An Opportunity for Europe in 2009

Guest post by Steven Goddard

Gordon Brown and Dan Glass

Climate Activist Glues Himself to the Smiling Prime Minister at #10

Consider the conflicted UK, where the government is dominated by people who claim to be concerned above all else about CO2 emissions, and where the power industry warns that the country’s electricity and natural gas capacity may soon be inadequate to meet basic needs.  Russia is currently threatening to cut off natural gas supplies to Europe.  Climate vandals are welcomed to 10 Downing Street where they embarrass the Prime Minister, and formerly great newspapers like The Guardian demonize environmental activists for trying to protect the country’s scenic heritage from unsightly windmills.  Dr. Hansen was recently welcomed as an expert witness for the defence of power plant damagers, and children block airport runways to stop vacationers from using airplanes – in the name of protecting of the climate.

The UK is currently in the grip of what the papers describe as a “Siberian Cold Front.”  Solar insolation is close to zero this time of year at that latitude, so solar power is out of the question as a significant winter energy source.  The light winds and freezing conditions make wind generated power minimally useful and unreliable.  Coal, nuclear and natural gas are the only practical options to stay warm, yet the government appears too paralyzed by climate fears to move forward with the needed additions to the energy grid.

Britain is experiencing a seemingly irresolvable conflict in it’s collective belief system.  Brits want to save the planet from global warming, and yet are faced with power shortages which may affect their livelihoods and ability to stay warm in a cold climate.  The Church of England is wagering huge sums of cash on Al Gore’s understanding of the world.  And as the New Year rings in with bitter cold, the Met Office warns of yet another hot year.  The last “hot” day in London was July 27, 2006 when temperatures reached 30C (86F.)  That was 889 days ago.

Can the great country which survived the Nazi Blitz overcome it’s own internal conflicts in 2009?  I predict that England will pull herself together like she always has, but who will be the next Churchill to lead England out of it’s most clueless hour?  Britain’s leadership hasn’t been this confused since Neville Chamberlain handed Czechoslovakia over to Hitler seventy years ago.  Ironically, it may be current Czech President Vaclav Klaus who rescues Europe from themselves.

“Klaus wrote that it was futile to fight against phenomena like higher solar activity or the change of ocean currents”

Klaus assumed the EU Presidency today.  Happy New Year to all.

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Rod M
January 2, 2009 11:19 am

As a Brit myself, sadly I have to agree with most of what Steven says in his piece. I would say however that when he talks about the British what he must mean are those Brits with responsibility for government policy as in my experience the vast majority of people I know are not swayed by the AGW arguments and are more interested in cheap power than in saving the world!
There is however nothing like a dose of reality to shake everyone out of their slumbers and this will surely come when the first power cuts happen which they undoubtably will. The clamour from the masses then for more coal or nuclear power will be deafening and any political party which doesn’t respond will be out on their ear. Unfortunately, this will mean several long years of power cuts as we attempt to build new power stations and undo the years of self delusion and complacency .

Ellie in Belfast
January 2, 2009 11:28 am

Phillip Bratby (09:36:36) Re Jeremy Clarkson.
Amazing isn’t it? Apparently it has something to do with the millions the BBC earns from syndication of Top Gear around the world – does wonders for principles. The north pole one was the great, although my personal favourite was the ski-jumping mini.

old construction worker
January 2, 2009 11:53 am

Garacka (06:46:49) :
‘Hansen has some good recommendations that can be emphasized and concurred with such as Nuclear and that a carbon tax is better than cap& trade.
I don’t necessarily agree with taxing carbon, but there MIGHT BE non-climate related reasons that could rationalize it related to National Security, and long term supply. For example (Just rambling now); tax unfriendly foreign oil to encourage domestic; apply tax revenue to: liquifying coal, developing nuclear, researchijng fission, small scale wind and solar, etc.’
Since CO2 is not the problem and governments already have many income streams, why would you allow them (governments) to create a new bureaucracy in the name of CO2?

January 2, 2009 11:56 am

Mike C (02:18:23) :
“Roger Sowell, You need to get yourself here to Texas.”
I agree! I am working on returning home as soon as possible to the glorious land of my birth. Meanwhile, I do what I can to straighten out the issues in California, my adopted state. So much to do, so little time!

January 2, 2009 12:12 pm

Steve Brown: Not much democracy there then. Government by political appointees. Brings to mind “cash for honours”.

