Congratulations!
OT – PÖLAR SPLIT MAY OCCUR –
Weather forecasters here in Europe are predicting a Polar Split for February.
This means that frigid air will spill down to lower latitiudes, while the pole itself could warm by as much as 30°C. That’s what I just read at some German site.
Anyone hear anything about this? Is this rare?
Ozzie,
Steve McIntyre may want to look at the data and program used to make that suspicious lookin hockey stick. 😉
Pierre Gosselin
February 1, 2009 4:36 am
Jon,
Steve has extraordinarilly high criteria that have to be met. No editorialising, unrelated chatter or opining. No ad hominem attacks.
I have had probably half or more of my posts removed, and often rightly so.
Don’t take it personally!
He even deleted the post of a very well known climate scientist not long ago – whose name escapes me at the moment.
It’s one reason his blog is so highly respected.
Good work Anthony, Team, Contributors and of course, the visitors. Working as one giant team with engaging and differing viewpoints make this an excellent place to learn. Thank you all.
Roger H
February 1, 2009 5:54 am
Congratulations Anthony. I am not a scientist of any type but have really been drawn to this site since Ed Wallace introduced it to me last year. My main question would be how can this information get distributed to larger amounts of people in a shorter time and therefore possibly enlighten our Politicians to the situation? I realize there might not be a way to change their minds but it might cause some to realize that there is an alternate view to what’s actually happening. Other than letters to the Editor, does anyone have any other ideas?
Caleb
February 1, 2009 5:57 am
Pierre Gosselin (04:29:58) :
Likely the German site is referring to the “unprecedented” warming in the Stratosphere which has recently occurred.
Check out this site:
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml
(I removed the “h t t p : / / w w w .” from the start to avoid problems with the spam filter.)
Warmth in the stratosphere often results in cooling in the troposphere beneath. Therefore the anomaly at the north pole will likely generate all sorts of discussion.
I fully expect to see this news on WUWT soon, and to read interesting comments. (Alarmists will see the anomaly as being due to CO2, while Skeptics will see it as being due to solar powers, I’ll betcha.) And, because the subject and discussion are so fascinating and well-handled on WUWT, readership will continue to soar.
Time and Newsweek ought heed. They might be more worth reading.
wws
February 1, 2009 6:55 am
I consulted a certain Mr. H. about your posted readership graph, and using advanced computer modeling focused on the most recent trend, he was able to conclusively prove that this blog will cease to exist 12 hours from now. For this reason he advised that we immediately pass a government initiative placing all blogging under direct governmental supervision. The centerpiece of this supervision will be a cap and trade system whereby all blogs will be allocated a certain number of “hits” per month. Those who go over the cap and have too many “hits” will be deeemed to be taking more than their “fair share” and they will be forced to pay a financial penalty to those governmentally approved blogs who do not achieve what the appointed planning boards determine is their “fair share” of hits. The goal at first will be equality and stability; of course once that is achieved the goals will be shifted to make sure that current governmental policies are supported and that reactionary opponents are slowly eased out of the system.
This should guarantee complete stability in both the upper and lower blogospheres – what could go wrong? In fact, Mr. G., an expert in governmental policy, is so convinced that it is a good idea philosophically that he argues that we should do this regardless of the cost since it is the only way to guarantee the existence of online civilisation in the years to come.
Mr. H. and Mr. G. assure me that all good and decent net citizens will immediately spring to the support of such a wonderful and altruistic proposal such as this. And they tell me that they know how to deal with the rest.
Well done. You’re getting traffic from us as I regularly post snippets and link back here from Traders-Talk.
Mark
Pierre Gosselin
February 1, 2009 7:22 am
Caleb,
THANK YOU!
I’m wondering how rare (or common) this is.
I think this could be very interesting.
Does this happen when we have protracted solar mins? I also hope that WUWT can shed more knowledge about this.
Some European Weather Offices see it potentially developng later this month.
