UPDATE 1/28: Full text of Dr. Theon’s letter has been post on the Senate website and below.
This is something I thought I’d never see. This press release today is from the Senate EPW blog of Jame Inhofe. The scientist making the claims in the headline, Dr. John S. Theon, formerly of the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Arlington, Virginia, has a paper here in the AMS BAMS that you may also find interesting. Other papers are available here in Google Scholar. He also worked on the report of the Space Shuttle Challenger accident report and according to that document was a significant contributor to weather forecasting improvements:
The Space Shuttle Weather Forecasting Advisory Panel, chaired by Dr. John Theon, was established by NASA Headquarters to review existing weather support capabilities and plans and to recommend a course of action to the NSTS Program. Included on the panel were representatives from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Air Force, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
For those just joining the climate discussion, Dr. James Hansen is the chief climate scientist at NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and is the man who originally raised the alarm on global warming in 1988 in an appearance before congress. He is also the keeper of the most often cited climate data.
EPW press release below – Anthony
Washington DC, Jan 27th 2009: NASA warming scientist James Hansen, one of former Vice-President Al Gore’s closest allies in the promotion of man-made global warming fears, is being publicly rebuked by his former supervisor at NASA.
Retired senior NASA atmospheric scientist, Dr. John S. Theon, the former supervisor of James Hansen, NASA’s vocal man-made global warming fear soothsayer, has now publicly declared himself a skeptic and declared that Hansen “embarrassed NASA” with his alarming climate claims and said Hansen was “was never muzzled.” Theon joins the rapidly growing ranks of international scientists abandoning the promotion of man-made global warming fears.
“I appreciate the opportunity to add my name to those who disagree that global warming is man made,” Theon wrote to the Minority Office at the Environment and Public Works Committee on January 15, 2009. “I was, in effect, Hansen’s supervisor because I had to justify his funding, allocate his resources, and evaluate his results,” Theon, the former Chief of the Climate Processes Research Program at NASA Headquarters and former Chief of the Atmospheric Dynamics & Radiation Branch explained.
“Hansen was never muzzled even though he violated NASA’s official agency position on climate forecasting (i.e., we did not know enough to forecast climate change or mankind’s effect on it). Hansen thus embarrassed NASA by coming out with his claims of global warming in 1988 in his testimony before Congress,” Theon wrote. [Note: NASA scientist James Hansen has created worldwide media frenzy with his dire climate warning, his call for trials against those who dissent against man-made global warming fear, and his claims that he was allegedly muzzled by the Bush administration despite doing 1,400 on-the-job media interviews! – See: Don’t Panic Over Predictions of Climate Doom – Get the Facts on James Hansen – UK Register: Veteran climate scientist says ‘lock up the oil men’ – June 23, 2008 & UK Guardian: NASA scientist calls for putting oil firm chiefs on trial for ‘high crimes against humanity’ for spreading doubt about man-made global warming – June 23, 2008 ]
Theon declared “climate models are useless.” “My own belief concerning anthropogenic climate change is that the models do not realistically simulate the climate system because there are many very important sub-grid scale processes that the models either replicate poorly or completely omit,” Theon explained. “Furthermore, some scientists have manipulated the observed data to justify their model results. In doing so, they neither explain what they have modified in the observations, nor explain how they did it. They have resisted making their work transparent so that it can be replicated independently by other scientists. This is clearly contrary to how science should be done. Thus there is no rational justification for using climate model forecasts to determine public policy,” he added.
