This NOAA press release just showed up in my inbox, it seems to be a completely different take on the Hurricane season than that of Florida State’s COAPS and Ryan Maue who says:
Record inactivity continues: Past 24-months of Northern Hemisphere TC activity (ACE) lowest in 30-years.
Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sum through October 31, 2008. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months.
This was discussed at length at Climate Audit here
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: Carmeyia Gillis
Nov. 26, 2008
301-763-8000, ext. 7163 (office)
240-882-9047 (cellular)
Dennis Feltgen
305-229-4404 (office)
305-433-1933 (cellular)
Atlantic Hurricane Season Sets Records
The 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially comes to a close on Sunday, marking the end of a season that produced a record number of consecutive storms to strike the United States and ranks as one of the more active seasons in the 64 years since comprehensive records began.
A total of 16 named storms formed this season, based on an operational estimate by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. The storms included eight hurricanes, five of which were major hurricanes at Category 3 strength or higher. These numbers fall within the ranges predicted in NOAA’s pre- and mid-season outlooks issued in May and August. The August outlook called for 14 to 18 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes. An average season has 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
“This year’s hurricane season continues the current active hurricane era and is the tenth season to produce above-normal activity in the past 14 years,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Overall, the season is tied as the fourth most active in terms of named storms (16) and major hurricanes (five), and is tied as the fifth most active in terms of hurricanes (eight) since 1944, which was the first year aircraft missions flew into tropical storms and hurricanes.
For the first time on record, six consecutive tropical cyclones (Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike) made landfall on the U.S. mainland and a record three major hurricanes (Gustav, Ike and Paloma) struck Cuba. This is also the first Atlantic season to have a major hurricane (Category 3) form in five consecutive months (July: Bertha, August: Gustav, September: Ike, October: Omar, November: Paloma).
Bell attributes this year’s above-normal season to conditions that include:
- An ongoing multi-decadal signal. This combination of ocean and atmospheric conditions has spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995.
- Lingering La Niña effects. Although the La Niña that began in the Fall of 2007 ended in June, its influence of light wind shear lingered.
- Warmer tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures. On average, the tropical Atlantic was about 1.0 degree Fahrenheit above normal during the peak of the season.
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center is conducting comprehensive post-event assessments of each named storm of the season. Some of the early noteworthy findings include:
- Bertha was a tropical cyclone for 17 days (July 3-20), making it the longest-lived July storm on record in the Atlantic Basin.
- Fay is the only storm on record to make landfall four times in the state of Florida, and to prompt tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for the state’s entire coastline (at various times during its August lifespan).
- Paloma, reaching Category 4 status with top winds of 145 mph, is the second strongest November hurricane on record (behind Lenny in 1999 with top winds of 155 mph).
Much of the storm-specific information is based on operational estimates and some changes could be made during the review process that is underway.
“The information we’ll gain by assessing the events from the 2008 hurricane season will help us do an even better job in the future,” said Bill Read, director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. “With this season behind us, it’s time to prepare for the one that lies ahead.”
NOAA will issue its initial 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook in May, prior to the official start of the season on June 1.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
A graphic track map of this season’s storms and satellite visualization of the entire season is available at http://www.noaa.gov.
On the Web:
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center: http://www.hurricanes.gov
NHC 2008 Tropical Cyclone Reports: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2008atlan.shtml
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What a joke… now the number of consecutive storms to hit the US is news… perhaps they will try to claim that global warming causes storm tracks to bring storms to the US.
MSNBC will probably use that report as proof that this was the “Worst huricane season since records began”.
Well, NOAA needed to report something! Pats NOAA on the head… “That’s nice NOAA I’ll put it on the fridge”.
There must be a mechanism that allows for NOAAs claim to be challenged, no?
And don’t pat me on the head 😉
JimB
How many major hurricanes (Cat 3 or higher at landfall) hit the U.S. mainland in 2008? How about 2007? As of 2006, the count of major hurricane strikes for the current decade was seven. Does anyone know if it increased in 2007 or 2008?
The record of ten was set in the 1940s and has yet to be surpassed. There is no higher high to see yet.
There are only two years left in the current decade (2001 to 2010). If the total remains unchanged, this decade will only be slightly above the decadal average of 6.2 in terms of major strikes.
One can’t help but wonder if some of the increase in activity is an artifact of the data collection process, which has changed quite a bit over the last century and a half. That would be my bet.
“There must be a mechanism that allows for NOAAs claim to be challenged, no?”
Seriously? You must be new here.
As Mike C notes, the wording makes it seem more alarming than it may be:
The “record” is “consecutive storms to strike the United States” which is kind of meaningless.
And the real story is “and ranks as one of the more active seasons”, which we knew already.
And no mention of ACE.
So it is really a non-story with a meaningless headline puffed up possibly to generate alarm.
I’m betting that meaningless headline ends up on front and center in some sensationalized report tying global warming to record setting hurricane activity. I’m just sayin…
How is that a different take? Maue’s data is for the Northern Hemisphere, while the NOAA press release is about the Atlantic. It was the Pacific that was dead this year.
The link between more frequent storms and their strength was debunked already. But it is clear that if warming does not cause more frequent and stronger storms than the reverse must hold truth. What they won’t tell you is that maybe there were more storms this year because the earth is cooling and because the sun radiates less energy. I can hear AlGorific saying to his followers: “Told you so! Now you must adore me!”
Peter: I would not bet against you.