The implications are frigid temps in Europe and a very warm polar cap. This phenomena is well documented in the Antarctic.
pyromancer76
February 1, 2009 7:42 am
Thanks, Anthony, contributors, and commentors. I feel like I have been on a thrilling, wild ride as I Iearn, correct old knowledge and feel the heart and mind swelling with hundreds, at least, of new questions. I am an academic (non-science) who once taught “IT” — thankfully only from the perspective of “unconscious communication” and the film’s methods of persuasion — but I read Science and Nature (past tense for the latter) faithfully and “knew” then that the “climate science” was gold-plated.
Now my printer is constantly cranking, my files are filling, my computer is jumping all over the worlds of science and engineering — physics, chemistry, biology, mathematics, forecasting, environment sciences, paleontology, and so forth. As a bonus, I have rarely laughed so hard as I do at the witty comments here. This is good for the heart and soul!
Leon Brozyna, “Quality articles aimed toward a lay audience”. Yes, and it also feels like the professionals take us very seriously and are willing to go to great lengths to inform us of fundamental principles and those freshly emerging — and to have a real go at and with each other. And Anthony sits there and rubs his chin in wonder. “What have I wrought”, he thinks.
Thanks to Lucy Skywalker for her excellent introductory essay. I have sent and given it to many.
WhatsUpWithThat is not only the best science blog, but simply THE BEST.
Robert Bateman (22:42:47) : “This site is perfect for those who are wondering why they are getting frozen while Global Warming is kicked in their face.”
I second that; it’s the current situation in a nutshell. Well done, Anthony and friends!
Brian Macker
February 1, 2009 7:58 am
“What’s down with that?
(The last leg of the graph, I mean.)”
That’s the forecast of February traffic provided by global warming models.
Only having one days worth of data they filled the rest in with zeros.
Pierre Gosselin
February 1, 2009 8:13 am
Here’s the German RTL report in English: http://www.rtl.de/wetter/wetter_974285.php?media=artikel2&page=1&set_id=14628
Is the Siberian Winter coming Back?
Everything begins with the polar cyclone.
Are we threatened by a nasty cold snap in February? Signs of this happening are mounting. About 13 Kilometer above the Arctic one finds a blank spot on the map of meteorlogical knowledge. There in the stratosphere a permanenet huge storm occurs in the wintertime with speeds of up to 300 km/hr. It’s a storm turning around the earth’s rotational axis – it’s called the polar cyclone. What does that have to do with Siberian Cold snaps in Europe? A lot!
Photo: Picture-perfect Iceland Low. The polar cyclone is a distant relative. (NASA)
The weather engine is broken
The stratospheric storm has no driect influence on the weather, as it is located a level above the layer responsible for our weather. But this polar cyclone has a profound indirect influence on our weather conditions. It is the engine that brings Europe the weather from the west. It brings us the most low pressure systems from west to east, and thus keeps our climate relatively mild and wet. But now this engine, the polar cyclone, is broken. In Moscow temperatures will plummet about 12°C in the next few days. The first signs for us (western europe) were found already in the middle of January as the polar cyclone split in two. This phenomena is rare, but not unknown. The consequences on Europe’s February temperatures is now being hotly debated by meteorologists. We are not sure but many meteorologists now feel that an extreme winter event will occur beginning in the middle of February which could plunge temperatures in Western Europe to double-digit below zero (Celsius) and bring snow.
More exact forecasts are not yet available. A polar cyclone split occurs too rarely and impacts us too indirectly to allow researchers to draw any conclusions. Normally reliable weather models are in this case clueless, and predict this or that. Also wetter.de-forecasts until the middle of February are possibly overly warm. In the course of the next few days, it will become clearer and clearer as to where temperatures for Europe are headed.
——–
I wonder what effect a Polar Cyclone Split has on North American weather.
Ray
February 1, 2009 8:32 am
MOre and more people are waking up to the truth, the scientific truth that is!
Anthony,
Congratulations on the hits. Your site is great. Much of the mathy detail (oh, those statistics) is way over my head, but I get the general gist of most of it. (Because I am such an amateur, I just lurk.) Thank you for you hard work and dedication. I distill much of what you say into layman’s terms and use it in my blog and with my kids and coworkers. Congrats again!
