UAH (University of Alabama, Huntsville) Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) lower troposphere global temperature anomaly data for September 2008 was published this week and unlike August, which moved a bit below the zero anomaly line, with a value of -0.010°C, (down from 0.048°C in July 2008) we now have a significant positive jump to 0.161°C. That makes it the warmest monthly temperature this year.
The global UAH ∆T from August to September 2008 was 0.162°C and is 0.040°C, slightly cooler than in September 2007.
UAH
2008 1 -0.046
2008 2 0.020
2008 3 0.094
2008 4 0.015
2008 5 -0.180
2008 6 -0.114
2008 7 0.048
2008 8 -0.010
2008 9 0.161
Click for a larger image
Reference: UAH lower troposphere data
The biggest came came in the southern hemisphere, which went from -0.185°C to 0.102°C in September, a gain of .287°C.
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“Now I know this is just a snapshot,”
On the assumption of ‘eso no es un problema’, the upturn indicates dumped heat over the month. The models, whatever their limits, are turning south. Wouldn’t we expect, then, less intensity in a snap?
[…] UAH Global Temperature Anomaly Jumps in September […]
“if temps don’t increase to the levels the models would have predicted (a UAH anomaly of +1.3C for example) they will be forced to admit the models don’t add up (and they don’t.)”
Good analysis, unlikely outcome (honest candor).
So, september is still on the cooling track that began in 2005 (after the 2004 big dive).
Ground : with the weak sun, there might be a kind of heat redistribution between surface and low atmospher – even adjusted, flaw GISS data are flatening.
Seas and oceans’ surface : september was hot in north Pacific and other areas. It is cooling back now. It is quite probable that oceans gave a little heat back before a new Niña.
if temps don’t increase to the levels the models would have predicted (a UAH anomaly of +1.3C for example) they will be forced to admit the models don’t add up (and they don’t.)
Given that UAH is baselined (zero-ed) on the mean temp for 1978-1998 and the model-projected trend is in the region 0.2C / decade, a +1.3C anomaly now would mean that ‘they’ would be forced to admit that the models had drastically underestimated the rate of warming.
Peter (11:15:05) :
“So what caused it to cool down while the oven’s still on?”
(sigh) If you have been reading this blog over the last year or so then you should be familiar with the words ‘La Nina’.
Basil (11:14:08) :
Looking at HadSST2, NH SST’s were up a little in September, but not as much as UAH shows. Could this be explained simply by the difference between surface and troposphere conditions? E.g., did the troposphere over water warm up more than at the surface in September?
Just wondering.
Could the hurricanes explain it? i.e. by a transfer of heat from oceans to atmosphere. I’ve no idea if the manitude of the heat exchange is sufficient to account for the discrepancy over an entire month and on a global scale.
So what caused it to cool down while the oven’s still on?
I thought the oven had been turned off – or so a number of posters have been claiming particularly on the solar-related threads. Many have been saying that significant cooling is already underway and this will continue for several years so ending the AGW party.
I think they are going to be disappointed.
The September 2008 anomaly may have been +0.161 but it was still cooler them then September 2007 anomaly of +0.201 degrees.
That marks the 13 consecutive month of cooling temperatures.
Mary, 03:03, It appears a glacier from ‘La Nina’ cut the gas line to your oven 450K years ago. If you had been reading this blog over the last year you would know the only reason the oven appears to be on occasionally is called ‘El Nino’.
It is interesting people can hold onto their faith in CO2 when whatever its effects are, are totally overwhelmed by these babies.
I have a question…
Does the UAH do a data adjustment for UHI? I know this isn’t surface temperature measurements, so I’m just wondering.
REPLY: No UHI adjustment that I’m aware of. – Anthony
Ice covered, packed snow in spots and no studs. Damn, damn, damn!
http://www.tripcheck.com/popups/Cam.asp?camera=637&curRegion=3
Maybe Gore will buy my “studs on too early” ticket as a carbon credit.
Mary Hinge: “(sigh) If you have been reading this blog over the last year or so then you should be familiar with the words ‘La Nina’”
And at the end of the La Nina it starts warming again! Looks like you just answered your own question.
Sean (04:13:12) :
The September 2008 anomaly may have been +0.161 but it was still cooler them then September 2007 anomaly of +0.201 degrees.
