by John Goetz
Update: Thanks to an email from John S. – a patron of climateaudit.org – we have learned that the Russian data in NOAA’s GHCN v2.mean dataset is corrupted. For most (if not all) stations in Russia, the September data has been replicated as October data, artificially raising the October temperature many degrees. The data from NOAA is used by GISS to calculate the global temperature. Thus the record-setting anomaly for October 2008 is invalid and we await the highly-publicised corrections from NOAA and GISS.
Update 2: The faulty results have been (mostly) backed out of the GISS website. The rest should be done following the federal holiday. GISS says they will update the analysis once they confirm with NOAA that the software problems have been corrected. I also removed the subtitles since the GISS data no longer reflects October as being the warmest ever.
GISS (Goddard Institute of Space Studies) Surface Temperature Analysis (GISSTemp) released their monthly global temperature anomaly data for October 2008. Following is the monthly global ∆T from January to October 2008:
Year J F M A M J J A S O
2007 85 61 59 64 55 53 53 56 50 54
2008 14 25 62 36 40 32 52 39 50 78
Here is a plot of the GISSTemp monthly anomaly since January 1979 (keeping in line with the time period displayed for UAH). I have added a simple 12-month moving average displayed in red.
The addition of October has changed some of the temperatures for earlier months:
GISS 2008 J F M A M J J A S O
As of 9/08 14 25 62 36 40 29 53 50 49 ..
As of 10/08 14 25 62 36 40 32 52 39 50 78
The 0.78 C anomaly in October is the largest ever for October, and one of the largest anomalies ever recorded. Although North America was cooler than normal, Asia apparently suffered from a massive heat wave.
Also, after several months of being downgraded to a 0.61 C anomaly, 2005 has been lifted back to 0.62 C.
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from now on peer reviewed papers should now reject articels that refer to GISS temperatures.
HadSST2 is out: globally, the ocean surface temperature anomaly dropped from +0.371C in Sep 08 to +0.317 in Oct 08.
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadsst2gl.txt
This matches nicely [bearing in mind different baselines] the drop in UAH satellite-derived temperature anomaly over the global oceans from +0.11C to +0.03C
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
Arctic ice area back to normal today, for the first time in several years. No doubt due to the record October warmth up north.
http://eva.nersc.no/vhost/arctic-roos.org/doc/observations/images/ssmi1_ice_area.png
What goes on is a contest. That is to say “The will of freedom” vs. “The will of Government”. I’ll be damned if the will of the governmnet beats me and the rest of us who will defend the will of freedom. Here’s a few pearls for Hansen and the rest of those who wish to impose their will on us, “The will to fight for freedom and independence in 1776 still exists today”. “There are a great many of us who will under no circumstance allow the oppression of government rule to pervade over our freedom—-PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
My best guess is they made an honest mistake like the one suggested by Bruce.
It probably is a mistake but I’m surprised they’ve not managed to pick up such obvious outliers.
GISS=Gore Institute of Swindle Science. Nothing silly about the cost to consumers of B.O.’s skyrocketing electricity prices.
You would think the temp map results would have drawn a “red flag” with somebody…. te he.
@John M (16:15:28) :
You wrote, “I have the perfect “win-win”.
Obama should appoint Hansen to an Adminstration post.
He can publish the monthly GDP numbers.
Dow 15,000, here we come!”
I LIKE the way you think! Except… you left out the tipping point. That’s where the Dow runs away to 140,000 by 2050.
Hmmm… now you’ve got me thinking. We’ve had a tech bubble, a real estate bubble, and an oil bubble. Is a global temperature bubble next?
That’s right BC, boreal forest fire incidence has absolutely nothing to do with climate whatsoever….
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2005JD006738.shtml
…..yeah.
Of course fire management practices have influenced the occurrence of wildfires, but your statements against this NOAA chap are just as un-nuanced lacking any legitimate context in climate. Yes, there is considerable ignorance of the causes and role of wildfires in controlling the ecology of the boreal forests amongst climate and atmospheric folks (this is changing – see ARCTAS this year), but that doesn’t negate the influence of climate now or the influence of a future changed climate upon this phenomenon.
