Solar Cycle 24 just can’t seem to get rolling. IPS announced today (IPS is the Australian Space Weather Agency) , that it has changed its forecast for Solar Cycle 24, pushing it’s start into the future by six months. They write:
Due to the proximity of the IPS predicted rise of solar cycle 24
to observed solar cycle 23 solar minimum values, and the apparent lack
of new Cycle 24 sunspots, IPS has again moved the predicted solar cycle
away by 6 months.
The announcement came on the IPS web page, today, on the day that two small cycle 23 sunspots have started to appear near the solar equator. Many had expected more cycle 24 spots to be visible by now, but the sun remains quiet, and has been producing more cycle 23 spots than cycle 24 spots so far since the first cycle 24 spot was seen on January 4th, 2008
August 21st, 2008 spots – Photo: Pavol Rapavy
NASA’s David Hathaway is still expecting a start of cycle 24 this year, with an upturn soon, late in 2008 or early 2009.
Above: The solar cycle, 1995-2015. The “noisy” curve traces measured sunspot numbers; the smoothed curves are predictions. Credit: D. Hathaway/NASA/MSFC.
As many of you know, the sun has been very quiet, especially in the last month. In a July 11th 2008 NASA news release article titled What’s Wrong with the Sun? (Nothing) solar physicist David Hathaway goes on record as saying:
“It does seem like it’s taking a long time,” allows Hathaway, “but I think we’re just forgetting how long a solar minimum can last.”
The new IPS prediction puts the sunspot upturn to begin around April to July 2009. It will be interesting to see if Hathaway follows with a new prediction in the wake of the IPS announcement. There already has been one change in Hathaway’s prediction this year, so it would not be surprising to see another.
The IPS announcment is shown below.
big hat tip to John-X
IPS OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES FOR CYCLE 24
CYCLE 24 PREDICTION MOVED AWAY BY 6 MONTHS
Due to the proximity of the IPS predicted rise of solar cycle 24
to observed solar cycle 23 solar minimum values, and the apparent lack
of new Cycle 24 sunspots, IPS has again moved the predicted solar cycle
away by 6 months.
Prepared by IPS Radio and Space Services
Issued on Aug 21 2008
———————— SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER —————————
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
—————————————————————————-
2000 113.0 116.9 120.0 120.9 119.0 118.8 119.8 118.7 116.3 114.5 112.7 112.1
2001 108.7 104.0 104.8 107.5 108.6 109.8 111.7 113.6 114.1 114.0 115.5 114.6
2002 113.5 114.6 113.3 110.5 108.8 106.2 102.7 98.7 94.6 90.5 85.3 82.1
2003 81.0 78.6 74.2 70.4 67.9 65.3 62.1 60.3 59.8 58.4 57.0 55.0
2004 52.1 49.4 47.2 45.6 43.9 41.7 40.2 39.3 37.6 35.9 35.4 35.2
2005 34.6 34.0 33.6 31.7 28.9 28.8 29.1 27.5 25.9 25.6 25.0 23.0
2006 20.8 18.7 17.4 17.1 17.4 16.4 15.3 15.6 15.6 14.2 12.7 12.1
2007 12.0 11.6 10.8 9.9 8.7 7.7 7.0 6.1 5.9 6.1 5.7 5.0
2008 4.2 3.7e 3.7e 4.0e 4.2e 4.1e 3.9e 4.0e 3.9e 3.9e 4.4e 4.9e
