James Hansen's Former NASA Supervisor Declares Himself a Skeptic – Says Hansen 'Embarrassed NASA', 'Was Never Muzzled', & Models 'Useless'

nasa_logoUPDATE 1/28: Full text of Dr. Theon’s letter has been post on the Senate website and below.

This is something I thought I’d never see. This press release today is from the Senate EPW blog of Jame Inhofe. The scientist making the claims in the headline, Dr. John S. Theon, formerly of the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Arlington, Virginia, has a paper here in the AMS BAMS that you may also find interesting. Other papers are available here in Google Scholar. He also worked on the report of the Space Shuttle Challenger accident report and according to that document was a significant contributor to weather forecasting improvements:

The Space Shuttle Weather Forecasting Advisory Panel, chaired by Dr. John Theon, was established by NASA Headquarters to review existing weather support capabilities and plans and to recommend a course of action to the NSTS Program. Included on the panel were representatives from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Air Force, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

For those just joining the climate discussion, Dr. James Hansen is the chief climate scientist at NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and is the man who originally raised the alarm on global warming in 1988 in an appearance before congress. He is also the keeper of the most often cited climate data.

EPW press release below – Anthony


Washington DC, Jan 27th 2009: NASA warming scientist James Hansen, one of former Vice-President Al Gore’s closest allies in the promotion of man-made global warming fears, is being publicly rebuked by his former supervisor at NASA.

Retired senior NASA atmospheric scientist, Dr. John S. Theon, the former supervisor of James Hansen, NASA’s vocal man-made global warming fear soothsayer, has now publicly declared himself a skeptic and declared that Hansen “embarrassed NASA” with his alarming climate claims and said Hansen was “was never muzzled.” Theon joins the rapidly growing ranks of international scientists abandoning the promotion of man-made global warming fears.

“I appreciate the opportunity to add my name to those who disagree that global warming is man made,” Theon wrote to the Minority Office at the Environment and Public Works Committee on January 15, 2009. “I was, in effect, Hansen’s supervisor because I had to justify his funding, allocate his resources, and evaluate his results,” Theon, the former Chief of the Climate Processes Research Program at NASA Headquarters and former Chief of the Atmospheric Dynamics & Radiation Branch explained.

“Hansen was never muzzled even though he violated NASA’s official agency position on climate forecasting (i.e., we did not know enough to forecast climate change or mankind’s effect on it). Hansen thus embarrassed NASA by coming out with his claims of global warming in 1988 in his testimony before Congress,” Theon wrote. [Note: NASA scientist James Hansen has created worldwide media frenzy with his dire climate warning, his call for trials against those who dissent against man-made global warming fear, and his claims that he was allegedly muzzled by the Bush administration despite doing 1,400 on-the-job media interviews! See: Don’t Panic Over Predictions of Climate Doom – Get the Facts on James Hansen UK Register: Veteran climate scientist says ‘lock up the oil men’ – June 23, 2008 & UK Guardian: NASA scientist calls for putting oil firm chiefs on trial for ‘high crimes against humanity’ for spreading doubt about man-made global warming – June 23, 2008 ]

Theon declared “climate models are useless.” “My own belief concerning anthropogenic climate change is that the models do not realistically simulate the climate system because there are many very important sub-grid scale processes that the models either replicate poorly or completely omit,” Theon explained. “Furthermore, some scientists have manipulated the observed data to justify their model results. In doing so, they neither explain what they have modified in the observations, nor explain how they did it. They have resisted making their work transparent so that it can be replicated independently by other scientists. This is clearly contrary to how science should be done. Thus there is no rational justification for using climate model forecasts to determine public policy,” he added.

