Heat Wave in Portland: Watch for "AGW did it" stories

Portland is one of the “greener” cities in the USA. So it would not be surprising to see some stories blaming the current heat wave on “Global Warming” or “Climate Change”.

It will be interesting to see how they react there in the Portland media to this string of 100 plus days.

PORTLAND, Ore. – Temperatures all over Oregon are expected to shoot past 104 degrees today, making it one of the hottest days in Oregon in years.

KATU Meteorologist Rhonda Shelby said at noon that there is a chance it could get hot enough to break Portland’s all-time heat record of 107 degrees.

full story here at TV station KATU-TV

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Steve Berry
August 16, 2008 2:10 am

Here in England, we haven’t had a summer for two years now. 2007 was awful, and this summer never got off the ground. A week ago people were even putting their heating systems on for a couple of days – unheard of in August! And we had condensation on the inside of our windows for three nights this week – which I’ve never known at this time of year. We’ve only two weeks or so of summer left before the leaves start to turn brown. It’s depressing! We’ve had both low temperatures and lots of rain (lots!). But strangely, looking at the Central England Temperature (CET) data, the figures don’t reflect what everyone’s experiencing.

August 16, 2008 2:29 am

Concord, New Hampshire is 2.4 degrees below normal for the first half of August. This has occurred despite the ocean being warmer than usual to our east. Night-time lows aren’t to blame as much as day-times highs. Lots of cloud-cover, and in half a month we’ve already had 1 1/2 times the usual rain for the entire month of August.
Some summer squash is getting moldy even while growing. This is bad news. It is hard enough to give away a zucchini around here, even when they’re perfect. You leave them on a neighbor’s porch, but don’t ring the doorbell.

Editor
August 16, 2008 4:40 am

Caleb (02:29:33) :
“Some summer squash is getting moldy even while growing. This is bad news. It is hard enough to give away a zucchini around here, even when they’re perfect. You leave them on a neighbor’s porch, but don’t ring the doorbell.”
During the Zucchini Festival in Keene NH, locals lock their cars or else they’re liable to find a dozen zukes when they get back.

M White
August 16, 2008 6:24 am

Early indications for Winter 2008/9
A forecast from the British Met Office issued 10th july, to be updated in September.
“Winter temperatures are more likely to be either near, or above average, than below average over much of the European region. For northern Europe, including the UK, Winter 2008/9 is likely to be less mild than last winter”
“The statistical predictions are based primarily on the influence of North Atlantic Ocean temperatures on European winter climate, and changing expectations for winter due to the CLIMATE WARMING TREND.”
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/winter2008_9/
The AGW science is proven a cold and icy winter seems unthinkable.

Bruce Cobb
August 16, 2008 7:19 am

“So it would not be surprising to see some stories blaming the current heat wave on “Global Warming” or “Climate Change”.”
If it happens it will kind balance out all the “Its a bit nippy today and there are no sunspots, must be a new Little Ice Age” which seems to be the most popular posts of late!

Mary, I see you conveniently conflate stories in the news media, with posts on a blog. Anything for the AGW cause though, right? LOL!

Pamela Gray
August 16, 2008 9:39 am

16 degrees cooler than last year here in Enterprise, and we have a heat wave watch. The nighttime temps are in the 50’s and below. The days are hot.
ozone map (limited view from GOES satellite)
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/rt/viewdata.php?product=o3_us

Patrick Henry
August 16, 2008 10:08 am

M. White,
The Met Office also predicted :
1. A hot summer last year for the UK
2. 2007 to be the warmest year ever globally
3. A typical UK summer for 2008
All three were wrong, and yet they continue to embarrass themselves by spewing more nonsensical GW propaganda.

dearieme
August 16, 2008 10:13 am

“Steve Berry: Here in England, we haven’t had a summer for two years now”. That’s a little harsh, Steve: we had a nice wee touch of summer in February.

Max
August 16, 2008 10:51 am

I can echo what Steve Berry said further up this thread.
Last night the temperature in my part of England was 9 degrees C – in the middle of August.
This morning we were seriously debating if we needed to bring the central heating back on to warm the house up.
Forecast has been for rain pretty much every day this month
But of course, this is weather, not climate.
And my 9 degrees hasn’t been adjusted yet……
Max

C Sanborn
August 16, 2008 11:03 am

I watched the KATU weather video. Meteorologist Rhonda Shelby did not mention when the record temps that were about to be broken were set. According to Wikipedia (Portland, Oregon – Climate) “The highest temperature ever recorded was 42 °C (107 °F), set on July 30, 1965 as well as August 8, 1981 and August 10, 1981.” It was really hot in the mid-60s.