2009 5.6e 6.4 4.4 8.3 8.9 9.6 10.7 11.9 13.4 14.7 16.3 18.1
2010 20.2 22.6 25.2 29.6 34.5 39.8 44.2 48.8 53.8 59.4 64.5 68.8
2011 72.8 79.0 85.5 91.3 94.7 98.0 101.4 105.2 109.1 112.6 116.6 120.2
2012 122.4 125.4 127.1 127.9 129.2 130.9 131.8 133.9 134.7 134.7 133.9 131.8
2013 131.3 130.0 130.0 129.6 129.6 130.0 130.0 129.2 129.2 127.9 125.0 122.0
2014 119.3 116.6 113.5 110.0 107.7 105.7 104.1 102.2 100.1 97.4 94.3 89.3
2015 84.2 79.4 76.3 73.5 70.9 68.5 66.0 63.2 60.1 57.7 56.0 55.2
2016 54.3 53.1 51.4 49.1 46.4 43.6 41.3 39.4 37.5 35.3 33.0 30.9
2017 29.2 27.9 26.6 25.3 23.9 22.8 21.8 21.1 20.6 20.0 19.3 18.2
2018 17.3 16.8 16.5 15.9 14.9 14.2 14.1 14.3 14.3 14.0 14.0 14.2
============================================================================
—————– EQUIVALENT 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX ———————
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
—————————————————————————-
2000 162.2 166.2 169.4 170.3 168.3 168.1 169.2 168.0 165.6 163.7 161.9 161.2
2001 157.8 153.0 153.7 156.6 157.7 158.9 160.8 162.8 163.3 163.2 164.8 163.9
2002 162.7 163.9 162.5 159.6 157.9 155.2 151.6 147.6 143.4 139.3 134.1 131.0
2003 129.9 127.6 123.4 119.7 117.4 114.9 112.0 110.4 109.9 108.7 107.4 105.6
2004 103.2 100.8 98.9 97.6 96.2 94.4 93.3 92.5 91.2 89.9 89.5 89.4
2005 88.9 88.4 88.1 86.7 84.7 84.6 84.8 83.6 82.5 82.3 81.9 80.5
2006 79.0 77.6 76.8 76.7 76.8 76.2 75.5 75.7 75.7 74.8 73.9 73.6
2007 73.5 73.3 72.8 72.3 71.6 71.0 70.6 70.1 70.1 70.1 69.9 69.5
2008 69.1 68.9e 68.9e 69.0e 69.1e 69.1e 69.0e 69.0e 69.0e 69.0e 69.2e 69.5e
2009 69.9e 70.3 69.2 71.4 71.7 72.1 72.7 73.4 74.3 75.1 76.1 77.3
2010 78.6 80.2 82.0 85.2 88.8 92.9 96.5 100.3 104.6 109.6 114.2 118.2
2011 122.0 128.0 134.3 140.1 143.5 146.9 150.3 154.2 158.2 161.8 165.9 169.6
2012 171.8 174.9 176.6 177.4 178.8 180.5 181.4 183.5 184.3 184.3 183.5 181.4
2013 180.9 179.6 179.6 179.2 179.2 179.6 179.6 178.8 178.8 177.4 174.5 171.4
2014 168.6 165.9 162.7 159.1 156.8 154.7 153.1 151.1 149.0 146.3 143.1 138.1
2015 133.1 128.4 125.3 122.7 120.2 117.9 115.6 113.0 110.2 108.1 106.5 105.8
2016 105.1 104.0 102.5 100.6 98.3 96.0 94.1 92.6 91.1 89.4 87.7 86.1
2017 84.9 83.9 83.0 82.1 81.1 80.4 79.7 79.2 78.9 78.5 78.0 77.3
2018 76.8 76.4 76.2 75.9 75.2 74.8 74.8 74.9 74.9 74.7 74.7 74.8
============================================================================
This page is updated monthly using observed monthly sunspot numbers from
the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (http://sidc.oma.be). Monthly
values are smoothed using a 13 monthly running filter (first and last half weighting)
and, where needed, combined with a predicted sunspot number curve for Cycle 24.
Values which have an “e” next to them are based partly on observed and partly on
predicted values. Values earlier in time to these are based entirely on
observed valued; values later in time are entirely predicted. Observed
data are adjusted slightly at times to use the SIDC final monthly values
which are available several months later – SIDC preliminary monthly values
are used up to this time.