“As Chief of several of NASA Headquarters’ programs (1982-94), an SES position, I was responsible for all weather and climate research in the entire agency, including the research work by James Hansen, Roy Spencer, Joanne Simpson, and several hundred other scientists at NASA field centers, in academia, and in the private sector who worked on climate research,” Theon wrote of his career. “This required a thorough understanding of the state of the science. I have kept up with climate science since retiring by reading books and journal articles,” Theon added. (LINK) Theon also co-authored the book “Advances in Remote Sensing Retrieval Methods.” [Note: Theon joins many current and former NASA scientists in dissenting from man-made climate fears. A small sampling includes: Aerospace engineer and physicist Dr. Michael Griffin, the former top administrator of NASA, Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a PhD in meteorology, and formerly of NASA, Geophysicist Dr. Phil Chapman, an astronautical engineer and former NASA astronaut, Award-Winning NASA Astronaut/Geologist and Moonwalker Jack Schmitt, Award-winning NASA Astronaut and Physicist Walter Cunningham of NASA’s Apollo 7, Chemist and Nuclear Engineer Robert DeFayette was formerly with NASA’s Plum Brook Reactor, Hungarian Ferenc Miskolczi, an atmospheric physicist with 30 years of experience and a former researcher with NASA’s Ames Research Center, Climatologist Dr. John Christy, Climatologist Dr. Roy W. Spencer, Atmospheric Scientist Ross Hays of NASA’s Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility]

Gore faces a much different scientific climate in 2009 than the one he faced in 2006 when his film “An Inconvenient Truth” was released. According to satellite data, the Earth has cooled since Gore’s film was released, Antarctic sea ice extent has grown to record levels, sea level rise has slowed, ocean temperatures have failed to warm, and more and more scientists have publicly declared their dissent from man-made climate fears as peer-reviewed studies continue to man-made counter warming fears. [See: Peer-Reviewed Study challenges ‘notion that human emissions are responsible for global warming’ & New Peer-Reviewed Scientific Studies Chill Global Warming Fears ]

“Vice President Gore and the other promoters of man-made climate fears endless claims that the “debate is over” appear to be ignoring scientific reality,” Senator James Inhofe, Ranking Member of the Environment & Public Works Committee.

A U.S. Senate Minority Report released in December 2008 details over 650 international scientists who are dissenting from man-made global warming fears promoted by the UN and yourself. Many of the scientists profiled are former UN IPCC scientists and former believers in man-made climate change that have reversed their views in recent years. The report continues to grow almost daily. We have just received a request from an Italian scientist, and a Czech scientist to join the 650 dissenting scientists report. A chemist from the U.S. Naval Academy is about to be added, and more Japanese scientists are dissenting. Finally, many more meteorologists will be added and another former UN IPCC scientist is about to be included. These scientists are openly rebelling against the climate orthodoxy promoted by Gore and the UN IPCC.

The prestigious International Geological Congress, dubbed the geologists’ equivalent of the Olympic Games, was held in Norway in August 2008 and prominently featured the voices of scientists skeptical of man-made global warming fears. Reports from the conference found that Skeptical scientists overwhelmed the meeting, with ‘2/3 of presenters and question-askers hostile to, even dismissive of, the UN IPCC’ ( See full reports here & here ] In addition, a 2008 canvass of more than 51,000 Canadian scientists revealed 68% disagree that global warming science is “settled.” A November 25, 2008, article in Politico noted that a “growing accumulation” of science is challenging warming fears, and added that the “science behind global warming may still be too shaky to warrant cap-and-trade legislation.” More evidence that the global warming fear machine is breaking down. Russian scientists “rejected the very idea that carbon dioxide may be responsible for global warming”. An American Physical Society editor conceded that a “considerable presence” of scientific skeptics exists. An International team of scientists countered the UN IPCC, declaring: “Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate”. India Issued a report challenging global warming fears. International Scientists demanded the UN IPCC “be called to account and cease its deceptive practices.”

The scientists and peer-reviewed studies countering climate claims are the key reason that the U.S. public has grown ever more skeptical of man-made climate doom predictions. [See: Global warming ranks dead last, 20 out of 20 in new Pew survey. Pew Survey: & Survey finds majority of U.S. Voters – ‘51% – now believe that humans are not the predominant cause of climate change’ – January 20, 2009 – Rasmussen Reports ]

The chorus of skeptical scientific voices grow louder in 2008 as a steady stream of peer-reviewed studies, analyses, real world data and inconvenient developments challenged the UN’s and former Vice President Al Gore’s claims that the “science is settled” and there is a “consensus.”

