What the Solar Cycle 24 ramp up could look like

Leif Svalgaard (07:45:15) :
nobwainer (Geoff Sharp) (20:18:36) :
So far I have plotted 34 possible grand minima producing dates over 5676 years. 5676 divided by 33 = 172 as stated in my article.
You make the [unfounded] assumption that the radiocarbon dates are correct. In fact, they can be decades or even centuries off:
http://geog-www.sbs.ohio-state.edu/courses/G820.01/WI05%20climate%20history/radiocarbon.pdf
Your points are not related. That paper states “Between 0 and 8000 years before the present (B.P.), the error in this curve is often less than 20 years, and—except for a few brief intervals—it is less than 30 years over
the past 11,800 years”
I can certainly live with that, I made the statement that up to -3000 it looked very good. Your grabbing at straws here, as well as making false statements.

Leif
The day is shortest at aphelion
http://www.iers.org/MainDisp.csl?pid=95-99

Leif Svalgaard (08:00:19) :
Dalton minimum is a glaring fault. The central ‘opportunity’ was 1831, the two other ones 3 J-orbits on either side would be in 1796 and 1866. The actual minimum was in ~1811. What should be explained is:
1) why was the central opportunity not taken
2) why is the minimum off
You could f.ex. plot or post the ‘angles’ and other quantities you consider important year for year from, say, 1750 through 1870, and explain the discrepancies.
I repeat:
There are normally 3 opportunities each 172 yrs…not always as it depends on the J/S angle of that period…those opportunities show up clearly when we look at the SSB graph of Carls’s when checking a particular period. Check here for the Dalton. http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/files/2009/01/ssbscmax2.jpg
Basically during each period/phase each 172 years as N+U begin to close we have a partial line up of N+U+J with S opposing. The angle between N+U is greater so the disturbance to the angular momentum (camels hump in graph) is not as high as the next opportunity but can be strong enough to begin a grand minimum as it did in 1791. 3 complete orbits of J later we return to the optimal centre opportunity. This normally in a strong grand minimum would continue the grand minimum affect on the Sun and then continue on 3 orbits of J again and possibly a 3rd “hit” would occur before returning back to a “normal” conditions as N+U start to oppose each other. This is exactly what happened during the Sporer, Maunder and probably Wolf and explains their length. There are 2 types of “hits” possible during the best angles of J/S, type A and B which we can discuss later.
The Dalton started on the 1st opportunity but failed after that, the second hit was more like SC20, not strong enough to cause continuing grand minimum but strong enough to severely reduce sunspot activity as in SC7 but allowing SC8,9,10 & 11 to recover. SC12 was hit for 1 cycle only as the last opportunity of the 172 yr phase passes through. Up until recently the tipping point or what actually causes the Sun to go into phase catastrophe (or whatever we want to call the grand minima action stopping sunspot activity) has been a mystery. Ian Wilson has just come up with a theory that could explain it. In the past where we have sunspot data, if J+S are at the top or bottom of their stroke (together is top, opposed is bottom) before that sunspot cycle experiences its peak or max we have greatly reduced sunspot activity (less than 80SSN). The previous graph I referred to shows this phenomena inside the yellow circles. We have very little sunspot data to substantiate Ian’s theory but I suspect it may one day be referred to as “Wilson’s Law”
SC20 was the first opportunity of the current phase, the J/S angle was way too straight (almost directly opposite each other) which places the disturbance at the very bottom of the J & S opposition which you can see on Carl’s graph. This usually has minimal effect but slows activity without a full grand minimum taking place. We are now at the optimal position with a pretty good J/S angle so I am expecting full blown grand minima if “Wilson’s Law” holds true, but it will be short lived. The 3rd opportunity looks very weak and our path looks to be heading for another MWP period after that as the transition to neg angles looks to be happening. So we had better make the most of this forthcoming grand minimum

Yes in addition to the aphelion dip there is the perihelion dip when the oceans cool down, shrinking the earth a little so it speeds up.

Robert Bateman (19:58:40) :
…. according to the time period that David Archibald gives, is 12 to 20 months, or late Sept, 2009 to late May, 2010.
I’m expecting 6-12 months of gnat-straining spot antics.
Too bad there isn’t a lottery for this.

Then arrange one. We have a lottery about the timing of solar min. in our astronomy club, with a fairly expensive eyepiece as the fist price. My bet in April 2008 was Sept 2009, which seemed very far fetched at the time, all other bets were much earlier. Now I think it is quite plausible that I will add to my small stock of eyepieces.

Leif,
Of course the fluids are moving but that’s a response not a cause.

Leif,
How many times does Geoff have to tell you there is no 172 yr period, there is a 172 yr average cycle. Like in the sun spot cycle, the average period is 11,1 yr but in the FFT spectrum you don’t find much power at 11,1 yr. You do find power around 10.2 yr and 11.8 yr however, which (unconveniently to you I guess) happens to be very close to the J/S cycle and the Jupiter year.