresh.

And this is “live from the ice”?

So I thought to myself “maybe they only download telemetry data every couple of hours”? So maybe it was “near-live”.

That would explain the page refresh behavior. Fortunately, there was a way on the Catlin website to check the past data using the data selector on the biotelemetry page as shown below:

click for a full sized image
click for a full sized image

To my surprise, it made no difference. Any day I selected showed the exact same telemetry data!

There’s no mention of this on their website that I can find.

Something else bothers me: trailing zero deletion.

Notice this data sequence:

Martin Core Temp

37.29

37.25

37.24

37.25

37.23

37.21

37.2

37.21

37.22

37.2

37.21

37.2

37.19

37.2

37.21

37.2

37.19

37.2

37.19

37.18

37.19

Notice how the zero is dropped from 37.2? Most data loggers don’t behave that way when logging data, but anyone familiar with a Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet knows of this behavior.

I welcome all readers to repeat the exercise I just did with the data, and I welcome any plausible explanations for what I have observed that would explain this repeating data pattern.

The biotelemetry equipment (used by the team) manufacturer webpage shows a remote monitoring application:

Sensor Application Diagram

Fig 1. Sensor Application Diagram

The Catlin web page itself says this about the biotelemetry:

catlin_bio_status

And the caveat posted at the bottom of the “live from the ice” web page says this:

The data produced by the Equivital System is provided for general information only and is not intended for medical analysis within the scope of the Catlin Arctic Survey. As such, it will be analysed for general research purposes only and will not be viewed or utilised as a tool for the diagnosis or identification of the medical condition of the expedition team. This has been agreed by all members of the expedition team.

Nothing about it being “not live” or broken is stated, only that we shouldn’t use it for medical analysis.

So we have:

  • repeating data on all heatbeats
  • repeating data on all core temperatures
  • repeating data on the three dates I checked available from the archive data selector
  • no notice of the telemetry being down
  • no notice of it not being “live”
  • status: “operational” for all three team members
  • UPDATE: I also checked from another computer in my office that had never visited the website to eliminate the possibility of some web browser cache problem – same results

What could one conclude from that? Maybe this is just an elaborate demo page? But why then the “live from the ice” as the name of the page in the URL?

http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx

If it is not live, why not simply say so?

If my observations are correct, the question then is : if they are this sloppy about what data they present to the world on their “live” web page, what does that say about integrity of any other data they may gather? Surely they know the whole world is watching the condition of the three intrepid ice explorers with great concern?

Let’s give them the benefit of the doubt, it could be a technical glitch of some sorts, but I’ll be interested to see what the explanation for this is.

UPDATE: WUWT commenter “sandy” offer this bit of flash debugging which sheds some light on the issue.

Those numbers are built into the flash swf. There is no attempt to contact the server to update the .swf.

For the technical: A swf that was updating real time would have to contact the server for the latest data. It would do this using a XMLHTTPRequest object which is the wizardry behind AJAX, or it would attempt to open a direct socket which generally gets the browser squawking.

My firefox firebug developer add-on can detect no attempt to contact the server.

This swf was never designed to be able to get live data.

(and it is a bugger to get right)

If, on seeing the .fla, this swf came from, I am wrong, I’ll be happy to retract.

But until then my accusation of deliberate deception stands.

Anybody care to verify this?

UPDATE2: It gets even stranger. Why would anyone strap a “hand warmer” to a device designed to measure temperature? (h/t to Edward Mitchell)

note the bungee cords - click for larger image
note the bungee cords - click for larger image

Source of this image: http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/technology_seacat

UPDATE3: The root data file for Catlin biometric data has been located by WUWT reader Shawn F..

Shawn F.

Well, I hope my comment is useful but in my analysis of the biofeedback html I am finding that the swf (the flash component of the page) is not the requester of the data but rather consumes ajax information via javascript. Therefore, it could be possible that the page is requesting live data from another site and feeding it to the swf via javascript (although I have already checked that possibility and the data is coming from off site, but it appears to be “canned” data).

I believe I have verified that the following are the calls being made from the page per “explorer”:

http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=pen

http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=ann

http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=martin

You can verify the data without the querystring: http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php for the total xml file.

I have saved a copy of this xml and will check to see if it changes.

I appreciate the good people here who drive out the corruption to truth and science. This site is preserving my sanity!

REPLY: Thank you Shawn, this appears to be the root data. I’ve loaded the http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php file and it appears to indeed be hard coded. For those just joining this discussion, the Catlin website has a footer at the bottom of each page that identifies the website developer:

Produced by http://www.indigopapa.com

And that is where the XML data file requested by the flash used to drive the “biometrics” page comes from. I suppose it is possible that this data file would be regularly updated, but the fact that they have a date selector on the biometrics web page that does nothing, and calls this same file again and again points to a hard wiring of this data.

WUWT readers, especially those with flash and XML experience, please weigh in and point out anything you see that either supports or refutes this conjecture. – Anthony

UPDATE4: WUWT reader Pkatt points out that the leader of the survey required an Arctic extraction in 2003 that in the words of one rescuer “put lives at risk” and was “a bit stupid”

Story here at the UK independent

UPDATE 5: The Catlin live biometrics web page went blank for awhile, and this note appeared:

Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.

UPDATE6: The disclaimer message on Catlin live biometrics web page now says:

Please note the above data was collected over a 12 hour period on March 8th. This gives us a fair representation of how the ice team bodies are coping in the incessant cold.

The biotelemetry data is captured using Equivital monitoring units, usually used by the military, first responders, emergency services and those operating in high risk and remote locations. They have been specifically designed to operate in a wide range of environments. The units have stood up extremely well so far to the rigours of extended polar travel, but some of the data does require explanation.

Yes, it does.

UPDATE7: The XML source data file used to originally feed the biotelemetry web page flash display has been removed and replaced with a generic logo of the developer/ website company for the Catlin Expedition:

http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php no longer works. This is the page that comes up now:

catlin_arctic_xml_data_endgame_page
click for full size image

But I saved the XML data that used to be there and it is posted below:

<stats>

<ann>

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UPDATE8: A story has now appeared in the BBC that says they may not have any data from their towed sled ice radar unit (known as SPRITE) at all:

Arctic team: London, we have a problem from the BBC

A portable radar device, known as Sprite, designed to make millions of measurements of the ice thickness, has been dogged by breakdowns and uncertainties.

Another instrument, SeaCat, meant to measure the temperature and salinity of the water beneath the ice-cap, has malfunctioned as well.

The expedition’s organisers insist that other research – such as regular drilling through the ice – has meanwhile been carried out successfully.

It gets curiouser and curiouser.

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MartinGAtkins
April 8, 2009 2:41 pm

That would explain the page refresh begavior.

Typo alert.
FIXED thanks

MikeN
April 8, 2009 2:43 pm

Base of the neck!

Jack
April 8, 2009 2:45 pm

Perhaps the entire exercise is a sham? Like the moon walks according to the conspiracy theorists?
If so, we can have the complete results of their “measurements” now, can’t we?

George Bruce
April 8, 2009 2:47 pm

I hope they are alright. We can laugh at the scientific absurdity of their publicity stunt expedition, but their lives are not a laughing matter.

Steven Goddard
April 8, 2009 2:50 pm

I think they loop a time slice on the web site, and then capture new measurements every few hours or so.
REPLY: then why not say so?

Katlab
April 8, 2009 2:54 pm

This is bothersome on many levels, but let’s pick the most humane. Is there anyway of tracking whether they are actually okay, healthwise?

kurt
April 8, 2009 2:56 pm

Yes, I just confirmed your observations. One plausible explanation I can think of is that they are no longer receiving the biometric data from one or more of the members of the expedition, but don’t want to advertise the fact, so they created a loop.

AKD
April 8, 2009 3:01 pm

I think they pooped their sensors and are embarassed to tell.
REPLY: that would still leave other sensors like heartbeat intact. – Anthony

Jeff B.
April 8, 2009 3:05 pm

Tough questions, but I have to ask. Is it possible that these folks are martyring themselves on this expedition, for the cause of AGW? Or worse, that their handlers are allowing them to continue their foolish quest, even at great risk to their lives?
Cold remains a very dangerous threat to humans. And yet all we hear about is AGW, even when there is such an obvious and persistent decline in global temps.

kurt
April 8, 2009 3:07 pm

“Steven Goddard (14:50:12) :
I think they loop a time slice on the web site, and then capture new measurements every few hours or so.”
If this were the case, shouldn’t the pattern change when you load a previous-day’s data? What would be the point of letting you load data for the previous day if the display was simply fed the same time-interval loop regardless of the day selected?

Aron
April 8, 2009 3:08 pm

Confirmed. It’s possible to set up a Flash .swf file that starts off with the same numbers each time and then uses a auto-refreshing random number generator within a tight margin after that.

Robert Wood
April 8, 2009 3:10 pm

Hey, we are all worried that they are OK.
Who says they are any further North than Scunthorpe??

kurt
April 8, 2009 3:12 pm

“Katlab (14:54:08) :
This is bothersome on many levels, but let’s pick the most humane. Is there anyway of tracking whether they are actually okay, healthwise?”
This may sound awfully jaded, but is there any way of confirming whether they are actually there at all?

INGSOC
April 8, 2009 3:15 pm

Capricorn 1?

Terry
April 8, 2009 3:21 pm

They don’t have them sync’d either – it just starts at the first number in the series when the client loads, and then loops through the static dataset. Open a browser to the bio page, and after a few of the numbers have cycled, open another – the two are never in sync, they each just cycle 1 to n and start over again. They could at least have gone to the effort of blasting the same fake number(s) to open clients at the same time. Tsk tsk, sloppy sloppy.

MikeE
April 8, 2009 3:29 pm

Well when that data was correct, poor ole pen was teetering on stage three hypothermia… Not a good thing if yer core temp goes down too 32, yah get the warm fuzzies and all you want to do is curl up in a ball and go too sleep.
But as the data is obviously has nothing to do with their physical condition, who knows

April 8, 2009 3:37 pm

I think they are healthy, and you make too much out of this. Of course this is for the public, not scientific. Like the adoption of polar bears where no polar bear is adopted but the money collecting and politically very influential non-governmental organization WWF does well. The other day the Catlin team is plastic toys in our Corn Flakes… Like milk in the bottom of our plates of milk.
So lets not be mean but hoping they are well and healthy …when the polar bears shows up!

If it’s okay, although it’s offtopic, an interesting political article about UN:s sacral commandments for Copenhagen and a carbon free world [snip] order:
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=323046044706313

MikeW
April 8, 2009 3:38 pm

Only slightly OT: Back on the 17th of March, a WUWT post entitled “Another shocked polar explorer” included a tracking map for the first dozen days. It show the backwards drift from day 6 to day 12. Is there a newer version of this map?
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/np-icequest-map.png
I could not find any ‘live’ map on the Catlin site. How is the ice drift affecting them currently? I’ve seen some notes here that it may be adding to their progress which I would find surprising unless they’ve been crossing an area that has been stretching out. Is it? Regardless of how far they’ve trekked or drifted, what is their current position along the entire distance they’re trying to cover?
Thanks Anthony, for all your work here, and thanks to the many other contributors as well.

Mike Bryant
April 8, 2009 3:42 pm

If there was a simple straightforward explanation, why not just give the explanation up front? In my estimation this expedition, which includes all the sponsors and the prince, has lost what little credibility it had.

Ray Reynolds
April 8, 2009 3:55 pm

Classic rut, hiking across a barren expance of ice for months on end will do that to a person…same old same old same old day.

Robert Wood
April 8, 2009 4:06 pm

My email to info@catlinarcticsurvey.com
Sir/Madam,
I notice that whenever I log into the real time biometrics page http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx the same sequence of, for example, Pen Hadow’s core temperatures, always occours. I find it hard to believe that every time I visit the page, the team members are all undergoing the exact same physiological experiences as during the previous visit.
Or is this all a fraud, a hoax. What proof do you have that there is actually anyone in the Arctic at all?

layne
April 8, 2009 4:08 pm

One report I read (perhaps here or a link from here) noted they were exibiting signs of chronic hypothermia. Not something to play with. Assuming they are really where they say they are, I hope they’re ok.

Leon Brozyna
April 8, 2009 4:09 pm

Can anyone say, ‘cooking the books?’
Who needs real data when fictional data works so well supporting The Cause?

Hasse@Norway
April 8, 2009 4:19 pm

I’m sure these temperature readings are quite “robust” and verified by other studies…. which are also….. robust….

Antonio San
April 8, 2009 4:28 pm

May I suggest reading Viktor Pelevin’s: Omon Ra? It is a short book but could offer a nice counterpoint to the Catlin mission…

April 8, 2009 4:50 pm

This will be very *inconvenient* when they come out with their book. Kudos on a perfect discovery for a skeptics’ site.

AKD
April 8, 2009 5:08 pm

AKD (15:01:37) :
I think they pooped their sensors and are embarassed to tell.
REPLY: that would still leave other sensors like heartbeat intact. – Anthony

Polar bears ate those and pooped them, too. Also very embarrassing. One way or the other, this all comes back to poop.
Poop in, poop out.

pby
April 8, 2009 5:17 pm

Nathan Hale said before he was hung by the British that he regrets that he had only one life to give for his country. These people can say they gave their life if they lose it for the purpose of enslaving the masses by the few elites. The control of the many by the false science of agw. This has never been about science but about money and control of every facet of human life. Where one person gave his life for freedom they are risking their life foe state domination. How pathetic.

Gary P
April 8, 2009 5:19 pm

Perhaps when the data stream goes out of range of acceptable variation, the software begins to loop old data. I hope the real data isn’t pulse 0, respiration 0, core temperature -30 C.

Graeme Rodaughan
April 8, 2009 5:22 pm

Perhaps we could mount a 2 week Sceptics expedition to Bali to check if Global warming was having an impact on the serving temperature of Beer?
It would be as useful.

