Guest post by Steve Goddard
Reading through the recent blog posts of the Catlin expedition, it has become apparent that they have made errors in judgment. Team member Martin Hartley is suffering from frostbite, and hasn’t been able to sleep for nearly a week.
The current temperature is -42C (-44F.) The sensible course of action would be to evacuate Martin to someplace warm where he can receive proper medical attention. Cold and lack of sleep make healing impossible and threaten his health. I have camped in tents in -30C weather, and it is all about survival – nothing else has any meaning when you are that cold.
The wet sleeping bags are apparently the result of a poor decision.
Indeed, the scientific merit of the expedition is questionable.
I made 48 snow measurements after we’d stopped walking today – the best yet.
What is the point of taking a lot of measurements at one location on the same day? Arctic ice continuously shifts and melts or freezes, and the ice they are standing on will have moved hundreds or thousands of miles by next year. The temperature is -42C. No doubt the ice is getting thicker at that temperature.
Meanwhile, the expedition sponsor (HRH The Prince of Wales) has been jetting around South America enjoying the life of entitlement currently reserved for global warming patrons. The formula is simple – as long as a celebrity keeps talking about global warming, their carbon footprint and lifestyle excesses are above reproach. Perhaps if AIG had of named their bonuses “carbon offsets,” they could be partying in South America too.
As of today, global sea ice area is again above normal.
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From their website:
“The Catlin Arctic Survey combines a pioneering feat of human endurance with scientific discovery on a geographic scale most would think impossible in the 21st century, an accurate mapping of one of Earth’s largest geophysical surface features: the Arctic Ocean’s sea ice cover. ”
Somebody needs to slap the bunch of them upside the head for the blatant stupidity of both the “feat” and of the purpose. The sponsors should do well to consider what may happen if this ends badly, liability and all…
I think they’re running for a Darwin Award. I don’t know whether to root for them or not. If they don’t qualify, you can bet on seeing their faces in future AGW articles about the melting of the arctic ad nauseam. If they qualify, they’ll be hailed as martyrs to the “cause” and their faces will show up in future AGW articles about the melting of the arctic ad nauseam.
[snip]
At -20C how are their sleeping bags not stiff as boards.
Do they have carbon burning heating equipment with them?
The monarchy is the lesser of two evils and has saved us from the possibility of such heads of state as Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, The Peoples Princess, Elton John or Jade Goody. Charles’s mentors do him and us a great disservice in not advising at least a modicum of reservation in his perceived espousal of the AGW cause and are indeed allowing him to expose himself to possible future ridicule as the Prince with no clothes.
As far as offsetting is concerned it is hardly remarkable that a man who famously talks to his plants should embrace the concept of planting a whole lot more trees.
[snip]
Have a look at this site from Danish Meteorological Institute. Daily mean temperature and climate north of the 80th northern parallel, as a function of the day of year.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
See the archive 1958-2009 (nothing unusual) I can’t see the global warming. Right now the melting season starts…the temp dive below average (all heat-energy sucked out of the air) due the melting process
I’ll chalk their expedition down as human achievement and nothing more. Their method for measuring ice melt is so flawed it deserves a Monty Python sketch.
Well said Roger.
The jade Goody epethet is pertinent.
If people did not have ‘royalty’ they would invent it – in the guise of ‘notoriety’.
And as the global warming anti globalisation anti G20 protesters so amply demonstrate – if we did not have religion we would have to invent it.
Meanwhile back at the ranch…! According to Cryosphere Today, the Global sea ice area has again gone above the 1979-2000 average! :o)
S.E.Hendriksen (09:07:37) :
Interesting web site link, thanks. In doing a quick scan of various years, I was struck by the consistency of the ~90 day summer temps. The average summer temp barely gets above +1C. Most years track the average very closely, which would tend to indicate the melting is not atmospheric heat transfer. Convection of daylight warm temps and solar absorption may play a role, but one would have to think that warmer ocean circulation is the biggest factor. You’re right, however, that there appears to be no significant atmospheric warming during the summer months in this graphic display.
A bit offtopic but relevant to the final line about AIG, I think the financial sector and energy companies mey earn money from cap and trade. It will look like this:
http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/nicholson_financial-wizards-solve-problem.jpg
–
I agree that this pointless expedition shall be stopped immediately. The last blog, “Psychological stressors”, by the consultant psychologist is about the peerless mental strength of the team, bla-bla… :/
I wonder who is going to share the proceeds from the books, miniseries and movie that will show how these “heros braved unspeakable hardships” in order to help save the planet.
I’m waiting with excitement to see their latest report featured on the BBC highlighting and in support of The Earth Hour.
Sarcasm…!
Having wintered over in the Antarctic, and a proud member of the -200deg club (please don’t ask that is possible. It does relate to a sauna, bunny boots and a short jog) – all i can say is – these men are either foolish, or zealots. A combination of the two will be deadly.