On a range of issues, 2008 proved to be challenging for the promoters of man-made climate fears. Promoters of anthropogenic warming fears endured the following: Global temperatures failing to warm; Peer-reviewed studies predicting a continued lack of warming; a failed attempt to revive the discredited “Hockey Stick“; inconvenient developments and studies regarding rising CO2; the Spotless Sun; Clouds; Antarctica; the Arctic; Greenland’s ice; Mount Kilimanjaro; Global sea ice; Causes of Hurricanes; Extreme Storms; Extinctions; Floods; Droughts; Ocean Acidification; Polar Bears; Extreme weather deaths; Frogs; lack of atmospheric dust; Malaria; the failure of oceans to warm and rise as predicted.

# # #

ORIGINAL FULL TEXT LETTER SENT VIA EMAILS:

—–Original Message—–

From: Jtheon [mailto:jtheon@XXXXXXX]

Sent: Thursday, January 15, 2009 10:05 PM

To: Morano, Marc (EPW)

Subject: Climate models are useless
Marc, First, I sent several e-mails to you with an error in the address and they have been returned to me. So I’m resending them in one combined e-mail.
Yes, one could say that I was, in effect, Hansen’s supervisor because I had to justify his funding, allocate his resources, and evaluate his results. I did not have the authority to give him his annual performance evaluation. He was never muzzled even though he violated NASA’s official agency position on climate forecasting (i.e., we did not know enough to forecast climate change or mankind’s effect on it). He thus embarrassed NASA by coming out with his claims of global warming in 1988 in his testimony before Congress.
My own belief concerning anthropogenic climate change is that the models do not realistically simulate the climate system because there are many very important sub-grid scale processes that the models either replicate poorly or completely omit. Furthermore, some scientists have manipulated the observed data to justify their model results. In doing so, they neither explain what they have modified in the observations, nor explain how they did it. They have resisted making their work transparent so that it can be replicated independently by other scientists. This is clearly contrary to how science should be done. Thus there is no rational justification for using climate model forecasts to determine public policy.
With best wishes, John
# #
From: Jtheon [mailto:jtheon@XXXXXX]

Sent: Tuesday, January 13, 2009 12:50 PM

To: Morano, Marc (EPW)

Subject: Re: Nice seeing you
Marc, Indeed, it was a pleasure to see you again. I appreciate the opportunity to add my name to those who disagree that Global Warming is man made.  A brief bio follows. Use as much or as little of it as you wish.
John S. Theon Education: B.S. Aero. Engr. (1953-57); Aerodynamicist, Douglas Aircraft Co. (1957-58); As USAF Reserve Officer (1958-60),B.S. Meteorology (1959); Served as Weather Officer 1959-60; M.S, Meteorology (1960-62); NASA Research Scientist, Goddard Space Flight Ctr. (1962-74); Head Meteorology Branch, GSFC (1974-76); Asst. Chief, Lab. for Atmos. Sciences, GSFC (1977-78);  Program Scientist, NASA Global Weather Research Program, NASA Hq. (1978-82); Chief, Atmospheric Dynamics & Radiation Branch NASA Hq., (1982-91); Ph.D.,  Engr. Science & Mech.: course of study and dissertation in atmos. science (1983-85); Chief, Atmospheric Dynamics, Radiation, & Hydrology Branch, NASA Hq. (1991-93); Chief, Climate Processes Research Program, NASA Hq. (1993-94); Senior Scientist, Mission to Planet Earth Office, NASA Hq. (1994-95); Science Consultant, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (1995-99); Science Consultant  Orbital Sciences Corp. (1996-97) and NASA Jet Propulsion Lab., (1997-99).
As Chief of several NASA Hq. Programs (1982-94), an SES position, I was responsible for all weather and climate research in the entire agency, including the  research work by James Hansen, Roy Spencer, Joanne Simpson, and several hundred other scientists at NASA field centers, in academia, and in the private sector who worked on climate research. This required a thorough understanding of the state of the science. I have kept up with climate  science since retiring by reading books and journal articles. I hope that this is helpful.
Best wishes, John

Sponsored IT training links:

Best quality 640-553 dumps written by certified expert to help you pass 642-456 and 70-536 exam in easy and fast way.