Graeme Rodaughan
April 8, 2009 5:22 pm

We could call it “Not the Catlin Expedition”.

J.Hansford
April 8, 2009 5:25 pm

Hmm….. They are actually out on the ice are they?…… and not tucked away in a warm base camp in Canada pretending to be intrepid arctic explorers?
Don’t want to sound too cynical. But I have little trust in people who have been found to have made things up….. You start wondering what else they made up as well.
….. Then of course there is their ice data….. I wonder how good that is now?

Bill Illis
April 8, 2009 5:28 pm

I noticed this a week ago and the numbers haven’t changed since.
I imagine it is not really possible to transmit the biotelemetry data on a continous basis from the Arctic. I also imagine the Team does not want to be wearing the sensors all the time (and having to semi-strip-down each day at -40C to put them on).
I imagine they did record the data at some point and sent the data along with the plane after the first re-supply mission. It is clear that most of the pictures from the ice pack were also sent aboard the plane after the first re-supply rather than transmitted.
This isn’t the Apollo mission after all. It does, however, raise the question of what is publicity versus what is real.

April 8, 2009 5:37 pm

The site no longer shows their progress. I suppose this data did not show what they wanted so they just eliminated it.
This expedition will most likely come to an end very soon. Maybe they will say something like this “The ice is so thin with one year old ice the expedition was forced to end thei journey”. or something like that,

Jeremy
April 8, 2009 5:43 pm

I find this entire discussion distasteful. If these people are really where they say they are then they are obviously in danger. The arctic is no place for making a publicity stunt. Even people who do foolish things do not deserve to die. I sincerely hope that somebody sane is monitoring these foolish people. It reminds of the book “Into thin Air” and the idiotic things people do when they are half frozen and brains numb with cold. On Everest people have just sat down, given up and a few hours later they are, of course, dead. I recall one poor foolish chap, radioed his wife (with child) while he sat down and died.

Jim Arndt
April 8, 2009 5:45 pm

Hey Anthony,
People can correct me but even in perfect conditions I believe your body temp changes more than that. Hence we sweat or shiver. Didn’t you post that they are slurring their speech, that means core temp should have dropped quite a bit. Just doesn’t seem right.

swampie
April 8, 2009 5:49 pm

Ooooh, I’ll volunteer for the “Not the Catlin Expedition”. FINALLY! Some science that we can use.

April 8, 2009 5:58 pm

Possible candidates for the Darwin Awards I’d say. That’s if they are really anywhere they say they are. Sounds like the whole thing could be faked. Complete bs anyway.
So where are the bears?

Edward Mitchell
April 8, 2009 6:08 pm

I was just looking through the sponsors for the Catlin mission, and here is what I found:
23 Sponsors
5 Financial and insurance
4 Carbon trading and environmental groups (the big oil of the green movement???)
The Prince’s May Day Network
The Prince’s May Day Network is the UK’s largest group of businesses of all sizes and from all sectors who have pledged to take action to reduce their carbon emissions. Founded by HRH the Prince of Wales, the Network empowers these businesses to share the experiences, challenges and business benefits of carbon reduction. The Catlin Arctic Survey team will broadcast from the ice to the third Prince’s May Day Summit on climate change, on 1st May 2009
Climate Friendly
‘Independently ranked number one by the Carbon Offset Watch survey, Climate Friendly is committed to achieving real emissions reductions and supporting renewable energy by investing in only the highest quality, Gold Standard and Voluntary Carbon Standard projects.’
Green Guardian
The largest environmental awareness campaign in South London, the Green Guardian initiative is a unique partnership between Newsquest South London, the leading media company in the area, south London borough councils and commercial businesses and organisations.
Launched in 2006, the aim of the initiative is to provide environmental news and information through Newsquest South London’s paper titles and websites. The Green Guardian awards give public recognition and thanks to all those across South London that are taking steps to reduce their environmental footprint.
ECX
ECX is the premier marketplace for trading carbon emissions, providing the focal point for the majority of trading in the recently developed emissions or carbon markets.
The rest are the usual assortment of sponsors, their law firms, equipment and clothing suppliers, transportation etc.
Could this mission be biased from the start? It seems at least 4 of these 23 sponsors will benefit in some way if the data collected supports AGW!

April 8, 2009 6:10 pm

I have not seen anybody mention this. When they first gave “Live from the ice”, there was apparent telemetry for ice thickness. This has never been transmitted. Now we are supposedly getting the medical data, but the ice thickness data has completely disappeared; it actually never appeared at all. Am I being cynical when I speculate that the Catlin expedition dont want anyone to see the raw data on ice thickness? That they wish to “process” it before making the results known? Just a thought.

JohnD
April 8, 2009 6:18 pm

re: a few comments, I don’t get how freezing to death makes one an AWG martyr (no way to spin THAT).
They may die for not being plucked out of there in time by the team’s operational command, say, for the hope that the weather turns, and puts The Artic Sea Ice Meltdown Tragedy Tour back on script, but that would be murder, not martyr.

Katlab
April 8, 2009 6:20 pm

kurt,
I thought about them not being there, but if they weren’t there. The blogs wouldn’t be about how cold it is. It would be more global warming stuff, but you’ve got to wonder. Throw doubt on one thing, everything becomes subject to question.

MikeW
April 8, 2009 6:20 pm

Edward Mitchell (18:08:01) : “The Catlin Arctic Survey team will broadcast from the ice to the third Prince’s May Day Summit on climate change, on 1st May 2009.”
And the broadcast will be: “Mayday! Mayday! Get us the hell out of here!”

AnonyMoose
April 8, 2009 6:23 pm

Can we start a donation button to fund a Caitlin Survey Project? Land helicopters a mile or two ahead of them, wave at them (in shirtsleeves) as they go past, record time and location, note any barbeques or proximity to buildings, then move ahead again. And, yes, I do know we’d need a town-sized base to keep helicopters moving in the Arctic. But we’re monitoring Science!

William
April 8, 2009 6:30 pm

I’d bet the batteries died. They tried to over tech the mission. Or a more plausible explanation from Star Trek (pick any series, they all did it) they are stuck in a time warp. Like the movie ‘Groundhog Day’, each time they drift back, the data starts over.

Glenn
April 8, 2009 6:38 pm

Jim Cripwell (18:10:13) :
“I have not seen anybody mention this. When they first gave “Live from the ice”, there was apparent telemetry for ice thickness. This has never been transmitted. Now we are supposedly getting the medical data, but the ice thickness data has completely disappeared; it actually never appeared at all. Am I being cynical when I speculate that the Catlin expedition dont want anyone to see the raw data on ice thickness? That they wish to “process” it before making the results known? Just a thought.”
This is more curious IMO than the biometric prop stunt. Why did they set up the website to show realtime ice thickness data in the first place, if they knew the data would be sent in another direction and not available till after the melt season ended?
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hnm6QA1av0WvxKQFkkoNH4kZTEqQ
“Hadow and his team, who are due to set off on or around February 24, will be dragging with them SPRITE, a radar which measures the thickness of ice every 10 centimetres throughout the trip.
The radar readings will then be fed back to Professor Wieslaw Maslowski of the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, who is leading the analysis effort.
Hadow and his team will be able to offer a provisional snapshot of how long the polar ice cap will last when they reach the North Pole at the end of May but Maslowski’s authoritative findings will not be available until September.”

piroldj
April 8, 2009 6:43 pm

Groundhog day.

Admin
April 8, 2009 6:44 pm

This basically means that not one iota of information that comes from this “expedition” or its support team can be trusted. Nothing. Nada. Zero. Zilch.
If part is faked for show, then all parts are suspect.
Great catch everyone.
This needs to get to a mainstream reporter ASAP.

Mike Bryant
April 8, 2009 6:49 pm

“Hadow and his team will be able to offer a provisional snapshot of how long the polar ice cap will last when they reach the North Pole at the end of May but Maslowski’s authoritative findings will not be available until September.”
Of course, by then it will be obvious to everyone how the melt season progressed. How will they spin the anecdata if the melt is the about the same or less than 2008? How will they spin a reversal of the trend?

L Ross
April 8, 2009 7:00 pm

Whether the data is looped and then new data is downloaded or any other possible explanation to try and account for a set of repeating numbers which do not coincide from one computer to another, yet start at a fixed point and then run through the sequence points to artifical data.
One important point then is that whether this data is artificial or not (providing there is some sort of explanation for the repetition aside from fake data) the data appears to be artificial and there should be an explanation forthcoming. In the meantime, those responsible for monitoring the data, updating the website, collecting and cashing the checks which must be forthcoming should post a note retracting the data and remove it from the website until all is working as it should.
It looks as if most people, even when confronted with obvious false data, really want to believe that this is at heart a noble project. That sentiment should be taken advantage of while it lasts.
Given the good nature of most of the folks observing this it seems sort of sad to think that the most likely explanation for all of those little mysteries is that this is simply a drama to draw attention to conclusions aready drawn. On the other hand, this seems to point up the current degree of “science” used in the climate change debate.

Christian Bultmann
April 8, 2009 7:01 pm

Perhaps the biotelemetry data after receiving it is modelled and corrected by the same computer model that predicted that the arctic will be ice free this year.
Kind off like the ocean temperatures if you can’t find warming model yourself some.

April 8, 2009 7:12 pm

Pen Hadow models his Cranial-Rectal Inversion Attitude Adjuster for the public: click
jeez (18:44:57) is right on. When someone is caught lying, it means one thing for sure: he is a liar. At this point we can’t trust anything they say.

Mike Bryant
April 8, 2009 7:16 pm

Since we’re all laughing at England’s Prince Charles, perhaps an English newspaper might fancy a write-up of this rather sad affair. Surely the good Prince will pull the plug on these hooligans and their shenanigans. Do the right thing England.
Hail Britania!
Mike Bryant

April 8, 2009 7:18 pm

MikeW (15:38:20) :
How is the ice drift affecting them currently? I’ve seen some notes here that it may be adding to their progress which I would find surprising unless they’ve been crossing an area that has been stretching out. Is it?

I use the following site to monitor drift of the arctic ice, the results are consistent with their reports. Initially strong flow against their direction of travel, then no drift, followed by drift towards the pole. If I were them I’d be ‘aiming off’ to the left to make the best progress.
http://cersat.ifremer.fr/data/discovery/by_product_type/gridded_products/psi_amsr_drift

Edward Mitchell
April 8, 2009 7:24 pm

Here is something pequiliar. They are using a seacat CTD system for their water data collection. Something doesn’t look right with the housing for the temp sensor. HWGW (Hand Warmer Global Warming?????)
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/technology_seacat
http://www.seabird.com/products/spec_sheets/19plusdata.htm
Compar them and see if you can spot the jerry rig!

Sandy
April 8, 2009 7:25 pm

It is a nice MODEL of the biotelemetry, just as good as observation!
Hrrumph!
Those numbers are built into the flash swf. There is no attempt to contact the server to update the .swf.
For the technical: A swf that was updating real time would have to contact the server for the latest data. It would do this using a XMLHTTPRequest object which is the wizardry behind AJAX, or it would attempt to open a direct socket which generally gets the browser squawking.
My firefox firebug developer add-on can detect no attempt to contact the server.
This swf was never designed to be able to get live data.
(and it is a bugger to get right)
If, on seeing the .fla, this swf came from, I am wrong, I’ll be happy to retract.
But until then my accusation of deliberate deception stands.

Pamela Gray
April 8, 2009 7:26 pm

Isn’t this the same thing as having somebody else pee in the cup?

Don S.
April 8, 2009 7:32 pm

So, anybody email Maslowski yet? His CV looks pretty good, that is he doesn’t look like a con man even though he is a modeler, but his expertise is beyond my ken. I’d like to see his answer the questions: Are those guys really out there and transmitting data on ice thickness and age to your office? Show me the data.

Don S.
April 8, 2009 7:33 pm

drat: “his answer to the question.”

Jack
April 8, 2009 7:38 pm

This silly expedition seems to be an apt metaphor for the entire AGW cause: doubtful premise; manipulated or non-existent data; results not matching the theory, denial of reality, manipulation of the media, support by the ignorant and venal etc. etc. Ultimately the truth will be revealed; with consequent ridicule of the movment’s leaders. The dupes will mostly disappear – like the Nazis’ supporters did after WW2, and Mao’s after the “Great Leap Forward”.
sigh

Ohioholic
April 8, 2009 7:49 pm

Hmm. Seems like someone was caught with their hand in the cookie jar.
Still, I would like these people to come home safe and sound.

Jack
April 8, 2009 7:49 pm

This expedition is an apt metaphor for the entire AGW movement.

D. King
April 8, 2009 7:49 pm

Again with the numbers. How are you supposed to debate
the science when they manipulate the data? I don’t even
trust the satellite data any more.

April 8, 2009 7:49 pm

It seems Martin and Ann are always excited… For example, Ann’s cardiac frequency goes up to 164.7 beats per minute. Normal CF (without exercising and depending of body’s requirements of oxygen) is 60-80 per minute. On the other hand, Martin has always a cardiac frequency above 90 beats per minute. I think Ann and Martin are suffering some kind of arctic fever.

Del
April 8, 2009 7:58 pm

Here’s the press release from Hidalgo which provided the EquivitalTM body worn physiological monitoring system.
http://www.prlog.org/10205861-catlin-arctic-survey-uses-equivital-physiological-monitoring-system.html
“The Equivital™ unit will continuously record and transmit the wearer’s physiological data, which will be sent to the survey vessel’s onboard Central Data Unit before being transmitted back to the UK HQ. In particular, core body temperatures will be recorded and sent back to track team members’ physical and mental responses when exposed to extended periods in extremely low temperatures. What this ultimately means is, at the beginning of the expedition, when ambient air temperatures are still as low as -50C, website visitors can witness first hand the detrimental effect that such conditions have on the human body. “

April 8, 2009 7:59 pm

Jim Arndt (17:45:06):
Hey Anthony,
People can correct me but even in perfect conditions I believe your body temp changes more than that. Hence we sweat or shiver. Didn’t you post that they are slurring their speech, that means core temp should have dropped quite a bit. Just doesn’t seem right.

