Monday, December 8, 2008
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA – December 8, 2008 (OWSweather.com) Rare 50 year Arctic Blast Sets Sights On Southern California.
With a week away, and a sure sign of things to come, OWSweather.com is making preparations on the server to handle the traffic from this next event. UJEAS is in line with the majority if not all the other models in keeping a near historical arctic air mass into the Southern California region.
With a warm November, Southern California is finally ready for cold storms to make their way in. Resort level snow will be likely next week, and in pretty hefty amounts if things stay on track. OWSweather.com Meteorologist Kevin Martin predicts a 50 year event. While Martin is usually conservative on these events, the pattern highly favors it. “We are in a pre-1950 type pattern, “said Martin. “We know we are due for a winter storm sometime this year. The type we may be dealing with will be ranked up there with the known years before 1950, which set record low daytime temperatures into the forecast region. With this, may come low elevation snow.”
Forecaster Cameron Venable is seeing very cold temperatures in the Los Angeles areas as well. Torrance is not usually known for winter weather, thus making this an interesting event for Venable to track.
“Temperatures in Siberia, Russia will be -81 degrees this week, “said Martin. “With those type of temperatures the arctic air mass has to spill somewhere. Our answer of the exact track will become more clear this week. All residents in the mountain communities should prepare this week for very cold, winter weather, with snow.”
Indications are a second, colder storm could hit near the 18th-22nd time-frame. The details on that will have to be sorted out.
OWSweather.com staff More information: www.OWSweather.com (h/t to PearlandAggie)
Anthony,
I love your blog and read it daily! But I will tell you that Kevin Martins UJEAS compuuter model is a joke and a fraud. This has been pointed out by many, on some well repsected weather forums.
Not saying it will not be cold, but Kevin Martin always out pimping his UJEAS weather model, that turned to be nothing more than a illustraion he created.
-81 degrees? That’s F, right?
Anywhere near Gvnr Schwarzeneggers (apologies for the spelling) house? 😀
I wonder if -81 degrees is unseasonably “hot” for Siberia…
The control of the Earth’s climate is a political decision subject only to the consensus, and settled, science of politicians.
President-Elect Obama Will Meet with Al Gore to Discuss Climate Change
Obama, Gore to Meet in Chicago
Monday, December 08, 2008
Washington – President-elect Barack Obama and Vice President-elect Joe Biden planned to meet privately with former Vice President Al Gore in Chicago Tuesday, Obama’s transition office said.
In a statement, Obama spokesman Nick Shapiro said the three men would “discuss energy and climate change and how policies in this area can stimulate the economy and create jobs.”
http://www.cnsnews.com/public/content/article.aspx?RsrcID=40493
If there is low elevation snow and cold in California, the cause will be obvious: “climate change”. Because of human GHG emissions, the climate is crazy, normal weather patterns have been broken and yadda yadda yadda…
There is always an argument to support the climate change hysteria.
Natural variences of course.To the global warming crowd keep changing the rules on how you get temps and we will keep watching it get colder and snowier .You may wan’t to put another log on the fire since winter hasn’t officially started yet Dec 9th to be exact but who’s counting.It may be A cold and snowy winter.
Ha! I was just commenting to my wife that the squirrels in our back yard (here in Sacramento) have been more active than I’ve ever seen them, and are much fatter–as if they were preparing for an exceptionally hard winter. Lucky for them, they’ve got nearly limitless calories available from the avocado, orange and hackberry tree–and can plunder neighbor’s yards if need be.
The Snow effect is OUTSTANDING! Laughed hard enough to elicit questions as to what I am looking at on the internet from colleagues. Bravo.
Oh, and good luck CA with the coming Blizzard season!
I saw this yesterday and took a look at GFS output via http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ . If the forecast verifies, New Hampshire will be warmer than Los Angeles for day or two before the cold really moves in. It won’t move out anytime soon, either. GFS only goes out to the 18th, and things are well in place. Ah, the GFS upper level maps go out to the 25th.
Enjoy!
Oh – note that OWSweather.com focuses on Orange County. You folks in the Bay Area will be shivering even more. Maybe even snow, if you’re lucky. (I imagine driving in the Bay Area during a snow storm is not a favorite activity.)
Hmm, 1000-500 mb “thicknesses” suggest temps will be cold enough for snow in the Bay area from the 14th-17th and again from the 19th – Christmas. The latter round might reach San Diego, though at that timeframe the forecast is more fantasy than anything I’d make plans for.