0 0 votes
Article Rating

Discover more from Watts Up With That?

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

659 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Editor
January 27, 2009 6:55 pm

Well, this is certainly pleasant news, and from a source I hadn’t considered being a source.
My big hope for this year is for the MSM to take note that not only is the science unsettled, but that there’s a news story going on that they’ve missed. One reason I hoped for a blizzard at the inauguration is that both Washington and New York media would have it right in their face on a day with millions of people watching. There have been cold events pretty much across the country this winter so it’s been hard to ignore. So far there hasn’t been much progress in the media, but the year’s still young.
I’ve never seen an EPW press release get much attention in mainstream media, and I doubt this one will either, at least not without some effort to get them to pay attention. Write the editor! Perhaps this one has a chance of getting some news media to ask questions before printing the next piece from Hansen about how we are going to destroy Creation.

VG
January 27, 2009 6:56 pm

looks like a cycle 23 spot may be forming… again!
http://www.solarcycle24.com/

Joseph
January 27, 2009 7:01 pm

Re: Mongo (17:47:32) :
This in the end, will mean next to nothing. Threr have been many instances where the “data” used by proponents of AGW theory, refuted, and yet we still continued our lemming-like march to the cliffs.
——————————————————————-
Mongo, “we” are not marching lemming-like towards the cliffs, the climate-alarmists are trying to herd us in that direction, in an effort to make us feel good about reducing our standard of living (and paying more for it), in favor of “saving the planet”.
I’m not convinced that our leadership actually believes this is a real issue. I think they are just willing to go along with it because it meshes so nicely with the societal and economic changes they wish to impose upon us.
I do agree with your metaphor of this being “a train wreck that has already happened”. Carbon trading has begun, and millions of dollars have already changed hands. Once that level of economic momentum has built, it is very difficult to stop. I am concerned that we are probably in for at least a decade of this nonsensical waste of human efforts. We will be ill-prepared if we are confronted with a real crisis.
Looking back upon this time from the future, this will certainly be seen as one of our inglorious moments.

Robert Bateman
January 27, 2009 7:03 pm

VG (18:56:41) :
looks like a cycle 23 spot may be forming… again!
http://www.solarcycle24.com/

Well don’t that just beat all ??!!
Yup, that’s got SC23 written all over it. I’ll be hooked on the SOHO and GONG images tonight. My refractor goes with me to work.
Oy ye vay.

Bill Illis
January 27, 2009 7:04 pm

I’d like to see the actual letter that Dr. Theon wrote.
It would be far more powerful as a stand-alone letter rather than the potentially out-context-quotes and other off-topic inserts from the Inhofe page.

Fred
January 27, 2009 7:07 pm

If Dr Theon had tried to silence Hansen, the entire world would have heard that the evil Federal government was silencing an independent thinker and Hansen would not have given 1,400 on-the-job interviews but 2,800. Obviously, they would only silence him if he was telling the truth. Just like in a Hollywood movie.

Mike Davis
January 27, 2009 7:08 pm

Rumor has it that Gore has canceled his speach tommorow due to ICE and cold

juan
January 27, 2009 7:11 pm

E. M. Smith
Thank you for an explanation that we laymen can understand. Your example reminds me of Mark Twain’s comment that the coldest winter he ever lived through was a summer in San Francisco.