“As Chief of several of NASA Headquarters’ programs (1982-94), an SES position, I was responsible for all weather and climate research in the entire agency, including the research work by James Hansen, Roy Spencer, Joanne Simpson, and several hundred other scientists at NASA field centers, in academia, and in the private sector who worked on climate research,” Theon wrote of his career. “This required a thorough understanding of the state of the science. I have kept up with climate science since retiring by reading books and journal articles,” Theon added. (LINK) Theon also co-authored the book “Advances in Remote Sensing Retrieval Methods.” [Note: Theon joins many current and former NASA scientists in dissenting from man-made climate fears. A small sampling includes: Aerospace engineer and physicist Dr. Michael Griffin, the former top administrator of NASA, Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a PhD in meteorology, and formerly of NASA, Geophysicist Dr. Phil Chapman, an astronautical engineer and former NASA astronaut, Award-Winning NASA Astronaut/Geologist and Moonwalker Jack Schmitt, Award-winning NASA Astronaut and Physicist Walter Cunningham of NASA’s Apollo 7, Chemist and Nuclear Engineer Robert DeFayette was formerly with NASA’s Plum Brook Reactor, Hungarian Ferenc Miskolczi, an atmospheric physicist with 30 years of experience and a former researcher with NASA’s Ames Research Center, Climatologist Dr. John Christy, Climatologist Dr. Roy W. Spencer, Atmospheric Scientist Ross Hays of NASA’s Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility]
Gore faces a much different scientific climate in 2009 than the one he faced in 2006 when his film “An Inconvenient Truth” was released. According to satellite data, the Earth has cooled since Gore’s film was released, Antarctic sea ice extent has grown to record levels, sea level rise has slowed, ocean temperatures have failed to warm, and more and more scientists have publicly declared their dissent from man-made climate fears as peer-reviewed studies continue to man-made counter warming fears. [See: Peer-Reviewed Study challenges ‘notion that human emissions are responsible for global warming’ & New Peer-Reviewed Scientific Studies Chill Global Warming Fears ]
“Vice President Gore and the other promoters of man-made climate fears endless claims that the “debate is over” appear to be ignoring scientific reality,” Senator James Inhofe, Ranking Member of the Environment & Public Works Committee.
A U.S. Senate Minority Report released in December 2008 details over 650 international scientists who are dissenting from man-made global warming fears promoted by the UN and yourself. Many of the scientists profiled are former UN IPCC scientists and former believers in man-made climate change that have reversed their views in recent years. The report continues to grow almost daily. We have just received a request from an Italian scientist, and a Czech scientist to join the 650 dissenting scientists report. A chemist from the U.S. Naval Academy is about to be added, and more Japanese scientists are dissenting. Finally, many more meteorologists will be added and another former UN IPCC scientist is about to be included. These scientists are openly rebelling against the climate orthodoxy promoted by Gore and the UN IPCC.
The prestigious International Geological Congress, dubbed the geologists’ equivalent of the Olympic Games, was held in Norway in August 2008 and prominently featured the voices of scientists skeptical of man-made global warming fears. Reports from the conference found that Skeptical scientists overwhelmed the meeting, with ‘2/3 of presenters and question-askers hostile to, even dismissive of, the UN IPCC’ ( See full reports here & here ] In addition, a 2008 canvass of more than 51,000 Canadian scientists revealed 68% disagree that global warming science is “settled.” A November 25, 2008, article in Politico noted that a “growing accumulation” of science is challenging warming fears, and added that the “science behind global warming may still be too shaky to warrant cap-and-trade legislation.” More evidence that the global warming fear machine is breaking down. Russian scientists “rejected the very idea that carbon dioxide may be responsible for global warming”. An American Physical Society editor conceded that a “considerable presence” of scientific skeptics exists. An International team of scientists countered the UN IPCC, declaring: “Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate”. India Issued a report challenging global warming fears. International Scientists demanded the UN IPCC “be called to account and cease its deceptive practices.”
The scientists and peer-reviewed studies countering climate claims are the key reason that the U.S. public has grown ever more skeptical of man-made climate doom predictions. [See: Global warming ranks dead last, 20 out of 20 in new Pew survey. Pew Survey: & Survey finds majority of U.S. Voters – ‘51% – now believe that humans are not the predominant cause of climate change’ – January 20, 2009 – Rasmussen Reports ]
The chorus of skeptical scientific voices grow louder in 2008 as a steady stream of peer-reviewed studies, analyses, real world data and inconvenient developments challenged the UN’s and former Vice President Al Gore’s claims that the “science is settled” and there is a “consensus.”
On a range of issues, 2008 proved to be challenging for the promoters of man-made climate fears. Promoters of anthropogenic warming fears endured the following: Global temperatures failing to warm; Peer-reviewed studies predicting a continued lack of warming; a failed attempt to revive the discredited “Hockey Stick“; inconvenient developments and studies regarding rising CO2; the Spotless Sun; Clouds; Antarctica; the Arctic; Greenland’s ice; Mount Kilimanjaro; Global sea ice; Causes of Hurricanes; Extreme Storms; Extinctions; Floods; Droughts; Ocean Acidification; Polar Bears; Extreme weather deaths; Frogs; lack of atmospheric dust; Malaria; the failure of oceans to warm and rise as predicted.
