River ice in Alaska: "pretty good proxy for climate change in the 20th century"

“Levels of GCRs appear to have a relationship to the state of the stratospheric polar vortex and, more indirectly, to the state of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The polar vortex circles the globe at around 450N, and has widespread climatic effects over the Northern Hemisphere. Higher levels of GCRs are one of several factors that appear to be associated with a stronger, colder polar vortex.”
Link http://www.hartnell.cc.ca.us/faculty/mercurio/download.html

I was just looking at the population numbers for Fairbanks. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairbanks,_Alaska
It appears that the city has spread fairly dramatically and there is now a county with a population close to 100000.
http://factfinder.census.gov/
Perhaps there is someone with some local statistical information that would allow us to plot indicators of any UHI or other local effects – e.g., # building permits, miles of road, tons of road salt, sewage volume, etc.

http://www.gi.alaska.edu/ScienceForum/ASF3/317.html
Many references to extensive forest fires in Siberia, Alaska and northern Canada are found in the writings of eighteenth and nineteenth century explorers. Some recognized that lightning was the cause of forest fires, but the explorers frequently attributed the fires to native peoples. Authorities on forest fires, including H. J. Lutz of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, have concluded that early native peoples were, in fact, responsible for many fires.
Some fires were intentionally set to get rid of mosquitos or possibly to increase moose browse. Others were accidental from signal fires or camp fires going out of control.
Indians were not the only starters of fires. In 1915 the “Kennicott fire” was intentionally set by a woodcutter to create fuel wood for use at the Kennicott mine. Sixty-four thousand acres (100 square miles) was burned. In the same year, sparks from a train set a fire that burned 384,000 acres near Chitina.
Prior to 1940, there were a number of large fires in Alaska and Yukon that each burned more than 100,000 acres. Among the biggest were the 1,900,000-acre fire at Lake Iliamna in 1935, the Sheenjak River burn of 312,000 acres in 1937 and the Mosquito Fork Flat fire along the old Valdez-Eagle trail that burned over 900,000 acres in 1922.
In Alaska alone it is estimated that there are about 200 million acres of “burnable” land, of which about half is actually forested. Only about seven percent of the burnable land can be considered commercial forest capable of producing 20 cubic feet per acre (1.4 cubic meters per hectare) or more of wood annually.
Virtually all the northern forest has been burned over during the last 200 years. It is estimated that a million acres each year is burned, on the average.

By this measure, spring comes to central Alaska 10 days earlier than in 1960, said geophysicist Martin Jeffries at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks”
I’m no climate scientist – just a guy who stumbled onto this website and have found it very interesting. My stupid question is: if we”ve been seeing spring come 10 days earlier (on average) than in 1960, do we know if winter has been coming any earlier? thanks.
John v

My 2002 report of the 2002 Nenana Ice Classic, published under the Irish spelling of my name, can be found here:
The Nenana Ice Classic 2002 or How to Lose Money Gambling on Global Warming
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/nenana_ice_classic_2002.htm
With some degree of immodesty I reviewed my words from 2002 and found them to be prophetic!
So what is the significance of the Nenana Ice Classic Proxy? As is the case with most Phenology Proxies, the real answer is probably: not very much. Just as tree rings measure cellulous formation during the growing season and leaf emergence measures prevailing spring temperature and precipitation conditions, the Nenana Ice Classic is measuring the time of ice breakup on the Tanana River at Nenana Alaska, during a 32 day period from late April to late May; nothing more and nothing less. Many events will affect ice breakup, including ice thickness, air temperature, water temperature, water levels and flow rates. To conjecture that a log of the Nenana Ice Classic will prove or disprove the existence of global warming, or global cooling for that matter, is idle speculation with absolutely no basis in fact. This is not to imply that Phenology is without value. Provided the data are accurate, evaluated objectively and their limitations are clearly understood, they can be of great scientific value. The problem with Phenology is that it is now being used advance a political agenda rather than a scientific one. Of course, if the Global Warmers were to publish the full data as illustrated above, they would be due an apology, but on their past record is seems doubtful that one will be needed.
Given that the paper from 2001, was worthy of publication in Science, why have we not heard more about the Nenana Ice Classic in the last seven year? Perhaps this graphic, complete through 2008, will explain.
http://i283.photobucket.com/albums/kk316/MichaelRonayne/Nenana_Ice_1917_2008.jpg
We live in a world where Science publishes the trivial but politically correct work of Drs. Segarin & Micheli while the very significant work of Drs. Livingston and Penn is rejected.
I am looking forward to the 2009 results for the Nenana Ice Classic.
Mike

