Guest post by Steve Goddard
Reading through the recent blog posts of the Catlin expedition, it has become apparent that they have made errors in judgment. Team member Martin Hartley is suffering from frostbite, and hasn’t been able to sleep for nearly a week.
The current temperature is -42C (-44F.) The sensible course of action would be to evacuate Martin to someplace warm where he can receive proper medical attention. Cold and lack of sleep make healing impossible and threaten his health. I have camped in tents in -30C weather, and it is all about survival – nothing else has any meaning when you are that cold.
The wet sleeping bags are apparently the result of a poor decision.
Indeed, the scientific merit of the expedition is questionable.
I made 48 snow measurements after we’d stopped walking today – the best yet.
What is the point of taking a lot of measurements at one location on the same day? Arctic ice continuously shifts and melts or freezes, and the ice they are standing on will have moved hundreds or thousands of miles by next year. The temperature is -42C. No doubt the ice is getting thicker at that temperature.
Meanwhile, the expedition sponsor (HRH The Prince of Wales) has been jetting around South America enjoying the life of entitlement currently reserved for global warming patrons. The formula is simple – as long as a celebrity keeps talking about global warming, their carbon footprint and lifestyle excesses are above reproach. Perhaps if AIG had of named their bonuses “carbon offsets,” they could be partying in South America too.
As of today, global sea ice area is again above normal.
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Just been watching the real ice flood problems in Red River Valley. It would be nice to have a post on this real weather issue.
: PFC (08:43:39) : Your quote from Catlin A. S. included this . . .
“. . . an accurate mapping of one of Earth’s largest geophysical surface features: the Arctic Ocean’s sea ice cover. ”
This was never possible unless the ice cover had shrunk to the size of NYC’s central park. All of this reminded me of the short story by Leo Tolstoy
How Much Land Does a Man Need?
Full text here: http://www.online-literature.com/tolstoy/2738/
A much shorter summary is here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_Much_Land_Does_a_Man_Need%3F
I can see some merit if in taking a large number of measurements that they are in a well documented area (grid) to allow them to characterize the roughness of the lower surface of the ice vs the apparent smoothness of the upper surface.
The question is, was this a systematic grid of measurements that will be useful or just a random walk to multiple locations?
It might have some value depending on what other data was collected at the same time, such as precise locations of the measurements and pictorial documentation of the upper ice surface appearance and any near by pressure ridge structures etc.
Their media information, implied that they would make a chain of “continuous” measurements as they moved. From their comments, it would be logical for an outside observer to assume they were stopping every so many meters taking a measurement with the ground penetrating radar, and validating it (or some fraction of them) with a bored hole to physically measure the ice and snow cover thickness to compare to the instrumental readings.
If I had to guess, I think their data gathering is degenerating into a random set of measurements without adequate controls, since they have not mentioned anything about their methodology and control measures for the measurements.
You would think such efforts to provide good data would have been documented but I have not seen it if it was.
Only time will tell on this issue I suspect.
Larry
from Twitter from Pen Hadow just now
Temperatures of -39′C are being experienced once again, as the team continue to travel north for day 28 of the expedition.
about 1 hour ago from web
Today the Catlin Arctic Survey team are switching off their lights to support Earth Hour.
about 5 hours ago from web
Temperatures have dropped off the thermometer once again, reaching lows of -40 and lower!
10:43 AM Mar 27th from web
I’m celebrating human achievement day by turning all my lights on, what sort of empty gesture is that to turn your lights off in the circumstances the team find themselves?
I think this is colder than they expected-temperatures should be -15C or so by now. I think this is a futile expedition but I admire their courage but it is bordering on stupidity.
tonyB
I AGREE STRONGLY WITH Dan Lee (07:17:43) :
I hope whoever is sponsoring that expedition is paying attention to their blog. They need to get those people out of there immediately, they seem to have lost the capacity to make rational decisions on their own.
Not that there was anything rational about that expedition to begin with…
************************
Although these gentlemen probably deserve Darwin awards, they no doubt have loved ones who will suffer if they succeed in offing themselves.
This expedition is a ridiculous risk, and a waste of life.
Get them out now.
Regards, Allan
An Inquirer. Oh, sorry, I’m stupid! My icy brain… I misunderstand all!
This is sad and laughably so. I wish no harm on my fellow man no matter their stupidity, religious or political standing but I do believe that people must face the consequences of their (stupid in this case) actions and if it brings them harm so be it. Maybe they hope the god of global warming will swoop down and save them from their plight. Have faith Caitlin Expedition, show the rest of the heathen world the dire “peril” of AGW!
