Sol has been without a cycle 24 spot since January 13th. Today the spotless streak was broken with this high latitude and correct polarity spot. The current sunspot number is now at 12 according to SWPC.
The SOHO Magnetogram image below shows how the North-South polarity is oriented:
The real question is: how long will it last? Most of the cycle 24 spots we’ve seen so far have very short lifetimes, winking out in a day or two.
My research also suggests SC24 should begin to ramp up….but it also says, dont expect anything like Dikpati or Hathaway might predict. A figure of 50SSN might be more likely.
I posted this a couple of days ago.
http://www.gpsl.net/climate/data/TSI_2009-02-24a.png
It is the tail end of the TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) satellite data (http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/index.htm).
This satellite is too new to have seen a whole solar cycle and so no-one knows what a solar minimum looks like.
If a more complete trace would help I should be able to do something.
If Solar Cycle 24 did start in late June 2008, which is 6.5 months after the first sunspot in January 2008, then the cycle seems to be starting really slowly. The NOAA solar progression graph’s amplitude is constantly being pushed back and sometimes even lowered.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html
John M Reynolds
Has anybody been keeping a record of SC24 sunspots by hemisphere? Are most spots occurring in the north?
Geoff,
there are files with spots seperated by hemisphere..
SIDC:
http://sidc.oma.be/DATA/index.html
see daysssnv0.dat, monssnns.dat, readme.dat
Klaus
I doubt that this spot would have been detected using the same technology available during the Maunder or Dalton minimums.
So perhaps the Maunder and Dalton minumums really had a few miniscule sunspots undectectable with the instruments at the time. So to compare our numbering using current technology, with the numbers recorded centuries ago, may not be an accurate comparison.
Kind of goes back to the old adage “If a tree falls in the forest and nobody is there to hear it, does it make a sound?”
If miniscule sunspots occured during the Maunder and Dalton Minimums, but technology didn’t exist to detect them, does that really mean they didn’t happen?
Geoff,
oops, readme.txt ist the right name for the readme file.
Too, there is a graph north vs. south:
ftp://omaftp.oma.be/dist/astro/sidcdata/wnosuf.png
evanjones (23:36:27) :
> Like I say, you had to be there.
Sorry I missed it. Next time please send me an invitation. My life (such as it is) is incomplete!
Late breaking news from The Register:
I commissioned a translation:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/02/25/jstor_climate_report_translation/
—
Japanese scientists have made a dramatic break with the UN and Western-
backed hypothesis of climate change in a new report from its Energy
Commission.
Three of the five researchers disagree with the UN’s IPCC view that
recent warming is primarily the consequence of man-made industrial
emissions of greenhouse gases. Remarkably, the subtle and nuanced
language typical in such reports has been set aside.
One of the five contributors compares computer climate modelling to
ancient astrology. Others castigate the paucity of the US ground
temperature data set used to support the hypothesis, and declare that
the unambiguous warming trend from the mid-part of the 20th Century
has ceased.
The report by Japan Society of Energy and Resources (JSER) is
astonishing rebuke to international pressure, and a vote of confidence
in Japan’s native marine and astronomical research.
Alan the Brit: I saw that BBC segment too. There were as you say many pronouncement about a crisis coming and warming in the Antactic but no kind of evidence was shown. Just a few potiticos and a reporter coming out of a tent. Pretty lame for a BBC segment.
Leif:
Thanks for your input. Some folks get a bit carried away and your comments help bring readers back to reality.
Geoff,
Seems like there should be a butterfly graph out there somewhere for that.
I think just two SH spots. 994 and 1009. There has been at least one “ambiguous” spot that was difficult to tell (was close to the equator, which would tend to indicate 23 but magnetic signature was inconclusive).
Well the new sunspot is all but gone. Another short lived spot (barly more than a spec realy). I’m still not convinced that SC24 is starting yet.
PS OT what is up with Bob Barker? I think he has gone a little crazy in the head.