All Solar Radio Flux values, including the “observed” values, are
obtained from sunspot numbers using a statistical conversion. They are
best described as equivalent solar flux values.
Prepared on behalf of the International Space Environment Service by
the Australian Space Forecast Centre, IPS Radio and Space Services. This
product is issued in the first few days of each month and is available
on the IPS Mailing List Server – http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/
For more information please contact the centre at asfc@ips.gov.au
PLEASE NOTE: The technique used to make these predictions was changed
for the predictions issued from early November 2003. The revised technique
is more appropriate to the situation of a declining solar cycle.
Shouldn’t that be “push… BACK six months”?
[…] Pick up the story on Watts Up With That? ____________________________________ […]
And check out the ozone thinning over the western half of the US!
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/rt/viewdata.php?product=o3_us
What are negative sunspots?
The bottom curve, if fully plotted, goes below the axis.
REPLY: There are no negative sunspots. That is just a graphing issue you see.
“Shouldn’t that be “push… BACK six months”?”
You are forgetting they are “down under”….
REPLY: I suppose its all in how you look at the time line. I view the future as ahead of the present, hence the use of “ahead” in the title of this posting.
Larry Sheldon (20:51:20) “You are forgetting they are “down under”
We are now “down under”. You are looking at the map upside down…
At least the ‘left’ spot has a cycle 24 polarity change. Because of its low latitude it might be a cycle 23 spot with reversed polarity [happens one out of 30 times]. The spots may be too small to be assigned an ‘active region’ number; we shall see tomorrow.
This is almost in the category of anecdotal weather. From looking at the magnetogram image of the sun at the SOHO website, the newest disturbance shows up at the eastern edge of the solar disk; however, it’s not yet showing in the visible image. The longer this minimum holds, the clearer should be any signature as to possible effects on the weather.
I’m just wondering if there’s any change in the power of any of the components of the solar spectrum between an active sun versus a quiet sun. In other words, would the values of visible light, IR, & UV remain the same in relation to each other or would there be changes (up or down) in relation to each other depending on the amount of solar activity (or inactivity)?
Just a thought.
REPLY: The SOHO MDI image hasn’t been updated in awhile, so you can’t really use that as a gauge for development of the sunspot. Thats why I chose the photo from the amatuer solar astronomer. It appeared to be more recent than the SOHO MDI.
It’s “Push forward, pull back, every eleven years.”
Last solar minimum in 1996. Average GISS temperature for 1996 was 0.3.
Bigger solar minimum this time around. And a La Nina (although a quick look at 1996 Nino 3.4 shows coolish). And a switch to cool PDO.
Average GISS temperature for 2008 so far: 0.37.
Although I would be happy to agree that the difference is not necessarily significant and could just as easily be weather noise as CO2 warming. And the year isn’t ended yet either, so the 2008 number will most likely change.
Leif –
Dumb question – both spots are black on the right with white on the left. How do we tell polarity changes, which with latitude I gather is the difference between two cycles?
Mike McMillan (22:10:06) :
both spots are black on the right with white on the left
This was not clear on the [outdated?] image I have, but if so, they are both reversed. That may signal cycle 24 rather that cycle 23.
How do we tell polarity changes, which with latitude I gather is the difference between two cycles?
SC23: Nothern Hemisphere: left black, right white
SC23 Southern Hemisphere: left white, right white
SC24: Northern Hemisphere: left white, right black
SC24: Southern Hemisphere: left black, right while
oops:
SC23: Nothern Hemisphere: left black, right white
SC23 Southern Hemisphere: left white, right black
SC24: Northern Hemisphere: left white, right black
SC24: Southern Hemisphere: left black, right while
Larry Sheldon (20:51:20) . The ‘Wizard of New Zealand ‘ made lots of money selling upside down maps of the world to tourists from the northern hemisphere.
Ocean cooling spreading north?