This amusingly reminds me of NBC sending the equally amateur Anne Curry and her camera crew on a trek to the top of Kilamanjaro (only to stop 3000′ before summit) so they can take pictures of retreating glaciers. Why must these amateurs be put in harms way when there are easier and more valuable ways of obtaining the same data without burning all those fossil fuels jet-setting around the world to show us idiots that we’re annihilating the planet with our SUV’s?
I’m guessing that the Twin Otter supply plane which keeps them alive generates more CO2 than a light bulb.
Last summer a group of artists chartered a large ship to Greenland, in order to release a small tank of CO2 on the ice – in a symbolic protest against the rest of polluters.
So they were cold, wet, tired, and now they are in the dark.
Who makes the decision to get them out ? Those on the ice don’t seem to be able to.
G
Latest Update
With the temperatures looming near the -40C mark for yet another day, the team is now once again having to become acclimatised to some of the harshest temperatures that they’ll experience during the survey.
With northeasterly winds working against them, the team has managed to cover approximately 7.5km today, setting up camp just short of a 50-metre stretch of open water, which they came across towards the end of the day. The hope is that by morning this lead will have re-frozen and the team will be able to cross unhindered. Failing the re-freeze, Ann, Martin and Pen will have two options: ski east or west until they reach a section narrow enough to bridge across with their sledges, or don their immersion suits and swim across the water, all of which takes time and energy.
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx
It was obvious from the beginning that this was much more about PR than science, which is why they’re in the bind they’re now in. If achieving science was the goal, it would have been clear early on that their lack of preparedness had compromised any hope of accomplishing anything useful and they could have been pulled out to try again with better planning,but since the real goal was PR they must soldier on, endangering their lives and any that maybe called upon to rescue them eventually, because surrendering to the brutal cold strikes a major blow to warmist propaganda.
As a respite from this grim tale, recall the late January ski trip of 300 folks aboard the CTMA-Vacancier stuck in the ice of the St. Lawrence river.
Passenger James Gray, a filmmaker, said the cruise ship hit the icepack about 8 kilometers into the trip. . . . while the ship was stuck, the group ended up having a 24-hour party on board. “Musicians have been playing guitar, there are poets, people dancing, good food and wine, and we’re surrounded by stunning scenery,” said Gray. As for any poignant memories? “Well, what happens on the ship, stays on the ship,” joked Gray.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap_travel/20090127/ap_tr_ge/na_travel_brief_canada_trapped_cruise_ship
A cargo ship, a passenger ferry and an ice breaker that was deployed to assist the vessels also became lodged in the frigid waters. Gray said the cruise ship eventually helped free the ice breaker in a “funny turn of events”. The cruise ship continued on toward the ski area, the company said.
Some people know how to have fun. Some, not so much.
John F. Hultquist (10:52:35) :
“Regarding the Catlin expedition measurements: The quote you use says
“I made 48 snow measurements after we’d stopped
walking today – the best yet.”
While their top-of-web-site postings, under the heading “Pioneering technology” makes this statement . . .
“The Catlin Arctic Survey has developed and tested a portable,
ice-penetrating radar. This will take continuous and detailed measurements of both the snow and ice layers . . . ”
Maybe I’m a little fuzzy on the meaning of “continuous.”
As am I, the “ice thickness data” and “biotelemetry” on the website has been in “standby” mode every time I visit the site. Maybe data is being received but not shown on the website. But then why include the graphic at all on the website in that case?
“High-resolution cross-profiles of the snow and ice will be gathered every 10cm along the 1,200-km survey route. The raw data will then be processed by SPRITE’s own computer, before being transferred across to the central on-board sledge computer for compression, and then up-linked, via the Iridium satellites back to the survey’s UK Headquarters.
It will then be re-formatted and distributed to our Science Partners. ”
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/technology_sprite
I wanted to re-post this map as it has been a while since it was first noted.
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS56SD/20090316180000_WIS56SD_0004276084.pdf
This map is of the old/new ice in the western arctic. The numbers are a bit cryptic, but there is one great takeaway in the lower left, the mean 14 day comparison of temperature to normal up to March 16th 2009. It has been close to 5 degrees cooler than average for the past 2 weeks. I know that this is just weather, but that’s a good standard deviation cooler than average.
Under English Health & Safety Legislation an employer has a Duty of Care to his Employees. Likewise an employee has a Duty of Care to fellow employees and his employer; curiously this also applies between the government and troops on active duty in Iraq and Afganistan.