Clive
February 1, 2009 10:04 am
Anthony … and all who contribute here,
Congratulations and “Thank You” for a most informative site.
Well done.
Best wishes,
Clive
Alberta, Canada
DaveCF
February 1, 2009 10:14 am
Hmmm, correlation does not equal causation but the rise in WUWT seems to equal the rise in CO2. Can we overlay these graphs and create a publishable, peer reviewed paper? It would make as much sense as much of the published ‘climate science’.
apb
February 1, 2009 10:27 am
Thank you Anthony –
I believe the continuing uptick is due both to the great knowledge demonstrated at this site, as well as the intellect shared by those commenting.
I have shared this site with many people – all have thanked me.
Kind regards, and please keep up the great work.
E.M.Smith (23:42:51) :
FWIW, news reports a volcano near Anchorage has a large hole opening in the side and is ‘getting ready to blow’.
Anthony’s graph above eerily resembles the mountainous Anchorage skyline, with half of that mountain missing. Is the enormous success of this site, unlike CO2, now a leading indicator of natural events? Brian Macker (07:58:58) :
That is too true! Pierre Gosselin (08:13:27) :
Normally reliable weather models are in this case clueless, and predict this or that.
Refreshingly honest!!
Excellent job Anthony! This site illustrates that integrity breeds success. I am hopeful that integrity will eventually win the debate on AGW. I can only imagine the increasing workload you and the other moderators have experienced. But, it doesn’t stop me from commenting. :<)
Benjamin P.
February 1, 2009 11:48 am
Things I have learned with my contributions of page views to your busiest month ever.
1. Anecdotal evidence trumps most everything
2. Al Gore is a Douche
3. That Hansen guy is too.
4. Models suck
5. Warmists are energy communists who want to take away your SUV
6. There is a secret geo-political agenda, but that agenda is loosely defined (or not at all)
7. Warmists are only in it for the money
8. Its easy to lie with statistics
9. Figure Captions (something I tell my students are the 2nd most important part of papers (the first being the abstract)) tend to be lackluster and non-informative.
10. Description of methodology does not happen
11. Conclusions are met with 100% certainty (even if it is just a qualitative assessment of some graphs)
12. CO2 does nothing to climate
13. Sun spot cycles, while poorly understood, are the only short-term climate driver
14. Consensus is bad (something we can all agree on)
Did I miss anything?
oh right…
15. Pseudoscience and science are indistinguishable.
Man, a bit of a harsh assessment on my part with respect to this blog (something we determined a few posts back that I did not like very much…which isn’t true, I very much enjoy reading this blog).
Anthony, Congrat.
These stats put a smile on my face.
Now that the government and the MSM are now joined lovingly hand in hand, it’s nice to still see a place where you can follow truth’s bread crumbs wherever they lead.
OT – Also, if anyone is interested in Aurora Borealis alerts texted to their cell phone, I wrote some code that broadcasts them for free via Twitter: http://www.softservenews.com/Aurora-Alerts-to-Cell-Phone-Via-Twitter.htm
(Assuming cycle 24 gets out of the blocks)
Anthony,
Someone reflected on how long the blog may live on if you gave it away.. I noted other’s responses but mine would be “most likely not until till hell freezes over”.
But with a result like that I believe there is no stopping now with your finest hour yet to come. In the meantime time, well done on this milestone…and also to your excellent contributors.
Curiously today I saw a parallel with someone else, which I will share. On reading about the break thru on the gigapixel barrier I also received an email about some amazing photo work by Julian Kalmar. This shows an image of the restored Piaristen Church in Vienna with clear as crystal 1.3 gigapixels quality for a composite of 200+ photos that can rotate to give 360 degree views of everything. http://photoartkalmar.com/Photoart%20Kalmar%20high%20res/Gigapixel/Piaristenkircheflash.html
It seems to me that your graph also shows a similar count of over 1.3 million hits. Like Kalmar’s work, yours also joins a large composite of perspectives to provide great clarity and 360 degree views of debated issues. I noted also that Kulmar like you shows equal humility about his great work.