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.8.21.2008.gif
The IPS is predicting cycle 24 to go higher than 23. The peak for sun spots is 134 instead of 120. The 10.7cm flux prediction is similarly higher: 184 instead of 170. Interesting. — John M Reynolds
Anyone have a link to the running 13-month smoothed minima for sunspots, 10.7 cm flux, and geomagnetic indicies?
Obviously, all hope for the March 2008 minimum is past and August 2008 may well be the next spun minimum. Watch for transequatorial CMEs to tighten and the IMF to exhibit the ‘holding her dress down’ flip to the south.
Leif Svalgaard (21:34:42) :
Oh, that’s a relief – I thought it might mean that cycle 24 was ending before it began! Or that spot was one of the spots on the negative part of the projection. 🙂
Just kidding….
I guess there isn’t much science behind the new prediction as the IPS says that
Gee, I could’ve written that! At least they said “away” instead of “ahead” or “back”.
(Schedulers, at least in the US, refer to pushing back a schedule to mean that there are delays and the project will be late. Same class of idiom as “near miss” meaning it missed or nearly hit.)
Yet another organization as lost as we are and just goin’ along for the ride. Ah well, I’m sure this period will provide plenty of fodder for solar physicists for a couple decades – until the spots fade away in 2015 or so per Livingston/Penn and that distracts everyone.
Usually when one is moving a deadline further into the future it’s moving back. If it’s moving closer to the present it’s moving ahead. It’s odd, but I think of this every time Anthony posts one of these. The article actually says “away” which is less ambiguous, I suppose.
I see that the AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER AGENCY has confirmed what I already projected in the previous track SPOTLESS DAYS -400 AND COUNTING.
Interesting that there now seems to be disagreement over whether these are ‘sunspots’ or ‘proto sunspots’ as SpaceWeather.com has the sunspot count at 11 and NOAA is reporting 0 as of 8/21 http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/sept/swcenter/sunspot.html
No mention from IPS of why they chose 6 months.
I infer that it’s a very crude estimate. I assume the thinking is – solar minimum HAS to be somewhere around now-ish; we don’t know WHY Solar Cycle 24 hasn’t behaved as predicted; our previous forecast clearly ain’t happening; let’s acknowledge that and kick this thing another 6 months down the road and see what happens.
NOAA/NASA so far has not done that. In conjunction with a Space Weather Workshop in May, the panel stood by their (split) forecast
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/index.html
The small sunspot group Anthony referenced above is very interesting. I too have been frustrated by the lack of updated MDI Continuum images on the SOHO website (I emailed the SOHO webmaster to ask if anything is wrong
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/contact/webmaster.html
The photo Anthony posted above from the observer in Slovakia shows a small sunspot group; the observer at Catania
http://web.ct.astro.it/sun/draw.jpg
saw it and drew it yesterday AND today. (other observers yesterday, including Mt Wilson
http://www.astro.ucla.edu/~obs/cur_drw.html
did not see it and did not draw it). The official NOAA reports yesterday listed sunspots as “None.”
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/SRS.txt
So from both Boulder and Brussels,
http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/index.php
the OFFICIAL sunspot number is still ZERO, and the current spotless streak which began July 21 officially goes on, and is at 33 days and counting.
I would be interested in seeing an update to the Observed Geomagnetic Averaged Planetary Index (Ap) graph. I think the last one you posted was on 15-Jun-08:
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/solar-ap-june08.png
Isn’t the geomagnetic index a predictor of sunspot activity?
This is a good picture of the magnetogram: http://www.astro.ucla.edu/~obs/cur_mag_fe1.html
I’ve lost the 10.7MHz image link, can someone post it?
Fred Chabala (06:24:49) :
“I would be interested in seeing an update to the Observed Geomagnetic Averaged Planetary Index (Ap) graph…”
It’s the third chart on this page, updated during the first week of each month –
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/
The “step change” to lower values (mostly below 10) Anthony pointed out in June still has not recovered.