BarryW, “Looking at the dates …”
Well, waddya know! A bell curve. Who would have thought it?

Some similar interesting data.
“The first long-term studies of climate change took place along the coast of Hudson Bay at places like Churchill and York Factory. They are part of the longest and most comprehensive set of weather observations in North America, if not the world.
As part of daily activities at any Hudson’s Bay Company trading post, weather patterns, rainfall, and casual observations were recorded and eventually archived by the company. In fact during the early 1800s, there were at least three times as many weather stations in Northern Manitoba as there are today. There is even evidence that a weather station was planned for Cape Merry in the mid-1700s.
Weather records for York Factory and Churchill date all the way back to 1714 and 1718, respectively. The Hudson’s Bay Company kept accurate records to assist in their business decisions regarding the fur trade. Their archives contain journals from over two hundred trading posts throughout the Canadian northwest.
York Factory, as the main depot and administrative center for the Hudson’s Bay Company, has the most complete set of meteorological records. Its first weather entry was made by James Knight on September 6, 1714. ”
snip
Short-term climate change is not a new phenomena. Over the fifteen years between 1720 and 1735, the first snowfall of the year moved from the first week of September to the last. Also, the late 1700s were turbulent years. They were extremely cold but annual snow cover would vary from ‘extreme depth to no cover’. For instance, November 10th 1767 only one snowfall that quickly thawed had been recorded. June 6, 1791 many feet of snow in the post’s gardens. The entry for July 14, 1798 reads ‘…53 degrees colder today than it was yesterday.’
We seem to be running in roughly forty year cycles of warming and cooling – within a longer term warm period. This century has been marked by a warming period (1910-1940) followed by a cooler period through to the 1970s. The latest warming trend began in the late 70s, early 80s.”
snip
http://www.polarbearalley.com/hudson-bay-post-climate-change.html

Shawn Whelan wrote:
“We seem to be running in roughly forty year cycles of warming and cooling – within a longer term warm period. This century has been marked by a warming period (1910-1940) followed by a cooler period through to the 1970s. The latest warming trend began in the late 70s, early 80s.”
Good observations on the cycles, bro. There are many such cycles (which of course the Wall Street Journal conveniently left out):
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (which has very recently shifted over to its cold phase)
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. (which is still in its warm phase and helped give us a snow drought in the SE USA). Hey don’t laugh….our snow droughts are 8 inches annually LOL.
The El Nino / Southern Oscillation index (OK he did mention briefly the “La Nina).
So, for the many of the great minds who believe that the atmosphere is greatly affected by the different types of oceanic forcing described above….just so happens probably just as many of those great minds are watching another animal….that is the SUN.
And we are about due for another Grand Minimum (and if Father Sun keeps up his snoozin’ right now…well…..).
So the quote in the WSJ article about trends over a 150 year period, while remarkable, are not totally unexplainable.
This is especially true in light of the fact that many scientists believe that SIGNIFICANT minima in sun activity occur every so often (the exact intervals are being debated right now)….and such events lower the global temperatures.
Some have reported that the solar activity of the past 75 years is its greatest it has been in the past 10,000 years, and thus, that there shows a good correlation as to why all of the warming trends over the same period.
It amazes me the WALL STREET JOURNAL and the BBC and other reputable news organizations…that even they…would be “snowed” by the AGW orthodoxy.
I remember when I as a kid I was taught to believe that the world began in 4004 BC.
There are many people today who STILL believe that.
In similar vein, the New International Church of Anthropgenic Global Warming….seem to think the world BEGAN about 150 YEARS ago when modern records started being kept!
Chris
Norfolk, VA