Frank Lansner
February 1, 2009 1:03 pm
Truly Amazing 🙂 Congrats!!!!!
All the best best best wishes!!!!
K.R. Frank
Congratulations!
OT – PÖLAR SPLIT MAY OCCUR –
Weather forecasters here in Europe are predicting a Polar Split for February.
This means that frigid air will spill down to lower latitiudes, while the pole itself could warm by as much as 30°C. That’s what I just read at some German site.
Anyone hear anything about this? Is this rare?
Ozzie,
Steve McIntyre may want to look at the data and program used to make that suspicious lookin hockey stick. 😉
Jon,
Steve has extraordinarilly high criteria that have to be met. No editorialising, unrelated chatter or opining. No ad hominem attacks.
I have had probably half or more of my posts removed, and often rightly so.
Don’t take it personally!
He even deleted the post of a very well known climate scientist not long ago – whose name escapes me at the moment.
It’s one reason his blog is so highly respected.
Good work Anthony, Team, Contributors and of course, the visitors. Working as one giant team with engaging and differing viewpoints make this an excellent place to learn. Thank you all.
Congratulations Anthony. I am not a scientist of any type but have really been drawn to this site since Ed Wallace introduced it to me last year. My main question would be how can this information get distributed to larger amounts of people in a shorter time and therefore possibly enlighten our Politicians to the situation? I realize there might not be a way to change their minds but it might cause some to realize that there is an alternate view to what’s actually happening. Other than letters to the Editor, does anyone have any other ideas?
Pierre Gosselin (04:29:58) :
Likely the German site is referring to the “unprecedented” warming in the Stratosphere which has recently occurred.
Check out this site:
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml
(I removed the “h t t p : / / w w w .” from the start to avoid problems with the spam filter.)
Warmth in the stratosphere often results in cooling in the troposphere beneath. Therefore the anomaly at the north pole will likely generate all sorts of discussion.
I fully expect to see this news on WUWT soon, and to read interesting comments. (Alarmists will see the anomaly as being due to CO2, while Skeptics will see it as being due to solar powers, I’ll betcha.) And, because the subject and discussion are so fascinating and well-handled on WUWT, readership will continue to soar.
Time and Newsweek ought heed. They might be more worth reading.
I consulted a certain Mr. H. about your posted readership graph, and using advanced computer modeling focused on the most recent trend, he was able to conclusively prove that this blog will cease to exist 12 hours from now. For this reason he advised that we immediately pass a government initiative placing all blogging under direct governmental supervision. The centerpiece of this supervision will be a cap and trade system whereby all blogs will be allocated a certain number of “hits” per month. Those who go over the cap and have too many “hits” will be deeemed to be taking more than their “fair share” and they will be forced to pay a financial penalty to those governmentally approved blogs who do not achieve what the appointed planning boards determine is their “fair share” of hits. The goal at first will be equality and stability; of course once that is achieved the goals will be shifted to make sure that current governmental policies are supported and that reactionary opponents are slowly eased out of the system.
This should guarantee complete stability in both the upper and lower blogospheres – what could go wrong? In fact, Mr. G., an expert in governmental policy, is so convinced that it is a good idea philosophically that he argues that we should do this regardless of the cost since it is the only way to guarantee the existence of online civilisation in the years to come.
Mr. H. and Mr. G. assure me that all good and decent net citizens will immediately spring to the support of such a wonderful and altruistic proposal such as this. And they tell me that they know how to deal with the rest.
Well done. You’re getting traffic from us as I regularly post snippets and link back here from Traders-Talk.
Mark
Caleb,
THANK YOU!
I’m wondering how rare (or common) this is.
I think this could be very interesting.
Does this happen when we have protracted solar mins? I also hope that WUWT can shed more knowledge about this.
Some European Weather Offices see it potentially developng later this month.
The implications are frigid temps in Europe and a very warm polar cap. This phenomena is well documented in the Antarctic.