I guess it’s more likely they’d have noticed a similar mistake if made in April 🙂
Not to worry everyone. After making CERTAIN headlines, Hansen will adjust Oct 08 down at least .1. No one will notice. Except us.
When you believe in global warming you don’t go looking for things that will change your beliefs.
This is, BTW, a significantly better view of what really happened last month: http://www.remss.com/data/msu/graphics/tlt/medium/global/ch_tlt_2008_10_anom_v03_2.png
I encourace you to compare it to previous years. Not remotely close to the warmest October.
Let’s not forget “the mother of all mistakes” – the arithmetic error in the UAH processing algorithm. When it was discovered (back in 2005?), the UAH decadal temperature trend increased a whopping 25% (from 0.09 to 0.12 degrees).
I didn’t hear anybody back then saying that “peer reviewed papers should now reject articles that refer to UAH temperatures”, or that there was something nefarious going on.
And nobody here seems to think that the UAH results have been forever “poisoned” because of that (rather significant) error.
UAH made a mistake. The latest GISS results may be a mistake. If so, it will soon be corrected. That’s the way science works. Deal with it.
Chris V. (17:55:50) :
No, we leave that to the Tamino denizens. Funny, I haven’t seen you giving a similar caution over there.
Chris V.
You are probably correct, but people here see our president elect using these numbers (probably through advisers) to proceed with his declared position to stop the use of fossil fuels. It is a blind process without science or rational thinking. But you must also note that NASA has very poor oversight when publishing a data set that is used world wide. Maybe this is the new government standard and none of us has to pay our taxes as no one is checking.
Isn’t it time someone called for ‘Dr’ Hansen’s head on a silver platter? Or else sued him for fraudulently wasting tax payer’s money?
A five minute check of the text files in the hotspot reveals a number of other stations in which September data has been copied across to October, e.g. Enisejk, Kolpasevo, Suntar, Viljujsk, Minusinsk and Tura.
See my post on this here.
Simon
Australian Climate Madness
Never attribute to conspiracy what one may attribute to idiocy.
Remember folks,
Climate changes, right? My question is simple. Does CO2 cause climate change? The vast majority of the studies, which assume warming due to AGW, never address this simple question.
How can manipulating 0.00006 ppv of our atmosphere cause a tipping point?
We know the oceans inhale a few years worth of man’s emmissions every yearly breath she takes.
This GISS nonsense needs to be rooted out with FOI action. The first thing I would try to archive is the ORIGINAL, uncorrected, RECORD for all data available.
Do GISS unadulterated data still exist? Then request all calcs and other materials supporting the manipulate of the data. Get all the data first.
Can this be done?
“As several of us have been saying, temperatures that warm would simply not support the rapid ice/snow growth seen in that area over the past month.”
.
Maybe that’s why CT has Arctic Sea Ice Area falling precipitously.
But wait; it gets even stranger. Check out Erbogacen at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/work/gistemp/STATIONS//tmp.222248170006.1.1/station.txt and you’ll see
Year Sep Oct
2000 4.7 -7.9
2001 4.6 -4.0
2002 5.7 -5.8
2003 6.4 -5.0
2004 5.8 -4.3
2005 7.3 -3.9
2006 6.1 -8.9
2007 5.8 -2.6
2008 999.9 5.0
This is a scream. September ’08 is the hottest October on record. Oh, my God!
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Question… is there a way to download all the text data for Russia (or the entire planet for that matter) in one step, and look at it later?
My hat is old.
My teeth are gold.
I have a bird
I like to hold.
My shoe is off.
My foot is cold.
My shoe is off.
My foot is cold.
I have a bird
I liked to hold.
My hat is old.
My teeth are gold.
And now
my story
is all told.
–Dr. Seuss