Yes, human body’s temperature could vary more than that according with the environment temperature and the delay on organism’s response. However, there is a highly sensitive feedback biosystem which ammends immediately those sharp changes of temperature. Here a fragment from my thesis on Biophysics:
There are several channels of heat transfer between the human body and its environment. Some channels end in the corium, internal with respect to the epidermis; other channels “cross” muscles, fat layer, epidermis and hair, until reaching the interface or viscous boundary layer, which connects the body system with the environment and where the heat is transferred to the surrounds by conduction, convection, radiation and evaporation, if the body is within air, or by conduction, convection and radiation, if it is submerged in water.

Sandy
April 8, 2009 8:05 pm

Hmm, managed to isolate a swf and it is trying to contact something (dev.indiapapa,tv for those interested). Next try and see whether it gets a text file 🙁

Mark T
April 8, 2009 8:17 pm

Phil. (19:18:49) :
If I were them I’d be ‘aiming off’ to the left to make the best progress.

If I were them I’d be doing my damnedest to make sure that I was not going to be made into a martyr for the cause: I’d get on the next supply plane. Actually, I’d have simply looked at the satellite data and never left the comfort of my office.
Mark

crosspatch
April 8, 2009 8:24 pm

completely off topic (but hey, we never get an “open” thread around here 🙂
Has NASA ever done this:
Take a picture of a place, say the Orion Nebula, and six months later take another picture of the same spot, and then combine them as a stereoscopic image to make basically a 3D picture of how it would look if your eyes were as far apart as the orbit of Earth?

Bill Jamison
April 8, 2009 8:30 pm

Wow that’s fascinating! I wonder if we’ll hear some justification/excuse from Catlin support team!

pft
April 8, 2009 8:34 pm

Nasif Nahle (19:49:48) :
“It seems Martin and Ann are always excited… I think Ann and Martin are suffering some kind of arctic fever.”
Either that or they are sharing the same sleeping bag.

April 8, 2009 8:46 pm

Amazing. I was actually checking this page often, being surprised that his body is only at 33 deg C. And the numbers looked similar all the time. But I was never able to see that they’re exactly identical all the time, as a function of the time from the loading.
For an expedition that pretends to measure temperature-related things scientifically, it is not exactly encouraging to see that the procedure to measure their own temperatures and pulse rates is based on a complete fraud.

April 8, 2009 8:46 pm

Jack (19:38:48) said: “This silly expedition seems to be an apt metaphor for the entire AGW cause: doubtful premise; manipulated or non-existent data; results not matching the theory, denial of reality, manipulation of the media, support by the ignorant and venal etc. etc.
And ultimately torpedoed by global hypothermia.

John F. Hultquist
April 8, 2009 8:48 pm

There is an Arctic Buoy 60-day drift map here:
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_daily_track-map.html
I don’t see any Lat/Long here so it appears it would take some effort to plot the team’s progress, or lack thereof, on a map like this.

Shawn F.
April 8, 2009 8:59 pm

Well, I hope my comment is useful but in my analysis of the biofeedback html I am finding that the swf (the flash component of the page) is not the requester of the data but rather consumes ajax information via javascript. Therefore, it could be possible that the page is requesting live data from another site and feeding it to the swf via javascript (although I have already checked that possibility and the data is coming from off site, but it appears to be “canned” data).
I believe I have verified that the following are the calls being made from the page per “explorer”:
http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=pen
http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=ann
http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=martin
You can verify the data without the querystring: http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php for the total xml file.
I have saved a copy of this xml and will check to see if it changes.
I appreciate the good people here who drive out the corruption to truth and science. This site is preserving my sanity!
REPLY: Thank you Shawn, this appears to be the root data. I’ve loaded the http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php file and it appears to indeed be hard coded. For those juts joining this discussion, the Catlin website has a footer at the bottom of each page that identifies the website developer:
Produced by http://www.indigopapa.com
And that is where the XML data file requested by the flash used to drive the “biometrics” page comes from. I suppose it is possible that this data file would be regularly updated, but the fact that they have a date selector on the biometrics web page that does nothing, and calls this same file again and again points to a hard wiring of this data.
WUWT readers, especially those with flash and XML experience, please weigh in and point out anything you see that either supports or refutes this conjecture. – Anthony

Ozzie John
April 8, 2009 9:00 pm

The unusual thing here is that although it looks like the temperature data has been generated by a computer model, a small cooling trend is observed ?

Roger Knights
April 8, 2009 9:08 pm

“The unusual thing here is that although it looks like the temperature data has been generated by a computer model, a small cooling trend is observed ?”
LOL! Quote of the week!

crosspatch
April 8, 2009 9:08 pm

“For an expedition that pretends to measure temperature-related things scientifically, it is not exactly encouraging ”
It is the silence that is what is most disturbing. But maybe it is a time thing. They appear to be based in London so they won’t be waking up for a few more hours. Give them time to respond. The entire planet doesn’t operate on US time.

D W
April 8, 2009 9:15 pm

real life Groundhog Day!
The good news is that when Bill Murray was stuck in the cycle he couldn’t kill himself if he tried.

crosspatch
April 8, 2009 9:25 pm

“Why would anyone strap a “hand warmer” to a device designed to measure temperature?”
Why would anyone put a temperature measurement device directly in the path of jet exhaust at an airport?
I am seeing a pattern. And it is more than just about temperature. There seems to be an entire culture of making the numbers justify the agenda. The latest manifestation is here. Since the Arbitron device has been out and accurately measures what people actually listen to ( as opposed to what they SAY they listen to with the diary system ) the ratings have been taking a politically incorrect turn. So the answer is to shoot the messenger. Get rid of the evil bearer of the bad news and get the data back “on message”. If real data won’t validate your agenda, you just have to make it up, I suppose. “Adjust it” or place thermometers in the middle of parking lots, whatever it takes to make the data reflect the agenda. And it is more than just climate. It is a culture of lying … the end justifies the means. Sad.

hotrod
April 8, 2009 9:26 pm

Does anyone have access to flight control radar that covers the flights of the twin otter or able to pull flight plans to see if any actual flight plans have been filed for their resupply missions?
Anyone know anyone that works at the home station of their resupply otter that can confirm they have actually made any resupply flights as indicated in their blogs?
Has their twin otter fueled to make the alleged flights?
Was this project funded in any part by Bernie Maddoff ? ( just kidding —- sort of )
Where is a good investigative reporter when you need one?
Larry

April 8, 2009 9:28 pm

Lubos Motl (20:46:27) :
Amazing. I was actually checking this page often, being surprised that his body is only at 33 deg C.
Hi, Lubos… That has an explanation: The temperature sensors were placed directly on the skin, not into corporal cavities. For that reason, the reported temperatures are not the actual temperature of their bodies, but the temperature of the skin on which thermometric sensors were placed. The mean temperature of the skin in warm latitudes is 33 °C, which makes your observation on a quasi-constant temperature under an atmosphere at -30 °C very interesting. For example, if I am in front of a fan, the temperature of my skin would be 30.4 °C; if I move to an area far away from the fan, where the fresh air doesn’t reach me, my skin’s temperature would rise up to 31.3 °C. At this moment, the temperature of my chest skin (clothed body and on the same area on where the sensors were placed to the arctic team) is 35.1 °C, while the air temperature is 26.4 °C.

David Ball
April 8, 2009 9:29 pm

They were “projecting” when they said “oil company shill”. Is it beneath us to say “carbon credit shill”? After hearing “oil company shill” for thirty years, and never having seen any actual money from ANY oil company, it sure is tempting. Has anyone noticed that Shell Oil is one of the sponsored links on the Discovery Channels’ website? Apparently, we are to do as they say, not as they do. Still, I am worried about what these “grape-nuts” will do once the AGW scam has been defrocked. What other mischievous little cookie jars will they be into next? Clearly, their deceitfulness knows no bounds, so better to keep them where we can see them, than to not know what they are up to. Better the “devil you know”, etc…….

Lance
April 8, 2009 9:34 pm

I’ll give them a break for having to fake the biotelemetry on a web site. Sure there should be a disclaimer about recorded bio readings that may be repleted. For all I know, it may have worked for a few days and then went teats up.
I do have to admit, that does put into question in my mind, any true data coming out of his royal Hi-ass sponsored science expedition. Where are all the Britain’s speaking on his BS( bad science)? And why don’t they have a GPS strapped to them, readings their progress each day, for at least safety reasons? I mean they took the time to put biotelemetry, but not a few bucks for video tape/digital recordings as records of their everyday journey?
This has to be one of the worst planned out expedition surviving on dumb luck or we’re all being taken for ride for the all mighty buck of AGW agenda. If anyone lives in the areas these folks reside, in a none stalking way, stake out their places and see if they have even gone anywhere?
I’m sure we’ll have live video on tape in May with low camera shots taken with the sun in the background on BBC telling us the arctic is almost free of ice and 2009 is the hottest year on record “all over the world”.
This is just getting silly, who really believes in this farce anymore?

Nic
April 8, 2009 9:39 pm

re update #2:
the metal cover on the Seacat instrument conceals an electrical conductivity cell which is a glass tube containing electrodes that measure the conductivity of ocean water. When the instrument is deployed, water flows through the tube, as the instrument records the conductivity data. (more information than you will ever want is at the manufacturer’s site: http://www.seabird.com)
A potential problem when these devices are used in the polar regions is that once the instrument is recovered, the cell may retain water which then freezes very quickly in the much colder air temperatures. If the glass tube cracks as a result of the freezing, then the measurements will no longer be accurate. The hand warmers are presumably used after the instrument is recovered to assist in draining out any residual water before the instrument is stored.
You could ask them of course; they’d know better than I would.

EricH
April 8, 2009 9:42 pm

I can assure Robert Wood, 15:10:28, they haven’t even been seen as far north as Scunthorpe. I live there.

kuhnkat
April 8, 2009 9:43 pm

I can’t believe that they are not using sat links to upload data as it is gathered!! They could have used a couple of those cuddly polar bears to carry the equipment!!

April 8, 2009 9:44 pm

Addendum on my answer to Lubos’ post.
Amazingly, if the mean temperature of their skin is 33 °C, it means that they are losing heat disproportionately from the interior of their bodies, as if they were under a summery environment. Are you sure they are in the arctic?

Shawn F.
April 8, 2009 10:02 pm

The only other details concerning the source xml that is used to load the swf display is that there is no script apparent to load the files – they have to be replaced manually as far as I can determine. Also, a whois on the site results in this info
Domain name: INDIGOPAPA.TV
Administrative Contact:
Bowman, Steven
23 Old Broad Street
London, Gr London EC2N 1HQ
GB
07974565821
Technical Contact:
Bowman, Steven
23 Old Broad Street
London, Gr London EC2N 1HQ
GB
07974565821
That might be more info than anyone needs. This is the host and person who set up the website. If someone really, really wanted answers they could email Mr Bowman stevenbowman@live.co.uk
REPLY: Thanks tried that, a dead end. Here is what I got. – Anthony
Sorry, we were unable to deliver your message to the following address.
stevenbowman@live.co.uk:
Remote host said: 550 Requested action not taken: mailbox unavailable [RCPT_TO]

AndrewWH
April 8, 2009 10:18 pm

I feel it would be helpful if someone like Christopher Booker ran with this information to get the issue further out into the mainstream. This should have the benefit of pressuring Catlin to respond to the questions being raised.

Glenn
April 8, 2009 10:26 pm

Don S. (19:32:29) :
“So, anybody email Maslowski yet? His CV looks pretty good, that is he doesn’t look like a con man even though he is a modeler, but his expertise is beyond my ken. I’d like to see his answer the questions: Are those guys really out there and transmitting data on ice thickness and age to your office? Show me the data.”
Not a chance. Maslowski’s the one who predicts an ice-free summer by 2013 or less, and who Gore got the idea of “in five years” from. There’s too much riding on his models for any “ground truth” data to get in the way so soon. The data expected in September will support the existing data his model uses, unless ice loss is dramatically and undeniably less this summer than the last few years.

Glenn
April 8, 2009 10:41 pm

Mike Bryant (18:49:19) :
“Hadow and his team will be able to offer a provisional snapshot of how long the polar ice cap will last when they reach the North Pole at the end of May but Maslowski’s authoritative findings will not be available until September.”
“Of course, by then it will be obvious to everyone how the melt season progressed. How will they spin the anecdata if the melt is the about the same or less than 2008? How will they spin a reversal of the trend?”
Unless it is a dramatic increase, the same way AGW spins the temp, that a year or two of “variable weather” isn’t enough to reverse the trend. “This year the Arctic had an unusually cold winter and cool spring, but next year or three it will all melt…” kind of thing.

Brian Johnson
April 8, 2009 10:41 pm

From Catlin
Wednesday, 08 Apr 2009 12:59
“The resupply flight has successfully landed and is now heading back towards Resolute.
Re-supplies (4 in total for this expedition) are scheduled well ahead of the Ice Team’s departure, but subject to change because poor weather can prevent the plane landing.
The re-supply plane is stationed at Resolute Bay in Northern Canada, and is scheduled to stop to refuel at the unmanned Isachsen air strip on Ellef Ringes Island. Total flying time from Resolute to the Ice Team’s runway is approximately five hours.
“The pilot will be in contact with the Ice Team throughout the journey to monitor weather conditions”, says London HQ Head of Operations Chip Cunliffe, who flew with the explorers to their initial drop off point on the Arctic Ice at the start of the expedition “They’ll be listening out for the sound of the engine. Re-supplies are eagerly anticipated both for the new equipment and for the human contact.” He goes on to explain that landing on an ice runway is nothing like landing on a conventional runway.
“The pilot circles six or seven times before making a final approach. When the plane first touches the ice it bounces hard several times. It’s quite an unnerving experience if you don’t know what to expect”.
The Ice Team was guided to a suitable looking runway by Radarsat 2 imagery. To ensure a safe landing for the twin-otter, the landing strip must be of an ice-thickness of more than 60cm, at least 12 metres wide and 305 metres long. The strip the team have found is in excess of 1.5m thick and some 500m long, and after several hours of knocking out some large lumps of ice, is now ready for the Twin to land.”
In the event of a landing accident do they have backup aircraft standing by? And who clears up the mess left behind?