Wouldn’t it be interesting to find out if the period 1700-1830 was riddled with sunspecs.
@Leif Svalgaard (23:01:43) :
Alan the Brit (22:45:59) :
What’s the betting this sunspot will fizzle out fast?
probably doing it as we speak…
Looks to be about gone in the latest SOHO image.
It has really faded by now. Bye bye.
A new might be coming in the southern hemisphere. large latitude. There is a bright spot in stereo behind http://solarcycle24.com/
See my post on Sunspot changes at SWPC:
SWPC Moves The Goalpost
http://solarcycle24com.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=482
MIke
Tim Channon (01:58:25) :
This satellite is too new to have seen a whole solar cycle and so no-one knows what a solar minimum looks like.
TSI has been measured by other satellites since 1978.
For Leif or other observers of Old Sol –
If the RC Theory and the SSRC are not on the mark, then please help to clarify the impacts of the various solar changes on climate, if you would please.
What if any current theories are more mainstream, which tie Climate Change to Solar Events? Are there a handful of major Solar-Climate Change theories for which data is being collected and analyzed?
Are there credible theories which predict a coming cooler climate,
based upon theories or events not tied to CO2?
Are the theories tied to specific solar changes or to other specific changes outside of our solar system?
I know there are many complexities that are not easily covered in a fine site like this. However, for those who want a general score sheet listing of the major players – the heavy hitters so-to-speak – that may make a difference, perhaps commentors could supply an overview list? Maybe this could be part of another main WUWT article, if there are appropriate inputs.
Thanks in advance for any inputs.
SUNSPOTS
Ok, I’ve searched a number of sites for a count of sunspot vs time, identified by cycle. I haven’t found one yet, though they surely must exist?
What I have found is that a “sunspot number” isn’t a count of individual visible solar disturbances. It’s a number calculated according to the formula… R=k (10g+s),
So, if I read that correctly, a “single” small spot would, with k and g equal to 1, give the sunspot number of eleven, not one.
The other thing is that when I see tabulations of “sunspot number” it seems to be calculated from data on ALL solar “spots,” without regard for which cycle they are a part of.
While that is probably not news to the majority of you, it was to me, as was the fact that I can nowhere find where anyone seperately graphs sunspot no., vs time by cycle no. which is surprising to me. Is it that since it isn’t considered important beyond the chaotic transition phase, and contains no information that can be fit by current theory, so it is ignored?
…which brings me to my point, which is…
Does anyone have an embarrassingly obvious source that I should have been able to find myself, where that information is available?
Thanks
Ben (08:56:09) :
If the RC Theory and the SSRC are not on the mark, then please help to clarify the impacts of the various solar changes on climate, if you would please.
These are big questions and many people are not quite rational about them [politics, atrology, etc]
What if any current theories are more mainstream, which tie Climate Change to Solar Events?
There are no mainstream theories.
Are there a handful of major Solar-Climate Change theories for which data is being collected and analyzed?
No, but solar and atmospheric data are being collected as a matter of course. Some fringe theories [cosmic rays, etc] claim they are taking special data, but they have gone quiet of late.
Are there credible theories which predict a coming cooler climate, based upon theories or events not tied to CO2?
Not that are tied to the Sun, there are some ocean circulation theories. I don’t know how credible they are.
Are the theories tied to specific solar changes or to other specific changes outside of our solar system?
lots and lots, but nothing credible.
Thanks in advance for any inputs.
You may get an avalanche of pet theories pushing this or that, ranging from Venus-Saturn syzygies to galactic spiral arms and dark clouds.
Is it gone? I cannot really make out anything but a spec, wait, I wiped my monitor and the spec disappeared.
A question (as I am not very knowledgeable about solar activity), has SC24 actually started yet? Also, has SC23 actually ended yet?
Thank you to anyone who can simply answer these 2 questions for me as I don’t really have a very good understanding of how one cycle ends and another begins.
Thanks!
I can still see it in the latest image (12.48 UT), looks like an Bxo type.