Brent Matich
January 27, 2009 7:13 pm

People are finally starting to wake up and smell the BS. The world has bigger fish to fry than listen to an old washed up politician and his cronies ( Hansen ,UN fools etc ) and their computer models ( garbage in garbage out ).
Long live my Chevy Tahoe!
Brent in Calgary

January 27, 2009 7:16 pm

A couple of things I think I have learned. The question is asked why the writer didn’t expose Hansen when it might have prevented the impending imposition of the economic destruction and social engineering planned by the UN/IPCC crowd on the basis of “climate change”.
the answer is simple. It would have cost him. I find that most people stand back from telling the truth or joining the fray if it might seriously cost them. If I sound cynical, it is only because I have found myself standing alone on more than one occasion when an issue such as freedom of speech and the press was on the line in my town. It is very lonely to take a stand while the outcome is still in doubt. I find most men are cowards.
Second: I agree that civility is a high value. But the AGW dragon will not be dead until the masses laugh at those who champion it’s “remedy”. Satire, parody, stand up comedy routines, are the final step in killing the lie. It will only be dead when the public “gets” the jokes.
I don’t know what to do with that, except I believe there will be a public confrontation one day and some wag will offer a priceless comment and the warmists will be unable to answer for the guffaws. Then it will be truly over.

Steven Hill
January 27, 2009 7:22 pm

Makes no difference for the US…Obama and the Enviro hacks are going to do their thing, they won the election.
I hope that I am wrong, don’t bet on it.

Mick
January 27, 2009 7:26 pm

tick, tick, …tick ……tick ……….tick_______________pegs up!!!
The AGW tent collapsing
LOL

philincalifornia
January 27, 2009 7:27 pm

helvio (16:43:02) : wrote:
But now you have Barack Obama and Steven Chu, two men in power, determined to following the ideology, even though it’s ‘tumbling down’… it should tumble faster, before serious commitments are made!
—————————————————-
I’m hoping, respectfully, that you have this (the first part) called incorrectly. So far, since being inaugurated, Obama has not come out and said anything totally stupid as far as I know – except when the BBC had to fraudulently modify his speech to approaching the stooopid level. Like many individuals who frequent this site, both he and Chu have stated interests in cleantech and reducing pollution. I sincerely hope that they will do it while still retaining the kind of scientific integrity inherent in us so-called skeptics. I have faith in them, mostly because Chu is an excellent scientist, and Obama watched what bad counseling on weapons of mass destruction did to Dubya. Is it next week when Obama’s walking, talking weapon of mass destruction, Al Gore, gets to give bad counsel ?? I shall keep faith in our elected leader until at least the aftermath of that polar bear and penguin circus act.

montjoie1095
January 27, 2009 7:31 pm

Sadly, Hansen was allowed to testify as an expert in a British criminal case that ended up letting off a bunch of vandals who trashed a coal plant (I think) because of his testimony that their “efforts” were for the common good.

MC
January 27, 2009 7:32 pm

I believe the reason Theon only now expresses his skeptisism is that he senses a social wave of non support for AGW. He senses that if he does not write about his true feelings he can be seen with egg on his face when the climate proves Hansen and Gore wrong. Distance and the truth is what he seeks to clear himself from the stupidity of manmade global warmimng. If this is true for Theon its true for many others who have their reputations at risk.

Lance
January 27, 2009 7:33 pm

One wonders what fantastic and new discoveries in science/earth sciences could of been achieved from all the billions of dollars going toward AGW. It’s a travesty to think real work has gone disregarded by their own collegues because of one hypotheses just to save face.
Fortunately. I don’t think this is a conspiracy, more of doing what you’re boss says and keeping funding. I think most of them do believe in their heart that AGW exist, a scientist caught in the middle, just trying to do research they’ve been trained to do.
That said, climate science now has become political, and as someone over at RC posted, says it all,
“Sometimes public policy needs to serve science, and sometimes science needs to serve public policy. Now is a time for the latter.”
So as you can see their minds are made up already, science or no science, facts and reality don’t enter into the equation.

hotrod
January 27, 2009 7:36 pm

If Dr Theon knew what Hansen was doing was wrong, why didn’t he stop Hansen? Maybe that question is not appropriate for this forum, but I would still like to know the answer.