Paul S
April 8, 2009 10:42 pm

I feel a conspiracy theory coming on here, similar to the conspiracy’s surrounding the moon landing! Did they go or didn’t they? Lol!

Ceolfrith
April 8, 2009 10:43 pm

Off Topic
It’s official the UK Government deliberately increased Carbon emissions to improve tax revenues.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/5125422/Motorists-set-for-green-wave.html

EricH
April 8, 2009 10:48 pm

Have e-mailed BBC world news & UK news of your findings directing them to this website. I wonder if it will appear on any news broadcasts???????
Hey I’m an optimist. Enjoy.

crosspatch
April 8, 2009 10:53 pm

“The data expected in September will support the existing data his model uses, unless ice loss is dramatically and undeniably less this summer than the last few years.”
Well, there was more ice in 2008 than there was in 2009 and with measurements so far showing 2009’s ice is about a half-meter thicker than 2008 was, I would say it is now all up to the winds. If the winds keep the ice in the arctic, fine. If the winds blow the ice out into the Atlantic again like they did in 2007, the warmists are going to have a field day claiming the lack of ice was caused by a temperature change.

crosspatch
April 8, 2009 10:54 pm

“Well, there was more ice in 2008 than there was in 2009”
Oops, meant “Well, there was more ice in 2008 than there was in 2007”, of course.

Aron
April 8, 2009 10:57 pm

The European Carbon Exchange which is sponsoring this project is expecting not billions but trillions of Euros to be traded before their eyes this century. In terms of profit it is much more than the oil industry has ever seen because their making money out of thin air. They will not accept anything less than an alarmist scenario. The biggest and most profiteering traders will become the most powerful lobbyists in the world and will have the power to shut all dissent down once the big money starts rolling in. The truth won’t matter to them even if we dropped into another Dalton Minimum event.
If we think we’ll see the back of Islamic terrorism think again. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran’s most profitable export is oil. Carbon trading would cut directly into their profits. The next generation of jihadis could be sent to kill us to force out governments to stop carbon trading. And that is on top of the other reasons they think they already have.

crosspatch
April 8, 2009 11:03 pm

Ceolfrith:
“the occasional red light is a good traffic calming measure”
Yeah, especially if you are waiting on a cross street. We have had synchronized traffic lights for decades. They are reporting this like it is some new brilliant idea. It has been in use in the US for decades.

chillybean
April 8, 2009 11:08 pm

I made a screenshot of the catlin page on the 2nd and it shows:
Per : 77.1bpm core 34.49 skin 33 17 breaths
Ann: 122.4bpm core 37.41 skin 33.9 30.4 breaths
Martin: 93.5bpm core 37.19 skin 33.4 17.4 breaths
Lots of these values are not in your data so it would appear that they have updated the data somehow since the 2nd April.

REPLY:
Thanks for posting that! The data transcribed in the post here is only the first minute or two…but I find the data pairs from your screen cap in the source XML file that Shawn F. located here: http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php
Open it and have a look…you’ll find 1224 at 36 comma marks into Ann”s “ecg” data, then count how many comma marks to 3741 on the next line for “coretemp” and you’ll find it is 36 also…
It appears to be the same data on April 2nd also from your screencap.
Anthony

pkatt
April 8, 2009 11:13 pm

I read early on, and I cannot find the blog post now, but sometime right before the first resupply they said that they had hoped to send real time ice data back but were having trouble with the uplink and would have to be content sending the data back by memory card at the resupply. I assumed that it was the ice data they were talking about but perhaps that pertained to the med info as well. Furthermore I bet they are having battery trouble in that sort of cold.. The bio monitors seem to need a pda or phone to send data, I seriously doubt their batteries would last if they sent continuous readings.
you know of course Pen Hadow has pulled this crap before:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/rescuers-criticise-arctic-explorer-for-risking-lives-539163.html
“The British explorer Pen Hadow was rescued by plane from the North Pole yesterday – and came under immediate criticism from the emergency team “for risking lives” by the “stupid” decision to launch his Arctic mission when the pack ice was melting with the onset of spring.”
So if it was stupid in 2003 how come its so smart in 2009?? Im pretty sure even though the last name here is Haddow and in the article is Hadow, it is the same stupid person.

Richard111
April 8, 2009 11:22 pm

I was looking at this site last night…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7897392.stm
and it mentioned the Catlin team preparing a runway on the ice for the resupply plane. That entry has now vanished. Team had spent several hours removing lumps from the 500 meter landing site. Ice thickness was claimed to be in excess of 1.5 meters.
Now nothing !!!

chillybean
April 8, 2009 11:26 pm

I take it all back, just watched the live site for a few minutes and up popped my screenshot values. The data HAS NOT changed since the 2nd April.
What a shameful scam.

crosspatch
April 8, 2009 11:32 pm

Heh, just dawned on me that there is another possibility. They might have contracted out all this biotelemetry stuff to a third party who simple created some data files and has ripped them off. Might have figured that if the date file is large enough, nobody will notice that it repeats. So you charge someone many thousands of dollars to provide bio data and feed them canned data you generated ahead of time. You just have to monitor the radio and make sure you switch off a stream in case something unfortunate happens to one of the members to avoid being caught out.
REPLY: The “root” datafile is being served from the website designer and provider for the entire web setup; http://www.indigopapa.tv I’ve sent them an email asking the questions. – Anthony

Richard111
April 8, 2009 11:33 pm

Why no update on the resupply. The BBC site was last updated 3 April 2009.
The landing was scheduled for 10 48 am their local time the next day.

chillybean
April 8, 2009 11:36 pm

Just a thought,
Are we sure that they actually went to the Arctic.
Could we be witnessing a re-run of The Last Voyage of Donald Crowhurst. This was when a round the world yachtsman decided that it was too difficult to actually complete the solo circumnavigation. Instead he just radioed back false positional data.
Joking of course (nervously)

Glenn
April 8, 2009 11:37 pm

“So if it was stupid in 2003 how come its so smart in 2009?? Im pretty sure even though the last name here is Haddow and in the article is Hadow, it is the same stupid person.”
That’s him. Now with Catlin expecting to be at the Pole in June, with 3 people, who likely all believe the ice is almost all going to melt this summer. Somehow I just can’t wrap my mind around believing anything these people claim, including data reports.

CodeTech
April 8, 2009 11:39 pm

crosspatch,
You DO know that the “6 month apart, width of Earth’s orbit” method is how we determine the distance of distant objects, right? Of course, the problem is that the width of Earth’s orbit relative to stellar distances is not nearly enough stereo spread to get much depth perception.
To put it in perspective, 2 AUs (the distance between the Earth now and the Earth 6 months from now) compared to even Alpha Centauri (obviously our closest stellar neighbor) would be like us looking at something a mile away with our eyes 0.00001mm apart. And yes, I pulled that number completely out of thin air, but I’m pretty sure I’m in the right ballpark, IF I have enough zeroes in there.
Measuring stellar distances is accomplished by the apparent shift relative to background, while stereo vision depth perception is accomplished by differing parts of an object being visible to two different observation points.

chillybean
April 8, 2009 11:43 pm

“chillybean – see my reply above in your previous comment…the bio data is from a fixed file – Anthony”
I was checking that the fixed file had not been updated, can happen 😉

crosspatch
April 8, 2009 11:44 pm

My couple of my UK co-workers have come online now but they are early risers and are connecting from their homes … so it shouldn’t be long before some people in London begin to realize the repeating data has been noticed. I would expect to hear something in the next couple of hours …. or not.

Aron
April 8, 2009 11:51 pm

You’ve already seen the Monty Python expedition videos I posted. Back in those days it was common for comedians to make fun of the way the BBC and British explorers would spend lots of money on fanciful expeditions and adventures that achieved nothing.
Here’s Spike Milligan’s take

The Top Gear expedition to the North Pole also made fun of it all by showcasing all the gin they drank and the basketful of posh snacks and wine they took with them.
What we’re seeing with the biotelemetry data page is basically the same thing. They’ve gone and spent money on souping up their webpage and buying equipment so they can look mighty impressive and scientifically advanced to their sponsors, the media and the public. But it is all a gimmick and the expedition itself is not scientific.

Glenn
April 8, 2009 11:54 pm

A little more wierdness from Pen Hadow:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/2625521/Ryanair-boss-in-row-with-explorer-Pen-Hadow-over-emergency-landing.html
“My highest priority was to get a mask on to my son who was sitting next to me in a bemused and frightened state.”
He went on: “Mine wasn’t filling up with oxygen and neither was my son’s.
Pen, your highest priority was to get a mask on yourself, so you wouldn’t pass out before you got one on yourself. And the airbags do not “fill up”.
As a professional survivalist you should have known this, even if you needed to read emergency instructions and never listened to the attendant explaining.

crosspatch
April 8, 2009 11:59 pm

Codetech
“Of course, the problem is that the width of Earth’s orbit relative to stellar distances is not nearly enough stereo spread to get much depth perception.”
ok, so use a telescope in orbit at Jupiter’s distance. It should be easy enough to make park a scope at a Jovian Lagrangian point … or Saturn … or Neptune even.

Editor
April 9, 2009 12:10 am

They key here is that they will keep up reporting fake telemetry from the ice until it melts, then they will be reported as dying from drowning due to AGW.

Roger Knights
April 9, 2009 12:23 am

Did any team members, during the course of their broadcasts, make statements regarding their body-temperature data that had the effect of validating the computer-generated data as authentic? For instance, did they make readout by eyeball of their temperatures and discuss them? Did they play along with this charade, IOW? If so, this affair will be harder to explain away.

Editor
April 9, 2009 12:27 am

Looking at their equipment sponsor, Cotswold, the most extreme sleeping bag they offer has a lower comfort point of -25 C. If they are sleeping in -40 C conditions in a bag (assuming they are using the most extreme model the company carries) with a lower limit of -25C, they are significantly underequipped and whoever made the equipment decisions for this expedition should be held responsible for whatever happens to the expedition members.
Allegedly the resupply plane has arrived. Can we get a report on whether the expedition members are still alive? Are they getting new equipment?

Joshua Nieuwsma
April 9, 2009 12:57 am

Anthony, et al, apologies for the length.
I followed the trail as well using Whois. Shawn F. already posted about the WHOIS site info for indigopapa.tv. (Interesting, but not particularly noteworthy – http://www.indigopapa.com is redirected to http://www.indigopapa.tv/.) Shawn noted that the the owner of IndigoPapa is Steven Bowman (whois.domaaintools.com/indigopapa.com).
What I find more interesting is looking at registration dates and IP address information, and then conducting a little web archive searching.
The IP address listed for Indigopapa.tv, using the handy Reverse IP lookup, is 213.171.196.88. This, coincidentally happens to be the same IP address used for Catlinarcticsurvey.com, and Thearcticsurvey.com (currently shut down, but more on that below).
Check out the dates that the domains were registered: ‘Thearcticsurvey.com was registered on 2007-12-18’. ‘IndigoPapa.tv’ was registered on 2008-01-26. And ‘Catlinarcticsurvey.com’ was registered on 2008-08-19. Can we say… Odd?
But it keeps going. I looked up Thearcticsurvey.com to see whether there was any history of it being an actual website, and I came across this:
http://web.archive.org/web/20080207084115/http://www.thearcticsurvey.com/. Unfortunately, the site was only up for one archived day in 2008 – February 7, 2008. One wonders why it was so quickly shut down, since the Catlin site wasn’t created until the 19th of August, 2008. We know it hadn’t been up before December 12th of 2007, since that’s when it was first registered.
Perhaps I’m behind on things, or just haven’t read enough, but I didn’t know that this Arctic Survey was supposed to have happened last year… I couldn’t see any mention of this past research and efforts on their new website. Back to the Internet Wayback Machine: on the archived page is a YouTube link. So I followed that, and found that http://www.youtube.com/user/vancoarcticsurvey is the original YouTube site for the original Survey expedition. Same people, different name – the Vanco Arctic Survey. In fact, by googling that name I discovered they were supposed to have done this thing last year:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&num=20&q=vanco+arctic+survey
http://www.itwire.com/content/view/14886/1066/
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/globalwarming/2007-10-16-arctic-explorers_N.htm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7036058.stm
It appears they were supposed to have left March 1st 2008 (assuming the captured date on the archived page is accurate, and it was to be 20 days later). I wonder what cancelled it… my guess is that the Vanco telecomm company stopped sponsoring the expedition, and so they had to cancel it for that year. Thus, now it is Catlin, and its much more spruced up.
Anyhow, the YouTube site is dated October 17, 2007 and that’s the day they posted their hilarious North Pole Ice Cap in Peril video –

Fearmongering video (Pen Hadlow, Video; Martin Hartley, Polar Bear & Walrus Photography) aside… I think they obviously followed the advice of youtube commentator PlanetThoughts and got things revamped and spruced up with ‘respectability’ for a rerun in 2009.
I do have a little experience with Flash and .fla files and web design. I am very suspicious of the looped hard-coded data. These are my thoughts: IndigoPapa does seem to have done real work, and some of it at a rather high level (London Stock Exchange, for one). If that’s the case, then at the least they’re well connected (I wonder who started the company, since it is so recent and so well placed). However, they only came into existance about 2 months, at least their website did (and they only do online stuff… so…) after the first Vanco/Catlin videos were posted on Youtube, and right after the first domain name for the expedition was created. From my searching, IndigoPapa does have a history of having clients’ files hosted in their Studio subdirectory on their domain name, so I think that’s normal for these xml files. What is more odd is that the XML files have no coding to update with new data being stored in nearby databases. Also odd is that there is no date on the file. For something as ‘scientific’ as this expedition, you’d think they’d want date/time stamps on all their data. Certainly someone could just be creating the XMl files and publishing them to the site, to be brought into the Catlin site, but as we’ve figured out that’s not happening. The files are the same for days at least. Also interesting to me is the fact that the Flash on the Catlin survey site will ALWAYS show the equipment as ‘operational’. There’s no way to update that.
Unfortunately, unless XML files have the date/time query written into the code, there’s no real way to know when the file was written without hacking the website. But it sure looks to me like someone just created something to use as a loop, and left it that way. It might not be truly intentional – perhaps they just couldn’t get the data to update the way they intended, and decided not to bother with it. But I wonder who owns this IndigoPapa company, and why they let Catlin, but no other clients, host their website on the same server. And how they got so highly placed with corporations in Britain and America without any prior online history, at least that I found.
And, as I’m finishing up this unfortunately lengthy comment, I note that I can no longer access the http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com website, although http://www.indigopapa.tv is still available and working and streaming video (do a yahoo search for indigopapa.tv). Looks like they took the Catlin survey site offline as Crosspatch apparently expected. I’m curious to see what their excuse is once the site is back up.
In closing, here’s a quote from Pen Hadow (link referenced above) when he was first interviewed by the BBC in 2007 about his expedition: “Now my level of knowledge, interest and commitment has moved me away from the adventure, and now I feel it is my social responsibility to represent her – the Arctic Ocean – as best as I am able; because she needs friends right now.” I think that about sums up the scientific integrity of this expedition.