That marks the 13 consecutive month of cooling temperatures
That will be due to the La Nina which kicked in just over a year ago. Now it’s over we should see a gradual rise in global temperatures. I reckon we’ll be back to early 2007 temperatures within ~6 months.
Nope. 2008 will see colder temps than 2007. La Nina, La Nino, and any other nina/o that we haven’t discovered yet is small potatoes compared to the PDO which drives such events. Ever put your foot in the Pacific Ocean off of Oregon when it is in its cold phase? Think rapid freeze dried toes.
“If you had been reading this blog over the last year you would know the only reason the oven appears to be on occasionally is called ‘El Nino’.”
Wow!! Century long El Nino, that explains everything….
Nope. 2008 will see colder temps than 2007.
I never said 2008 would be warmer than 2007. I said global temperatures would be back to early 2007 levels within about 6 months, i.e. spring 2009 will be approximately as warm as spring 2007.
Often we make the mistake of thinking what we are experiencing locally is happening on a global scale. I accept you may be experiencing cooler than normal conditions, but over here in the UK I spent this afternoon sitting in the garden on what was a gloriously warm day. Large parts of Russia, the largest country (in area) in the world, has for the past week had temperatures
several degrees above above average over the last week.
As I write this I’ve been listening to the UK weather forecast and we’ve got more of the same. Temperatures well above average for the coming week.
“Mary Hinge (01:22:08) :
Harold Ambler (16:08:56) :
“Takes a while for a hot apple pie to cool down — especially a big one”
What is unusual is for a cooling apple pie to start heating up again!! ”
Actually Mary, all that has heated up is the result of whatever algorithm that James Hansen uses for his GISS once per year output for his department budget which he calls anomalies. Other people’s too of course; but it would be a mistake to compoare a GISS number with anything else but another GISS number.
One thing is for sure and that is that it is NOT the mean surface temperature of the earth.
It is actually the result of a sort of religious ritual; like the Catholic priest ata funeral walking around swinging a brass pot emitting smoke and waving it a round. His Congregation compar what he does with every other time they have seen him do it; or maybe they remember what they may have seen in a Russian Eastern Orthodox church. so long as the ritual doesn’t change, everyone is comfortable, even though they have no earthly idea what it means.
Same with GISStemp, it has no real scientific significance; except how it changes from previous observances of the same ritual. But it doesn’t tell anybody whether the planet made a net gain in energy or a net loss, or stayed the same.
The peak spectral radiant emittance from the earth surface varies as the fifth power of the temperature (K), and the peak wavelength shifts inversely as the temprature changing the influence of the GHG absorption lines, and the total radiant emittance varies as the fourth power of the temperature. So averaging the temperatures of a selected few spots on the earth, and places that have constantly changed ovet the years, both in numbers and local environment serves no purpose but to perpetuate the religious ritual.
And the thermal processes that occur for different terrains, like open oceans, tropical rain forests, Arctic ice sheets, or tropical deserts, are not simply related to the local temperature, so again no purpose in averaging.
It is like having the World Wildlife federation taking a survey of the worlds animals, and counting the total number of animals per square km all over the world. the numbers for elephants, and locusts ar egoing to be quite different, so nothing is learned by averaging all of them regardless of species.
Same goes for sampling earthly temperatures. No scientific validity to that at all; just repeat the ritual the same way, and people will compare it to your last celebration.
George E. Smith (15:27:58) :
“It is actually the result of a sort of religious ritual; like the Catholic priest ata funeral walking around swinging a brass pot emitting smoke and waving it a round. His Congregation compar what he does with every other time they have seen him do it; or maybe they remember what they may have seen in a Russian Eastern Orthodox church. so long as the ritual doesn’t change, everyone is comfortable, even though they have no earthly idea what it means.”
“…purpose but to perpetuate the religious ritual.”
” just repeat the ritual the same way, and people will compare it to your last celebration.”
Why is it when trying to argue their very weak position with pseudoscience, people like this always try to paint the other argument as a religion.
This is a typical pseudointellectual response from a typical denier.
Often we make the mistake of thinking what we are experiencing locally is happening on a global scale. I accept you may be experiencing cooler than normal conditions, but over here in the UK I spent this afternoon sitting in the garden on what was a gloriously warm day.
Is this the same UK that just had it’s first October snow in 70 years?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/29/snow-blankets-london-for-global-warming-debate-first-october-snow-in-over-70-years/