OK… I want to be the first to say that this is only “anecdotal”, in fact the whole Earth could be chin deep in snow and it STILL would not disprove AGW. (sarc)
One part of New Hampshire that will remain colder than Southern CA is Mt, Washington, New Hampshire:
http://mountwashington.org/
The sun stays blank and with the PDO in negative phase, we’re in for a cold winter. Can the son of Dalton Minimum be far behind? The Gods help us if it’s another Maunder Minimum instead. May be Schwarzenegger, Gore and Obama should huddle together to stay warm… LOL
Stop beating about the bush, gentlemen, do get to the point! In light of the changing climate, should we British colonise Norway or Morocco?
…..If it keeps getting warmer, we’ll all freeze to death……
Hmmmm — a snowstorm in Leonardo DiCaprio’s back yard. I doubt that even that would be enough to drive the actor off message.
What I see is the 1940’s all 0ver again-in more ways than the Weather.
The snow effect on your page gave me a chuckle
Sorry Richard; but a colder bunch of turkeys than those three stiffs would be hard to locate right now.
George
If it takes a Maunder event to shake this pestilence from the earth, then I am willing to sacrifice.
December 9, 2008
Continental USA Area Covered By Snow: 34.5%
From:
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/
Wonder what it’ll be after the Arctic blast?
Andy – (a little off topic, but relevant)
This article bears in some intriguing ways to the problems being encountered in combatting climate change.
http://www.cracked.com/article_14990_what-monkeysphere.html
What is the Monkeysphere and how does it relate to climate change?
An interesting and thought provoking article from a unexpected source; I just stumbled upon this.
Dill Weed
A future to horrible to contemplate.
Too late? Why scientists say we should expect the worst:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/dec/09/poznan-copenhagen-global-warming-targets-climate-change
As ministers and officials gather in Poznan one year ahead of the Copenhagen summit on global warming, the second part of a major series looks at the crucial issue of targets
At a high-level academic conference on global warming at Exeter University this summer, climate scientist Kevin Anderson stood before his expert audience and contemplated a strange feeling. He wanted to be wrong. Many of those in the room who knew what he was about to say felt the same. His conclusions had already caused a stir in scientific and political circles. Even committed green campaigners said the implications left them terrified.
Despite the political rhetoric, the scientific warnings, the media headlines and the corporate promises, he would say, carbon emissions were soaring way out of control – far above even the bleak scenarios considered by last year’s report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Stern review. The battle against dangerous climate change had been lost, and the world needed to prepare for things to get very, very bad.
The cream of the UK climate science community sat in stunned silence as Anderson pointed out that carbon emissions since 2000 have risen much faster than anyone thought possible, driven mainly by the coal-fuelled economic boom in the developing world. So much extra pollution is being pumped out, he said, that most of the climate targets debated by politicians and campaigners are fanciful at best, and “dangerously misguided” at worst.
Earlier this year, Jim Hansen, senior climate scientist with Nasa, published a paper that said the world’s carbon targets needed to be urgently revised because of the risk of feedbacks in the climate system. He used reconstructions of the Earth’s past climate to show that a target of 350ppm, significantly below where we are today, is needed to “preserve a planet similar to that on which civilisation developed and to which life on Earth is adapted”. Hansen has suggested a joint review by Britain’s Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences of all research findings since the IPCC report.
Rajendra Pachauri, who chairs the IPCC, argues that suggestions the IPCC report is out of date is “not a valid position at all”.
He said: “What the IPCC produces is not based on two years of literature, but 30 or 40 years of literature. We’re not dealing with short-term weather changes, we’re talking about major changes in our climate system. I refuse to accept that a few papers are in any way going to influence the long-term projections the IPCC has come up with.”
Snow in Southern California is always exciting, particularly if you can watch from a distance.
Colorado is a much worse place for a weather forcast. Every day in the past two weeks has been colder than predicted. (except for one or two that were warmer 🙂 And lots of snow, except when predicted. “Average” is what the temperature won’t be.
So, December is running along just as it usually does, although a little more local warming would reduce my heating bill… Even a bit of UHI would help.
I have been following Kevin’s work for a long time now. His UJEAS model is VERY impressive and its been a success. I love his work and I have no doubt that this guy will be more world famous as he continues to impress the world with his genius weather brain. Anyone caught calling him a fraud is nothing more than a jealous hater much like girls hating on Miley Cyrus. Kevin’s good people and I for one know this will be good. Ric, I want to point out that snow will be hitting SoCal regions too and he focuses not just on Orange County but any huge event he will focus in on. I have a feeling since this is his discovery that he will take full advantage to insure people know what to expect as these systems roll on in.
OWSweather.com appears to be a k00k who believes in the absurd “chemtrails” conspiracy theory.
A better link might be the
California Severe Weather Alerts page at weather.com