Robert David Graham
April 9, 2009 1:17 am

I REFUTE YOUR CONJECTURE, with this link:
http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=p'en
It’s not an “XML file”, as you claim. It’s a database query that is formatted by a script into XML.
The database query has a bug that only pulls the first 3000 entries from the database. The site was correctly reporting live data until that 3000 entry limit was reached. After that point, the data appeared static and unchanging, like a file.
The simple fix would be to change the PHP/SQL script to remove that limit, or to retrieve the last 3000 entries instead of the first 3000.
There is no malicious intent to deceive, it’s a simple coding error. They tested it, and it appeared to work for a while, until it reached that limit and stopped working.
The live data is in the database. Once they fix this bug, everything will work again.
[Reply: So when they fix this, will we be able to see their frozen breath being exhaled? ~dbstealey, mod.]

Richard111
April 9, 2009 1:18 am

The resupply plane landed Wednesday, 08 Apr 2009 12:59
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/headline.aspx?postId=149
But they don’t say anything in the report.

Robert David Graham
April 9, 2009 1:20 am

Oops, the above URL does not get formatted as I want. You need to have p’en at the end, with the quote character as part of the url. Let’s see if this second attempt works:
test

Ared
April 9, 2009 1:22 am

Hi, I’m pretty new at programming websites myself, so if I’m talking noobspeak here, please excuse me.
But the link that points to the .xml file is actually a .php file. That means that prior to sending data to your browser, there is server-side processing going on. With php, you can access databases without people at the browser-side seeing what is going on. The output to the browser will look just as if the data was hardcoded in the file.
All this does not mean we’re seeing real data, just that the xml is probably fed with the most recent data from a mysql database. If the DB is not updated (we know they have problems sending data) and the query is sloppy, you will always get the most recent n rows when you request data for a date that is not in the DB yet.
If I’d programmed it, the query would result in an empty set when requesting a date for which there is no data, but maybe there was a conscious decision to show the most current data instead (looks better on the site, of course). Or they didn’t plan what to do in case of missing data, resulting in unexepected query results (in this case a loop of last known data).
I wouldn’t bet on planned deception, but being naive in what they would be able to show us. The latter fits the pattern of the whole trip better.

Robert David Graham
April 9, 2009 1:22 am

Grr, that link didn’t work either because it changes the “quote” to a “forward-quote” character, which doesn’t work. Let me try another link
‘http://dev.indigopapa.tv/clients/arctic/statsXML.php?name=p’en

Robert David Graham
April 9, 2009 1:24 am

That last link works. When you follow it, you’ll see an error message disclosing the original SQL script, with it’s 3000 entry limitation. If you are clever, you can actually overcome that limitation and pull all the entries from the database.

Graeme Rodaughan
April 9, 2009 1:29 am

This is so damn easy to verify.
Just go to the site… http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx
Check this heart rate data for Hadow
91
91.3
93.9
95.1
Hit the Refresh button and it always goes back to 91, then follows the pattern.
It’s deliberate and it’s fake – someone should hang their head in shame.
We could rename this the “Milli Vanilli” Expedition.

Robert Bateman
April 9, 2009 1:42 am

If they are where they say they are, exposed to -35 to -50C temps and dressed like they are said to be, they are long dead. Perhaps the Polar Bear ate them and the back & forth map is simply the sensors inside the bear as it travels it’s route.
The stories are simply dragged out and in the end they will report them missing, never to be found. I’m sure the Insurance Company has itself well-covered in fine print.
Now, if the helicopter did visit and bring supplies, we’d be seeing bunches of videos and live interviews, etc. Don’t you think the media would eat this up with a fork & spoon? The 3 brave IceKateers on a frolicking romp to the pole. Live from the Arctic: Tonight at 6pm.

Robert Bateman
April 9, 2009 1:48 am

Arctic Idol. Meet Ann, hear all about her ice-shatteing exploits and get the in-depth scoop on frozen soup. Extra, extra, read all about it. See pics of Ann on her way to stardom. Hear all about her lifelong obsession with ice.

Mike McMillan
April 9, 2009 1:48 am

pby (17:17:00) :
Nathan Hale said before he was hung by the British that he regrets that he had only one life to give for his country.

Hanged.
Mike the grammar n**i

April 9, 2009 1:50 am

Watch the video at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7962022.stm
Q: Why can’t you see his breath?
Q: If the temps are -30 and below why is his face uncovered and why is he not wearing gloves?
I can’t work it out. Maybe there’s an innocent explanation.

Martin A
April 9, 2009 1:52 am

The equipment supplier’s technical page states that temperature is sampled at 0.25Hz (i.e. every 4 seconds) but that the reporting frequency is every 15 seconds. Therefore no “live” reporting is possible since measurements can only ever be at least 15 seconds delayed.
Since the Catlin “live from the ice” web page is updating every 4 seconds, this can only give a false resolution of temperature. It would be more “truthful” (but less resolved), to report the latest of the several sampled temperatures, or the average of the sampled temperatures in the 15 second interval.
The website cannot both update every 4 seconds as it does, and truthfully report it as “live from the ice” without disclaimer. This is a pedantic point but just adds to the feeling that this data stinks.
It looks to me more as if the Flash was always designed to step through a multi-value data file with 4 second delay, rather than respond to real data.

Squidly
April 9, 2009 1:57 am

I am not into conspiracies, but I believe this is all a hoax, fits right into AGW. I was suspicious of the biotelemetry from the start, not from an observational standpoint, but from a logical standpoint. I thought it to be simply too amazing. This simply discredits anything coming from this stunt (for me). This kind of stunt is also quite consistent with much of the AGW mantra. If these folks actually do publish any kind of data or findings associated with this spectacle, I would encourage all to be very skeptical and do your do diligence to uncover any inconsistencies and any sort of claims.

Medic1532
April 9, 2009 2:09 am

Just left an email with Equivital pointing them to this site also asked them if they are comfortable being adverisers on a site that is using fake/recorded data from their equipment. JG

Neil Cozens
April 9, 2009 2:13 am

Had thought there was something funny going on. I was watching Ann Daniels Heartrate and saw it at 123 odd, I then re-freshed page and it was down at 89 odd. A drop of 30 bpm in qa matter of seconds !
I know she must be fit but, that’s and impressive feat – being able to lower heart rate that much and that quickly 🙂

April 9, 2009 2:29 am

Dear Nasif Nahle, I am not sure whether you have actually seen the page we are talking about. First, only Pen Hadow has these low temperatures. His companions’ temperature is reported as being 4 deg C higher. Second, the page pretends to measure both surface temperature and the internal temperature, as two different quantities for each person. Third, all the numbers are generated according to a standard regular prescription.

John Trigge
April 9, 2009 2:31 am

As of approx 1024GMT 09Apr they have reported that the resupply was successful.
They also state:
“The next leg will bring 24 hours daylight allowing the team further opportunity to progress north whilst surveying increasing amounts of sea ice each day. ”
So they are expecting INCREASING amounts of sea ice which seems to belie their aim of proving that the ice is thinning due to AGW.
Thinking about SPRITE, their ice penetrating radar, how well would it allow for not being level as I am sure the team are traveling over some very rough ice and they may be measuring at a slant angle? Does anyone have any further info on this device to see if it has any stabilisation or angle compensation? Google searches for SPRITE only bring up the Catlin survey pages – probably because they coined the acronym.

Perry Debell
April 9, 2009 2:38 am

“Catlin Arctic Survey expedition leader Pen Hadow says that, 37 days into the Project and having drilled into the ice in hundreds of different spots, his observations would seem to support this latest research.” What and whose peer reviewed research? NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Oh really!! Botht hose organisations are flawed at their hearts and I think they are not to be trusted. That’s my opinion.
“The drilling experiments I’m doing are showing the ice to be between 1.5 and 2 metres thick”, he told Independent Television News. “Scientists say that means it will not last the summer melt”.
Who are these “Scientists” Pen? A 2 metres thickness of ice is too thin to last the summer eh? We shall see, but if the expedition carries on as it going, they may not make it back with all their appendages intact. Current weather is a sunny -34°C.
Punchline of hoary British joke. “ere mister, d’you do brazing?
Explanation. “It’s cold enough to freeze the balls off a brass monkey”.

Reid
April 9, 2009 2:40 am

The lesson of this expedition is that Arctic publicity stunts should be conducted in July.

Alan the Brit
April 9, 2009 3:01 am

Pft;-))
That’s exactly what went thro’ my mind when I saw those remarks, but that’s just me I suppose! Poor old Pen he’s probalby had to cuddle up to a soft fluffy polar bear pup, just like those sitting on an icefloe in the latest c*%p from WWF advertising to Adopt a Polar Bear. Funny really, I’ve never thought of a skilled, cunning, & ruthless, natural born killer as soft cuddly & fluffy!! Perhaps it’s time for a re-show of “Kingdom of the Ice Bear” by Hugh Miles & Mike Salisbury? That wonderful programme, & equally wonderful book, showed fantastic photographs of polar bears hunting in & out of the water deep within the Arctic Circle, & even comments on how good swmmers they are! Also it possess a map on the inner fly leaf showing an area of “permanent” ice, which appears to be much smaller than the NSDIC summer melt website view. Date of programme & book – 1985!
Lance;-) We BRITONS live in BRITAIN, I know it’s confusing. As for the Prince of Fools, one can only hope his dear beloved wise old sage Mother lives for ever. On the other hand, if he becomes the Constitutional Monarch, (heaven forbid), he will have to keep his trap well & truly shut in public. He should go back to talking to his plants at Highgrove where they’ll benefit from the added CO2 he breathes over them. It is probably a case of Britons being fed up with him & his eco-speak, (although he seems a decent enough chap) that we just close our ears to it all, but deeply fear his flawed knowledge, but he has the ears & eyes of those who in turn have have his, it’s a mutual appreciation society I guess. He always has been that way inlclined ever since I can remember. Perhaps he should go to the pole himself?
Aron:-))) loved the Spike Milligan clip, 24 carat gold! He & his weird & wonderful & at times lavatorial (literally in that clip) sense of humour are sadly missed.
I’ll follow that Catlin site closely from now on. This is so embarrassing, this country used to be world leaders in the scientific process, now we seem to be world chumps at it, & more embarrassingly, pleased to be so!
AtB 😉

richard jenkins
April 9, 2009 3:04 am

The more I look, the more this looks like ‘Piltdown man’ in the artic…
scientific fraud at its best. Now all the data is on ‘standby’

POG
April 9, 2009 3:11 am

Latest message on the page :
Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.
Lol, and I just noticed that Pen hadrow has manged to clone himself, and now appears to be completing the trip with just him and his two clones.

AndyW
April 9, 2009 3:12 am

They seem to have more than that issue technology wise
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm
Bit of a disaster the whole thing it seems.
Regards
Andy

Les Francis
April 9, 2009 3:13 am

pkatt (23:13:17) :
You know of course Pen Hadow has pulled this crap before:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/rescuers-criticise-arctic-explorer-for-risking-lives-539163.html
“The British explorer Pen Hadow was rescued by plane from the North Pole yesterday – and came under immediate criticism from the emergency team “for risking lives” by the “stupid” decision to launch his Arctic mission when the pack ice was melting with the onset of spring.”

I wonder if Pen’s two latest companions are aware of this?

MIke
April 9, 2009 3:18 am

The team’s biometrics page status is now Standby with no data being displayed.