Look at it this way. when the Prince of Wails, aka, the Royal Buffoon-in-waiting, leaves England, the average IQ there jumps notably. When he gets where he is going, the average IQ takes a sudden big dive.
Denigration by ridicule.
The photo shows a possibly very dangerous situation for someone perhaps parked well below the peak of what looks like a sea-ice pressure ridge. These are formed by wind and ocean current forces that move the sea ice around on the surface and cause it to pile up in those ridges. Wnen I was working briefly at Point Barrow in the winter of 1948 (studying ice formations gosh — already 61 years ago!) I was warned by a native about pressure ridges, particularly the tall ones. In my younger day, I liked to climb them, and recall some were even a dozen feet higer than the surrounding rough ice surface. They should be approached with great caution because polar bears sometimes lurk just on the other side, waiting for a jucy meal. Worse yet, their coloration makes them virtually invisible against a white snow/ice background. Love those bears, but don’t feed them with a short-lived regret.
bob p.
The Catlin Expedition is striving for the 2009 Ig Noble prize for climate research that should never be repeated.
They also appear to be on their way to obtaining the Dodo award.
Per,
Good news for you.
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/
What we are observing here is a pathology, not scientific zeal.
Trevor (09:26:34) :
And as the global warming anti globalisation anti G20 protesters so amply demonstrate – if we did not have religion we would have to invent it.
Who woulda thunk that a Guardianista wants you to follow new UN approved global religions
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/andrewbrown/2009/mar/26/religion-rowan-williams-atheism
“As of today, global sea ice area is again above normal.”
Perhaps nit-picking, but it is quite arbitrary to give label “normal” to the 1979-2000 average. The long-run average might be significantly less (at least for the Arctic), but conceivably vice versa as well. But it is questionable mathematics to claim that a 21-year period yields a NORMAL level when oscillations can take 70 or more years.
Steve,
The global sea ice anomaly (red, bottom line) seems to contain the “failing sensor” data from Jan-Feb of this year. This is the “area” measurement. The ice “extent” data from here . . .
http://www.nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
. . . does not show a decline in this time frame. The third week of January shows a stall in the growth. In the last few days the increase stopped and the trend has turned down. While ice extent did not reach the 1979-2000 average it is well above (500,000 sq. km) the 2006-2007 line.
Perhaps it is the “area” versus “extent” definitions causing my confusion about this. What is the better “number” to watch.
Regarding the Catlin expedition measurements: The quote you use says
“I made 48 snow measurements after we’d stopped
walking today – the best yet.”
While their top-of-web-site postings, under the heading “Pioneering technology” makes this statement . . .
“The Catlin Arctic Survey has developed and tested a portable,
ice-penetrating radar. This will take continuous and detailed measurements of both the snow and ice layers . . . ”
Maybe I’m a little fuzzy on the meaning of “continuous.”
I’d love to hear the reasons why the team chose to leave their vapor barrier bag liners behind. They must have assumed it would be a quick trip, with relatively warm temps. Even assuming that, why leave behind a piece of equipment that can save your life, fits in a pocket and weighs half a pound?
Did these guys “adjust” their actual amount of Arctic experience?
John,
I would suggest ignoring the minor fluctuations and differences in the NSIDC graphs. Note that the current deficit is in the Sea of Okhotsk, which is an isolated basin that normally melts completely before the summer arrives.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_extent.png
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.14.html
In other words, the fact that NSIDC ice extent is slightly below “normal” provides essentially no useful information with respect to the upcoming summer minimum.
An Inquirer (10:28:59).
I don’t really understand what you’re trying to say? The “normal” is the average a specified period of time, just as you say, but your own phrase “long-run average” have no definition. It’s impossible to understand what you’re argue… (The earth has becoming a lot colder since 7000-8000 years ago, and also since several millions of years ago; so what is the meaning of your phrase?)
I’d suspect you to be one of these anthropogenic global warming proponent (in opposite of climate realist who denounce the doom and gloom, silly IPCC models etc.) who argues against realists, so I googled a comment by you half a year ago: “I believe that it is fair to say that melt levels in the last few weeks have exceeded the hopes of skeptics.”
In another comment you say that emotions is important but lessimmportant than data — that’s wise! But are you consistent to that notion?
Fluctuations in sea ice now doesn’t prove anything, but these are now used by global warming-“scientists” and proponents as the canary in the coal mine. Actually anyone who defend the idea that we have a anthropogenic global warming where the sea ice now is the canary in the coal mine has to accept arguments against that double error (both the idea that ice is now melting as a consequences from strong AGW and that a net melting actually occurs) where it’s natural to point out that the trend right now is positive in comparison with reference point measurements since the they started.
Anthropogenic global warming proponents who argues at sites like this — apparently yourself — too much defend corrupt ideas used in a propaganda war, e g by saying that skeptics had hoped for other sea ice data. That’s not a valid argument, or even an argument at all. The hypothesis is objectively false and thus any hope for data who discredit the false statement is perfectly legitimate!