Patrick Henry
January 2, 2009 12:33 pm

Global warming is ruining Governor Palin’s statehood celebration.
Too cold to celebrate
Chalk up another victim of the deep freeze covering Southcentral Alaska.
Wasilla has canceled its planned 50th-anniversary statehood celebration Saturday because of the bone-chilling temperatures.
The event, an outdoor thing with events like sledding and a bonfire, was scheduled to start at 2 p.m. But given the ongoing minus-25 cold, likely only the hardiest would have come.
The event is now rescheduled for Jan. 10, but only if thermometer gets above minus 10.

http://community.adn.com/adn/node/136169

old construction worker
January 2, 2009 12:36 pm

‘So no CO2 no chlorophyll, no chlorophyll no GREEN
Reducing CO2 emissions is the same cime as burning forests in the amazon jungle.
Less CO2=Less forests’
And more sales for fertilizer companies.

Ron de Haan
January 2, 2009 12:41 pm

Rossa (06:19:18) :
Most Europeans are in favor of the basic concept of a free European Market without borders.
The problems came with the adoption of the UN Chapter 21 rules and the climate hoax by the EU, the endless stream of useless and stupid rules (as an example I mention the obligatory rules that state how a cucumber has to look like?) combined with a high doses of corruption, the anti social attitude among the Political Leaders, the Euro Parliament representatives (declarations) and the expensive traveling circus between Brussels and Straatsburg.
This was one of the reasons why the people of France and the Netherlands voted against the new European Laws that put more power to the European Parliament.
First clean up your act was the message.
Unfortunately the National Governments decided to act over the heads of their populations thus undermining the democratic core of every nation.
People feel they have not been taken serious.
They voted in a serious attempt to influence the system in a positive manner but the European Train did not stop and left them aside. More critical than ever.
The moment politicians and media are using lies to promote their agenda they will find themselves on very thin ice.
If the European Union wants to succeed for the future, they really have to clean up their act.
The current route is a dead end street.

January 2, 2009 1:07 pm

OP: “who will be the next Churchill to lead England out of it’s most clueless hour?”
My guess is a chap called Boris Johnson. As you may be aware, he’s currently Mayor of London. Atm he still believes in AGW but I suspect he might be one of the first politicians to flip (since he’s less politician-like than most).

David Gladstone
January 2, 2009 4:12 pm

This post is factually inaccurate. Russia has not threatened to cut gas supplies to europe, but rather to the Ukraine, a completely different matter. Both countries have pledged to keep gas flowing to western europe.

Kum Dollison
January 2, 2009 7:00 pm

The Germans are doing a Lot of heaing with Bio-Gas. Maybe Ukraine should take a look at that.

Phil's Dad
January 2, 2009 7:18 pm

Boris for (life) president of EU!

January 2, 2009 8:01 pm

JP (04:59:03) wrote: “The Alarmist fantasy world is a function of society’s massive accumulation of wealth.”
I respond to endorse the deep ~ and perhaps bitter ~ reality of those words and all that they signify.

January 2, 2009 10:29 pm

Ed Scott, Paul Shanahan:
I wrote to Dr. Ian Fairchild about the article in the telegraph (CO2 can cause ice ages)… He sent me the paper, which I do not have permission to reprint, but it is published in Science Magazine (subscription required). I haven’t read it yet. He did however, provide me a link which gives a summary that is publicly available.
I had to assume something was amiss and that such a distinguished scientist would not have worded things quite the way telegraph.co.uk “science correspondent” did. In Dr Fairchild’s words, “unfortunately the Telegraph has got the message badly garbled – only sorry that they evidently didn’t have time to contact me before publication!”. Seems inexcusable to me – I’m just sayin’…
Link to summary:
http://www.gees.bham.ac.uk/staff/fairchildresearchglacial.shtml
Note to moderator: Since the telegraph author was not kind enough to contact Dr. Fairchild, this might be the ONLY link to the summary available where the author can speak for himself on this controversial subject, as speculation abounds on the internet about what was really meant by this rather idiotic report. Perhaps a more prominent placement would be in order to set the record straight? This guy has done a lot of published work in paleoclimatology – probably worth a listen.
Michael S.

E.M.Smith
Editor
January 3, 2009 1:45 am

Tom in Texas (20:12:45) : […]
Our “significantly higher than the national average” electricity consumption
is probably due to the invention of the a/c. Or are we just over-indulging ourselves?