# # #
ORIGINAL FULL TEXT LETTER SENT VIA EMAILS:
From: Jtheon [mailto:jtheon@XXXXXXX]
Sent: Thursday, January 15, 2009 10:05 PM
To: Morano, Marc (EPW)
Sent: Tuesday, January 13, 2009 12:50 PM
To: Morano, Marc (EPW)
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I agree heartily on better gas mileage. But there will be a point of diminishing returns, something like the Smart Car. The gasoline version gets barely better mileage than my wife’s Toyota Matrix, yet you can barely fit two adults and a week’s worth of groceries into the thing. The Smart car isn’t.
And I heartily agree on cologne! Though my beef is with women who don’t know the meaning of the word “moderation” when applying perfume and makeup. Fortunately my wife is allergic to most of that crap, so she stays naturally beautiful 😉
With all due respect.. there is no use for these discussions with flanagan… the folks at globalwarminghoax.com have *unsuccessfully* been toiling for close to a good few months over trying to find answers from him and change err…certain attitudes… (with some very strange discussions!!)
So prevent argumentitive circling by resisting those urges…
just smile and wave…. 😉
And flanagan,,, join the Goracle and preach in snow-blasted Washington…
This piece provides a nice peek behind the curtain. This Hansen guy strikes me as a man who has found a way to advance his name by preaching on the failings of the modern world – think especially of his sermons about Faust, usufruct, and comparisons he makes to Nazis . I am sympathetic to a lot of the aims of the environmental movement but preachy environmentalism is as big a turn off as creation science. If you want to convince me there is a crisis don’t run around proclaiming the sky is falling.
You mean like diesel locomotives? They’re exactly the same technology. Electric drive motors driven by power from diesel generators. Electric motors, as far as I know, give you more torque with better response than IC engines. The problem is delivering power to the electric motors. In a locomotive you have enough space to provide big diesel generators for continuous power to the electric motors. Correction, it’s not the same as a Prius, since the Prius will actually be driven by the gas motor under certain conditions. But essentially they’re the same.
philincalifornia (19:27:02) :
So far, since being inaugurated, Obama has not come out and said anything totally stupid as far as I know … I have faith in them, mostly because Chu is an excellent scientist, and Obama watched what bad counseling on weapons of mass destruction did to Dubya.
Totally stupid? Well, that’s setting the bar mighty low. The proposed budget is laden with funding to study climate change with the focus primarily on reducing GHGs. Allowing states to dictate CO2 standards to automakers at the same time they are on the ropes.
If Obama doesn’t slam on the brakes soon, this WILL be his WMD issue…
…AGWMD?
We’re still waiting for anything to show us in a coherent and (loosely) proved way that any fluctuation in “global” temperatures (as silly a metric as that is), are anything but natural. There has been no observed warming since the 1930’s peak, none since the MWP as best as we can tell, or the RWP or previous interglacials.
ok, difficult to follow because of hectic posts. About the “above natural variability”, a few references
Natural variability of the climate system and detection of the greenhouse effect
T. M. L. Wigley & S. C. B. Raper
Nature 344, 324 – 327 (22 March 1990)
Simulations of Atmospheric Variability Induced by Sea Surface Temperatures and Implications for Global Warming
Arun Kumar, Ants Leetmaa, and Ming Ji
Science 28 October 1994:
Vol. 266. no. 5185, pp. 632 – 634
Model assessment of the role of natural variability in recent global warming
R. J. Stouffer, S. Manabe & K. Ya. Vinnikov
Nature 367, 634 – 636 (17 February 1994)
External Control of 20th Century Temperature by Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings
Peter A. Stott, S. F. B. Tett, G. S. Jones, M. R. Allen, J. F. B. Mitchell, G. J. Jenkins
Science 15 December 2000: Vol. 290. no. 5499, pp. 2133 – 2137
Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries
Michael E. Mann*, Raymond S. Bradley* & Malcolm K. Hughes†
NATURE | VOL 392 | 23 APRIL 1998
among others were one can find conclusions such as “More than 80% of observed multidecadal-scale global mean temperature variations and more than 60% of 10- to 50-year land temperature variations are due to changes in external forcings.”
I said the MWP has nothing to do with that because we know it wasn’t related to a change in the CO2 concentration
Alex: what a nice post you did there.You’re so constructive you should be elected “scientific poster of the year”
The only attitude I have is that I tend to base my conclusions on scientific publications. What a fool I am!