Steve Moore
August 16, 2008 11:06 am

I grew up in Camas, WA (now a Portland bedroom).
The folks around here who chat on about the heat either have short memories or weren’t here in the mid-60’s. As I recall, the summer of ’67 (between my sophomore and junior HS years) set records for consecutive days without rain, consecutive daytime temps over 80, consecutive over 90, and consecutive over 100.
I suppose I’ll have to dig out the records to see if my memory is correct…
Thursday may have hit 103, but the humidity was only 22%. Not bad at all. My 32-mile commute home from Camas to Aloha was almost tolerable (no AC in my Jeep).

Steve Moore
August 16, 2008 11:16 am

OMG
I just went looking for records and found this:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/jan/jan-dailyext2007.html
Take a look at the box for January 1, 2007.
Maybe this explains part of the problem with the surface record?

Steve Moore
August 16, 2008 12:05 pm

OMG, Part 2:
According to this, Vancouver is in Oregon as well…
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2006/nov/novemberext2006.html

Scott Walker
August 16, 2008 12:14 pm

I live about twelve miles south of Portland, in the quiet town of Gladstone, Oregon. I only started picking tomatoes two weeks ago, due to a very chilly Spring and early Summer. So let’s have more of that AGW. I can’t can tomatoes if they’re all freaking green by September!

David
August 16, 2008 12:21 pm

Additional European perspective, here in Belgium we have actually kept the heating on in our offices (old stone buildings, oriented north), before moving there we thought of air conditioning it for the summer, now we just heat nearly all year round:)

Pamela Gray
August 16, 2008 3:07 pm

Clouds have now appeared directly in the spot where the ozone had thinned considerably over the last week. They even have the same spotty look to them that the ozone layer had. I checked the water vapor level earlier and there was water vapor available before the clouds appeared. Probably coincidence but I will keep checking from now on to see if it happens again. Wish the GOES satellite website included global ozone maps.

Evan Jones
Editor
August 16, 2008 7:03 pm

Is that an icecap in the background of the picture?

Evan Jones
Editor
August 16, 2008 7:05 pm

Additional European perspective, here in Belgium we have actually kept the heating on in our offices (old stone buildings, oriented north), before moving there we thought of air conditioning it for the summer, now we just heat nearly all year round:)
I wonder if the Stevenson Screen or MMTS is located right next to one of those heated buildings . . .

Mary Hinge
August 17, 2008 5:21 am

Steve Perry – “But strangely, looking at the Central England Temperature (CET) data, the figures don’t reflect what everyone’s experiencing.”
Will you please stop putting this sensationalistic conspirital guff on the blogs. The fact the rain has been more persistant (and not the usual heavy summer showers) shows there is a lot more cloud and this means warmer nights. All thats happened in the last two summers is the jet stream is a lot further south than it usually is, you can see this nicely on the SST map of the Atlantic where the increased cloud and wind have produced a cooling anomoly probably as a result of the recent La Nina. http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.8.14.2008.gif
This kind of summer is not that unusual and is part of Britains rich meteorological history (nice to see the Ozzy’s getting cold weather, about time too!)

Stewart
August 17, 2008 6:41 am

“1. A hot summer last year for the UK
2. 2007 to be the warmest year ever globally
3. A typical UK summer for 2008
All three were wrong, and yet they continue to embarrass themselves by spewing more nonsensical GW propaganda.”
And after every single embarassing forecast screw-up they employ revisionism and get backed up by climate scientists. Meteorologists stay silent.

Mary Hinge
August 17, 2008 9:51 am

Stewart (06:41:35) :
“1. A hot summer last year for the UK
2. 2007 to be the warmest year ever globally
3. A typical UK summer for 2008
All three were wrong, and yet they continue to embarrass themselves by spewing more nonsensical GW propaganda.”
Comrade Stewart-
Some points to quell your revolutionary fires against those that conspire against us (don’t forget your tin foil cap…they could be listening!Your points:
1- Where did you get ‘hot’ summer from, it was however warmer than average last year.
2- based on surface temperatures 2007 was either the warmest or second warmest, still very warm compared to average.
3- Typical UK summer- UK covers N. Ireland Scotland and Wales so is a broad spread but it is very typical I’m afraid. The south east of England has had a few good spells of weather whilst the north and, especially the west, has had slightly below average temperatures but higher rainfall than average.
The UK is in many ways a specialcase, it is influenced by weather from the Arctic, the Atlantic and contuinental europe as well as warm water from the Gulf Stream and the ending point of the jet stream. If a high pressure system is in the wrong place and sticks, then this spell of weather stays around for a while, described as the low pressure cannon elswehere in this blog.
ie…Its normal!!

