Calls theories on the cause ‘contradictory’
By Bryan Bender
Boston Globe / December 6, 2008
WASHINGTON – A new US military report has come under scrutiny for asserting that the scientific data on what is causing global warming is “contradictory” – a position one leading specialist said indicates the government still hasn’t fully embraced the urgency of climate change.
The long-range planning document, published Thursday by the US Joint Forces Command in Norfolk, Va., which is responsible for developing blueprints for future military strategy, is intended to provide a “basis for thinking about the world a quarter of a century from now.”
But a section of the 56-page report on climate change and natural disasters prompted criticism yesterday from some leading specialists who said that spreading the inaccurate perception that the causes of climate change remain an open question could result in government agencies not taking the issue seriously enough.
The report, titled Joint Operating Environment 2008, states that “the impact of global warming and its potential to cause natural disasters and other harmful phenomena such as rising sea levels has become a prominent – and controversial – national and international concern. Some argue that there will be more and greater storms and natural disasters, others that there will be fewer.”
It adds: “In many respects, scientific conclusions about the causes and potential effects of global warming are contradictory.”
That last line in particular was singled out at a panel discussion hosted yesterday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, on the topic of climate change and national security.
Sharon Burke, a former Pentagon and State Department official who is now a specialist at the Center for a New American Security, said the report was factually “wrong” and “out of line,” saying that there is a wide consensus that human activity, namely the production of greenhouse gases, is responsible for global warming.
Other specialists had similar reactions when they read the report.
“It’s very wrong,” said Kerry Emanuel, a professor of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology whose work was cited in the military report. “The jury is not out” on what is causing global warming, he added. “I don’t know where that statement came from, but it’s pretty bizarre.”
Emanuel also took issue with the report’s assertions about future storm intensity.
“Everyone pretty much agrees that the intensity of events could go up with global warming, although we argue how much,” he said in an interview.
The Joint Forces Command maintains that it is fully cognizant of the threat posed by climate change, saying the purpose of the report was not to debate what is or isn’t causing global warming.
“We are in complete agreement that climate change will be a national security driver in the future,” said Rear Admiral John M. Richardson, director of strategy for the command. “We are focused on the implications of climate change. We see what is happening. What is causing it is not in our purview. The commanders have to deal with the effects.”
He added in an interview yesterday: “Don’t take away that we think it is any less important.”
At yesterday’s conference, specialists agreed that the cascading effects of global warming – including drought, flooding, population flows, and disease epidemics – present the United States and other countries with enormous security threats in the years ahead – warnings that have been echoed by recent Pentagon reports and intelligence assessments.
Ronald Sugar, the CEO of Northrop Grumman, one of the nation’s leading defense companies, spoke of the need for private industry and the government to begin the difficult task of bridging the enormous knowledge base about what is happening to the earth’s climate to development of technical solutions that can help repair it.
“We have to build something that does not exist,” Sugar said.
But Burke said in a follow-up interview that it remains worrisome that some in the military command responsible for helping prepare for future dangers still appear to question the science of why global warming is occurring. She believes there are many in the government who still don’t fully embrace it. That makes it far more difficult for the leadership necessary to move the country to make the enormous changes necessary, she said.
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Ric Werme:
You are correct in stating that seawater density, rather than just salinity, is the governing factor in thermohaline circulation. But, notwithstanding efforts by the Gore School of Oceanography to elevate it to overarching significance, THC constitutes merely a minor, sluggish, sub-surface adjustment to the wind-driven anti-cyclonic circulation that transports heat poleward (e.g., Gulf Stream, the Kuroisho, Brazil, and Agulhas Currents) and returns cool water to temperate latitudes (e.g., Benguella, Peru, California Currents). The wind-driven circulation is orders of magnitude more important. And the whole point of my discussion is the global heat content and its variability, not just the mechanics of oceanic transport.
“”” The Younger Dryas stadial, named after the alpine / tundra wildflower Dryas octopetala, and also referred to as the Big Freeze,[1] was a brief (approximately 1,300 ± 70 years) cold climate period following the Bölling/Allerød interstadial at the end of the Pleistocene between approximately 12,800 to 11,500 years Before Present,[2] and preceding the Preboreal of the early Holocene. In Ireland, the period has been known as the Nahanagan Stadial, while in the UK it has been called the Loch Lomond Stadial and most recently Greenland Stadial 1 (GS1).[3]
The Younger Dryas (GS1) is also a Blytt-Sernander climate period detected from layers in north European bog peat. It is dated approximately 12,900-11,500 BP calibrated, or 11,000-10,000 BP uncalibrated. An Older Dryas stadial had preceded the Allerød, approximately 1,000 years before the Younger Dryas; it lasted 300 years.[4] “””
I can’t say I have read so many gobbledegook buzzwords in such a small space before; courtesy of Wicked peedya. No wonder the general public glazes over when encountering science articles.
The above is more convoluted than the family histories of “War and Peace”, “Anna Karenina”, and “Quiet Flows the Don” all rolled into one book.
As for the “Thermohaline Circulation” I believe that stopping it involves a certain operation called “Stopping the Planetary Rotation”.
I always wanted to reverse the planetary rotation, so we could have a warm gulf stream, and tropical pelagic fishes along the California Coast, and you all Easterners could have your Atlantic Salmon back.
I’ll let you know before I apply the brakes !
Bruce Cobb – thanks for yet another ad-hom-style straw man.
The Flat-Earth-Society “argument” straight out of the AGW-crowd’s handbook – and seems like it fits anything these days, eh?
Now, guess who wrote this in a reply to someone else:
“[X] not only seems to think his is the only valid viewpoint, but goes out of his way to belittle the views of others.”
Answer: you did – and in case you “forgot” all about it already.
But ok – now I’m outta here – I promise!… 😉
Freezing Finn: But, I said I believed, didn’t I? I also believe in Sylphs, which are “elementals” in the form of clouds. When you see a cloud that resembles a dragon or angel or bearded god, that’s essentially what it really is. It is a spirit embodied by clouds. These Sylphs do various supernatural things as the jet stream pushes them along, but most importantly for us, they destroy and/or consume CHEMTRAILS!!!
So, there’s no need to worry – the Sylphs will save us!
@Ed Scott (20:13:53) :
You wrote in part:
“H.R.
Reflecting on the general population and noting the number of citizens who are willing to mind your business as well as their own, there should be no shortage of volunteers for the monitoring ass-ignments. I am curious about the job description and the name for the agents. I am sure the EPA can come up with a catchy acronym.”
I think they might form the Fetid Air Recovery Team whose job it would be to capture and quantify exhaust from the human tailpipe for the purpose of determining the appropriate tax rate to charge the emmiter.
(Scary. I’m not sure whether I wrote a wee bit of humor or a glimpse of the future.)
How dare the military be allowed to think independently?
What useful idiots the press make. There is no global warming. It might be nice if there was but. Real science seems to indicate we are headed for an ice age.