Richard Sharpe: it looks like I’m not as lazy as you are finally…
Observational determination of the greenhouse effect
A. Raval & V. Ramanathan
Nature 342, 758 – 761 (14 December 1989)
“Satellite measurements are used to quantify the atmospheric greenhouse effect, defined here as the infrared radiation energy trapped by atmospheric gases and clouds. The greenhouse effect is found to increase significantly with sea surface temperature. The rate of increase gives compelling evidence for the positive feedback between surface temperature, water vapour and the green-house effect; the magnitude of the feedback is consistent with that predicted by climate models. This study demonstrates an effective method for directly monitoring, from space, future changes in the greenhouse effect.”
My son, who could care less about all of this, explained it to me. He said, “look Dad, most people don’t believe in the diagnosis, but they’re in favor of the prescription.”
People in L.A. don’t want the brown haze over their city. People in Pittsburgh don’t want a layer of Coal Dust on their cars. People in Mississippi want to be able to go fishing, and eat the fish, and people in Detroit want to be able to put gasoline in their gas tank to go to work, or to the ball game.
So, when you tell these people about “Global Warming,” they’re a little skeptical; but when you tell them the “cure” is Wind, Solar, and Biofuels they shrug, say “eh,” and go about their business.
People, in general, aren’t nearly as stupid as the “elite” scientists, politicians, and, yes, bloggers, think they are.
OT: Looks like an old cycle 23 spot forming on Old Sol today.
And the climate “scientists” could put an end to all the back and forth by simply releasing their data and methods so others can check them and attempt to verify the result as is done in the scientific community. Why the area of climate research is somehow outside the scope of normal scientific practice is beyond me.
And note that people seem to have to wait until they are retired in order to speak out. There seems to be a lot of academic intimidation going on here.
It’s like the so-called “Butterfly Effect” that never was. Like the butterfly, CO2’s ability to affect climate is utterly overwhelmed.
John Philip (06:58:08)
It is the statement that “The size of the resultant radiative forcing is actually quite well-quantified, within an uncertainty of about 5%.” that I have the most problem with.
Is this empirical evidence or modeled – the abstract of the paper you cite appears to suggest it is the latter Until someone can show empirically that this so called ‘forcing’ is real I cannot see why I should believe it.
The earth has warmed in the last century but such a trend is not unusual in history – for the AGW argument to hold someone has to show the modeled forcing occurs in the real world. Between the 1940’s and 1970’s the evidence is that the modeled effect did not hold. Since 1998 it looks as if it may be failing again.
The onus is actually on the proponents of AGW to prove it – that’s how science works (or at least it used to).
Over to you.
And to finish:
1- the most basic and strongest suggest feedback in AGW is that CO2 induces T elevation, which in turn induces more tropospheric water vapor. See recent measurements here :
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v449/n7163/fig_tab/nature06207_F1.html
2- More water means more greenhouse effect (see the Nature ref I gave before)
Conclusion: it’s gonna be hot…
Michael Smith, E.A. Smith, and Anna V —
Thanks for your assistance elucidating the (to a layman) obscurities of that quote.
I feel the tide is shifting…I am one of those who only a year ago was wholly in the “green” alarmist camp on this issue. I still consider myself green. There are many viable reasons — economic, social, and environmental — to be transitioning towards more efficient, locally produced and alternative forms of energy. But I hate to see the green movement held hostage to AGW junk science.
For those with an interest, one good website that is bucking the AGW agenda while preserving an explicitly ecological agena is Lucy Skywalker’s http://www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Science/Curious.htm.
I think what’s interesting here is the increased sophistication of the skeptic community. I suspect Prof. Steig’s release of his data massaging paper last week to show Antartic warming was to buck up support for Al Gore’s testimony before Congress today. So the skeptic community comes out with this revelation from Dr. Theon the night before Al Gore is set to speak. All of this smells of politics to me, a skeptic.
Adam Sullivan:
Einstein published his work on relativity in the peer-reviewed literature. He didn’t just send it off to a Senate staffer.
REPLY: Oh come on Joel, really. That’s probably the most ridiculous thing you’ve ever posted. Letters expressing doubt now should be “peer reviewed”? Simply sending them to someone in government employ expressing concern over a government funded issue is not enough unless peer review is involved? Your comparison is just silly.
Adam’s point is valid, What if Einstein had chosen a journal that wasn’t open minded back then? What if the journal editor made a snap decision that Einsteins claim was so “out of touch with current thinking” that he simply discarded it and sent the standard rejection form letter? What if Einstein had this process repeated again and again until he ended up publishing in an obscure journal (witness what happened to McIntyre and McKittrick) – would history have been irrevocably altered? The CO2/AGW issue is so entrenched today that alternate considerations are becoming squeezed out of the thought process. – Anthony
PaulHClark:
The value of the forcing is even accepted by “skeptical” scientists like Richard Lindzen and, I believe, Spencer and Christy. You are welcome to disbelieve it if you wish but just don’t expect to find much company in the scientific community.