Next week the world’s Climate Ministers and a (very) heavy IPCC delegation will meet at the EC Climate Change Conference in Poland.
Be sure the recent NOAA report will be on the table to push for immediate measures to reduce carbon emissions.
In Europe the media bombarded the public with “hoax” messages about AGW.
The dying pine woods, the vanishing Ice Caps, the polar bears, the rising sea levels, the increased mortality due to heat waves, the raise in infectious disease and pandemics, the loss of coastal areas, the loss of Tivalu and the Maladives, even Gore’s Inconvenient Truth was broadcasted on public televsion, followed by a discussion program with WWF and Greenpeace representatives at the table.
We were very lucky to have a cold spell in Europe with lots of snow.
There is no better remedy against Global Warming.
I think the majority of the people know they are being manipulated into an expensive hoax.
I didn’t realize “consecutive storms to strike the US” was a metric that indicated AGW.
Learn something new every day….
Accumulated cyclone energy. I had no clue. Anthony, this is why a geek Systems Engineer like myself loves this site. I learn something new every day. Thanks and happy Thanksgiving to all!
Please click the link: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/
Very clearly, the ACE rose from 1980 through the massive El Nino in 1998. This has, time and time again, been trotted out as an indication of AGW (quite a leap).
So if an increasing ACE indicates warming, what, pray tell, does a declining ACE indicate?
I was waiting in the Dr.’s office today scanning a copy of “Audubon” magazine. I wish now I’d noticed the issue but it had to be from early in the year as one of the articles quoted an NOAA scientist’s prediction of a large increase in the number and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes for the coming season. I guess I’ll have to wait for next year’s pannual physical to find out what “Audubon” writes about the results of that prediction. But my guess is that the NOAA release above will be quoted and there’ll be no mention of ACE. I’m expecting a “See, we told ya so,” article with even scarier projections for 2009.
From the other articles I had time to scan I found that “Audubon” magazine is quite the advocate for AGW and a fair proportion of the articles had an AGW tie-in. I wasn’t aware of their position until today, but somehow it didn’t come as a surprise to me.
P.S. Has anyone accounted for the megatons of carbon sequestered in outdated magazines accumulating in healthcare providers’ offices? I thought not. ;0)
MattN (11:43:33) (and pretty much everyone else that commented in this thread),
Where does the article mention AGW?
Fact is, the Atlantic was above normal this year, and had some interesting activity. Do you expect NOAA to release a statement on West Pacific typhoon activity? The NOAA bashing is completely uncalled for here.
Some have scolded me for my repeat accusations over the years of count padding and fueling of AGW hysteria by the NHC. Well? Where are my critics today?
MattN (11:43:33) :
“I didn’t realize “consecutive storms to strike the US” was a metric that indicated AGW.
Learn something new every day….”
MatttN,
Although we know better, the AGW bandwagon is linking ALL extreme weather events directly to Global Warming. Gore’s Inconvenient Truth in fact starts with images from Katrina.
@ur momisugly Fred (12:27:47) :
You wrote in part, “MattN (11:43:33) (and pretty much everyone else that commented in this thread),
Where does the article mention AGW?”…
The “Audobon” article I read tied the forecast to AGW. As you have noted the article above does not. It just gives results for the season with just a smidge of hyperbole (“for the first time on record six…”). My post illustrated what others do with NOAA releases.
My post script illustrates the strange places to where random thoughts about carbon might lead. I’ve read many an odder thought about carbon than mine from A-CO2-GW advocates. I’m a piker in that regard.
Jim B Canada (10:58:30) :
“There must be a mechanism that allows for NOAAs claim to be challenged, no?”
Seriously? You must be new here”
Well…yeah…but…but…but… ;*)
JimB USA
NOAA’s report pertains to the 2008 tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic Basin. COAP’s report pertains to the 2008 tropical cyclone season in the NH.
Ryan Maue’s data below shows activity was above normal in the North Atlantic Basin and below normal in the Pacific Basins.
Recent Activity (Updated through Nov 24, 2008, 12:00)
Basin 2008 ACE CLIM ACE % of NORM
Western Pacific 158 298 53%
Eastern Pacific 82.9 140.7 59%
North Atlantic 141.7 101.8 139%
North Indian 18.8 14.1 133%
Northern Hemisphere 400 555 72%
“NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun”:
Its spelled H. U. B. R I. S.
Fred:
Seriously? Come on. You cannot possibly hold the position that alarmist such as Gore have not directly stated increased hurricane activity is an indication of CO2 induced warming.
Ron:
I know.
Steve:
I am in agreement that someone is padding the hurricane stats. They have assigned names to storms that I am POSITIVE 10-15 years ago would have never recieved a name. Maybe it’s simply a matter of we have significantly better technology to identify these storms now than we did 10-15 years ago. Does that mean we need a “correction” so we can compare to the 1980s and before? I think ACE is a better measuring stick in this regard.
NOAA”s report pertains to the 2008 Tropical Cyclone season in the North Atlantic Basin. COAP’s pertains to the 2008 Tropical Cyclone season in the NH.
Ryan Maue’s data below shows the activity in the North Atlantic Basin was much above normal and the activity in the Pacific Basins was below normal.
Basin 2008 ACE CLIMO ACE % of NORM
Western Pacific 158 298 53%
Eastern Pacific 82.9 140.7 59%
North Atlantic 141.7 101.8 139%
North Indian 18.8 14.1 133%
Northern Hemisphere 400 555 72%