JimB
April 9, 2009 3:21 am

“Edward:
Could this mission be biased from the start? It seems at least 4 of these 23 sponsors will benefit in some way if the data collected supports AGW!”
You’re kidding, right? The stated goals were to show how BAD global warming REALLY IS. Of course it’s biased and has been from Day 1.
“Jim Cripwell:
Am I being cynical when I speculate that the Catlin expedition dont want anyone to see the raw data on ice thickness? That they wish to “process” it before making the results known? Just a thought.:”
No, not too cynical at all. Did you catch the comment from the ice that “…our measurements SEEM to agree with that…”
Thars sum seye-ence fur ya.
Regarding the “sensor” with the hand warmer, from their website:
“After a small hole is made in the ice (Using the Mora Ice Drill) this CTD is lowered from just under the ice to a depth of 300m at about 0.5 m/s”
So I stop, in -40C weather, drill a small hole in the ice with my ice drill, and then I lower this sensor 300m (1,000′) at 1/2m/sec, that’s 600 seconds? So it takes me 10 minutes to get the sensor down, and the same to retract it?…so 20mins plus the time to drill the hole. And to do this, I have to unpack all the equipment, and then pack it back up when I’m done, again, in -40C temps. This has to take an hour to do?…maybe more.
So how many of these measurements are going to be taken? And yes, as pointed out prevoiusly, the “hand warmer” notation on Caitlin’s site is kind of odd, eh?
JimB

JimB
April 9, 2009 3:26 am

“Mark:
If I were them I’d be doing my damnedest to make sure that I was not going to be made into a martyr for the cause: I’d get on the next supply plane. Actually, I’d have simply looked at the satellite data and never left the comfort of my office.
Mark”
On this, I disagree. They’re doing exactly what many of us here at WUWT have criticized others for NOT doing, and that’s getting out in the field and actually observing something.
That the thing they’re observing is their digits turning black and falling off is secondary :), and is certainly part of the science.
JimB

MartinGAtkins
April 9, 2009 3:26 am

Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.
In other words, they are looking for a way of hiding their deceit.
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx

Julie
April 9, 2009 3:26 am

Just curious, but when ths Pen Haddow was rescued last time, did they also remove his sledge & contents (including the rubbish he must have accumlated)? Or was that just abandoned…?
Usually on rescue missions, the only thing the rescuers are interested in extracting is the person(s) at risk.

Squidly
April 9, 2009 3:29 am

Sandy (20:05:11) :
Hmm, managed to isolate a swf and it is trying to contact something (dev.indiapapa,tv for those interested). Next try and see whether it gets a text file 🙁

Why don’t you just decompile the swf and look at the source code? If you search around the net, you can find flash decompilers here and there. Pretty simple exercise really. Perhaps if I get a little free time this weekend, I will go do that for you and tell you exactly what their little flash presentation is doing.

B Kerr
April 9, 2009 3:29 am

Oh dear oh dear oh dear.
Catlin has just announced
“Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.”
I wonder what caused that?

JimB
April 9, 2009 3:33 am

Regarding the hand warmers on the sensor:
“The hand warmers are presumably used after the instrument is recovered to assist in draining out any residual water before the instrument is stored.”
At first thought, “maybe”. But think about this…you take a sensor that’s in water that’s roughly .5C, so it’s already close to freezing, and you pull it out of the ice into air that’s at -40C? The only “hand warmer” I can think of that would prevent any residual water from freezing would be a torch, and only if you could get it lit at that temp.
This gets more hokey by the minute.
For some reason the whole thing makes me think of Barney and his one bullet back in Mayberry.
JimB

BrianMcL
April 9, 2009 3:39 am

Try this from the website as of 12.30pm BST:
“Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.
The biotelemetry data is captured using Equivital monitoring units, usually used by the military, first responders, emergency services and those operating in high risk and remote locations. They have been specifically designed to operate in a wide range of environments. The units have stood up extremely well so far to the rigours of extended polar travel, but some of the data does require explanation.
The first thing to note is that the data is transmitted on a delayed basis; it is not a live feed. As a project team, we explored the option of live transmissions, and this is certainly possible, using a combination of Bluetooth and Iridium technology. However, such a set-up is particularly power hungry, and given the power limitations imposed on the team (they have to carry all power supplies with them in their sledges), we opted instead to prioritise our power supply elsewhere. As such, biotelemetry data is still captured every five seconds, but it is not transmitted back to the UK in real time. The current intention is to compress this data and relay it back to the UK at the end of each and every day.
Data obviously varies according to the activity conducted by each team member at certain times of the day. The team typically drag their sledges for 75 minutes and then take a 15 minute break, and as a trio they will usually complete six or seven such sessions each day. As such, their breathing rates, heart rates and core body temperature will be high during the day, and lower during the evening, once they cease skiing.
Occasionally, however, we may see data that does not seem to fit this pattern perfectly. Sometimes this may be due to an ill-fitting monitor (which can work itself loose over a 9-10 hour sledging day) and this can produce readings that are not 100% accurate. At other times, there may be a physiological explanation. As an example, Pen has a naturally low heart rate when compared to many individuals, which incidentally makes him well suited to long distance polar travel.
Readings may also occasionally drop to zero. This can happen if a unit is removed, so that its battery can be replaced, or, in the case of core temperature, if one transmitter pill works its way out of the body’s digestive system and another pill is not immediately swallowed. As such, all of the readings above are best viewed as being indicative of how the human body performs in subzero temperatures. Given that the team are not performing in laboratory conditions, however, some erroneous data should occasionally be expected.
The data produced by the Equivital System is provided for general information only and is not intended for medical analysis within the scope of the Catlin Arctic Survey. As such, it will be analysed for general research purposes only and will not be viewed or utilised as a tool for the diagnosis or identification of the medical condition of the expedition team. This has been agreed by all members of the expedition team.”
At least we know that their support team are fans of WUWT.

Ared
April 9, 2009 3:44 am

BTW, they seem to have turned off the system in response to our inquiries:
“Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.”

Imran
April 9, 2009 3:47 am

There is a rumour that they are all in a parking lot in Arizona ……..

B Kerr
April 9, 2009 3:47 am

I was under the impression that the biotelemetry was live from the ice and we could see how they were getting on.
“The units have stood up extremely well so far to the rigours of extended polar travel, but some of the data does require explanation.
The first thing to note is that the data is transmitted on a delayed basis; it is not a live feed.”
“As such, biotelemetry data is still captured every five seconds, but it is not transmitted back to the UK in real time. The current intention is to compress this data and relay it back to the UK at the end of each and every day.”
I take it that from this statement the real-time biotelemetry web page is no longer needed as the data will be received in one batch at the end of the day.
Wish they had explained that at the start.

Christopher Wood
April 9, 2009 3:49 am

I lived in Cologne, (Koln), West Germany in the mid 1960,s and synchronised lights were installed on many of the major roads. I have often wondered why, with modern electronics they were not used in the UK. Now we know! so we use more fuel and the government get more tax! brilliant.

April 9, 2009 3:52 am

Good catch. The web site now displays zeros for all measurements and there is a statement (in small print — gotta love it):

Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.

April 9, 2009 3:53 am

The BBC now reports that the ice measuring equipment isn’t working either:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm
it has emerged that British explorers studying the Arctic are struggling with a series of technical problems.
A portable radar device, known as Sprite, designed to make millions of measurements of the ice thickness, has been dogged by breakdowns and uncertainties.
Another instrument, SeaCat, meant to measure the temperature and salinity of the water beneath the ice-cap, has malfunctioned as well.
The expedition’s organisers insist that other research – such as regular drilling through the ice – has meanwhile been carried out successfully.
The radar system, known as Sprite, is dragged behind the sledge of expedition leader Pen Hadow and is meant to gather data about the ice for transmission via satellite to researchers.
But when the expedition, the Catlin Arctic Survey, set off in late February, it encountered an unexpected wind chill as low as minus 70 degrees Celsius, and the technology failed.
So with the team’s early progress anyway hampered by the weather, the Sprite only gathered data over a total period of seven hours of trekking in the expedition’s first 18 days.
A resupply flight, which landed last month, collected the device for repairs back in the UK, and that work is now complete.
But support staff are still having trouble accessing the ice data stored inside it.
The broken SeaCat device was extracted on the first resupply flight and a replacement is due to be delivered in a fortnight’s time.
….

BrianMcL
April 9, 2009 3:53 am

And according to the BBC “London, we have a problem” their SPRITE radar isn’t working either.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm
To recap then:
1) The ice penetrating radar doesn’t work;
2) NASA have published satellite ice thickness data anyway;
3) They’ve got hypothermia and frostbite;
4) The provenance of the biotelemetary data is unreliable.
Do they really need any more reasons to come back home?

F Rasmin
April 9, 2009 3:53 am

In all likelihood, the Catlin photos are from the Ithaca Ice works movie set at Pinewood Studios UK! For some different scenes, they could be from one of the largest cold storage room in the UK namely the Esca Food Solutions operation in Scunthorpe, where all McDonald’s burgers are produced! Next time pictures of the Catlin group are shown, see if any of them are munching a freshly cooked still steaming big whoppa! (with fries).

April 9, 2009 3:56 am

Graeme Rodaughan (17:22:04) :
Perhaps we could mount a 2 week Sceptics expedition to Bali to check if Global warming was having an impact on the serving temperature of Beer?
It would be as useful.

I’d rather do a study of bikini size as it relates to the color of the sand on the beach.

Malcolm
April 9, 2009 3:58 am

Arctic team: ‘London, we have a problem’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm
It would appear that the Catlin Artic Survey have been beset with problems from the outset but have delibrately kept quiet about it till today.
I wonder why that was?
The notion that CAT has actually been collecting any meaningful data has now been knocked on the head.
CAT have been outed, if they are not bringing home the science then you cannot call this a survey. It is a PR exercise in stupidty.

April 9, 2009 4:04 am

All I can say is WOW! As a fan of “science” , although not qualified to talk in depth about the minutiae of this topic, I am not surprised at the deception involved. These people will stop at nothing to make a grab for power (and my wallet). That they aren’t smart enough to do it well also doesn’t surprise me.

MartinGAtkins
April 9, 2009 4:07 am

Data obviously varies according to the activity conducted by each team member at certain times of the day. The team typically drag their sledges for 75 minutes and then take a 15 minute break, and as a trio they will usually complete six or seven such sessions each day. As such, their breathing rates, heart rates and core body temperature will be high during the day, and lower during the evening, once they cease skiing.
How kind of them to tell us how they are going to rig the data to make it look like they are dragging sledges for 75 minutes and then resting for 15. Throw in a period of sleep temperatures and randomize it all. Next get some poor underling in the office to make sure it never develops a regular pattern and with any luck no one will notice what a bunch of phonies they are.
We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.
Yea, I can imagine they would be desperate to have it fixed before anyone else can get wind of their duplicity.

BarryW
April 9, 2009 4:09 am

The most likely, IMO, is that they had grandiose plans for providing live data and had set up the web site with that in mind but never got the hookup working. Then, though lack of diligence or because they didn’t want to admit the failure, they left that part of the website up.
But then again maybe this is how they’re actually doing it:
Scott

April 9, 2009 4:09 am

Mike Bryant (18:49:19) :
Of course, by then it will be obvious to everyone how the melt season progressed. How will they spin the anecdata if the melt is the about the same or less than 2008? How will they spin a reversal of the trend?

Look at Mikey, using the new word! The Mikinator! Mike-a-tollah…

RexAlan
April 9, 2009 4:12 am

I think Flints coment:
Why don’t I see their breath?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7962022.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7962021.stm
Is really quite significant.

Mike Bryant
April 9, 2009 4:13 am

Jeff,
hehehe… Doncha love it?! I wondered if anyone would notice…
The Mikinator

Steve
April 9, 2009 4:18 am

That biometrie data has suddenly gone blank. Only the hearts keep beating (wanna bet that’ll be the title to the theme song to the TV special, sung by the bonnie prince himself?)
Seems to indicate a 24 hour graph is now available but I can’t click through.
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx

James P
April 9, 2009 4:19 am

I hope the medics supervising this know that the information is false. I mean, you wouldn’t want them basing decisions on it, would you?
I don’t want to sound macabre, but I won’t be wholly surprised if they are all found frozen to the spot while the ‘live’ data ticks merrily away in the background…

MC
April 9, 2009 4:19 am

Based on everything I’ve read here, I would say the group has been pulled from the Arctic. This would have been done a while back when we first learned of their declining condition. More than likely the false data and other information was hurriedly put together to salvage what otherwise would have been a disaster.
Now you guys have uncovered the coverup and its going to be worse than if they had first told the truth in the first place. I can assure you this episode when presented to some credible media will work to discredit the AGW movement.

alano
April 9, 2009 4:20 am

They seem to be aware of a problem, page now says..
“Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.”
Unfortunately we now have zero confidence in any further data they publish. Bet they will say it’s now all correct with nary a mention of WUWT.

Steve
April 9, 2009 4:24 am

Didn’t see this at first glance:
Please note, we are disabling the biotelemetry data section of the website for several days. The units themselves are still functioning perfectly, but we need to address an issue with the above display. We hope to have resolved this problem in a matter of days.
To hazard a guess the Catlin crew are reading Watt’s Up and then dashing back to fix the website
That BBC stories says previous expeditions ecountered much thicker ice. Any clue as to who/when/where that might have been?

Graeme Rodaughan
April 9, 2009 4:25 am

Jeff Alberts (03:56:48) :

I’d rather do a study of bikini size as it relates to the color of the sand on the beach.

Jeff – Give the sceptic in the black hat a cigar – there are obviously many ways to serve the interests of good science…
G

Mark Wagner
April 9, 2009 4:32 am

They could at least have gone to the effort of blasting the same fake number(s) to open clients at the same time. Tsk tsk, sloppy sloppy.
Hey! These are catastrophic AGW proponents. YOU WEREN’T SUPPOSED TO CHECK THEIR NUMBERS! Facts are irrelevant. It is what the bureau of newspeak says it is.