That doesn’t look any better for your case. It is still temperatures going up and down, whilst CO2 rises. If you increase the time period even more over thousands of years then temperature appears to drive CO2, with a lag.
One would think that if the CO2 forcing was the primary one, it would be obvious to everybody. And yet it is only “obvious” to those who have decided to agree.
Regarding the cultural aspects, there are many voices in the world calling for some form of a One World Government. I am in favor of some kind of unity, because we have many problems that are international. Pollution is the obvious one, along with nuclear proliferation. There are many voices calling for this, out in the open, and at think tank meetings between current and former world leaders. That debate has been going on for decades. And I wish they would simply make that call more open to the public, get people involved in the issues of world citizenry, directly—-and then we might not have to have these long and time wasting debates about politicized science. Global Warming is a side issue. It is not the main issue. The main issue is Global Government. Let’s separate the science from the politics. Let the scientists off the hook, take the load off their backs. Get the activists and remind them what they are really supposed to be concerned about. Get the scientists back to doing just the science; they are scientists, not politicians, and it is unfair to them that they are asked to behave like politicians. They are no good at it, as we can all see, and it serves nobody anyway.
Another very good example of “skeptic’s science”… Here is a graph posted on Climate Skeptic in order to try and show that temperatures are not increasing in Arizona:
http://www.climate-movie.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/grand_canyon_temp.gif
Waah, look, it’s actually cooling! Global warming is a scam!
But… What’s that first point on the left of the graph 10s of degrees higher than the rest? And why is it hand-cut in 2005? How do the original data look like?
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/broker?id=023596&_PROGRAM=prog.gplot_meanclim_mon_yr.sas&_SERVICE=default¶m=UTAVE&minyear=1903&maxyear=2006
Well, illustrative of the method, isn’t it?
REPLY:I don’t like the sort of tone you project. “flanagan” if you weren’t so intent on smackdowns, you might realize why the data on the left side of the graph is not an error, but an actual measurement issue. And, that lots of stations in the turn of the century time frame had this measurement issue. The data source you cite is different than the one, and has been adjusted via USHCN1 methodology.
I’ll leave it to you to figure out what I’m speaking of, the answers are here on my blog and at CA. Look it up and report back in 24 hours. Cheers – Anthony
dhogaza (06:08:23) :
kum dollison
Your comments illustrate the problem.The AGW issue has sidetracked the entire world from the real problem which was and still is , namely to reduce and eliminate real POLLUTION and not CO2. [Like the war in Iraq side tracked us from the real threat in Afganistan.} Here is what EPA says about this.
The Clean Air Act requires EPA to set National Ambient Air Quality Standards for six common air pollutants. These commonly found air pollutants (also known as “criteria pollutants”) are found all over the United States. They are particle pollution (often referred to as particulate matter), ground-level ozone, carbon monoxide, sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, and lead. These pollutants can harm your health and the environment, and cause property damage. Of the six pollutants, particle pollution and ground-level ozone are the most widespread health threats. NOTICE THAT CO2 IS NOT EVEN MENTIONED.
The sooner we stop trying to eliminate global warming by reducing CO2 [which by the way will not do anything to change the climate] and getback to reducing real pollution ,the sooner will our life become healthier.
Flanagan:
You don’t know what you don’t know.
Anyone who quotes a Michael Mann authored paper as a source (8:46) has to be a AGW debate ignoramus or a comic:
“Did you hear the one about turning red noise into a hockey stick?”
Joel Shore — “Einstein published his work on relativity in the peer-reviewed literature. He didn’t just send it off to a Senate staffer.”
What you appear to be missing here is the assumption that were the current political climate in force back then, Einstein wouldn’t have had his paper published because it didn’t agree with the Newtonian consensus.
As far as I can tell, there is merit to this argument; the anti-AGW histrionics are proportional to those which precipitate them… e.g. if Dr. Hansen was to publish his work and merely go home, that would be one thing. But he doesn’t. An opposite reaction takes place. Not surprising.
David: that’s not really clever to start ad hominem like that. You don’t like Mann? OK, so what about the other papers?
REPLY: Everybody, let’s cool down the discussion, or I will close the thread. Anthony