I thought it was ’cause Texans figgr’d 10,000 sq. ft. was a good enough size for a small cottage, but a Big House, well, those needed a bit more room!
(Wife’s family is from Texas & I’ve learned to speak a bit of it myself 😉
California talks a lot of BS, but when are they going to be the leader in wind? All along their coast: from San Diego (thru Malibu) to San Francisco, and up to Sacra(mental). I can just picture those towers behind the Golden Gate Bridge.
We’re too busy destroying our industry to build anything. Besides, tacky things don’t belong near the coast; they belong in places that are flat, and empty, and don’t have beaches… We don’t need to actually do anything, we just need to tell you what to do; oh, and import stuff from folks who, like, do do things … you wouldn’t mind sending us some electricity would you? Oh, and $40 Billion of Tarp money too… You better or we’ll wash your windshield…
I have not verified it, but I heard on the TV that California had one IPO last year. One. So much for wealth creation… We’re headed for a deficit variously estimated at $10 Billion now to $40+ Billion next year. The state is planning to send IOUs to employees starting in February. They did this once before a few years back, so it’s not an idle threat. The answer from our legislature? Raise more taxes… “Beatings will continue until moral improves” and “Taxes will be raised until businesses return to the state”…
It saddens me greatly that the once great state of California that made more fortunes than anywhere has come to such ruin. It makes me more worried to see the same disease propagating to DC. If you want to know what’s in store for the rest of the country, just look at what the same folks and the green socialism agenda did here. (And no, I’m not a republican. I’m an independent… I think they all stink.)
Oh, and I second the hope that a frozen no sun spots winter will dampen the AGW enthusiasm… here and abroad. Go Vaclav!
Disclaimer: I’m not funded by big or little oil, and don’t own XOM stock.
I’m not funded by anyone either, dang it. I do own oil stocks, but I’m only buying OOTUS – Out Of The U.S. since I’m fairly certain the Dem congress will be taxing US oil to death. (Primarily PBR in Brazil, PCZ and PGH in Canada and some flakey alternative oil companies into algae and other interesting but money losing things – PSUD, OOIL, RTK, SYNM, VRNM because I would like them to succeed.)
FWIW, in another thread I’d mentioned that the Obama emphasis on alternative energy would take a lot of copper and when prices started up would be time to buy. Well, JJC (copper) jumped up 5% today and more the prior market day. It’s at the 25 day moving average. A bit more and it crosses the 50 to confirm the rally. PCU (+13% today) and FCX (copper miners) have started a good up run. SQM (lithium miner) and FAN, PBW, & GEX (alternative energy wind / solar funds) have all started runs up off the bottom. You may not be able to influence the AGW movement in DC, but maybe you can make money off of it… Hopefully enough to pay the added gas taxes when they hit.
DISCLOSURE: I own some of PCU, FAN, GEX, PGH, PCZ, PBR, and some other small positions in alternative energy companies. None of this colors my opinions and I will trade in or out of them as charts indicate (moving average crossovers) but it is considered ‘good form’ to disclose potential conflicts of interest. Oh, and I own some CLNE (T. Boone Pickens company pushing natural gas / wind instead of oil) more as a political statement against imported oil, though it looks like it’s finally bottomed and started up.
I’m avoiding Euro zone stocks, but have put a fair amount of money into Brazil (EWZ, BAK, CZZ), China (FXI), and India (EPI & IFN or IIF) in the last few days due to the CO2 free pass they get. I’ve also put money into Australia (EWA, IAF) since they are levered to China. When I say that CO2 policies and Cap & Tirade will drive investment to CO2 free pass countries it is not idle speculation, it’s a statement of personal action…
Maybe I’ll move to Texas after California implodes… No income tax. Sigh.

E.M.Smith
Editor
January 3, 2009 2:52 am

Michael S (02:53:43) :
Anthony, would you consider this forum as an area to post a new thread where we could number the claims and begin offering the truth, with references?

The claim in the nuclear section that the LFTR reactor design is needed to solve the concerns that have “prevented Thorium from being used in solid fueled nuclear reactors” is false. Thorium Power (THPW) is a company that makes solid fuel bundles with Thorium. They have bundles in reactors today doing long term burn / acceptance tests.
http://www.thoriumpower.com/default2.asp?nav=technology_solutions&subnav=tech_pub
The notion that we need to develop a whole new reactor design to use Thorium is seriously broken. The bundles can be, and presently are being, loaded into a Russian standard power reactor today.

MartinGAtkins
January 3, 2009 3:34 am

An Australian politician with the guts to speak out.
Leader of the Nationals in the Senate Barnaby Joyce writes to the Agmates community.
“Every age comes up with a witch to burn, a sect that apparently if it is not succumbed will bring about the destruction of an empire, an issue that occupies the rigours of the day.”
http://tinyurl.com/7opzv7

tty
January 3, 2009 4:42 am

Re: Michael S (22:29:05) :
So what’s new? The version in the link is a completely conventional run-through of Snowball/Slushball Earth theory. The only new thing is a new proxy for measuring CO2 in the atmosphere (which was already known to have been extremely high from study of cap carbonates).
The whole incident just highlights the incredible ignorance of MSM journalists and their “slanting” of news. In short: never believe anything you read about climate in the MSM without checking it first.