Thanks, Anthony, contributors, and commentors. I feel like I have been on a thrilling, wild ride as I Iearn, correct old knowledge and feel the heart and mind swelling with hundreds, at least, of new questions. I am an academic (non-science) who once taught “IT” — thankfully only from the perspective of “unconscious communication” and the film’s methods of persuasion — but I read Science and Nature (past tense for the latter) faithfully and “knew” then that the “climate science” was gold-plated.
Now my printer is constantly cranking, my files are filling, my computer is jumping all over the worlds of science and engineering — physics, chemistry, biology, mathematics, forecasting, environment sciences, paleontology, and so forth. As a bonus, I have rarely laughed so hard as I do at the witty comments here. This is good for the heart and soul!
Leon Brozyna, “Quality articles aimed toward a lay audience”. Yes, and it also feels like the professionals take us very seriously and are willing to go to great lengths to inform us of fundamental principles and those freshly emerging — and to have a real go at and with each other. And Anthony sits there and rubs his chin in wonder. “What have I wrought”, he thinks.
Thanks to Lucy Skywalker for her excellent introductory essay. I have sent and given it to many.
WhatsUpWithThat is not only the best science blog, but simply THE BEST.
Robert Bateman (22:42:47) : “This site is perfect for those who are wondering why they are getting frozen while Global Warming is kicked in their face.”
I second that; it’s the current situation in a nutshell. Well done, Anthony and friends!
That’s the forecast of February traffic provided by global warming models.
Only having one days worth of data they filled the rest in with zeros.
Here’s the German RTL report in English:
http://www.rtl.de/wetter/wetter_974285.php?media=artikel2&page=1&set_id=14628
Is the Siberian Winter coming Back?
Everything begins with the polar cyclone.
Are we threatened by a nasty cold snap in February? Signs of this happening are mounting. About 13 Kilometer above the Arctic one finds a blank spot on the map of meteorlogical knowledge. There in the stratosphere a permanenet huge storm occurs in the wintertime with speeds of up to 300 km/hr. It’s a storm turning around the earth’s rotational axis – it’s called the polar cyclone. What does that have to do with Siberian Cold snaps in Europe? A lot!
Photo: Picture-perfect Iceland Low. The polar cyclone is a distant relative. (NASA)
The weather engine is broken
The stratospheric storm has no driect influence on the weather, as it is located a level above the layer responsible for our weather. But this polar cyclone has a profound indirect influence on our weather conditions. It is the engine that brings Europe the weather from the west. It brings us the most low pressure systems from west to east, and thus keeps our climate relatively mild and wet. But now this engine, the polar cyclone, is broken. In Moscow temperatures will plummet about 12°C in the next few days. The first signs for us (western europe) were found already in the middle of January as the polar cyclone split in two. This phenomena is rare, but not unknown. The consequences on Europe’s February temperatures is now being hotly debated by meteorologists. We are not sure but many meteorologists now feel that an extreme winter event will occur beginning in the middle of February which could plunge temperatures in Western Europe to double-digit below zero (Celsius) and bring snow.
More exact forecasts are not yet available. A polar cyclone split occurs too rarely and impacts us too indirectly to allow researchers to draw any conclusions. Normally reliable weather models are in this case clueless, and predict this or that. Also wetter.de-forecasts until the middle of February are possibly overly warm. In the course of the next few days, it will become clearer and clearer as to where temperatures for Europe are headed.
——–
I wonder what effect a Polar Cyclone Split has on North American weather.
MOre and more people are waking up to the truth, the scientific truth that is!
Congratulations! This is a fantastic site!
Anthony,
Congratulations on the hits. Your site is great. Much of the mathy detail (oh, those statistics) is way over my head, but I get the general gist of most of it. (Because I am such an amateur, I just lurk.) Thank you for you hard work and dedication. I distill much of what you say into layman’s terms and use it in my blog and with my kids and coworkers. Congrats again!
Anthony … and all who contribute here,
Congratulations and “Thank You” for a most informative site.
Well done.
Best wishes,
Clive
Alberta, Canada
Hmmm, correlation does not equal causation but the rise in WUWT seems to equal the rise in CO2. Can we overlay these graphs and create a publishable, peer reviewed paper? It would make as much sense as much of the published ‘climate science’.