I suspect, but am not certain, that this “Duty of Care” also applies to any sponsors that are British based, or sponsors that have a business in Britain. I would encourage all sponsors to question the wisdom of carrying on with this mission. If anything happens to the “explorers” the Health & Safety Executive are likely to press charges against the sponsors for not doing a complete “Risk Assessment”.
In the event of anything going wrong Health & Safety always ask, “With hindsight is there anything you can think of now that should have been done to prevent this accident?” As soon as you suggest something they have got you; an imcomplete “risk assessment” means prosecution.
I wonder if anybody from our Health & Safety Executive read this blog? If so “Watch this Space”!
Why didn’t they have the Twin Otter bring them some vapor barriers the last resupply? Or even some new sleeping bags.
This is human nature people. It’s hard to believe, and terribly depressing, but human beings are indeed this stupid. They will continue to believe in and pursue something even when their imminent deaths, which prove the opposite, are staring them in the face.
I thought James Hansen protesting a coal power plant in the middle of an unseasonal snowstorm, after an abnormally cold winter, was ignorant. But this takes the cake.
I only wish that if they’re going to commit suicide on the ice in the name of AGW and “disappearing ice” that it would be televised. Let the world see them shivering, suffering, slowly freezing to death. Let their teeth chatter as they tell a news reporter by satellite feed “we’re reporting from the Arctic ice cap, where the…the…the ice is…iss…melting”, then pan the camera to show just how much ice is around them. Let the average person who has not placed their faith in almighty climate models see this first hand and declare “what a bunch of idiots.”
I’m sorry to be mean, but you can’t save human beings from themselves. The most you can hope to do is protect other human beings. If these people want to die for their faith on the Arctic ice cap, let it be publicized wide and far so that perhaps other people won’t have to die for their faith.
And now it’s very clear.
Evolution’s next phase is here.
“Survival of the smartest” is in full gear.
Darwin, indeed, is at play here:
Nature’s pruning out the merchants of fear,
For want of common sense so dear.
The skeptics, the Earth shall inherent, it’s now clear.
Steven Goddard (10:08:04) :
Per,
Good news for you.
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/
Saturday, 28th March 2009
Today the Catlin Arctic Survey team are switching off their lights to support Earth Hour.
Oh good. Because switching off what – a couple of lanterns will certainly go a long way towards compensating for the humongous “carbon footprint” of an expedition like this. Not. Are they serious? They must be losing it.
@Riewe (09:28:25)
Solar radiation and direct evaporation (ice to water vapour) due the dry air…the water temp. is about 0 C and air temp, and as you point out, about +1 C….all the heat-energy are sucked out of the air and water.
About day 250 the water temp. is about minus 1-1,5 C and the opposite happends, when the water freeze the temp. rise about 1-5 C, sometimes up to 8 C.
From day 1-100 and in the end of the year you will see some up/downs temperature between +8-10 and minus 8-10 C, it depends on the wind and air temp…..but it doesn’t matter, the temperature is about -40C, so 8-10 C more or less….it’s cold like hell.
Have they put their lights off too, to save the planet ?
Posted on the Catlin facebook page:
“Victoria, if you have any clout, give these 3 a pat on the back and get them out of there. They are frost-bitten and sleep deprived with no way of getting dry. It is ridiculous to assume that this is going to get any better, any time soon. If this is truly a science team, then let them fly out to various locations to do that work within the time frame that their funding will allow.
There is no shame in changing a plan to preserve life.”
I am concerned about their welfare.
But . . .
Is it possible they are exaggerating their condition a teeny bit?
Are they people crazy? Or just naive (stupid)?
During the last 8 days, they’ve made their best progress and advanced about 70 km. At that rate they have 93 more days and won’t be to the pole until the end of June. The original estimate was at 100 days. This new math would put them at 123 days if they have no further setbacks. I wish them no ill, but the sponsors should get them off the ice!
Let the sponsors know how you feel about this:
catlininfo@catlin.com
patrick.birley@ecx.eu
press.services@nokia.com
tburgess@hillandknowlton.com
hasan.abdat@polarcapital.co.uk
info@jenrickgroup.co.uk
contact@triplepoint.co.uk
enquiries@prometheusmed.com
info@hidalgo.co.uk
reception@canadiannorth.com
mayday@bitc.org.uk
serge.viranian@climatefriendly.com
lwaters@london.newsquest.co.uk
info@sickchildrenstrust.org