Cassanders
April 9, 2009 4:41 am

Re CTD.
I am fairly familiar with these instruments (I use one occationally, but from another manufacturer). The hand warmer is probably just an add-on to avoid ice-jamming of the unit, possibly before, and after deployment.
When lowered into the water, I am confident the heating is switched off, and the entire unit will asjust to ambient temperature fairly rapidly. There is usually a reccomended speed for lowering and raising the unit.
BTW, the unit I employ, logs oxygen, Clorophyll-a, temperature, salinity and pressure both when descending and ascending.
Re Hypothermia.
The core temperature should normally(obviously) be well above the surface (skin) temperature. As a student way back when, I was a guinea pig in a rather large (diving) hypothermia experiment. If/when core tempreature was 35.5 C, we were immediately taken out of the experiment. I suspect this core temperature over prolonged periods is quite dangerous. At 35 C both physical and intellectual capabilities are significantly impaired.
Cassanders
In Cod we trust

Ryan C
April 9, 2009 4:44 am

I don’t understand the point of this expedition or the point of this discussion?
All that I can piece together is that these guys are in the arctic taking ice thickness and temperature measurements to see how the ice is behaving this spring. I am having a hard time figuring out what this has to do with c02 or globull warming? Even if there is NO ICE up there, how can they nail it down to c02 as the culprit? Evidence?

RexAlan
April 9, 2009 4:45 am

extremly suspect1

George M
April 9, 2009 4:48 am

The Englishman (03:53:01) and others provided a BBC link which contained:
“But when the expedition, the Catlin Arctic Survey, set off in late February, it encountered an unexpected wind chill as low as minus 70 degrees Celsius, and the technology failed. ”
As previously pointed out on WUWT, only living things respond to wind chill. “Technology” only sees the actual -40°, WHICH, PRESUMABLY, IT WAS DESIGNED FOR. OR NOT.
Another red herring from the media.

Carter
April 9, 2009 5:02 am

Just an idea for you stats loving Climate Audit types. Apparently there’s a statistical analysis that can be performed to determine if a data set has been made up? Has anybody thought to run these numbers to determine if they were ever actual biometric data, or if someone came up with the sequences out of thin air?

Mike Bryant
April 9, 2009 5:02 am

London We Have A Problem… WUWT figured out what we were about! Can you please publish this article to help cover our tracks? Please???
Thanks,
Prince, et al

jimbob
April 9, 2009 5:03 am

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm
david shukman has just been told that there are major technical problems with their equipment.
the only thing which is working it seems is the big heath robinson corkscrew type thing which tells them that “the ice is much thinner than it used to be.”
no mention of fabricated websites, of course.

Editor
April 9, 2009 5:06 am

I was going to capture a full IP trace (which includes UDP and TCP, and all the protocols that use them) while visiting http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx. However, that seems moot given that things are disabled. Hmm, claim to be disabled (e.g. Cryosphere disabling 2009’s ice cap comparisions even though all they changed was the selection form people fill in).
So, I did take a look at Pen’s data (I have flashblock installed, the swf fetch and execution only happens when I click on the display area). The only thing that happened was to “GET /flash/biotelemetry.swf”. Execution didn’t access any other site, so they must have changed the swf or a cookie or something to not access indigopapa.com.
I’ll check again when they reenable it. If they reenable it. Hah – they’re never going to reenable it.
If Catlin Arctic Survey is fraudulent about this, I’ve lost all confidence in anything they have said or will say. I’m tempted to send a note to the Catlin Group pointing out that their name is now associated with minor fraud.
I notice the DNS name “catlinfraud.com” is available. 🙂

B Kerr
April 9, 2009 5:08 am

pkatt (23:13:17) :
“you know of course Pen Hadow has pulled this crap before:”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/rescuers-criticise-arctic-explorer-for-risking-lives-539163.html
This is also Update 4 above.
If you have not checked this out then make sure you have a look at the link.
Wow!!
“The British explorer Pen Hadow was rescued by plane from the North Pole yesterday – and came under immediate criticism from the emergency team “for risking lives” by the “stupid” decision to launch his Arctic mission when the pack ice was melting with the onset of spring.”
“Steve Penikett, of Kenn Borek Air, based in Calgary, which completed the mission, said: “I wish it hadn’t taken place at this time of the year. This is the latest we have ever done a pick-up. Landing on the North Pole at this time of the year is not the brightest thing people can do because of the weather and ice conditions.
People are at risk – the ice breaks and it shouldn’t really happen. No one should expect to be picked up from there later than 30 April … Going to the Pole this time of the year is a bit stupid and you put a lot of people’s lives at risk.”
Yes this is the same Kenn Borek Air which are flying in the re-supplies.
How many more days are the Catlin three due to spend on the ice?
Will Kenn Borek fly in after 30th April to save him again?
“Mr Hadow subsisted on half-rations of nuts, chocolate and dried fruit.”
And Pen had the cheek to talk about poor Martin’s favourite snack; yes his bird food.
You know you could not write this.
Good one PKatt.

Roger Knights
April 9, 2009 5:23 am

MC (04:19:40) wrote:
“Based on everything I’ve read here, I would say the group has been pulled from the Arctic. This would have been done a while back when we first learned of their declining condition. More than likely the false data and other information was hurriedly put together to salvage what otherwise would have been a disaster.”
Wow!
“Now you guys have uncovered the coverup and its going to be worse than if they had first told the truth in the first place. I can assure you this episode when presented to some credible media will work to discredit the AGW movement.”
Tipping point?

Magnus
April 9, 2009 5:30 am

JimB (03:21:11) :“The stated goals were to show how BAD global warming REALLY IS. Of course it’s biased and has been from Day 1.”
I agree. (It’s about the AGW = politics. Prince Charles is officially behind this. WWF, who besides the adopt polar bear fraud is highly political, as top sponsor, and 4 organizations who benifit from Cap and Trade also sponsors.) In the online interview here i did this transcript of Pen Hadows answer a question (I left out some words I didn’t recognized):
“- Can you try and tell us why the survey is so important and indeed so urgent that you are undertaken at the moment?
– Well the sea ice around the north pole region […] some scientists are saying that this could become a seasonal feature only rather than a year around feature in less than 4 years from now. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its last report was suggesting 50 to 100 years, but in fact […] as scientists know it dates nearer to 2020, 2030. So we seem to be losing one of our planets defining surface glaciers, and the implications of a seasonal loss will affect almost everywhere on the planet, and almost everyone. There will be weather changes, wind changes, temperature changes, and rainfall changes largely unpredictable at this stage, given us the level of science available to us, and of course the global sea level rise will be accelerated as the protecting heat shield […] is lost …”


Gloom and doom despite there was ice free Arctic sea 6000 to 7000 years ago during the human and nature friendly holocene optimum: NGU
BTW, I think Pen’s answer “There will be weather changes, wind changes, temperature changes, and rainfall changes largely unpredictable at this stage, given us the level of science available to us” can be compared with this words from Brother Enim in Monty Pyton’s The End of the World: “- Certainly there will be a mighty wind, if the word of God is anything to go by.
Tragedies has its funny stuff. :/

Michael
April 9, 2009 5:31 am

And now it says:
“Biotelemetry – Data for March 8th 2009
Please note the above data was collected over a 12 hour period on March 8th. This gives us a fair representation of how the ice team bodies are coping in the incessant cold.
The biotelemetry data is captured using Equivital monitoring units, usually used by the military, first responders, emergency services and those operating in high risk and remote locations. They have been specifically designed to operate in a wide range of environments. The units have stood up extremely well so far to the rigours of extended polar travel, but some of the data does require explanation.
The first thing to note is that the data above is a representation of what the team have gone through on a particular day; it is not a live feed. As a project team, we explored the option of live transmissions, and this is certainly possible, using a combination of Bluetooth and Iridium technology. However, such a set-up is particularly power hungry, and given the power limitations imposed on the team (they have to carry all power supplies with them in their sledges), we opted instead to prioritise our power supply elsewhere. As such, biotelemetry data is still captured every five seconds, but it is not transmitted back to the UK in real time.”

Alan the Brit
April 9, 2009 5:31 am

I say chaps, if you really are going to Bali to study the temperature effects on beer, &/or study bikini size relative to colour of sand on the beach, I have to ask, “can I come too, I’ll buy the first round!”
Slightly OT, but seriously, has anybody heard any news about yet more Ice Tour boat trips into the Arctic to see the ice before it all melts, getting stuck in ice that shouldn’t be there according to the alarmists? e.g. the Kapitan Kolebnikov (not sure of the spelling) around this time last year?

Ryan C
April 9, 2009 5:33 am

Nobody can tell me what this experiment has to do with c02?

Editor
April 9, 2009 5:34 am

I just sent this:
To: …catlin.com
cc: …wermenh.com
Subject: Please direct this to sponsors of Catlin Arctic Survey
–text follows this line–
Folks at
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/08/catlin-ice-survey-website-recycles-biotelemetry-data
have discovered that the Survey’s
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx is not only providing
data that isn’t live, but was repeating a short segment of data logged from
who-knows-where and could be pure fiction. I believe some of that false data was alarming enough so readers referred it to you suggesting that the survey team be evacuated for their own safety.
While this certainly doesn’t reach the level of criminal fraud, lending your
name to an organization that lies about simple data like this suggests that I
should believe nothing they have said or will say.
It’s probably too late to withdraw support or revoke permission to use your
name, so I suggest you forward a copy of your corporate ethics manual to the
Survey and demand they adopt the relevant parts. I’d highlight a few
sections, e.g. one on lying to clients.
There are also reports that their radar broke and was flown home and back with
the resupply flights, there’s no mention of that on Catlin’s web site even
though they made a big thing about it being the prime data acquistion
experiment. See http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm .
This is not how good science is supposed to work!
-Eric Werme

Douglas DC
April 9, 2009 5:35 am

Hadow’s record of a really stupid mistake,is not a confidence builder.He’s no
Admunsen.Again-get them out…

Editor
April 9, 2009 5:40 am

B Kerr (05:08:32) :

pkatt (23:13:17) :
“you know of course Pen Hadow has pulled this crap before:”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/rescuers-criticise-arctic-explorer-for-risking-lives-539163.html

[snip]

Jack Green
April 9, 2009 5:41 am

I now believe after reading the posts and linking to the BBC Videos that this whole trip is a staged hoax. I watched the video and you clearly see bugs flying around in the lights. The guy is wearing a light jacket with no gloves in -30 Deg C! No way! Light snow falls off of the ice blocks; no way it’s all frozen sea water and the Arctic is a virtual desert with no precipitation. It’s too cold for gods sake to snow.
Lucy, Somebody has some spain’n to do.

John W.
April 9, 2009 5:53 am

Graeme Rodaughan (17:22:04) :
Perhaps we could mount a 2 week Sceptics expedition to Bali to check if Global warming was having an impact on the serving temperature of Beer?
It would be as useful.

I disagree. It would be far more useful.
Can I join?

RexAlan
April 9, 2009 5:54 am

From The BBC: Thursday, 9 April 2009 11:59 UK
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7991801.stm
“The radar system, known as Sprite, is dragged behind the sledge of expedition leader Pen Hadow and is meant to gather data about the ice for transmission via satellite to researchers.
But when the expedition, the Catlin Arctic Survey, set off in late February, it encountered an unexpected wind chill as low as minus 70 degrees Celsius, and the technology failed:”.
Let me get this right now.
Global warming at -70c caused the equipment to fail.
Mmmmmm!

Steve
April 9, 2009 6:01 am

Something very wrong here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7991801.stm
Money quote
“The drillings have revealed a typical ice thickness of between 1.5 – 2 metres which is far thinner than a previous generation of explorers encountered. ”
The Catlin site runs a quote from Kwok saying the jolly will provide an unprecedented set of data
Two questions: 1) what’s ‘unprecedented’ if its been done by previous generations; 2) show me the data collected by previous generations that you are comparing with.
Oh and 220m thick ice shelves melt in 35 days

B Kerr
April 9, 2009 6:03 am

Pen Haddow’s speaker profile.
http://www.tmcentertainment.co.uk/speaker-index.html?speakerid=128
“In May 2003, Pen was catapulted to international fame when he became the first person in history to sledge alone from Canada to the North Geographic Pole without any outside help.”
No mention of being air lifted off of the ice when he was going short on nuts, and dried fruit.
Being air lifted off not considered as outside help?
When you get to the top of a mountain you are half way there!!

MartinGAtkins
April 9, 2009 6:05 am

The biotelemetry data is captured using Equivital monitoring units, usually used by the military, first responders, emergency services and those operating in high risk and remote locations. They have been specifically designed to operate in a wide range of environments. The units have stood up extremely well so far to the rigours of extended polar travel, but some of the data does require explanation.
The data produced by the Equivital System
The Sultans of spin.

Pamela Gray
April 9, 2009 6:06 am

Let’s see. Ice measures were taken and compared to historical ice measures. Conclusion: The ice is thinner. But…it…isn’t…the…same…ice. And it wasn’t measured in the same place, and probably not on the same day, month, oceanic oscillation, or weather system conditions. Plus the ice that was historically measured is gone. Melted. No! Really! It went away less than 10 years later and probably less than 5 years later after it was first born. All Arctic ice melts within a few years. There is no ancient ice in the Arctic like there is on Greenland. Cores of Arctic ice reveals baby ice. Everywhere you drill. Relatively speaking. So there is no control group. None. This is just the worst designed scientific study I have ever come across. 5th graders can design a better study than this. Ice thickness is one of the noisiest data streams there is. And because of that, much more care has to be taken when designing a comparative study.

Jack Green
April 9, 2009 6:08 am

Addendum to my post: For these guys to be gone from their homes this long and if they are staging this then I would bet you could sit in front of their house and see them come and go. An investigative journalist could figure this out in a minute if they were staging this. This would be like the insurance companies following the guy on crutches that was faking an injury for a big monitary claim but was causght playing basketball or something. These guys need to be exposed!
For one reason why they would stage this hoax would be to save money. An expedition like this would cost a bunch. I also question the timing of it especially since Mr Hawdow went this late before. They picked this late date thinking that they would get video of melting ice which is what they want to show to the world. ie: the ice cap is melting. Wrong! It’s (Ice flow) not melting it’s moving with the underlieing current just like it always has and into the North Atlantic.
An earlier comment at 20:48:16 showed the Arctic Bouy Program drift patterns and temperature data. Man it’s cold up their.
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_daily_map.html
This is kind of fun when you catch an elaborate hoax. I just hope it gets into the media but you probably know the answer to that.