It is entirely possible that the internal political culture of NASA would not allow him to control Hansen or others! Just like the NASA culture would not listen to the Morton Thiokol engineers that begged them not to launch Challenger, and the specialists that begged them to take high resolution pictures of Columbia to verify if it had damage from the foam strike.
The internal peer pressure in large organizations can be fearsome, and you literally risk your livelihood to raise some issues. It is a problem in ALL large human organizations. It is wired into our DNA not to risk our own welfare to call out the leaders of our group unless they go out of their way to encourage honest feed back.
This “group think” tendency was traced out to be one of the root causes in several major airplane accidents, as the pilots did not encourage feedback from other crew members — read the story of the Tenerife accident where two planes collided on the runway for an example.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tenerife_disaster
It is such a powerful tendency, that senior commanding officers in the military occasionally tell junior subordinates that there is no rank in the airplane and if they see anything wrong they want to hear about it. That sort of a culture starts at the very top of the agency and cannot be pushed up from the bottom.
It will be years before we hear the inside story of bloody battles and shouting matches in conference rooms and hallways, where sane scientists tried to stop this years ago. In all likelihood they got quietly pushed out to dead end assignments and that “Who said that” comment by Khrushchev is exactly what prevails. After one or two people get sent to dead end assignments, or can’t get good job references or can’t publish because they get blackballed by prestigious journals, others quickly learn to keep their head down or get out.
I have been through this sort of thing in a State agency, and ended up leaving because I could not associate my self with what they were doing. Not everyone has the financial or family support to be that willing to walk away from a career. In small technical fields you can get black listed just like actors were in the 1950’s if you confront the wrong people.
Larry

G Alston
January 27, 2009 7:37 pm

Here’s how this news will be handled by the alarmist crowd —
“This is little more than yet another ossified has-been scientist who hasn’t contributed anything useful in years and for whom real science has sadly passed him by.”
Obviously that’s not true, but that’s how retirees who speak their minds are treated, as well as those in the Dr. Spencer age bracket. On the other hand if you’re e.g. Steve Chu and a true believer, you’re one of those marvels who can contribute bigtime lomng past the “sell by” date.
Those of you who think the tide has changed are mistaken.
There was a show on NOVA about the “CA green energy gamble.” Essentially the die is cast already. The show featured Steve Chu, waxing poetically about the infinite number of new high paying non-exportable “green” jobs.
That’s why you are mistaken. This is what you are up against. People are being promised jobs. Good jobs. High paying jobs. And in a time where jobs are getting scarce. They don’t know climate science from dissertations on whale spleens. Nor do they care. Who are they going to believe?
On the other hand, remember that despair is a sin.

G Alston
January 27, 2009 7:41 pm

hotrod
You’re describing Jerry Pournelle’s Iron Law of Bureaucracy, which states:
“…that in any bureaucratic organization there will be two kinds of people: those who work to further the actual goals of the organization, and those who work for the organization itself. The Iron Law states that in all cases, the second type of person will always gain control of the organization, and will always write the rules under which the organization functions.”

JohnD
January 27, 2009 7:51 pm

Thanks, Dr. Theon, for speaking up now that the damage is done.

Steve Hempell
January 27, 2009 8:00 pm

Bill Illis (19:04:28) :
I’m with Bill on this. Any chance of getting the original letter EPW? Knowing what was actually written is most important.
REPLY: I’ve asked for it, and got a response sayimg they’ll get it to me tomorrow when they get to the office (assuming they can make it through the snow and ice there). – Anthony

Steve Hempell
January 27, 2009 8:03 pm

Should have been from EPW

Robert Bateman
January 27, 2009 8:23 pm

The new SC23 spot is just barely visible on a SOHO image converted to Luminance and maximum clipped to compensate for the overwhelming advantage of space-based imaging.
I have it visible as a flyspeck on a Teide GONG image of 01/27/09 16:54 image exponential stretched.
That makes 2 SC23’s in 1 month. Does this shoot a hole in SC24 minimum of Sept/0ct 08?
We are comparing SC23 flypecks to SC24 flyspecks. Seems fair to me.
Egg on face. Gore takes a ‘freezing rain check’.

Robert Bateman
January 27, 2009 8:27 pm

Oh yeah, I got a process to bring SOHO images down to lowly Earthling based images.
Go ahead, make my day, count that spot.
You know you want to.