Roger Sowell,
I think that the ice road metric is utter bollocks. Their link to the modelling project comes up empty, so no help there. The graph should be useful for any oil exploration company planning work in Alaska (winter time only, ground is a soggy mess in the summer) but is so intertwined with changing regulatiory requirements that one cannot infer anything about temperature. Given that we have temperature records for Alaska, many not tainted with UHI or microsite issue, that one wonders why such a unspectacular “proxy” is posted at all.

For the sportsman amongst the readership, wishing to advance the social programs in Nenana Alaska, I am going to share some graphics with you. If anyone scores please remember the Tip Jar on our host’s website.
http://www.surfacestations.org/donate.htm
Any calculations involving ice breakup should be done using Julian dates and times, with all times calculated in Alaskan Standard Time. Not unexpectedly, there is a very strong time-of-day signature associated with breakup as the following graph demonstrates. Could the Sun be melting the ice?
Nenana Ice Classic Breakup By Hour Of Day (1917-2008)
http://i283.photobucket.com/albums/kk316/MichaelRonayne/Nenana_Breakup_Hour_1917-2008.jpg
Surprisingly between 11PM and Midnight, there is an unexpected increase in ice breakup events. Anyone who has even vacation by a lake in the winter is familiar with ice cracking during the night as it cools and expands. I suspect we are dealing with a similar phenomenon here. If you do decide to wager, don’t forget the witching hour.
The following graphic shows breakup by Julian Day. The highest probability breakup is Julian day 120. There is a cluster of breakup days from 125 to 128. And let us not forget the outliers at days 110 and 141.
Nenana Ice Classic Breakup By Julian Day (1917-2008)
http://i283.photobucket.com/albums/kk316/MichaelRonayne/Nenana_Breakup_Day_1917-2008.jpg
So when will breakup occur this year? While Alaska had an incredibly cold winter this year, there was a warm spell at the end of January and beginning of February. Currently ice conditions are very similar to 2008. Last year, breakup occurred at 2008/05/06 22:53AST, which was Julian day 127 and hour 23, which is right in the middle of the second high probability cluster refinanced above. I would expect similar results this year for the Julian day but you can pick your own hour. How sure of this am I? Not very, this is why it is called gambling.
I did try many other ways display the data, including correlations with other climate events such as the PDO, but none of them were very convincing. In case any of you are wondering, I have never gambled on Nanana or any other game of chance unless I am donating money to a local charity. My belief is statistics is such that I know that the house is always going to win.
Mike

“”” Oliver Ramsay (15:12:56) :
The meter-thick ice in these northern rivers doesn’t melt away by early May; it is broken up and swept downstream by the melting of snow in the drainage. Soot lying on the sidehills would certainly accelerate the freshet. The Tanana empties into the Yukon a good thousand kilometers from any tidal influence. IMO an early break-up reflects the warmth, sunshine and rain of the previous two or three weeks. “””
So I gather that Alaska has some sort of gravity shielding dome over it that prohibits tidal forces from operating in the State ? That’s a pretty cool trick if you can pull it off.
Here in California, we have lots of places that aren’t near any coast; but they still get their fair share of earthquakes that get triggered during the proper tidal phases. And they pretty much come on schedule just when that USGS outcast Jim Berquist (I think that’s his name) says they will.
Maybe California should ask Obama for a gravity shield too.
George

January 2009 CET was 3.0. Average for the whole series (from 1659) is 4.6.
It was about the 210th warmest.
It was actually the 24th COLDEST since 1914.
Who are these guys?