Thank you Anthony –
I believe the continuing uptick is due both to the great knowledge demonstrated at this site, as well as the intellect shared by those commenting.
I have shared this site with many people – all have thanked me.
Kind regards, and please keep up the great work.
Just an ANECDOTE!
But I simply cannot resist:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/4423919/Snow-and-freezing-weather-threaten-to-shut-down-Britain.html
I’d like to know what them bloody bloke Brit AGwarmists are thinking now.
Make em go out in their bathing suits…
In Germany it’s official – January was 1.5°C colder than the 1961-90 average.
E.M.Smith (23:42:51) :
FWIW, news reports a volcano near Anchorage has a large hole opening in the side and is ‘getting ready to blow’.
Anthony’s graph above eerily resembles the mountainous Anchorage skyline, with half of that mountain missing. Is the enormous success of this site, unlike CO2, now a leading indicator of natural events?
Brian Macker (07:58:58) :
That is too true!
Pierre Gosselin (08:13:27) :
Normally reliable weather models are in this case clueless, and predict this or that.
Refreshingly honest!!
Excellent job Anthony! This site illustrates that integrity breeds success. I am hopeful that integrity will eventually win the debate on AGW. I can only imagine the increasing workload you and the other moderators have experienced. But, it doesn’t stop me from commenting. :<)
Things I have learned with my contributions of page views to your busiest month ever.
1. Anecdotal evidence trumps most everything
2. Al Gore is a Douche
3. That Hansen guy is too.
4. Models suck
5. Warmists are energy communists who want to take away your SUV
6. There is a secret geo-political agenda, but that agenda is loosely defined (or not at all)
7. Warmists are only in it for the money
8. Its easy to lie with statistics
9. Figure Captions (something I tell my students are the 2nd most important part of papers (the first being the abstract)) tend to be lackluster and non-informative.
10. Description of methodology does not happen
11. Conclusions are met with 100% certainty (even if it is just a qualitative assessment of some graphs)
12. CO2 does nothing to climate
13. Sun spot cycles, while poorly understood, are the only short-term climate driver
14. Consensus is bad (something we can all agree on)
Did I miss anything?
oh right…
15. Pseudoscience and science are indistinguishable.
Man, a bit of a harsh assessment on my part with respect to this blog (something we determined a few posts back that I did not like very much…which isn’t true, I very much enjoy reading this blog).
Anthony, Congrat.
These stats put a smile on my face.
Now that the government and the MSM are now joined lovingly hand in hand, it’s nice to still see a place where you can follow truth’s bread crumbs wherever they lead.
OT – Also, if anyone is interested in Aurora Borealis alerts texted to their cell phone, I wrote some code that broadcasts them for free via Twitter:
http://www.softservenews.com/Aurora-Alerts-to-Cell-Phone-Via-Twitter.htm
(Assuming cycle 24 gets out of the blocks)
Anthony,
Someone reflected on how long the blog may live on if you gave it away.. I noted other’s responses but mine would be “most likely not until till hell freezes over”.
But with a result like that I believe there is no stopping now with your finest hour yet to come. In the meantime time, well done on this milestone…and also to your excellent contributors.
Curiously today I saw a parallel with someone else, which I will share. On reading about the break thru on the gigapixel barrier I also received an email about some amazing photo work by Julian Kalmar. This shows an image of the restored Piaristen Church in Vienna with clear as crystal 1.3 gigapixels quality for a composite of 200+ photos that can rotate to give 360 degree views of everything.
http://photoartkalmar.com/Photoart%20Kalmar%20high%20res/Gigapixel/Piaristenkircheflash.html
It seems to me that your graph also shows a similar count of over 1.3 million hits. Like Kalmar’s work, yours also joins a large composite of perspectives to provide great clarity and 360 degree views of debated issues. I noted also that Kulmar like you shows equal humility about his great work.
Truly Amazing 🙂 Congrats!!!!!
All the best best best wishes!!!!
K.R. Frank