Rhys Jaggar
January 3, 2009 6:26 am

I’ve said elsewhere that the ‘climate vandals’ need to be the ones who have their electricity cut off if there are shortages. They oppose commissioning of needed capacity, they freeze on the streets in winter. It’s called citizen responsibility.
Sadly, that won’t happen. I don’t think.
It’s like animal rights idiots expecting proper medicines and fancy perfumes. Try killing a few humans by testing drugs on them without animals first, eh? Try the animal rights activists as ‘guinea pigs’, eh? Yeah right…….
2009 should be about the following:
1. Acceptance of the striking PDO/AMO link to US temperature, in the absence of rigorous evidence implying artefacts/data fudging.
2. Setting up of similar evidence-based projects to study link to Europe.
3. Setting up of a 50 year interim power strategy (coal, gas, nuclear, with carbon abatement technology to make coal ‘clean’) to keep the world heated and lit until ‘renewables’ have been adequately tested, scaled-up, productised and cheapened to allow them to serve our needs effectively.
4. Committing to a 100 year monitoring project of surface temperature, air temperatures and arctic/antarctic ice patterns, linked to oceanic parameters, thereby building an evidence base to justify actions in the 22nd century if appropriate.
5. Developing geoengineering technology as a SINGLE, GLOBAL initiative: it is simply UNACCEPTABLE for any country to effect local climate change using such technology, since this will affect the whole world in pretty unpredictable ways. Wars using such technology are a risk in the absence of a single worldwide global deal being struck.
6. Debunking carbon dioxide theories unless scientifically rigorous proofs emerge that it has a significant role to play.
7. Planning for global cooling if the sunspot cycle is delayed another 6 months or more.
IMHO
4.

E.M.Smith
Editor
January 3, 2009 10:17 am

Kum Dollison (19:00:48) :
The Germans are doing a Lot of heaing with Bio-Gas. Maybe Ukraine should take a look at that.

Methane digesters work, but are somewhat slow and very large (best suited to pig farms and other places with lots of land) for the amount of methane produced. They also work best at high temperatures (ie tropical…) so in cold climates you have a heating and insulating problem (& cost) to solve. A 50 gallon digester will give enough methane to light a small candle sized flame… to heat your home would take a digester volume bigger than your yard full of swimming pool. Hot swimming pool. In the snow.
Ukraine has coal (though from what I can tell the mines are not run well / safely) and can kiss off Russian oil & gas by using their coal. It can be made into gas (producer gas, water gas, synthesis gas) and that can be further turned into methane / ethane / gasoline or Diesel fuel if desired.
Many companies around the world know how to do this, though the ones I find most interesting are SSL Sasol, RTK Rentech, SYNM Syntroleum, and SYMX Synthesis Energy Co. RTK has a plant near Los Angeles turning trash into fuels. SYMX and SSL have contracts to build facilities in China (who have clue). This is not a ‘theoretical’, it’s a solution.
I can only conclude that Ukraine are posturing / negotiating the relative rate for their gas transport fees.

pitt bull
January 3, 2009 10:19 am

The earth is indeed not warming because of C02 the poles are shifting and with this ongoing process we are experiencing climate “change” .
This will be used by the elite bankers who govern our planet to further their fascist green socialist agenda blaming every hazard on the ignorant

Garacka
January 3, 2009 5:34 pm

old construction worker (11:53:18) :
“Since CO2 is not the problem and governments already have many income streams, why would you allow them (governments) to create a new bureaucracy in the name of CO2?”
I don’t want them to, but if they are going to do anything, a carbon tax “at the mine” could (I think**) be done with much less bureaucracy than cap & trade on CO2 emissions. I think that’s what Hansen says also. Perhaps we should celebrate a bit of rationality from him.
** I know that just because it could doesn’t mean it would. Why? Because many disgruntled Cap & Traders will want revenge on the taxers and they’ll get it by creating odious regulations to implement the tax which will necessitate all sorts of data, tests, verifications and a bazillion inspectors which will make Cap & Trade look cheap.

Ellie in Belfast
January 3, 2009 6:01 pm

Kum Dollison (19:00:48):
E.M.Smith (10:17:00) has it partially right. Only some digester designs are slow – it depends on what you are trying to digest and how. Needs lots insulation in cold temperatures and the problem would not be keeping the digester warm (if the insulation is good), but keeping the feedstock for it unfrozen. Digestion to methane is probably the most efficient means of energy production from wet organic materials (since otherwise you use a lot of energy evaporating water) and the best digesters can export 80% of the energy they produce (the rest is used in mixing/heating). Size-wise, yes you need a lot of s**t to produce a useful amount of energy.

old construction worker
January 4, 2009 4:57 am

Garacka (17:34:51)
‘I don’t want them to, but if they are going to do anything, a carbon tax “at the mine” could (I think**) be done with much less bureaucracy than cap & trade on CO2 emissions.’
Just tell them (the politicians) No. No CO2 cap and trade, No CO2 tax and No CO2 regulations. They (the politicians) understand being voted out of office. They (the politicians) understand being challenged in court. They (the politicians) understand bad press.

AnonyMoose
January 4, 2009 8:49 am