Jack Green
April 9, 2009 6:15 am

http://www.borekair.com/index.php?cat=contact
Anthony: I would think a phone call to these guys might yield some information on this.
These guys are the ones that rescued Hadow the last time.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/rescuers-criticise-arctic-explorer-for-risking-lives-539163.html

April 9, 2009 6:21 am

Alan the Brit (05:31:55) :
I say chaps, if you really are going to Bali to study the temperature effects on beer, &/or study bikini size relative to colour of sand on the beach, I have to ask, “can I come too, I’ll buy the first round!”

We thought you were driving! I call shotgun!

Ryan C (05:33:36) :
Nobody can tell me what this experiment has to do with c02?

It’s studying an effect without a cause.

Greg McCall
April 9, 2009 6:25 am

The Biotelemetry data appears to be “operational” again.
From the website: Biotelemetry – Data for March 8th 2009

Mike Bryant
April 9, 2009 6:28 am

From here:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/04/090406132602.htm
“First-year sea ice usually reaches 6 feet in thickness,”
The Catlin Ex perdition says that 95% of the ice measurements have been between 1.5 and 2 meters thick, or 4.92′ to 6.56’…
Looks about like the “usual” thickness to me. Of course, those may be the pre experdition measurements…
Mike

April 9, 2009 6:31 am

Jack Green (05:41:25) :
I now believe after reading the posts and linking to the BBC Videos that this whole trip is a staged hoax. I watched the video and you clearly see bugs flying around in the lights. The guy is wearing a light jacket with no gloves in -30 Deg C! No way! Light snow falls off of the ice blocks; no way it’s all frozen sea water and the Arctic is a virtual desert with no precipitation. It’s too cold for gods sake to snow.

It’s not really possible, on this planet, to be too cold to snow.

Mike Bryant
April 9, 2009 6:35 am

[snip – deleted, off color]

Jack Green
April 9, 2009 6:37 am

If the air cools to truly frigid Arctic temperatures such as -40 C and below then the moisture capacity of the air will be so low that likely not much snow can occur. Only at these extremely low temperatures is the phrase “it is too cold to snow” fairly valid.
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/222/

April 9, 2009 6:41 am

So they are risking their lives to gather lots and lots of utterly unreliable data from equipment that keeps malfunctioning. Yet I will bet that what data they do recover (no matter how dubious and unreliable), will still be exclaimed by the BBC et al as definitive proof of further continuing Arctic melt. Despite the fact that they will have NO other comparable data with which to compare it to.

Malcolm
April 9, 2009 6:41 am

The BIG problem for the Catlin Artic Survey is that they delibrately withheld all this information from the public despite the fact that this expedition is very much an exercise in public science.
Who took that decision?
They compounded that problem by foolishly recycling old biometric data as new daily updated data.
Who made that decision?
If this is how proponents of AGW do science then everyone has a right to be sceptical about this expedition.

Richard M
April 9, 2009 6:43 am

Bensford’s Law is the statistical process to uncovered fake data. Has anyone tried this on the repeating data or is the data too narrow to apply this technique?
I noted in the 2003 article it stated no one should venture on arctic sea ice after April 30th. It seems this mission was designed to do exactly that. Interesting.

Mike Bryant
April 9, 2009 6:46 am

Pen said that he is such an old hand at Arctic exploration that the ice drill is really redundant… “By tapping on the ice with this hammer I can get the ice thickness data to within .02mm just by listening to the sound it makes. Why even bother with the ice drill? Do you know how long it takes to drill a 6′ deep hole in the ice?”
NOT REALLY… I’m only kidding…
Sorry for off color comment…

Jack Green
April 9, 2009 6:54 am

I just visited their site and tried to watch the videos. It’s not video it’s only audio. Somebody needs to find their old pictures on the internet and compare them to these on the current Catlin web page to see if they are just using stock photos and playing audio recorded in their garage. The plot thickens. Liars usually have to lie more to cover for their previous lies.

Cathy
April 9, 2009 6:55 am

Hmmmm.
Read the BBC’s “London, We Have a Problem”.
Now tell me.
How odd is it that in describing the nature of the “problem” . . .
they never ONCE use the word “COLD” ?
So focused are they on the WARMING and ICE THICKNESS ( 5 references)
that the “problem” of COLD is never mentioned.
Yeah, they’ve got a problem alright.

April 9, 2009 7:00 am

Hmmm. Regarding the fact that Pen had to be extracted from the North Pole in 2003, how are we supposed to reconcile this statement from the Catlin Arctic Survey site:

“The team will be travelling on foot, hauling sledges from 81°N 130°W, across 1,000-km of disintegrating and shifting sea ice, for around 100 days…”

(100 days would mean pick up around June 10th !!!)
with this one, by Steve Penikett of Kenn Borek Air, from the Independent’s report on the 2003 ‘extraction’ :

“People are at risk – the ice breaks and it shouldn’t really happen. No one should expect to be picked up from there later than 30 April…”

I interpret this to mean that the team has literally planned to fail. Basically they have 21 more days on the ice.
One more thing I keep wanting to mention. In his posts Martin seems to think that the journey will become easier as the temperatures warm up. In fact the reverse is true. As leads open up and the ice shifts more their progress is actually going to slow down.

J. Peden
April 9, 2009 7:00 am

I blame Anthony Watts, enc., for this probable hoax, which was apparently specifically designed to counter their work in regard to actually checking the sitings of surface temperature sensors, by showing in contrast the fantastically heroic measures AGW Climate Scientists make in order to conduct their “science”. It’s humbling.

Glen Blackburn
April 9, 2009 7:02 am

Think of the children growing up and what these ” scientists” are teaching them. The damage that AGW scientists are doing is beyond measure!
Anthony, I love your site and read it daily hope to someday learn enough to contribute.

Mike Bryant
April 9, 2009 7:10 am

The weather in the Arctic is so bad that the moisture in their breath is uhhhh… solidifying, ya solidifying, and falling onto their tongues before it makes it past their teeth. Ya that’s the ticket. This is the reason that the breath was not visible in the videos.
Thank you.
Please note that the unapproved words “cold” and “ice” were NOT used in the creation of this comment.

April 9, 2009 7:18 am

I sent a mail to the expeditions press officer asking:

Is it true that the presented data do come from a static file and do not represent the actual physical condition of the team on the ice?
If that is indeed the case, can you convince us that other data from this expedition *do* respresent what they are suggested to do?

and also asked about the two videos where no breath can be seen and a speaker does not wear gloves.
This was the answer:

Dear Theo,
You will see that the biometric information on http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com has been amended to accurately state what page visitors are looking at.
The Ice Team’s scientific data, when published, is/will be actual readings taken on their survey. No question.
As for the video…. You are wrong to think the videos are strange. They were, in fact, both recorded by the team on the ice and uplifted on the first re-supply flight
Rod

mojo
April 9, 2009 7:19 am

Even people who do foolish things do not deserve to die.
Since when? Ever hear the phrase “Hold my beer and watch THIS!” ?
“Stupidity is not a sin, the victim can’t help being stupid. But stupidity is the only universal capital crime: the sentence is death, there is no appeal, and execution is carried out automatically and without pity.”
— Robert A. Heinlein

AnonyMoose
April 9, 2009 7:36 am

The BBC story mentions “Another instrument, SeaCat, meant to measure the temperature and salinity of the water beneath the ice-cap, has malfunctioned as well.” That’s the device shown in a photo with the hand-warmer fastened to it. They don’t say that the warmer was probably how they planned to warm the battery up enough for it to (briefly) work. Something didn’t work.
Also notice that the BBC article mentions that on Wednesday the original ice radar sled was delivered to the expedition along with the communications system. I think the data uplink device was inside the radar sled, which was taken away for repair a month ago. No wonder there isn’t live data on the web site.
The BBC article also mentions that broken cables crippled the radar device. Do you suppose the cables which broke are those shown in the photo — cables connecting the radar sled to the equipment sled? In intense cold, ordinary cables won’t be flexible.

B Kerr
April 9, 2009 7:38 am

“”Jeff Alberts (06:21:57) :
Alan the Brit (05:31:55) :
I say chaps, if you really are going to Bali to study the temperature effects on beer, &/or study bikini size relative to colour of sand on the beach, I have to ask, “can I come too, I’ll buy the first round!”
We thought you were driving! I call shotgun!””
Hang on there chaps, studying the effects of beer and driving!!!
(Alan the Brit, like me, we are pre-programmed to drive on the wrong side of the road, or do we drive on the left side of the road, which is right?)
No no no, do not like the sound of that, too dangerous, rather go on a jolly romp to the North Pole.
Why not try something else:
http://www.worldwildlife.org/travel/item8044.html
Now chaps we could meet up somewhere warm, with lots of cold beer.
Hopefully, these trips are being subsidised by people who are sponsoring Polar Bears. We can sit back enjoy the sun and let everyone PANDA to our needs.

Gerald Machnee
April 9, 2009 7:44 am

RE: RexAlan (05:54:29) :
From The BBC: Thursday, 9 April 2009 11:59 UK
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7991801.stm
“The radar system, known as Sprite, is dragged behind the sledge of expedition leader Pen Hadow and is meant to gather data about the ice for transmission via satellite to researchers.
But when the expedition, the Catlin Arctic Survey, set off in late February, it encountered an unexpected wind chill as low as minus 70 degrees Celsius, and the technology failed:”.
If the temperature is minus 50, it cannot drop any lower, no matter how strong the wind is. An object will cool to minus 50 more rapidly. So the minus 70 is a red herring in that respect. It does mean humans will feel colder as they are losing heat more rapidly and appropriate clothing is required. In Canada we used a cooling rate of watts per square metre until about 2001. Instead of correcting the rate in the problem area, a new system was adopted using temperatures. This makes more headlines when you can report windchill to low levels.

April 9, 2009 7:45 am

crosspatch (20:24:01) :
completely off topic (but hey, we never get an “open” thread around here 🙂
Has NASA ever done this:
Take a picture of a place, say the Orion Nebula, and six months later take another picture of the same spot, and then combine them as a stereoscopic image to make basically a 3D picture of how it would look if your eyes were as far apart as the orbit of Earth?

The Orion Nebula (also known as M42) is 1500 light years distant. The Earth’s orbit is far too small to provide any parallax effect. I have imaged it at different times http://arnholm.org/astro/deepsky/m42/
I once cooperated with another imager in Canada, we used the Scandinavia-Canada baseline to try to make a 3D anaglyph image of the Copernicus crater on the Moon using identical telescopes. The image is in the Moon section on my website. It shows a 3D effect, but it is really an illusion caused by slight different imaging times. The crater walls are too low compared to the distance to the Moon.
Regarding the topic of this thread, I think the whole story is quite sad. The Catlin survey expedition appears totally discredited wrt. providing any real information (why am I not surprised?). How could they think they could get away with such manipulation?

Brian Johnson
April 9, 2009 7:46 am

Problem? I think there is more than one…..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7991801.stm

AnonyMoose
April 9, 2009 7:47 am

The BBC hasn’t been very good at reporting the history of these explorers. How did they suddenly get information about some problems with the expedition, and what else is the BBC overlooking?
I respected the BBC. A while ago.

L Ross
April 9, 2009 7:50 am

“The first thing to note is that the data above is a representation of what the team have gone through on a particular day; it is not a live feed. As a project team, we explored the option of live transmissions, and this is certainly possible, using a combination of Bluetooth and Iridium technology. However, such a set-up is particularly power hungry, and given the power limitations imposed on the team (they have to carry all power supplies with them in their sledges), we opted instead to prioritise our power supply elsewhere. As such, biotelemetry data is still captured every five seconds, but it is not transmitted back to the UK in real time.”
Oh, ok… that makes it alright then.
I think it would have been wise as a “project team” to have explored the possibility of being honest.
Just a thought.

Brian Johnson
April 9, 2009 7:52 am

Also I thought ‘wind chill’ was only relevant to living bodies. -40ºC is the same in still air or in a wind of 30 knots to a piece of malfunctioning metallic/plastic junk. Or am I going to have to use my Easter of four nails, a hammer and two planks and nail me to a cross!

April 9, 2009 7:56 am

Dear Lubos…
First, only Pen Hadow has these low temperatures. His companions’ temperature is reported as being 4 deg C higher. Second, the page pretends to measure both surface temperature and the internal temperature, as two different quantities for each person. Third, all the numbers are generated according to a standard regular prescription.
You’re right, and it makes the thing more suspicious. 33°C is reported like Hadow’s internal temperature, which places this man at a margin of collapse by hypothermia. A drop of corporal temperature down to 35 °C is considered an emergency and it will lead to death if it is not treated immediately. Ann and Martin display normal internal temperatures, although their cardiac frequencies are excessively high. Heart beats faster when the body is under conditions of stress, i.e. when the body requires of abundant oxygenation or when the body must eliminate excess of heat from its interior.
Organizing this data:
Pen is suffering a severe hypothermia which could mean he’s already dead. No other explanation.
Ann is eliminating a high load of heat from her body through an unusual cardiac frequency which would lead her to death at some moments (160 b x ‘). Besides, Ann is breathing unusually. Normal breath frequency is 12-20 breaths per minute; her ventilation rate is 33 Hz per minute, which indicates she’s suffering a very serious respiratory illness (emphysema, for example).
Possible explanations:
1. She got a cold, pneumonia or any other respiratory illness.
2. She’s doing a kind of physical activity which could lead her to death.
3. She’s not in the Arctic, but in another warm location.
Martin is also eliminating a high amount of heat from his inner tissues, so there are three possible explanations:
1. He could be resting close to a powerful heat radiator since his breathing rate is almost normal.
2. He’s doing something which makes his heart beats hastily, but maintains his breath rate normal (nonsense hypothesis).
3. He is not in the Arctic (more plausible hypothesis).
It seems a hoax.

Jack Wedel