Steve Berry
August 18, 2008 2:19 am

Mary. 2007 was NOT the warmest, or even the second warmest – in fact, you’re not even close! 1998 was warmest, followed by 2005, then 2003, then 2002, then 2004, then 2006, then 2001, and finally we get to 2007. 2008 will almost certainly be cooler still.
As for the UK, 2006 was warmest, then 1990 and 1999, then 1949, then 2002, then 1997, then 1995, then 1989 and 2003, then 1959, 2004 and 2007. So please desist from posting such stuff on the internet.
As for this year’s UK “warmer nights”, I laughed so much I knocked my warming cocoa over. Warmer nights!!! It’s been the evenings and nights that have been so cool – that’s why condensation has occurred on the inside of windows, and heating systems have sprung into action by themselves when air thermostats have kicked in. My point anyway, was that the CET figures don’t reflect this cooling, suggesting urban island heat effect on the recording stations. Where I live – in the south of England and away from an urban area – the temperature has been very cool for July and August. Yet the CET shows 16.2 degrees C for July. But certainly not feeling like it at all.
And Stewart is correct. The UK most certainly has not had a “typical summer” at all. I think I may have a few years on you, and “typical” is a few hot days and then a storm – that’s the norm for all the decades I’ve been here. The Met Office did indeed forecast a hot summer 2007. I was arguing that point on a blog back then with very many others. Even those who were pro-warming were admitting that the Met had got it wrong, but said that they couldn’t have foreseen the Jet Stream movement. So Stewart is completely correct on all three points. I think you owe him an apology.

Mary Hinge
August 18, 2008 8:45 am

Steve- [snip] To help you back to the path of sanity away from conspiracies:
“GISS Surface Temperature Analysis
Global Temperature Trends: 2007 Summation
The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a remarkable 0.2°C above the prior record with the help of the “El Niño of the century”. The unusual warmth in 2007 is noteworthy because it occurs at a time when solar irradiance is at a minimum and the equatorial Pacific Ocean is in the cool phase of its natural El Niño-La Niña cycle.
From the Met Office
“July 2008
Mean temperatures ranged from close to average across SW England and S Wales to over 1 deg C above average across Scotland. Rainfall was generally above or well above average across Northern Ireland, England and Wales, but close to average across East Anglia. Rainfall over Scotland ranged from below average across the north-west to above average across the south-east. Sunshine was generally close to average across the UK.”
And finally ladies and gentlemen the mean temperatures for the British summer of 2007: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2007/summer/maps/TMean_Anomaly%20No%20Stations.jpg
These are the facts [snip]

Steve Berry
August 18, 2008 11:37 am

Mary. [snip ad hom] I see you were referring to GISS!!! Ah, that will be where you’re going wrong then Mary. You are British, yes? Yet you choose GISS. Now, why could that be? Umm. Errr. Ah, I see now.
I see you didn’t back up your “warmer nights” with anything. Noted by everyone, I’m sure. And neither did you apologise to Stewart either.
Now, for the UK and climate change. Yes, I like facts too. Do you remember what was said? “The UK can expect hotter, drier summers, and wetter winters”. Mary, reading between your rather amusing lines and comments on conspiracies, I’m picking up that sometimes, just sometimes, you may visit the Met Office’s web site. Am I right, Mary? You get your warming figures from GISS, but your UK temps from the Met. Is that right Mary? Why again? Oh yes, I remember. Nasty old HadCrut. Anyhoo…next time take a look at the chart for summer and winter precipitation (that’s rain, Mary). What will you see there? What you’ll see is a complete reversal of that predicted. Since 1980, rainfall has increased in summer, and decreased in winter. No need of a conspiracy, Mary. It’s all there for you to read. If you cannot, then ask your teacher to read it out to the class.

Steve Berry
August 18, 2008 12:02 pm

Oh, and I forgot to add that June 2007 was the wettest June ever recorded in central England. But wait…I’ve just heard that August is the wettest on record so far. But I will check that. Strange, isn’t it, Mary, when we were supposed to get “hotter, drier summers”?